2020 New York Redistricting

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Yeah, it's really hard to draw a Trump district in that part of the central valley anyways; you'd be going very far out of your way to make either of NY-17 or NY-18 Safe D.

I don't think Molinaro would have a Trump district under this proposal. He probably gets something like Biden +2 compared to his current Biden +5.

Oh wait sorry I got Molinaro and Lawler mixed up

- Yeah there's no real incentive to make Molinaro a more favorable district especially since you can't really use his district to make Stefanik's district competitive and NY-22 can get bluer without Ithaca, but I'd argue the current config of NY-19 is pretty good for Dems as is.

I mean they’re shoring him up to help out Pat Ryan next door. But they can always swap out the rural counties in the west of NY-19 for Rensselaer County, which offsets any of the changes made with NY-18 and brings it back to its current partisanship.

[Tekken_Guy]

A “soft” gerrymander I drew. If I were a Dem on the commission, I’d offer this as a compromise and threaten the Hochulmander if Republicans declined this map.

Instead of going full NC-GOP on them, R incumbents are instead given the Don Davis treatment, where they are given tougher but not totally unwinnable seats.

-Suffolk county has a west-east divide instead of the north-south one on the current map, giving us a seats that Biden and Trump each won by mid single digits rather than two seats that were tied in 2020. Garbarino would likely run in the eastern seat, which is Trump+7. He was pretty much safe before and he’s even safer now. LaLota would probably run in the western seat which is Biden+7, which, while not the Likely R seat he has now, is probably no worse than a toss-up for him.
-Nassau is left mostly untouched outside of a few boundary swaps at the southeastern border. Suozzi won’t need shoring up since he won decisively on Tuesday, and D’Esposito gets to keep his 2022 seat.
-Malliotakis gets a tougher seat but unlike the Biden+10 she got on the Hochulmander, she gets a Biden+1 seat that still goes to Park Slope but doesn’t go all the way up to Gowanus and instead holds some of the redder areas like Dyker Heights. She’ll probably win re-election in 2024 in this seat, but is vulnerable in a bad year for Republicans.
-Bowman is left unchanged to please Latimer’s allies on the commission.
-Lawler is left unchanged and is in for a pure toss-up race.
-Pat Ryan is shored up as he gets all of Ulster in his seat in exchange for dropping some of the redder parts of Orange County.
-Molinaro benefits from the trade off with Ryan as he sheds parts of Ulster for Orange, but this is offset by trading off some western rurals for parts of Rensselaer County, keeping the seat at similar partisanship to the current one.
-Williams goes from Biden+7 to Biden+10 as the red rural parts of Oneida County are exchanged for some blue towns like Oneonta, Cooperstown, Cortland, and Auburn.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ya'll are acting surprised that NY Ds made a corrupt bargain. It's New York, corruption is in their blood, and it's the same party that gave the world Andrew Cuomo and Kathy Hochul, and the IDC.

If the Democrats were willing to surrender that easily there would never have been a Hochulmander.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone have the DRA for this?

[Tekken_Guy]

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

No it is not. The legislature will reject it.

[Tekken_Guy]

The 2% rule is the biggest hurdle for Dems here.

What is this 2% rule? Whatever it is, if it is a problem, then I would think the supermajority legislature should simply change it.

If the legislature wants to modify the commission plan, it can't deviate more than 2% pop. for any given district.

But Democrats can always reject the first map, and then the second map, and then pass their own if they have a 2/3rd majority.

The 2% rule is only statutory and not included in the original constitutional amendment so it can be repealed easily. The problem is the constitution prohibits partisan intent in redistricting, so the case could be made that repealing the rule to draw more favorable maps is partisan intent. Dems could adjust the rule from 2 to say 5 or 10% rather than repealing it or just follow the rule and shift what seats they can 2% to the left.

Unless there's any reason to think the court will strike a gerrymander down, I don't think Democrats will care. Dems have the 3 dissenters and the new judge.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e04f3c40-a052-4df0-9149-2ef3ad95530f

How does this as a “soft” gerrymander look?

NY-01: Trump+6.8
NY-02: Biden+6.2
NY-03: Biden+8.1
NY-04: Biden+14.4
NY-11: Biden+0.6
NY-17: Biden+11.3
NY-18: Biden+11.1
NY-19: Biden+5.8
NY-22: Biden+11.3

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e04f3c40-a052-4df0-9149-2ef3ad95530f

How does this as a “soft” gerrymander look?

NY-01: Trump+6.8
NY-02: Biden+6.2
NY-03: Biden+8.1
NY-04: Biden+14.4
NY-11: Biden+0.6
NY-17: Biden+11.3
NY-18: Biden+11.1
NY-19: Biden+5.8
NY-22: Biden+11.3

It sure seems like Democrats are setting the groundwork for Staten Island-Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn Chinatown-Manhattan Chinatown districts, so I would maybe switch 10 and 11 for that.

Yeah that would make sense for a “hard” gerrymander but not this soft one.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/nydems/status/1758287925144703009?t=a2WI36TEdR3pZeiBJyuPrA&a...

Lol it's so dead.

This guy is slime, but he knows he's slime, and knows what he needs to do to keep people happy and himself in a job.

What a pathetic statement from someone who is killing fair maps.

Why should New York have to play by the rules when North Carolina and Texas can gerrymander to their heart’s desire?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/nydems/status/1758287925144703009?t=a2WI36TEdR3pZeiBJyuPrA&a...
Lol it's so dead.

This guy is slime, but he knows he's slime, and knows what he needs to do to keep people happy and himself in a job.

What a pathetic statement from someone who is killing fair maps.

Why should New York have to play by the rules when North Carolina and Texas can gerrymander to their heart’s desire?

because their constitution explicitly bans partisan gerrymander, while NC/TX did not.

Well depends on how hackish the judges are feeling.

[Tekken_Guy]

Downside of that map is Jones didn't want to be forced into a primary with Bowman in 2022 so may feel the same now.

Lawler would probably try his luck in Pat Ryan's seat.

I doubt it.  Back then Jones did polling and found Bowman easily beating him.  That is not going to be the case this time around.  And Ryan would wipe the floor with Lawler

Who challenges Bowman from the mainstream wing of the party then?

Andrea Stewart-Cousins will be almost 75 so I doubt she runs.

[Tekken_Guy]

IMO everytime Dave posts a hypothetical NY he thinks the 2022 actions are guidelines for the most desirable outcome of presentactors. Which is a very fallacious since almost half the incumbents from that cycle have been replaced with new ones, changing the calculations at a most basic level.  

Like every NY-03 that was attempted back then crossed into Westchester cause Suozzi was out and the Legislators wanted Biaggi in. That's now been entirely reversed.  Or NY-22, which we just saw a good idea of what could be the final lines. Every Dem map then needed ithica to unseat Katko, ideally by bringing back Brindisi, but once he was gone Dems could afford to spread around the cities. And now the Legislators want John Mannion as well there, so the district goes westwards to follow his old senate seat.

Also there is zero chance they are screwing over Pat Ryan.

[Tekken_Guy]

IMO everytime Dave posts a hypothetical NY he thinks the 2022 actions are guidelines for the most desirable outcome of presentactors. Which is a very fallacious since almost half the incumbents from that cycle have been replaced with new ones, changing the calculations at a most basic level.  

Like every NY-03 that was attempted back then crossed into Westchester cause Suozzi was out and the Legislators wanted Biaggi in. That's now been entirely reversed.  Or NY-22, which we just saw a good idea of what could be the final lines. Every Dem map then needed ithica to unseat Katko, ideally by bringing back Brindisi, but once he was gone Dems could afford to spread around the cities. And now the Legislators want John Mannion as well there, so the district goes westwards to follow his old senate seat.

Also there is zero chance they are screwing over Pat Ryan.

This won't happen but you wonder if Molinaro would run in NY-18 with Dutchess and Ryan in NY-19 with Ulster instead of the other way around.

Map is not completely horrible with a few minor changes. Williams and Lawler would be finished and 11 probably leans D. Giving Ryan a slightly bluer district might be enough with his incumbency edge and putting Ithaca in 19 can sink Molinaro. Dems in an average year open seat would have a shot at 2 and a 2018 wave is likely 23-3.

Also having the one Suffolk based Biden seat being a WWC South Shore seat is a bad idea for Dems IMO.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Suozzi/Garbarino trade off is just Massapequa for North Amityville, as I suspect, that should get Suozzi up to Biden+10.

Also wonder if the Molinaro trade off comes at Ryan’s expense and drops the latter back down to a single-digit margin? Or they go bold and have him take in more of Rensselaer or even Albany?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1762302629512622187

This is also more than 2%.

I doubt Felder would approve of any map that benefits Bowman.

He didn’t care in 2022.

Felder is an orthodox Jew and very pro-Israel he just voted for the IRC maps today being the only Dem to do so. I'd say there is a lot of work to be done to get him in the fold.

Then why didn’t he vote down the maps in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is there a reason they won’t go for a Hochulmander again after they were so willing to do it last time?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/asinmarx/status/1762538171009569041?s=46

Not only is none of this substantiated, as the user in question appears to be some literal rando, but 2/3 of the villains listed don't make any sense.

Regarding Suozzi: shoring up his seat was always in the cards. What happened on Long Island in 2022 basically necessitated a more conservative strategy, as we lost literal double digit Biden seats in an embarrassing rout. In terms of which seat to shore up, NY-04 being Biden +15 means that such a GOP win could be excused as the result of midterm dynamics (POC base didn't turn out, GOP wave with Whites in the state) that won't be in place for 2024. NY-03 does not have this luxury, as its a way more white seat that's only Biden +7; a shore up was practically one of the few requirements of the map (especially with his return to congress).

Regarding Latimer: It should be pretty clear from the district map that he had very little, if any, influence on the map's proceedings. The only change NY-16 witnessed was in picking a different AA area in the Bronx over another AA area in the Bronx. The general consensus is that such a move was done to help Bowman, so theoretically if you want to blame anyone (though the true blame should rest with the NY State Assembly having cold feet), it should go to Bowman.

Suozzi being shored up through Huntington rather than Queens mean that LaLota got a small boost.

Latimer wanting to keep as many white Westchester Dems as possible to beat Bowman meant that NY-17 stays Biden+10 and winnable for Lawler.

[Tekken_Guy]

I still have a hunch this is all a smokescreen like the “fair” Florida legislature-drawn maps of 2022 were for the DeSantismander.

[Tekken_Guy]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

Because Latimer’s demand to get as many white liberals as possible in his district make it harder to flip NY-17. The general consensus is that Lawler has a very good chance at winning re-election under the current lines because of Rockland’s exploding orthodox population (unlike D’Esposito or Williams who are widely seen as goners).

[Tekken_Guy]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

[Tekken_Guy]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

Could definitely backfire on them. Imagine they go for a Hochulmander, it gets tossed out instead in favor of keeping the special master maps, and Trump gets a trifecta because Brandon Williams wins re-election by 100 votes.

[Tekken_Guy]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

Could definitely backfire on them. Imagine they go for a Hochulmander, it gets tossed out instead in favor of keeping the special master maps, and Trump gets a trifecta because Brandon Williams wins re-election by 100 votes.

Imagine Trump gets a trifecta because NY Dems brought a water balloon to a gun fight …

A 221-214 R house with LaLota, Malliotakis, Lawler, and Molinaro all winning?

[Tekken_Guy]

They shouldn’t need to concede NY-17, it still swung left from 2016 to 2020 even with the Orthodox.

Also are they trying to nudge Ryan towards picking a rematch with Molinaro so that Skoufis can run in the 18th? Why else does this map’s 18th take in LESS of Ulster County?

The core blue towns of Ulster like Kingston and New Paltz are all in the 18th still.

[Tekken_Guy]

Are they going to vote on it though without seeing the Senate's map? I still can't believe that they'd let this map pass. I don't have a lot of faith in NY Dems but this really strains a lot of common sense here

People seem to be forget the 4-3 ruling in 2022 was for a special master and striking down the Hochulmander was 5-2. Which means the current majority is still anti-Hochulmander.