2020 New York Redistricting

[Torie]

Well, it will be interesting if Dems go for the 23-3 and someone challenges on the "favoring one party" rule. That would seem to have potential if all of the others (including compactness) will be easy to avoid.

I am working on a map that would give the Dems the best objective function given the constraints. It is not easy. But I suspect that the objective function will have to cede to the Pubs 4 seats, with some more in a bad year a tad vulnerable. In other news, my former (I changed my principal residence to Hoboken - I live in Jersey now, where the garbage meets the sea, can you imagine?) Congressman, Delgado (NY-19)  is running hard, as if he thinks that assuming an easy ride is stuck on stupid, and he's right. I think I have received about 5 meet and greet offers from him in the last month via email.

There is no universe where conceding 4 seats makes even a modicum of sense here

Thanks for sharing.

[Torie]

Are those the rules for the commission, or for any districts drawn? I assume gerrymanders assume the legislature ignores the commission with a supermajority vote.

I asked the same question to myself, and they appear to be the law, that all must follow, until such time as the Constitution is changed. There was talk of that, but I think that is by the boards now due to covid, resignation and the general chaos that is out there in the Empire State.

Drawing illegal maps, or very probably illegal maps, or assuming somewhat partisan courts are the functional equivalent of Jim Jordon, or Cori Bush, or even MTG being the one person court, seems all the rage, both here and on RRH. Resistance is futile. I have basically given up. I just get attacked as a clueless dirt bag attorney just lawyering it up and sh*t posting.

The Florida redistricting amendment has these same rules but it doesn’t look like that will stop Republicans from passing a gerrymander there, does it?

That is an assumption, and if that is the law, probably a false one, if the Pubs are not careful. Florida however is a self packing state by and large, in a way NYS is not in many places. I was vaguely aware of that rule in Florida, and knew doing Florida would be a lot of work. Doing maps with legal constraints requires effort, a lot of effort.

[Torie]

Here is the NY CD map that most probably will survive court challenge. The Pubs get 5 seats, assuming Katko hangs around. In other than a bad Dem election cycle, the Dems should pick up the Katko seat when he retires. That CD almost perfectly nests into Madison, Oneida and Onondaga counties. It draws itself. The Stefanick seat becomes more marginal. The 21 Dem seats are all quite safe. The NYC population gains above expectations “solved” the Dem challenges in the care and feeding (except for AOC whose district has moved to south Brooklyn) of all the Dem incumbents quite nicely. It was a stretch, but I even got Kiryas Joel into the Sean Maloney seat.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/420ea1ef-0497-42c4-9886-660076da64cf

[Torie]

In answer to the above, the NYS Constitution does not define what "contiguous" means, nor is there any case law that I know of, as to whether a bridge or ferry or tunnel is need for contiguity as opposed to mere water. I suspect there is no such requirement, but surely it is favored, but in this case I think it is more than counterbalanced by the inconvenience. It could be done without upsetting the apple cart, but would require some more chops, in order to avoid some degrading of minority representation  concerns.

I like I like this version of my map which giggles the lines Upstate. It minimizes the change in the lines of NY-18, 19, 20, and 26, with the big switch of Dem Ulster County from NY-19, to NY-18. NY-19 of course gets Binghamton and Ithaca in recompense, plus losing heavily Pub Schoharie and half of Montgomery in exchange for marginal Cortland County as a bonus.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7d8ff4b0-ff10-4706-90a4-d5b47fa16369



Here is a version that puts a bridge across the waters into NY-03, making it a four county wonder.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3014ea93-0628-4654-ac9b-7ee2200c2d60



Here is one more fascinating little factlet. Because I took cognizance of the existing lines, I was  able to calculate easily what share of the loss of one seat in the state was absorbed by downstate versus upstate. And the answer is - the anticipation builds - is that downstate lost 30.5% of a seat, and upstate lost 69.5%.

[Torie]

Thank you for your legal brief. My only comment is that as you know one cannot pass a mere statute that violates the NYS Constitution, and the language that constrains the Dems from going utterly wild is in the NYS Constitution, and second to amend the Constitution requires approval by the voters in a referendum.

[Torie]

Thank you for your legal brief. My only comment is that as you know one cannot pass a mere statute that violates the NYS Constitution

Ordinarily one cannot. However, this amendment says "subject to the requirements of the federal constitution and statutes." The question is what "statutes" refers to. One reading is that it refers to Federal statutes. Another reading is that it refers to State statutes. You seem to be assuming/prefer that it refers to Federal statutes (which is certainly plausible, since it clearly refers to the Federal Constitution right before). But it could also be referring to state states (or both state and Federal statutes), in which case it would be similar to amendments of the U.S. Constitution that grant Congress power to enforce the amendment "by appropriate legislation." So which interpretation is better? You got dueling interpretations, dueling lawyers, I'm just asking questions, etc. In this case, this State constitutional Amendment could be similarly granting the New York state legislature to enforce the amendment "by appropriate legislation," i.e. by a state statute. And that state statute could say "you may/can/must draw a 26-0 Dem gerrymander" or whatnot.

Of course, I am not arguing this in good faith, but it is highly unusual in contemporary times for lawyers to argue things in good faith. Because, you know, the war of all against all.

, and the language that constrains the Dems from going utterly wild is in the NYS Constitution, and second to amend the Constitution requires approval by the voters in a referendum.

I mean, according to King George III New York could not set up a constitutional convention and become independent of Great Britain. But if you set up a constitutional convention, you can have a new Constitution. Or just change an amendment to the previous constitution (if that were even necessary, which it isn't, there are plenty of more parsimonious ways to get around these restrictions, such as by saying that they only apply if a commission actually draws the maps). Legitimate democratic (small d) power ultimately doesn't derive from any written document, it derives from the consent of the governed. Previous generations don't have a legitimate right to lock in failing governmental systems which are incapable of dealing with contemporary problems by imposing fake supermajority requirements if the current/future generation does not consent to that.

Sometimes lawyers get suck cases. It's not your fault. However, the words "federal constitution and statutes ," clearly when it comes to what statutes it refers to, means federal statutes. e.g. the VRA. The idea of having a state constitution provision that provides for a state statute to trump it, would be at once fascinating, novel and yes - nonsensical.

[Torie]

And here is a map that should be close to bullet proof legally for the Dems, although it leaves NY-17 in an uncomfortably marginal state for them. And it forces Delgado in NY-19 to either move across the river the Reinbeck, or run while not living in his district, which is legal. But then the law states that districts cannot be drawn to  favor one party, or favor incumbents. If the Dems don't go here, this map might be the Pub map for litigation purposes. Games were played on Long Island to favor the Dems, but they are defensible games. Unite the north and south shores of Long Island baby. In a court room, always have talking points with traction, always. More analysis will be forthcoming in due course, and when finished, "published."

[Torie]

My NYS CD project is now complete. Commentary will be added to this post in due course, including a chart of the Trump 2020 numbers as to both the existing CD’s and the new ones.  If the Dems go for more, the Pubs should have a lawsuit of considerable merit. We shall see.

[Torie]

There are definitely improvements that can be made to that map without causing any chance of any issues. Three easy ones come to mind immediately:

1. Greene County goes into NY-21. Then push NY-18 and NY-20 a bit further north along the Hudson (there are more Dems in Saratoga County to mop up, e.g.). Also, NY-20 will definitely stretch to include Amsterdam in Montgomery County because Paul Tonko lives there.
2. Tioga County goes into NY-23. NY-21 then takes more (maybe all) of Jefferson County, and NY-19 pushes a bit more into Otsego County, where there are more Democratic areas in the center of the county for it to pick up.
3. Push NY-17 down the Hudson in Westchester instead of into Mount Pleasant. Mount Pleasant beyond Sleepy Hollow is the most Republican part of Westchester and should be left in NY-16, but Irvington, Dobbs Ferry, etc. are very Democratic. This could be worth as much as +0.5 in D partisanship for a very minor change.

There's another potential improvement, too, which adds county splits but which I don't think would run afoul of constitutional issues, which is putting the city of Auburn in NY-22 while slicing off parts of Oneida County in exchange and rejiggering NY-21 and 23 to compensate. The Onondaga-Madison-Oneida district is very neat but is not constitutionally mandated.

Finally, I don't think it's even worth discussing the NYC districts because what you've proposed (eliminating AOC's majority Hispanic seat in favor of establishing a majority white seat in SW Brooklyn) will never, ever happen, and would almost certainly be ruled unconstitutional by the Court of Appeals.

Draw your own map, and see what you get. And if you publish it, I will opine how vulnerable it is to legal challenge, with which opinion you will probably disagree, and then off to court we go. Ha!


Below btw is a comparison of the existing NY-14 as compared to the one I drew for your viewing pleasure.

[Torie]

Here are two versions of the maps designed to minimize legal risk for a Dem gerrymander. I am fairly confident whatever map the Dems adopt will end up in court, because I don’t think they will be satisfied with the partisan numbers.

Vers 1:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/eb0e1a1d-e0c3-41c5-a4c1-96a74d233e3a

Vers 2:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/68ffaa54-5b75-4cc7-920c-75249cc4bdd7

Zoom of downstate (same for both versions):



And here is a chart that incorporates the Trump 2020 results, and the PVI’s, the difference from the existing CD figures, and seat result projections for 2022, based on the Dems losing nationally perhaps 15 House seats or so, and perhaps up to 20 seats, and at least 10 seats.

 

If anyone has any questions I will try to answer them. If not, that’s OK too.

[Torie]

If anyone has any questions I will try to answer them. If not, that’s OK too.

How did you get the 2020 results, those are not on DRA I thought? Or are they?

A friend processed the data from shape files.

[Torie]

If anyone has any questions I will try to answer them. If not, that’s OK too.

How did you get the 2020 results, those are not on DRA I thought? Or are they?

A friend processed the data from shape files.

I wonder when DRA looks likely to add 2020 election data for NY...

The main takeaway for me personally would be Staten Island.

Why so?

If memory serves me correct, Staten Island is roughly 7% in favor of the GOP in the 2012/2016 data. I want to see how blood red southern SI got in 2020.

Aaaaah. I see. Yeah. Staten Island was R+6.83 iirc, on 2012/2016. 2016/2020 should have a bigger R+ PVI. Of course that could be calculated easily.
I think it should be in the ballpark of R+7.85 or something like that.

Oh ye of so little faith in the Torie man, heal thyself. You see, in the portion of NY-11 outside Richmond (Staten Island), the Pubs are about as popular as the Taliban. Using the 2020 results for Richmond, and then breaking that out from the total, and looking at the 2012-2016 composite election results as compared to the 2020 results, show that the numbers are plausible. In fact, they are not only plausible but almost absolutely accurate (error is introduced by slitting precincts by a de minimus amount), since the numbers tie together with the stateside totals.



One other thing of interest is that NY-14 as I drew it, moved 5 points of PVI to Trump 2020, from the 2012-2016 composite partisan numbers (a 10% change in the 2-party margin), even after I made it more Dem friendly, by adding nearly all Dem Windsor Terrace to it along with some adjacent Pub hating precincts, plus of course Coney Island. After all of that, I was still only able to get it to about a 1% Dem PVI, and thus since AOC will not be running there, it will be an open seat, and a tossup in not all that great a year for the Dems it looks like, in the 2022 cycle.  The Dems won't like that.  Thus the odds are high that whatever the Dems pass is going to court. NY-17 is another potential flash point, with a member of "the squad" representing it. It should be an action packed ride, and thus my "unusually high" interest in the state.

[Torie]

I will mark you down Mr. Phips as a member in good standing of the partisan high courts are Hack City club, and just laugh at enforcing provisions that are sitting there in the NYS State Constitution to the effect that districts must not be drawn to favor one party or incumbents and must be compact. I am less cynical personally. We shall see.

The NYS high court is called the Appeals Court, Appellate Division by the way. Yes, I know, it's annoying.

[Torie]

I'm waiting to see the changes which occurred to Borough Park, Kiryas Joel, and those other Ultra-Orthodox Jewish areas when the 2020 Presidential results come out (supposedly they swung hard Trump). They could have big effects due to their fast population growth and the immense margins they vote for Republicans by.

Even if they aren't all voting-age yet, they grow exponentially each decade and could cause some political shifts.

They did, which is most irritating for the Dems when it comes to drawing NY-14 and NY-17 given the constraints of geography and the most inconvenient provisions in the NYS Constitution. It certainly proved inconvenient for me, as I searched for the best objective function to get the Dems out of the box, with only mixed success.

[Torie]

I will mark you down as a member in good standing that partisan high courts on Hack City, and just laugh at enforcing provisions like districts must not be drawn to favor one party or incumbents and must be compact. I am less cynical personally. We shall see.

If Republican hack judges in North Carolina and Florida are going to allow Republicans to ignore the Fair Districts Amendment in Florida (I.e. cutting out St Pete from Pinellas county and sticking it in with Tampa) and judicial precedent in North Carolina (I.e. sticking Durham in the 1st district and cutting up Guilford county), I think the hack Dem judges in New York will have no choice but to return the favor.

More proof that you are part of the club!  I will pray for you. I don't think those courts are going to be Hack City either. So many "illegal" maps being drawn, so little time. You should see some of the Pubmanders drawn on RRH. Oh my. 

[Torie]

I will mark you down as a member in good standing that partisan high courts on Hack City, and just laugh at enforcing provisions like districts must not be drawn to favor one party or incumbents and must be compact. I am less cynical personally. We shall see.

If Republican hack judges in North Carolina and Florida are going to allow Republicans to ignore the Fair Districts Amendment in Florida (I.e. cutting out St Pete from Pinellas county and sticking it in with Tampa) and judicial precedent in North Carolina (I.e. sticking Durham in the 1st district and cutting up Guilford county), I think the hack Dem judges in New York will have no choice but to return the favor.

More proof that you are part of the club!  I will pray for you. I don't think those courts are going to be Hack City either. So many "illegal" maps being drawn, so little time. You should see some of the Pubmanders drawn on RRH. Oh my. 

Believe me, I’ve seen the 20-8 FL, 10-4 GA, and 10-4 NC maps that Krazan thinks they can draw.  If those happen, NY is going to have to fight fire by going 23-3 rather than something more reasonable like 20-6.

You think Krazan is "on top" of the subtleties* of the law?

*Gingles clearly requires 5 performing black CD's in Georgia.

[Torie]

Both versions appear to be miserable fails at first glance. They don't even make a whole lot of sense from a partisan perspective, and may have some VRA violation potential (not sure about that one yet). Whatever these crazies finally adopt will  of course be going to court, and we will find out the hack quotient of the NYS highest court.

[Torie]

No congressperson anywhere needs to live in the district. States may not impose their on qualifications to serve in federal office.

[Torie]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

[Torie]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

[Torie]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

I stand corrected. My google search unearthed stale data. Thanks. But the Dems have no margin for error, if Felder is really a Pub. Just like the US Senate! The Assembly is tight too. We live in interesting times. That said, I don't understand the Dem map. Something is going on behind the curtain. And it is sad the Dems are so intent in tanking Katko, who is one of my favorite politicians, Pub or otherwise. And I like Delgado too, who seems to potentially have been thrown under the bus, by someone.

I guess that you are assuming that the NYS Supremes are hack city. Is that correct?

[Torie]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

To your point about the NYS constitution and court of appeals, I believe that Oregon has a similar constitutional requirement which is not going to matter due to a combination of a 7-0 D court and the ineptitude of the state Republican Party. I believe the court of appeals is 6-1 D, so it wouldn't shock me if they, too, turn a blind eye or convince themselves it's kosher, although all the justices were appointed by Cuomo (who confusingly appointed a Republican for some reason?) so honestly who knows.

Thank you. For those justices who are competent and ethical, I just can't see it, and Oregon was far more subtle than the gymnastics than what the NYS Supremes (the appellate division of the appellate court) would need to go through to get to a 21-5 map, and, oh yes, if Oregon has that law, surely someone has sued, so we don't know the outcome of that yet. If nobody sued yet, I have to question your interpretation of the law.

[Torie]

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.

The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

I stand corrected. My google search unearthed stale data. Thanks. But the Dems have no margin for error, if Felder is really a Pub. Just like the US Senate! The Assembly is tight too. We live in interesting times. That said, I don't understand the Dem map. Something is going on behind the curtain. And it is sad the Dems are so intent in tanking Katko, who is one of my favorite politicians, Pub or otherwise. And I like Delgado too, who seems to potentially have been thrown under the bus, by someone.

I guess that you are assuming that the NYS Supremes are hack city. Is that correct?

Let’s put it this way, I don’t believe a court made up of a majority of appointees of a governor of one party is going to overturn a gerrymander by that party.  It’s not going to happen here and it’s not going to happen in Florida.  

Wouldn’t Delgado be in the U district?  What are the 2020 presidential results on that?

Yes he lives in the NW corner of Dutchess County in Reinbeck, and I guess it is Mondaire Jones
who is thrown under the bus, his CD essentially erased, with that CD that is tilt Pub an open seat, because for the Dems to squeeze out another seat upstate, particularly with Katko in the mix,  needed everything Dem everywhere within reach to execute him, including the Dem  jewel, Tompkins County. So Jones takes the hit with the loss of an upstate seat due to census data, but the Dems get it back by executing Katko, unless he runs in the open seat as a carpet bagger in almost entirely new real estate. Quite Demonic that. I need a second drink. The public square sucks, now more than ever.

I am not sure the above is accurate either. Vet it baby. Other than that Delgado lives where I said he lived.

[Torie]

My money is on NY Dems going the TX Republican route, i.e. drawing something which is both unnecessarily ugly and less effective as a gerrymander than maps people have already drawn on Twitter.

Remember TX does not have an unduly favor one party proscription while NYS and Ohio do. And the Supremes of both states are not unduly hackish. So I tend to doubt the accuracy of your crystal ball, and whether it be Mr. Felder or the Supremes drawing the CD map, my ball sees a conservative Jewish CD in south Brooklyn. They deserve one. They are multiplying at exponential speed.

Btw I just discovered that my great grandparents, grandparents, and my grand uncle are all etched on a tombstone in Greenwood cemetery and there is room in the family plot for three more caskets, and 4 more cremated remains. Yes, color me shocked. I had no idea. I insisted that my Dad be "buried" in the Pacific Ocean, so he ain't there. My Dad lived the first 12 years of his life in Midwood, and then after a two year stint in Florida, and another 10 years in the slums of BedStuy, before he started making some serious money, and fled to Westchester County. I am a New Yawker baby, and not as a newbie. And a WASP. Shocking no? Ha!

To your point about the NYS constitution and court of appeals, I believe that Oregon has a similar constitutional requirement which is not going to matter due to a combination of a 7-0 D court and the ineptitude of the state Republican Party. I believe the court of appeals is 6-1 D, so it wouldn't shock me if they, too, turn a blind eye or convince themselves it's kosher, although all the justices were appointed by Cuomo (who confusingly appointed a Republican for some reason?) so honestly who knows.

Thank you. For those justices who are competent and ethical, I just can't see it, and Oregon was far more subtle than the gymnastics than what the NYS Supremes (the appellate division of the appellate court) would need to go through to get to a 21-5 map, and, oh yes, if Oregon has that law, surely someone has sued, so we don't know the outcome of that yet. If nobody sued yet, I have to question your interpretation of the law.

A bunch of Oregon Republicans did sue, but the special master basically said that the map was probably good. Anyone with a brain can see that the map is gerrymandered, and therefore probably violates an Oregon law that says that “[n]o district shall be drawn for the purpose of favoring any political party, incumbent legislator or other person” as well as various parts of the state constitution, but the Republicans seem to not have a brain, because the expert they got explained it very poorly and the Democrats got a couple experts to say that you should use their highly esoteric measurement which coincidentally finds no issue to determine partisan bias instead of efficiency gap, as well as a bunch of Bend residents waxing rhapsodic about how much they have in common with Portland and a bunch of rural Oregonians saying how much they want to be in as rural (and therefore as R packed) a district as possible. It's certainly possible that the map gets struck down but I'd be very surprised.

Link to the special master's tentative findings of fact: https://www.opb.org/pdf/BREITHAUPT%20tentative%20fof_1635865838561.pdf

I await the court decision with interest. Is it before the high court in the state, or a lower court? Mirror mirror on the wall, how many justices will sell their soul for next to nothing at all?


Oh yes, thank you for your high effort response, in an environment, here, there and everywhere,  that prefers the low effort sand box. When my body went to hell, it was as if so goes the Torie, so goes the planet. But what was left in Pandora's box was my life, at least for a bit, as perhaps the substitute for hope. Better it was the planet than me of course.

Addendum: I notice that the 538 redistricting tracker has on ignore the "unduly favor" proscription, and commented upon that at its site. They seem to assume the Pubs in Florida and the Dems in NYS can do whatever the F they want, and will.

[Torie]

Are there any examples where a Democratic court has fixed a Democratic gerrymander? We have a number of cases where a Dem court fixed a Republican gerrymander, and we know it’s unlikely a Republican court would fix a Republican gerrymander. It seems like Oregon was an example of a Dem court declining to fix a gerrymander.

This doesn’t mean NY won’t be different, but I don’t know if it’s happened.

Most states do not have the "unduly favor" proscription in their state constitution that constrains what the legislature can draw.  It seems to have constrained some what the Dems, some of whom are Dem legislative appointments, on the NYS redistricting commission are doing. Frankly, I don't think the pundits, including those at 538, and including the NYS governor are mouthing, are either familiar or have seriously  grappled with this issue. It's all been dumbed down.