🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A bit of a random question, but I was wondering if Mike or someone else knows where I can find political maps or full broken-down data from the First Republic. I saw there is some of this on Portuguese Wikipedia but it is very spotty and about as confusing as that time period itself, although it still suggested political-geographical cleavages were nothing like in the modern day. Do you know anything better or more complete?

[Mike88]

A bit of a random question, but I was wondering if Mike or someone else knows where I can find political maps or full broken-down data from the First Republic. I saw there is some of this on Portuguese Wikipedia but it is very spotty and about as confusing as that time period itself, although it still suggested political-geographical cleavages were nothing like in the modern day. Do you know anything better or more complete?

Unfortunately, there isn't a compact platform with pre-1974 elections data, and what is out there is just scattered information, in which you have to do a lot of research until finding what you want, and sometimes there's even not much at all.

I found some documents about some of the elections and events in that period:

1922 election: https://repositorio.iscte-iul.pt/bitstream/10071/19044/1/master_duarte_cacao_vieira.pdf

1918 election and period: https://www.parlamento.pt/Parlamento/Paginas/Republica-Nova.aspx

1st Republic period: https://books.openedition.org/cidehus/3753

The fall of the Republic: https://books.openedition.org/cidehus/3786

They are all in Portuguese.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio on the Russia-Ukraine war:

Q1: Should NATO intervene directly in the war?

42% No
38% Yes
20% Undecided

- Younger voters want military intervention from NATO (49%);
- Older voters reject the idea of military intervention (59%);
- Women more in favour of military intervention than men;

Q2: Should the EU continue the path to a common army?

68% Yes
16% No
16% Undecided

Q3: Who's the main responsible for this war?

88% Russia
  4% USA
  2% Ukraine
  1% NATO
  1% EU
  4% Undecided

Q4: What's Russia main goal with this war?

65% Recover its influence and dominance in former USSR territories
18% Prevent Ukraine's accession to NATO
  8% Change the Ukrainian government
  4% Prevent Ukraine's accession to the EU
  3% Demilitarize Ukraine
  2% Other

Poll conducted between 10 and 14 March 2022. Polled 765 voters. MoE of 3.56%.

[Mike88]

New Government: President Marcelo expects to swear in Costa's cabinet on 30 March.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, currently in a State visit to Mozambique, announced he expects to have Costa's cabinet sworn in on 30 March, adding that the new Parliament will also be sworn in during the previous day, on 29 March. Costa also announced he will deliver the list of ministers to the President on 23 March.

This seems to be the final timetable if, of course, nothing goes wrong, again, during the overseas ballot counting.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Carlos Moedas is officially out of the race.

Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas is officially out of the PSD race. In an interview to DN newspaper, Moedas said he's "married to Lisbon" and that there's no hesitancy regarding the PSD leadership. However, he refused to endorse any of the possible candidates. Some in the media have been reporting that Moedas was receiving pressures to run for the leadership, but these pressures didn't make sense as Moedas is only mayor for around 5 months and any run for the PSD top job right now, would be political suicide.

MEP Paulo Rangel has also announced he will not run, while other less electable candidates like Pedro Rodrigues, former JSD leader, and Ribau Esteves, Aveiro mayor, are considering running. But, overall, the leadership seems to be a walk in the park for Luís Montenegro, the only candidate that is preparing a run.

[Mike88]

Overseas election rerun: Update in ballots returned.

According to the Interior Minister, until this Monday morning, around 96,000 mail ballots arrived in Portugal from European countries. On Friday, the minister had 77,736 returned ballots, but the number increased during the weekend.

Tomorrow, 22 March, counting officials will start processing ballots and only ballots that arrive before the afternoon of 23 March, will be counted.

[Mike88]

The counting and processing of the overseas ballots has started in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/PartidoRir/status/1506256179680485382

First results are expected during tomorrow's evening. So far, 107,553 ballots have been returned.

[Mike88]

First indications of the overseas ballots counting are that there will be a lot of invalid ballots. Several ballots continue to not be accompanied by an ID card copy, invalidating them immediately.

However, and unlike in the first election, the ballots are being separated and no issues have been brought up so far.

[Mike88]

New government:

At the same time the ballots from Europe are being processed, the media is leaking Costa's list of ministers for the next government. Costa wanted to avoid leaks, but, here's the list:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- João Sobrinho Teixeira, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Cláudio Monteiro, Justice Minister
- Pedro do Carmo, Agriculture and Sea Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

Including Costa, it's 18 cabinet members. Costa said he was planning to form a smaller cabinet, but, this list has the same number of ministers as his first cabinet (2015-2019), and just two less compared with his 2nd cabinet. In terms of parity, this leaked list has 11 men and 6 women.

This leak of names, overall, isn't surprising. The main surprises are the Defence and Justice minister which are complete unknowns.

We'll see if this will be the real list of minister.

[Mike88]

Overseas rerun: PSD loses one MP as the PS wins the last two seats available.

The PSD suffered a big defeat in the rerun of the overseas votes from Europe. With 2 countries still to be counted, the PS will win all 2 seats and the PSD will lose the one they had won in the original election in January.

With 2 countries still to report: (94,475 ballots)

32.7% PS, 2 seats (+1)
14.9% PSD, 0 (-1)
  6.4% CHEGA, 0
  2.7% PAN, 0
  2.3% BE, 0
  2.1% IL, 0
  1.2% CDU, 0
  1.2% Livre, 0
  1.0% CDS, 0
35.5% Others/Invalid, 0

The % of Invalid ballots is currently at 31.84%!!!

[Boobs]

How likely is Costa to serve out the entire term as PM?

IIRC isn't Nuno Santos floated as a potential successor to him?

[Mike88]

How likely is Costa to serve out the entire term as PM?

IIRC isn't Nuno Santos floated as a potential successor to him?

No one knows, to be honest. If a majority government basically ensures stability for 4 years, Costa's options may alter, and here enters the very old rumour that Costa wants to be President of the European Council. He was actually invited in 2019, but declined as he was running for reelection as PM, but the job is up for grabs in 2024. How will the country be at that time? Will Costa be feed up and resign to go to Europe like Durão Barroso did in 2004? We don't know. The media is talking about this rumour and Costa's positions towards VAT on energy and so on, is very aligned with EU rules, unlike what the Spanish government, for example, is persuing. Is he launching a "charm campaign" to the EU? Only time will tell.

However, if Costa does go to the EU in 2024, there will probably be a snap election. President Marcelo has told, off the record, to almost everyone in the political sphere that he will not accept a new PS Prime Minister without elections and a repeat of the 2004-2005 political crisis, when Durão Barroso was replaced by Santana Lopes.

Yes, Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the strongest candidate to succeed Costa, however, he's not very popular and is aligned with the more leftwing parts of the PS, that wants closer links with PCP and BE. There are other possible contenders in this race: Fernando Medina (although he's still very tainted by the whole Russiagate fiasco, and his pick as Finance minister isn't very well seen) and Ana Catarina Mendes (not very popular within the PS).

[Mike88]

Final results of the Europe rerun election:

Vote share % (109,350 ballots)

33.0% PS, 2 seats (+1)
15.0% PSD, 0 (-1)
  7.1% CHEGA, 0
  2.7% PAN, 0
  2.5% IL, 0
  2.4% BE, 0
  1.4% Livre, 0
  1.3% CDU, 0
  1.1% CDS, 0
33.5% Others/Invalid

11.8% Turnout

30.0% of the votes (32,777 ballots) were invalidated.

Final results of the 2022 general elections (Finally!!)

Vote share %:

41.4% PS (+5.1), 120 seats (+12)
29.1% PSD (+1.3), 77 (-2)
  7.2% CHEGA (+5.9), 12 (+11)
  4.9% IL (+3.6), 8 (+7)
  4.4% BE (-5.1), 5 (-14)
  4.3% CDU (-2.0), 6 (-6)
  1.6% CDS (-2.6), 0 (-5)
  1.6% PAN (-1.7), 1 (-3)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2), 1 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (-0.3)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (-0.5)
  0.2% JPP (nc)
  0.2% ADN (nc)
  0.1% MPT (-0.1)
  0.1% Volt Portugal (new)
  0.1% MAS (nc)
  0.1% E (-0.2)
  0.1% NC (-0.1)
  0.1% PTP (-0.1)
  0.0% Alliance (-0.7)
  0.0% PPM (-0.2)
  2.6% Blank/Invalid ballots (-2.3)

51.4% Turnout (+2.9)

Graphic representation of the new Parliament:
https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1506744933859868675

[Mike88]

There seems to be an ongoing "incident" between President Marcelo and PM Costa:

The leak of the list of ministers in the next cabinet upset Marcelo, and while he was arriving at an event, regarding the 50th anniversary of the 1974 revolution, the President told reporters that if everyone knows the list of ministers and because he was informed by the media, he would probably cancel his audience with Costa tonight.

A few hours later, the Presidential Palace confirmed that the audience between Marcelo and Costa was cancelled.

Also, some changes in the leaked list from CNN last night:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- João Sobrinho Teixeira, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Cláudio Monteiro, Justice Minister
- Pedro do Carmo, Agriculture and Sea Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

The new "leaked" list:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy and Sea Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- Elvira Fortunato, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Catarina Sarmento e Castro, Justice Minister
- Maria do Céu Antunes, Agriculture Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

In terms of gender it's now a tie, unlike the first leak: 9 men vs 9 women.

[Mike88]

The new "leaked" list:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy and Sea Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- Elvira Fortunato, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Catarina Sarmento e Castro, Justice Minister
- Maria do Céu Antunes, Agriculture Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

In terms of gender it's now a tie, unlike the first leak: 9 men vs 9 women.

The official and final list of cabinet ministers only has a difference between the leak above, in the Culture ministry:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy and Sea Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- Elvira Fortunato, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Catarina Sarmento e Castro, Justice Minister
- Maria do Céu Antunes, Agriculture Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- Pedro Adão e Silva, Culture Minister

Pedro Adão e Silva, the chairman of the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution (a nomination that created a lot of controversy), will be the Culture minister. The Government also has 38 secretaries of state for the different ministries. Overall, Costa's 3rd cabinet will have 56 members.

[Mike88]

An interesting milestone was surpassed today, 24 March 2022.

The number of days in democracy, starting on 25 April 1974, surpassed the number of days of the 1926-1974 Dictatorship, 17,500 vs 17,499 days:

https://twitter.com/AssembleiaRepub/status/1506577555859591172?cxt=HHwWiMCyucGTu...

A light and sound show was held in the Parliament facade, last night, at midnight, to celebrate the moment:

https://twitter.com/AssembleiaRepub/status/1506721889682661379?cxt=HHwWhoC5nezk-...

[Mike88]

Opposition parties reaction to the new government:

The opposition parties have been reacting to the composition of Costa's new cabinet. The PSD advised the government to change its posture in some dossiers, while IL says that the new government is quite big, and that Costa failed to create a true "taskforce" government like he promissed.

CHEGA says the new government has no news to report, but they label the pick of Medina as Finance Minister as a "bad joke" due to his role in the Russiagate last year. BE said that the new government will have a lot of tests to pass and only after that can it be evaluated, and PCP pointed that many reappointed  ministers didn't solve any problems and that this is not very good news. PAN, like CHEGA, also criticized the choice of Fernando Medina as minister.

Also, another political story has been surprising many people: Former PAN and Independent MP, Cristina Rodrigues, will be working for CHEGA.

Former MP Cristina Rodrigues (2019-2022), elected by PAN but then left the party and remained as an Independent MP, announced that she will be an advisor for CHEGA in Parliament. She will advice the party's caucus on law matters. From left to right, but mainly from the left, there is a lot of criticisms towards Ms Rodrigues for her decision to be involved with CHEGA.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper on the election results:

Q1: When did you decide in which party to vote?

67% More than a month before
14% On election day
  9% Two weeks before election day
  7% One month before election day

Vote share % of those who decided on election day (14%)

28% PS
11% PSD
  6% CHEGA
  5% BE
  3% CDU
  2% IL
  6% Others
  7% Invalid
34% Refused to answer

Q2: Are you satisfied with your vote decision?

83% Yes
16% No

Q3: Are you satisfied with the PS absolute majority victory?

48% Not satisfied
42% Satisfied
10% Undecided

Poll conducted between 11 February and 7 March 2022. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll vote transfer diagram:

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1507653612817850370
(More analysis clicking in the tweet)

PS and PSD gained votes from non-2019 voters, while PS won a lot of BE 2019 voters and PSD basically won all of the 2019 CDS vote. CHEGA gained the most votes from abstentionists, while IL gained votes from, also, abstentionists, PSD and, surprisingly, BE.

[Mike88]

"Super Sunday" local by-elections (lol): 3 parishes elect new local assemblies on Sunday.

The first local by-elections of the 2021-2025 local government term will take place next Sunday, 27 March. Parishes in Vila Real, Viseu and Santarém districts, that failed to form a local government, will vote again. The 3 parishes are the following:

- São Mamede de Ribatua parish, Alijó, Viseu: The PSD won the elections in 2021, 39%, but lost its majority as the PS, 29%, and a local Independent movement, 26%, gained seats. Parties failed to reach a deal to manage the parish and the parish assembly was dissolved. In the by-election, however, the local Independent movement will not run and only PS and PSD will be on the ballot. The parish has 661 registered voters;

- Alvega e Concavada parish, Abrantes, Santarém: The PS won the elections here in 2021, with 34%, but there was a 3-way tie in terms of seats as PS, PSD and BE won 3 seats each. Also, no deal was reached and the assembly was dissolved. 3 lists are in the ballot: PS, CDU and an Independent coalition between PSD and BE. The parish has 1,680 registered voters;

- Penedono e Granja parish, Penedono, Viseu: The PSD won, last September, by just a 6 vote difference from the PS, but an Independent list also one a seat, thus ending the PSD majority in the parish. Again, no deal was reached to manage the parish and a new election had to be held. The same lists of 2021 will run again: PS, PSD and an Independent list. The parish has 1,122 registered voters.

[Mike88]

Final and certified results of the 2022 general elections:


Image Link

[Mike88]

New government: Criticisms grow as Costa is accused of making a government with the "Lisbon Court".

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1507953380693532673

New Government: Costa accused of making Government with the Lisbon “court”

With the new government now fully known, evaluations on who got in to cabinet are being given, and some are not very positive. Many on the media point that Costa formed a government in order to plan his succession in the PS and that he didn't create a dynamic team to reform the country. But, even within the PS, some are uncomfortable with the new cabinet. According to Público newspaper, several PS high profile members are saying, off the record, that Costa did a government "only for Lisbon" and that he forgot the rest of the country. Some also add that including in the government all of the main leaders in the PS leadership may not be a good idea.

President Marcelo was also pressured by reporters to comment on the new cabinet. After the "leak incident" between Marcelo and Costa last Wednesday, the President said that it's Costa's picks and that he is not Prime Minister, but if he were, he wouldn't of course pick the same people as Costa did.

[Mike88]

"Super Sunday" local by-elections (lol): 3 parishes elect new local assemblies on Sunday.

Results of Sunday's local by-elections:

Alvega e Concavada parish by-election: Independent (PSD+BE) gain over PS.

Vote share %:

51.2% Independent (PSD+BE), 5 seats (-1)
39.3% PS, 4 (+1)
  8.4% CDU, 0
  1.0% Blank/Invalid

56.0% Turnout

São Mamede de Ribatua parish by-election: PSD hold

Vote share %:

63.0% PSD, 5 seats (+2)
35.3% PS, 2 (nc)
  1.7% Blank/Invalid

63.6% Turnout

Penedono e Granja parish by-election: PSD hold

50.9% PSD, 5 seats (+1)
42.8% PS, 4 (nc)
  5.5% Independent, 0 (-1)
  0.8% Blank/Invalid

59.8% Turnout

[Mike88]

New Parliament: Today, MPs are sworn in and a new Speaker is elected.

The new 230 MPs are being sworn in today and the 15th legislature will now start. After lunch time, MPs will also elect a new Speaker. The vote is by secret ballot and only one candidate is on the ballot, the PS candidate Augusto Santos Silva.

His election is guaranteed as the PS has 120 votes, 4 more than what's needed for a majority, but the other parties from left to right, aren't committing in supporting Mr Santos Silva.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Luís Montenegro officially announces that he will run for the leadership.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1508694296425377794

It's official. Luís Montenegro will be a candidate for the leadership of the PSD

In a short message to Lusa Agency, Luís Montenegro confirmed that after "discussing with party members and voters" he decided to run for the party's leadership. A public announcement is expected for next week. This is Montenegro's second run for the leadership, after being defeated by Rio in 2020 by a 53-47% margin.

Other possible contenders, but with little chance, like Aveiro mayor Ribau Esteves, are also expected to announce if they run or not for the leadership in the next few days.