🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Antonio the Sixth]

Given how D'Hondt works, PS would need twice the vote of PSD in the Europe constituency in order to win both seats, right?

[Mike88]

Given how D'Hondt works, PS would need twice the vote of PSD in the Europe constituency in order to win both seats, right?

Yes, it seems unlikely for the PS winning the 2nd Europe seat, however the PS could still make gains in places like Paris, which has a lot of ballots. However, we don't know where the nullified ballots are coming from, and this could delay the announcement of the results as the PS is considering going to the Courts in order to have these nullified ballots counted.

The most likely outcome, so far and looking at the results, is a 2-2 split between PS and PSD, like it was two years ago in 2019.

[Mike88]

Current tally:

Europe (2 seats), 95.5% counted: (186,838 ballots so far)

40.7% PS
25.4% PSD
10.1% CHEGA
  3.8% BE
  3.7% CDU
  2.5% CDU
  2.4% IL
  1.4% Livre
  1.3% CDS
  1.2% PCTP/MRPP
  7.5% Others/Invalid

Outside Europe (2 seats), 58.3% counted (38,071 ballots so far)

38.3% PSD
29.1% PS
10.0% CHEGA
  4.5% PAN
  3.3% IL
  2.3% BE
  2.2% CDS
  1.4% CDU
  1.0% NC
  1.0% Livre
  6.9% Others/Invalid

[crals]

Disappointing how well Chega is doing with the diaspora. The Facebook effect, I suppose.

[Mike88]

Disappointing how well Chega is doing with the diaspora. The Facebook effect, I suppose.

I'm not surprised, to be honest. What surprised me is that, so far, CHEGA is doing much better in Europe than in Outside of Europe. The latter is much more aligned with the rightwing, but CHEGA didn't make big inroads. In the US, the PSD won 45-30% against the PS, with CHEGA a distant 3rd at 11%. And in Brazil, only 10% of the votes, so far. As in Europe, in Luxembourg, CHEGA almost got 13% of the votes, while in Switzerland they got more than 17% of the votes.

[Mike88]

Europe Constituency, 2 seats, is now fully counted: (193,349 ballots)

Vote share %:

40.4% PS, 1 seat (nc)
25.4% PSD, 1 (nc)
  9.9% CHEGA
  4.0% BE
  3.8% PAN
  2.6% IL
  2.6% CDU
  1.6% Livre
  1.3% CDS
  1.2% PCTP/MRPP
  7.2% Others/Invalid

20.9% Turnout

PS won in all consulates, with the expection of Madrid which was won by the PSD.

[Mike88]

Outside of Europe Constituency, 2 seats, also fully counted: (64,442 ballots)

Vote share %:

37.5% PSD, 1 seat (nc)
29.8% PS, 1 (nc)
  9.6% CHEGA
  4.5% PAN
  3.6% IL
  2.6% BE
  2.1% CDS
  1.4% CDU
  1.0% ADN
  1.0% Livre
  1.0% NC
  5.9% Others/Invalid

10.8% Turnout

The PSD won Brazil, Angola, Canada, USA and the rest of American countries. The PS won in China, and in the rest of countries of Asia and Africa.

[Mike88]

Final results of the 2022 general elections:

Vote share %: (compared with 2019)

41.5% PS (+5.2), 119 seats (+11)
29.2% PSD (+1.4), 78 (-1)
  7.3% CHEGA (+6.0), 12 (+11)
  4.9% IL (+3.6), 8 (+7)
  4.4% BE (-5.1), 5 (-14)
  4.3% CDU (-2.0), 6 (-6)
  1.6% PAN (-1.7), 1 (-3)
  1.6% CDS (-2.6), 0 (-5)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2), 1 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (-0.3)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (-0.5)
  0.2% ADN (nc)
  0.2% JPP (nc)
  0.2% MPT (-0.1)
  0.1% Volt Portugal (new)
  0.1% MAS (nc)
  0.1% E (-0.2)
  0.1% NC (-0.1)
  0.1% PTP (-0.1)
  0.1% Alliance (-0.7)
  0.0% PPM (-0.2)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid ballots (-2.7)

52.2% Turnout (+3.6)

[mileslunn]

Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

[Mike88]

Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

Canada: (9,927 ballots)

39.5% PSD
37.9% PS
  9.3% CHEGA
  2.2% BE
  1.7% PAN
  1.5% CDS
  1.5% CDU
  1.2% IL
  5.2% Others/Invalid

17.8% Turnout

The PSD won in Toronto by a 40-36% margin over the PS, while in the rest of Canada, the PS got 42% to the PSD 37%.

USA: (8,601 ballots)

45.0% PSD
30.3% PS
10.9% CHEGA
  2.2% CDS
  2.1% BE
  2.0% IL
  2.0% PAN
  1.1% CDU
  4.4% Others/Invalid

13.8% Turnout

The PSD dominated in the whole US, winning in Newark with 47% of the votes, against the 29% for the PS and the 14% for CHEGA. In the rest of the US, PSD achieved 44% of the votes, the PS 31% and CHEGA 9%. Other parties were bellow 3%.

[CumbrianLefty]

How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

[Mike88]

How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

It's difficult to compare, in terms of share of course, because last time there were 22% of invalid ballots, so PS and PSD got shares well bellow 30%. In terms of votes however, basically all parties grew exponentially compared with 2019. Of the main parties, only CDS lost votes. PS got more 55,000 votes, PSD more 36,000 votes, CHEGA more 24,000 votes, while the other parties had smaller increases: BE more 1,809 ballots; PAN more 2,679; CDU more 2,611; IL more 5,138; and Livre more 2,123 votes. Like I said above, only CDS drooped, losing 1,359 votes compared with 2019.

Overall, this time there were 414,996 ballots 257,791 ballots from overseas, but 157,205 were thrown out because of no ID copy identification, or because counting officers mixed regular ballots with others that lack ID identification, thus invalidating all of the ballots. The PS considered going to the Courts to have these ballots counted, but they have now dropped that, as it would delay the opening of the new Parliament plus it wouldn't change the 2-2 seat split between PS and PSD. However, the party says it will change the electoral law.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

Canada: (9,927 ballots)

39.5% PSD
37.9% PS
  9.3% CHEGA
  2.2% BE
  1.7% PAN
  1.5% CDS
  1.5% CDU
  1.2% IL
  5.2% Others/Invalid

17.8% Turnout

The PSD won in Toronto by a 40-36% margin over the PS, while in the rest of Canada, the PS got 42% to the PSD 37%.

USA: (8,601 ballots)

45.0% PSD
30.3% PS
10.9% CHEGA
  2.2% CDS
  2.1% BE
  2.0% IL
  2.0% PAN
  1.1% CDU
  4.4% Others/Invalid

13.8% Turnout

The PSD dominated in the whole US, winning in Newark with 47% of the votes, against the 29% for the PS and the 14% for CHEGA. In the rest of the US, PSD achieved 44% of the votes, the PS 31% and CHEGA 9%. Other parties were bellow 3%.

Interesting as in Canada, riding with largest Portuguese community is Davenport and it is an NDP/Liberal so very left wing.  Mind you this is just largest, lots live in other parts.  In US, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii I believe have largest Portuguese populations and all pretty solidly Democrat, but possible Portuguese went GOP as lots of other groups there.  I suspect most CHEGA voters in US voted for Trump if US citizens.  On other hand I suspect amongst PSD voters, probably fairly equally split between Biden and Trump.

[Mike88]

Interesting as in Canada, riding with largest Portuguese community is Davenport and it is an NDP/Liberal so very left wing.  Mind you this is just largest, lots live in other parts.  In US, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii I believe have largest Portuguese populations and all pretty solidly Democrat, but possible Portuguese went GOP as lots of other groups there.  I suspect most CHEGA voters in US voted for Trump if US citizens.  On other hand I suspect amongst PSD voters, probably fairly equally split between Biden and Trump.

The ballots from the Outside of Europe communities have always been very rightwing. The US and specially Brazil gives lots of votes to the PSD, even though some communities in the US live in heavily Democratic areas. Yes, the CHEGA voters may be Republican voters, and the PSD votes may divide their votes between the Dems and the GOP, but the Dems may have a bigger advantage still.

Also, to show how crazy the ballot counting was, Renascença Radio reports that PM Costa made, during the early hours of the morning, an urgent call to PSD leader Rui Rio, to ask him to drop the complaint regarding the invalid ballots as both parties would lose State funding if those ballots weren't counted. Rio forced the PSD delegates to drop the complaint, but when the PSD delegates tried to retract the complaint it was too late, as counting officers had already signed the final vote tally.

What a mess..

[Mike88]

How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

It's difficult to compare, in terms of share of course, because last time there were 22% of invalid ballots, so PS and PSD got shares well bellow 30%. In terms of votes however, basically all parties grew exponentially compared with 2019. Of the main parties, only CDS lost votes. PS got more 55,000 votes, PSD more 36,000 votes, CHEGA more 24,000 votes, while the other parties had smaller increases: BE more 1,809 ballots; PAN more 2,679; CDU more 2,611; IL more 5,138; and Livre more 2,123 votes. Like I said above, only CDS drooped, losing 1,359 votes compared with 2019.

Overall, this time there were 414,996 ballots from overseas, but 157,205 were thrown out because of no ID copy identification, or because counting officers mixed regular ballots with others that lack ID identification, thus invalidating all of the ballots. The PS considered going to the Courts to have these ballots counted, but they have now dropped that, as it would delay the opening of the new Parliament plus it wouldn't change the 2-2 seat split between PS and PSD. However, the party says it will change the electoral law.

Ok, now I'm confused. I wrote in the post above that there were 400,000 ballots from overseas, like Expresso newspaper wrote. But Público newspaper, says that with the 157,000 ballots removed, the PSD surpasses the PS in the overseas counting by 274 votes.

Not sure which report is right, so we'll have to wait for the official publication of the results to know for sure. Sorry for any misunderstanding, but the situation is confusing.

[Mike88]

Historic scene in Parliament today: The plaque of CDS's offices was removed from the building.

https://twitter.com/radio_regional/status/1491772473179885580

The #CDS-PP was in the Assembly of the Republic for 47 years, but today it took a few seconds for the plaque indicating the centrist parliamentary group to be removed from the door of the room, on the Noble Floor, which will now be Chega's.

[Mike88]

Volt Portugal appealed to the Constitutional Court in order for the 157,000 voided votes to be counted.

The Court will now notify all parts, and then make a ruling in 48 hours. So, only next week we will know how this whole mess will end.

[Mike88]

Volt Portugal appealed to the Constitutional Court in order for the 157,000 voided votes to be counted.

The Court will now notify all parts, and then make a ruling in 48 hours. So, only next week we will know how this whole mess will end.

PAN and Livre also filed a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court to have the ballots counted.

[Mike88]

How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

It's difficult to compare, in terms of share of course, because last time there were 22% of invalid ballots, so PS and PSD got shares well bellow 30%. In terms of votes however, basically all parties grew exponentially compared with 2019. Of the main parties, only CDS lost votes. PS got more 55,000 votes, PSD more 36,000 votes, CHEGA more 24,000 votes, while the other parties had smaller increases: BE more 1,809 ballots; PAN more 2,679; CDU more 2,611; IL more 5,138; and Livre more 2,123 votes. Like I said above, only CDS drooped, losing 1,359 votes compared with 2019.

Overall, this time there were 414,996 ballots 257,791 ballots from overseas, but 157,205 were thrown out because of no ID copy identification, or because counting officers mixed regular ballots with others that lack ID identification, thus invalidating all of the ballots. The PS considered going to the Courts to have these ballots counted, but they have now dropped that, as it would delay the opening of the new Parliament plus it wouldn't change the 2-2 seat split between PS and PSD. However, the party says it will change the electoral law.

Ok, now I'm confused. I wrote in the post above that there were 400,000 ballots from overseas, like Expresso newspaper wrote. But Público newspaper, says that with the 157,000 ballots removed, the PSD surpasses the PS in the overseas counting by 274 votes.

Not sure which report is right, so we'll have to wait for the official publication of the results to know for sure. Sorry for any misunderstanding, but the situation is confusing.

Right, I figured out now. There are no 400,000 ballots from overseas, the Expresso report was wrong. The Público one is right. The 157,000 disputed ballots are from the 196,000 ballots of the Europe constituency, around 80% of them. With those ballots removed, the PS loses 64,000 votes and the PSD loses 40,000 votes. Without these ballots, in Europe the PS gets 14,345 votes (39.6%) and the PSD 9,761 (27.1%). CHEGA would have 3,985 votes (11%).

In the Outside of Europe constituency, that are also some ballots invalidated but very few, just 1,907, and they have no impact at all. Overall, adding the Europe and Outside Europe constituencies, the PSD indeed surpasses the PS by 274 votes, 33,703 votes to the 33,429 of the PS.

But, now we'll have to wait for the Court's ruling. Again, sorry for any misunderstanding.

[Mike88]

Another update in the overseas ballot debacle: PSD will file a lawsuit against counting officials who mixed invalid ballots with valid ballots.

In a press conference, PSD leader Rui Rio announced that the PSD will file, next Monday, a lawsuit against counting officials who mixed invalid ballots with valid ballots, during the counting, when they were advised to separate the ballots. Rio accused several counting officers, aligned with the PS, of deliberately violating the law and mixing the ballots. Rio called the situation "intolerable" and that it's shameful that of almost 200,000 ballots, only 38,000 were valid.

This almost sounds like an US election dispute...

[Mike88]

CDS to elect a new leader during the weekend of 2 and 3 April:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1492261901291692035

National Council of the CDS-PP approves realization of a Congress on April 2nd and 3rd

CDS National Council met last night and approved the date to elect a new leader, after the resignation of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos on election night. The party will elect a new leader on the weekend of 2 and 3 April, while the venue is still to be decided. After the meeting, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos said that it was "internal friendly fire" that killed his leadership and that the party needs to start appreciate it self or the electorate will never appreciate CDS. MEP Nuno Melo is expected to announce his candidacy for the leadership, and could be the sole candidate for the leadership. Any new leader has a monumental task ahead, as in almost 50 years of Portuguese Democracy, no party that was wiped out from Parliament ever returned again.

[Mike88]

Constitutional Court demands the repetition of the election in the Europe constituency:

The Court accepted the complaints of several parties, but didn't accepted the current tally. The Court ruled that the election must be repeated in the Europe constituency, but only for the ballots that were ruled out, not the 38,000 valid ones. The Electoral Commission will be notified, and will have to start sending ballots overseas in the next few weeks. The process could last almost a month.

This will of course delay the swearing in of a new Parliament and of Costa's cabinet, which could only happen now by mid March.

Of course, this whole debacle has created a lot of fury and disappointment in overseas comunities, and the turnout could be quite low. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Constitutional Court demands the repetition of the election in the Europe constituency:

The Court accepted the complaints of several parties, but didn't accepted the current tally. The Court ruled that the election must be repeated in the Europe constituency, but only for the ballots that were ruled out, not the 38,000 valid ones. The Electoral Commission will be notified, and will have to start sending ballots overseas in the next few weeks. The process could last almost a month.

This will of course delay the swearing in of a new Parliament and of Costa's cabinet, which could only happen now by mid March.

Of course, this whole debacle has created a lot of fury and disappointment in overseas comunities, and the turnout could be quite low. We'll see.

Update on the ballots debacle:

There are several doubts of how the election repetition will be held. The law says that any election re run has to ocurr in the 2nd Sunday after the Court's ruling. But, there's a problem. Overseas voting is overwhelmingly done by mail, 95%+, and the law hints that only in person voting could be allowed. Plus, parties like PAN are considering asking for an appeal if only in person voting is allowed in the rerun of the election.

The Electoral Commission (CNE) has announced they will give a press conference at 8pm, and it's expected that the Commission explains how the voting will be conducted.

[Mike88]

Major Update: Público newspaper says that the election rerun will only happen in late March:

The National Elections Commission scheduled for this Wednesday, at 8 pm, a press conference in which clarifications will be provided on the repetition of the legislative in the constituency of Europe. From what the PÚBLICO found out, in order to ensure compliance with all legal requirements, the election will only be repeated at the end of March, on the weekend of the 26th and 27th (one month later than expected). This date pushes the inauguration of the Government and the Assembly of the Republic to mid-April(...)

I assume this is because of postal votes, but we'll have to wait for the CNE press conference.

[Mike88]

Final dates for the overseas election rerun:

The CNE just announced, in a press conference, the final dates of the Europe constituency election rerun. The first dates being reported, by the press, were 26 and 27 March for the in person voting, but the CNE retracted those dates and now points to in person voting between 12 and 13 March. Mail ballots will be received until 23 March. The timetable is the following:

- Late February: Postal ballots are sent to voters;
- 12 and 13 March: In person voting;
- 23 March: Last day to receive postal ballots;
- 23 March: Counting process begins;
- 25 March: Announcement of the results;
- Between 25 and 27 March: Publication of the final and official results;
- Late March/Early April: Swearing in of the new Parliament and of the new Government;

Despite having 38,000 valid ballots, these are also thrown out and the election will be completely repeated, from scratch, in the Europe constituency.

The media is labeling this whole situation as a major embarrassment for the political class in Portugal, and the international media is also picking it up.