🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

More maps: Parish map with most voted party in the 3,092 parishes of the country.


Image link.

The PS won 2,190 parishes, the PSD 889, CDU won in 7 parishes, JPP won 2 in Madeira and CDS also won in 2 parishes. 2 parishes, in my count, resulted in a tie.

[Mike88]

Controversy as leftwing parties are saying they will reject a CHEGA Deputy Speaker in the Parliamentary Leadership:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1488932129325174787

Arm wrestling in Parliament. Ventura does not give up a vice president of Chega in Parliament

According to the Parliamentary rules, the 4 most voted parties have the right to nominate deputy speakers in Parliament. As CHEGA, after last Sunday's election, is the 3rd largest party, they have the right to nominate someone. But, the left parties, PS, BE and PCP, are not willing, as of now, to elect a CHEGA deputy speaker. Ventura is already playing the "victim card" and is saying that no one would understand a block to the election of a CHEGA MP. In a statement after his audience with President Marcelo, Ventura added that he hopes that the reports are only "dust controversies", and that his party will not abdicate from the post. The election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers is conducted by secret ballot.

[Mike88]

PSD is considering asking for a recount in Bragança:

PSD shuts down the controversy in Bragança and will not ask for a recount. The final tally now gives the PS a 12 vote lead over the PSD. On election night, the PS had a 15 vote lead out of almost 66,000 ballots.

[Flyersfan232]

Controversy as leftwing parties are saying they will reject a CHEGA Ddeputy Speaker in the Parliamentary Leadership:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1488932129325174787

Arm wrestling in Parliament. Ventura does not give up a vice president of Chega in Parliament

According to the Parliamentary rules, the 4 most voted parties have the right to nominate deputy speakers in Parliament. As CHEGA, after last Sunday's election, is the 3rd largest party, they have the right to nominate someone. But, the left parties, PS, BE and PCP, are not willing, as of now, to elect a CHEGA deputy speaker. Ventura is already playing the "victim card" and is saying that no one would understand a block to the election of a CHEGA MP. In a statement after his audience with President Marcelo, Ventura added that he hopes that the reports are only "dust controversies", and that his party will not abdicate from the post. The election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers is conducted by secret ballot.

what is IL and PSD saying

[Mike88]

Controversy as leftwing parties are saying they will reject a CHEGA Deputy Speaker in the Parliamentary Leadership:

According to the Parliamentary rules, the 4 most voted parties have the right to nominate deputy speakers in Parliament. As CHEGA, after last Sunday's election, is the 3rd largest party, they have the right to nominate someone. But, the left parties, PS, BE and PCP, are not willing, as of now, to elect a CHEGA deputy speaker. Ventura is already playing the "victim card" and is saying that no one would understand a block to the election of a CHEGA MP. In a statement after his audience with President Marcelo, Ventura added that he hopes that the reports are only "dust controversies", and that his party will not abdicate from the post. The election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers is conducted by secret ballot.

what is IL and PSD saying

IL leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, said that any decision will be taken by the party's caucus when the time comes. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, said that the election is by secret ballot and each MP has to make a decision, but added, that according to the rules, CHEGA has every right to ask for a Deputy Speaker post.

[CumbrianLefty]

More maps: Parish map with most voted party in the 3,092 parishes of the country.


Image link.

The PS won 2,190 parishes, the PSD 889, CDU won in 7 parishes, JPP won 2 in Madeira and CDS also won in 2 parishes. 2 parishes, in my count, resulted in a tie.

So no Chega parishes, then - where were they closest?

[Mike88]

So no Chega parishes, then - where were they closest?

They got their best result in Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, Beja district. CHEGA got 29.3% in this parish (110 votes), against the 46.9% of the PS (176 votes). This was the parish that also gave their best showing back in 2019. In other small parishes in Portalegre district, they also got results above 20%, but they are few, and in none of them were they close to winning them.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Rio bows out and calls a party meeting to call a leadership election.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1489339792940744719

Rio announces that it will not run for the leadership of the PSD

Rio's leadership team met, this afternoon, to asses last Sunday's general election results that gave the PSD 29% of the votes, a clear underperformance of what polls were predicting, and that shocked the party. After the meeting, Rio announced he will leave the PSD leadership and schedule a National Council meeting, on 19 February, to call a leadership election. Rio said he wants the leadership issue resolved until early July, saying he's open to discuss earlier dates. He will lead the party during the 2022 budget discussion, that will occur in March, but hasn't decided yet if he will remain in Parliament after leaving the leadership.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Rest in oeace.

[Mike88]

More parties leadership crisis:

- PAN is also a bit in turmoil. The disastrous results in Sunday's election, 1.5% and just one MP, is creating a lot of tension within the party. So much so, that the former leader of PAN, André Silva, wrote an op-ed in Público newspaper trashing the current PAN leadership, saying it transformed PAN into the "godson" of the PS. He's also willing to return to the party's leadership;

- CDS is in full crisis. The party is set to elect a new leader in a party congress on 9 and 10 April, with Nuno Melo, currently, being the sole candidate. At the same time, the party is near bankruptcy and may be forced to leave their historical headquarters in downtown Lisbon.

- BE is also living some tense moments. The colapse of the party in the elections, is creating criticisms towards Catarina Martins and some ask for her resignation or a complete change of strategy. Catarina Martins, however, has stated she will not resign.

[Mike88]

More maps:

CHEGA, IL and CDU vote share by parish:

CHEGA:
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1488085809618116609

IL:
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1488087598966915076

CDU:
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1488112615440240642

[Keep Calm and ...]

Another nice map

https://twitter.com/AJRElectionMaps/status/1488656208869441538

[Mike88]

Very good map! Thanks for the share OldEurope.

Interesting that the Lisbon parish map is almost identical to the local election parish map, last September. Only two parishes are different: Parque das Nações and Campo de Ourique. The tactical voting in the PS was clear this time, unlike last September.

[mileslunn]

Just eyeballing maps, looks like Chega did best in least densely populated parts of country while IL was strongest in densest parts.  PS vs. PSD seemed to have a weak correlation, not like Anglosphere where high density areas tend to favour parties on left and low density on right.

[Mike88]

Just eyeballing maps, looks like Chega did best in least densely populated parts of country while IL was strongest in densest parts.  PS vs. PSD seemed to have a weak correlation, not like Anglosphere where high density areas tend to favour parties on left and low density on right.

Yes, CHEGA does best in less populated areas in the Alentejo region, and in the rural parts of the North and Center, especially those close to the Spanish border. In urban areas, CHEGA performed best in the suburban ring in the North of Lisbon, mainly in Sintra, almost 10% of the votes, and Loures, 9%. IL voters seems to be urban, young and highly educated. The party also performed very well in the richest parishes in the country: For example, in Lisbon city, Avenidas Novas, a high middle class parish, IL almost achieved 17% of the votes.

PSD does much better in rural, semi-rural areas than urban ones, however, this is the case above the Tagus river, as bellow, in the South, PSD is strongest in urban areas and basically non existent in rural areas, which have very little density, however. PS, on the other hand, does well in rural areas, as it benefits from the bipolarization between PS and PSD, and does quite well in urban areas, and in this election especially, as leftwing voters massively voted tactically in the PS, while rightwing voters were more scattered.

[Mike88]

More updates on the election fallout:

- The controversy surrounding the CHEGA Deputy Speaker position continues. Ventura nominated Diogo Pacheco de Amorim, elected from Porto, as the party's pick for Deputy Speaker but he's a controversial figure as he was part of far-right terrorist groups during the 1974-76 years, after the 1974 revolution. His name is likely to fail, but the vote is by secret ballot and only on the day of voting we will know;

- Business leaders and the Banking sector are delighted with the PS majority government. Several bussiness leaders and Bank CEOs are happy with the election results saying that the PS is now free from the influence of the leftwing parties. Business leaders advise Costa to launch a "reformist approach" to cut taxes, make no changes in Labour laws and create incentives for innovation and investment;

- Costa's new cabinet is set to be sworn in on the last week of this month, maybe 23 or 24 February. But, in order to avoid leaks, Costa will only give the names of his new cabinet to President Marcelo 24 hours before the swering in ceremony. Costa has also announced that his new cabinet will be smaller with some ministers accumulating posts;

[Mike88]

More maps:

Left vs Right parish map:

Image link

[Mike88]

More updates:

- Total meltdown in PAN: 10 members of PAN's leadership resigned, criticizing Inês Sousa Real's leadership and asking for a snap party congress. Former PAN leader, André Silva, returned and in a TV interview trashed Sousa Real accusing her of damaging the party and that she should resign. Sousa Real is calling these resignations "a sad show", and that her internal opposition is trying to oust her;

- The CHEGA controversy goes on and on. Mainly because the trainwreck CHEGA nominee for Deputy Speaker is giving more and more TV interviews. The last one sparked controversy as Diogo Pacheco de Amorim, CHEGA's nominee, said, on SIC TV, that in Portugal "our origin color is white and our race is caucasian", adding that Portugal had always good relations with other races during the age of the Portuguese Empire;

- CHEGA is also in the middle on another controversy as PM Costa has excluded CHEGA and Ventura from meetings before the swearing in of the new government. In the next few days, Costa has arranged meetings with business leaders, universities, health specialists, party leaders and others but excluded CHEGA from the meetings. Ventura is accusing Costa of showing already "worrying tics";

- Overseas ballots are starting to be processed and counted. The process will start this afternoon and will continue tomorrow. Ballots received until tomorrow will be counted;

[Mike88]

- Overseas ballots are starting to be processed and counted. The process will start this afternoon and will continue tomorrow. Ballots received until tomorrow will be counted;

Overseas ballots are now being counted in Lisbon city. According to reports, more than 230,000 ballots were received, but there is already a controversy in the counting. The PSD is protesting that many ballots are being processed and counted without having an ID copy in them. The party says this is illegal and doesn't want these ballots counted. The PS is against the PSD protests, saying that it was agreed between parties to count ballots without an ID, but the PSD responded by saying that their own party tribunal warned that it was illegal and they should prevent those ballots to be counted. The PSD warns that in many countries, there could have been fraud and that the ID copy is a safeguard that the ballot has not been violated. The Electoral Commission has yet to make a decision.

4 seats are at play with these overseas ballots: 2 from Europe, and another 2 for the Rest of the World.

[Mike88]

First results of the overseas ballots - Berlin, Germany

35.5% PS
16.7% PSD
11.4% BE
  7.0% Livre
  6.8% PAN
  5.5% IL
  4.6% CDU
  4.4% CHEGA
  2.1% Volt Portugal
  6.0% Others/Invalid

29.7% Turnout (1,553 ballots)

[Mike88]

Barcelona, Spain. 16.3% Turnout (2,036 ballots)

33.9% PS
25.6% PSD
  6.9% BE
  6.6% CHEGA
  6.1% IL
  4.6% PAN
  3.4% CDU
  2.5% Livre
  2.1% CDS
  1.8% PCTP/MRPP
  6.5% Others/Invalid

Results from here: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

[Mike88]

Madrid, Spain: 19.0% Turnout (3,421 ballots)

34.5% PSD
32.9% PS
  6.2% IL
  5.2% CHEGA
  4.4% CDS
  4.0% BE
  3.2% PAN
  2.4% CDU
  1.3% PCTP/MRPP
  1.0% Livre
  4.9% Others/Invalid

[Mike88]

So far, 21 counting tables have been nullified because staff mixed processed ballots with ballots that were being put on hold because of no ID copy. This was because of the PSD complaint, in which the Electoral Commission was advising counting tables to separate ballots. The Commission also said that a "friends meeting" to see how ballots should be counted, isn't the right way to solve things and that parties should have changed the laws. The PS is furious and is threatening to go to the Courts.

[Mike88]

Lyon, France: 17.5% Turnout (9,975 ballots)

47.5% PS
24.8% PSD
  8.1% CHEGA
  3.4% PAN
  2.8% BE
  1.7% CDU
  1.4% CDS
  1.2% PCTP/MRPP
  1.0% MPT
  1.0% IL
  7.1% Others/Invalid

[Mike88]

Counting so far:

Europe (2 seats), 36% counted:

42.6% PS
26.0% PSD
  7.9% CHEGA
  4.2% BE
  4.0% PAN
  2.6% IL
  2.5% CDU
  1.8% CDS
  1.4% Livre
  1.1% PCTP/MRPP
  5.9% Others/Invalid

Outside Europe (2 seats), 17% counted:

38.0% PSD
25.0% PS
10.0% CHEGA
  6.5% PAN
  4.7% IL
  2.7% CDS
  2.2% BE
  1.2% NC
  1.2% ADN
  1.1% Alliance
  1.0% MPT
  1.0% CDU
  5.4% Others/Invalid

- PS won Spain by a 35-29% margin over the PSD;
- PS is leading in Germany with a 42-26% lead over PSD;
- In France, PS is leading 47-24% over the PSD;
- PSD won Angola by a 48-29% margin over the PS;
- In Brazil, PSD is also leading by a 37-24% margin over the PS. CHEGA at 10%;