🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Velasco]

The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?

Just running alone in Madeira, and running in a coalition with PSD.CDS in the Azores.

The latter of which has lost and fairly badly in the famous island of Corvo. Alas.

Possibly that's because the island's teacher is not the candidate

[Mike88]

Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre

[Mello]

I'm catching up, football oblige, but I think PS will get an absolute majority.

In a way, sort of a silver lining for the parties at the Socialists' left.

As for CDS, I really doubt they'll elect anyone. As of now, the projection for the last MPs from Lisboa look like this:

Lisboa CH 1.93 46 Sim Pedro Manuel de Andrade Pessanha Fernandes
Lisboa PCP 1.90 47 Sim Duarte Le Falher de Campos Alves
Lisboa IL 1.90 48 Sim Bernardo Alves Martinho Amaral Blanco
Lisboa PS 1.88 49 Não João Miguel Maçarico Nicolau
Lisboa PSD 1.82 50 Não Alexandre Bernardo de Macedo e Lopes Simões
Lisboa PS 1.80 51 Não Ricardo Jorge Monteiro Lima
Lisboa PS 1.72 52 Não Vera Lúcia Raimundo Braz dos Santos
Lisboa PSD 1.69 53 Não João Carlos da Silva Bastos Dias Coelho
Lisboa       CDS  1.66 54     Não  Francisco José Nina Martins Rodrigues dos Santos

[Mike88]

And PS just went ahead in Leiria. Could be a first. A clean sweep except Madeira.

1991 vibes... when Cavaco only lost Beja by 1,000 votes.

[Boobs]

The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.

[Mike88]

PSD lost Leiria, a first for the party.

[Rikschard]

Most left wing parish in 2019, São Martinho, Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal, this year:

44,5 CDU (-18,8)
41,2 PS (+12,7)
5,3   PSD
1,6   CH
1,2   BE
0,8   CDS
0,8   IL

And the most right wing, Boalhosa, Ponte de Lima, Viana do Castelo:

43,1 CDS (-32,2)
27,8 PSD (+10,0)
22,2 PS (+18,1)
5,7   CH

[Mike88]

Most left wing parish in 2019, São Martinho, Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal, this year:

44,5 CDU (-18,8)
41,2 PS (+12,7)
5,3   PSD
1,6   CH
1,2   BE
0,8   CDS
0,8   IL

And the most right wing, Boalhosa, Ponte de Lima, Viana do Castelo:

43,1 CDS (-32,2)
27,8 PSD (+10,0)
22,2 PS (+18,1)
5,7   CH

It's quite astonishing that the two main parties are growing in terms of votes, but the total transfer of votes for the leftwing to the PS, is smashing the PSD.

[jaichind]

The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.

But a good part of the uncalled seats are in Lisboa and Porto where PS is unlikely to get a majority of the remaining seats.

[Niemeyerite]

The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.

But a good part of the uncalled seats are in Lisboa and Porto where PS is unlikely to get a majority of the remaining seats.

But, as explained, they don't need a majority. Just 39%.

[jaichind]

By my count, PS will get 13 more seats from Lisboa and 5 more from Porto on top of the 95 already called for them.  Yeah, that puts them at 113 already so I guess PS majority is going to take place since there are more seats for them to win from the various other places

[Mello]

I estimate PS will end up with 116 to 119 seats. It's implausible they won't reach the majority as the freguesias still out shouldn't be particularly weak for them.

Difficult to see how Catarina Martins can stay as BE's leader after this debacle. Martins, Sousa, Rio, Chicão - 4 out of 7 leaders will soon be gone.

Corvo has had interesting politics the last couple of decades, with PPM, featuring the island's teacher, and CDS, featuring the island's mailman, often having great results.

[Rikschard]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

[Mike88]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

[Rikschard]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Yup, in Seixal where I vote PS got its best result ever (46%), while CDU didn't even reach 10%...

[Red Velvet]

46 seats left and PS only needs 16 of those. They’re going to make it!

Bloco de Esquerda (BE) is clearly the main loser of this election. Not bad, it was a disaster for them.

Considering only the 184 (of the 230 total) seats distributed so far:

PS 100 (+11)
PSD 66 (+1)
CHEGA 8 (+8)
PCP-PEV 4 (-4)
I.LIBERAL 4 (+4)
BE 2 (-12)

[Boobs]

Seems like the remaining seat allocations are basically pointing to a majority.

Currently at 103 PS

If PS gets the same # of seats as in 2019 (this is a minimum, will certainly get more as they've gotten a higher % in all of these places)

+ 10 minimum Lisboa
+ 2 minimum Setubal
+ 2 minimum Expat
+ 1 Azores

118 seats.

Sorry for your cope Jaichind. But it was fun to watch.

[Mike88]

The next Parliament will also be one the most bipolarized in recent history: PS+PSD are set to dominate more than 85% of the seats.

[Mello]

IL gets a seat in Braga as the last parish drops.

They'll end up the night with 8 seats: 4 from Lisboa, 2 from Porto, 1 from Setubal and 1 from Braga.

After campaigning heavily in Braga with hopes of getting back the seat they lost in 2019, the PCP gets 2.6% and the 6th spot. This isn't the slow death I wrote about earlier.

[crals]

It's over, I guess... Left-wing voters have made their choice. They prefer stability to ideological purity. Hopefully giving PS so much power won't backfire.

[jeron]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Any thoughts on why the leftwing did this badly?

[jaichind]

Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?

[Rikschard]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Any thoughts on why the leftwing did this badly?

Two reasons, I think: Left wing voters didn't understand the failure to pass the budget, and were very upset with the political crisis that was uncalled for. And tactical voting, due to close polls, that actually weren't.

[Red Velvet]

34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)

[crals]

Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?

It's unlikely. They don't get along, and with a PS majority they will have more room to breathe.