🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Council of State meeting held this afternoon. Majority of members voted for the dissolution of Parliament:

Adding to this, President Marcelo had a "minor car accident" after the end of the meeting...

https://twitter.com/fasf2000/status/1456005919922327560

Marcelo being... well, Marcelo. (And of course, thank you CMTV )

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Q1: Should the President dissolve Parliament and call an election?

59% Yes
25% No
16% Undecided

Q2: Who's the main responsible for the rejection of the 2022 budget?

28% PS
21% BE
18% PCP
11% PSD
  2% Others
20% Undecided

Q3: Should the government resign?

44% No
41% Yes
15% Undecided

Q4: Who do you think will win the elections?

43% PS
29% PSD
  6% Other
22% Undecided

Q5: Will the winner of the elections achieve an absolute majority?

68% No
20% Yes
12% Undecided

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

[Mike88]

Also, today, Parliament will discuss and vote the new Euthanasia bill after the Constitutional Court rejected the first draft:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1456024906399899657

Euthanasia returns to Parliament, PS and PSD give freedom to vote again

Parliament will discuss today, and tomorrow vote, on the new Euthanasia legalization bill after the Constitutional Court rejection of the first draft in the beginning of the year. However, the discussion is being controversial because of the ongoing political crisis and imminent dissolution of Parliament. Parties on the right, PSD/CDS/CHEGA, say that this discussion is being hasty and accuse the leftwing parties of forcing the discussion without any reason. Even in the PS the situation is also tense as some don't know if indeed it's the right time to discuss this again. The new bill has been drafted by PS, BE, PAN, PEV and IL. In terms of votes, PS and PSD has given their MPs freedom of vote in the bill vote tomorrow, 5th November.

[Mike88]

General elections called for 30 January 2022. President Marcelo just announced in a live speech.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

38.5% PS (+0.9)
24.4% PSD (-0.8 )
  8.8% BE (+1.0)
  7.7% CHEGA (nc)
  4.7% IL (-0.8 )
  4.6% CDU (-0.2)
  2.8% PAN (-1.8 )
  2.0% CDS (+1.1)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

[Mike88]

Parliament votes: New Euthanasia bill approved, and change of the Constitutional Court to Coimbra rejected

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1456606652686381061

Parliament approves euthanasia again. Bill goes to Belém next week

Parliament has approved the new Euthanasia bill and it will be sent to President Marcelo next week. The new bill, to change some points that led the Constitutional Court to reject the original bill last March, passed with 138 votes, 84 against and 5 abstentions:

138 Yes (97 PS, 13 PSD, BE, PEV, IL, 2 Independents)
  84 No (61 PSD, 7 PS, PCP, CDS, CHEGA)
    5 Abstention (3 PSD, 2 PS)

Parliament also voted in the controversial proposal to transfer the Constitutional Court from Lisbon to Coimbra, proposed by the PSD. After the controversial response of the Court, which said that moving to Coimbra would "discrediting", and then tried to retract their position, the proposal failed to reach the 2/3 majority in order to pass. The vote was the following:

109 Yes (PSD, 5 PS, BE, CDS, IL)
    9 No (5 PS, PAN, CHEGA)
108 Abstention (94 PS, PCP, PEV, 2 Independents)

[VPH]

Who were the 7 PS members voting against euthanasia? Props to them and to the PCP for holding strong against it.

[Mike88]

Who were the 7 PS members voting against euthanasia? Props to them and to the PCP for holding strong against it.

Looking at the Parliamentary TV feed, they were:

- Ascenso Simões (Vila Real);
- Pedro Cegonho (Lisbon);
- Joaquim Barreto (Braga);
- Cristina Sousa (Guarda);
- José Luís Carneiro (Porto);
- Maria da Graça Reis (Viseu);
- Romualda Fernandes (Lisbon);

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

39% PS (+1)
30% PSD (+2)
  7% BE (-1)
  5% CDU (nc)
  5% CHEGA (-1)
  5% IL (nc)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% CDS (-1)
  4% Others/Invalid (nc)

Q1: Who do you blame for the budget rejection?

37% PS and Costa
31% BE and CDU
  5% PSD
  4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
23% Undecided

Q2: Will any party gain from the budget rejection?

47% Yes
46% No
  7% Undecided

Q3: If so, which one?

22% PSD
17% CHEGA
12% PS
  8% CDS
  5% IL
  3% BE
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
30% Undecided

Q4: Faced with the budget rejection, what should President Marcelo have done?

53% Allow the government to propose a new budget
42% Dissolve Parliament and call a general election
  5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 October and 4 November 2021. Polled 878 voters. MoE of 3.30%.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

Is there any reason why Inês Sousa Real would be the only party leader without a net negative approval rating? Is it just the fact that PAN is a mostly inoffensive new minor party that seems to always be on the sidelines? I find it especially interesting that she is more well-liked than Cotrim Figueiredo, who should have similar advantages (and indeed, to be fair, both got a much better result than any other non-Costa leader).

[Mike88]

Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

Is there any reason why Inês Sousa Real would be the only party leader without a net negative approval rating? Is it just the fact that PAN is a mostly inoffensive new minor party that seems to always be on the sidelines? I find it especially interesting that she is more well-liked than Cotrim Figueiredo, who should have similar advantages (and indeed, to be fair, both got a much better result than any other non-Costa leader).

I think, yeah, it's because PAN is basically inoffensive, and people just don't know her very well, as just 50% have a positive or negative opinion of her. Cotrim Figueiredo is very disliked by the left, and the right has some issues about him, especially if you are a PSD voter, probably, as they find him "fishy". Also, this seems to be the first poll, in around 5 years or so, that has Costa with a negative rating as party leader.

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper on the PSD leadership:

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

All voters, vote share %:

43% Rui Rio
32% Paulo Rangel
25% Others/Undecided

PSD voters, vote share %:

48% Rui Rio
41% Paulo Rangel
11% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 October and 4 November 2021. Polled 878 voters. MoE of 3.30%.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Party will decide today if it will advance the date of the leadership ballot to late or early November.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1456984788691296259

PSD National Council meets to approve internal calendar

The PSD is holding, this Saturday, a snap National Council meeting to discuss a possible advance of the leadership ballot. The current date is December 4th, but PSD leader Rui Rio, changed course in the last few days and announced that it would propose advancing the election to mid or late November in order to resolve the issue rapidly. This move surprised many as Rio's tone, for some time now, was that the leadership election should actually be postponed to a date after the general elections. Rangel is open to changing the election date, but doesn't want it too early. Rio is proposing the ballot to be held on 20 November, while Rangel proposes 27 November. The party councillors will decide the date.

[Mike88]

André Ventura easily wins CHEGA's leadership election:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1457080526028804097

André Ventura re-elected president of Chega with 94.78% of the votes

Without any surprises, Ventura was easily re-elected with almost 95% of the votes. His challenger, Carlos Natal, won just 5%. The overall results were the following:

94.8% André Ventura
  5.2% Carlos Natal

20.0% Turnout

Just around 4,000 party members cast a ballot out of around 20,000. The total membership of the party is around 40,000, but only half paid their party fees in time to be registered to vote.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Party will decide today if it will advance the date of the leadership ballot to late or early November.

The PSD voted to advance their leadership election to 27 November, instead of 4 December.

The party's congress, will be held between 17-19 December. It was a long meeting, more than 9 hours, in which there were several back and forwards, negotiations, talks, no deals and, at the end, the vote of 3 proposals: One to postpone the election, proposed by Alberto João Jardim, other to advance the ballot to 20 November and open to all party members, proposed by Rio, and a final one, proposed by Rangel, for an advance of the ballot to 27 November. Only Rangel's proposal was approved. One of the main topics of disagreement between Rio and Rangel, which at a certain point were close to reach an agreement, was Rio's proposal to open the ledership ballot to all PSD members, even those without their party's fees paid. At the end, the PSD tribunal said that this proposal colided with the party's rules.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio on the PSD leadership:

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

All voters, vote share %:

38% Rui Rio
31% Paulo Rangel
31% Undecided/No opinion

PSD voters, vote share %:

54% Rui Rio
37% Paulo Rangel
  9% Undecided/No opinion

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

[Mike88]

Costa asks for a stable majority and that it wouldn't be dangerous the PS having a absolute majority:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1457818254823628800?cxt=HHwWgIC9ndP-mrsoA...

Interview with Prime Minister António Costa.

In his first public interview after the fall of his government and the calling of a snap election for 30 January 2022, PM Costa asked for a stable majority on election day, and, without asking for an absolute majority, he said it wouldn't be dangerous if the PS indeed had one, as he would always be open to dialogue. He acknowledged that the "Geringonça" deal is basically over but put also blame on BE and PCP. He added that the BE and PCP should had be open to more discussion, but he admitted that a deal would be very difficult. Regarding the elections, Costa said that if the PS loses, he will resign from the PS leadership in order to open a "new cycle". He also announced that several measures that were in the draft 2022 budget, like the minimun wage increase to 705 euros, increase of in public employees wages by through inflation and update of pensions.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Rui Rio refuses debates with Paulo Rangel and will not campaign against him, but plan the party's campaign for the general elections.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1458119956256595970?cxt=HHwWhICpif6XpL...

Rui Rio renounces the internal campaign to focus on the general election

PSD leader Rui Rio announced, yesterday, that he will not campaign for the PSD leadership election or attack his opponent, Paulo Rangel, and will instead plan the PSD campaign for the general election and focus his attacks on Costa and the PS. Mr Rio also said he will not accept debates with Mr Rangel as, according to him, will hurt the party's image in a period very close to the general elections. He added that he feels he's the best to defeat Costa. Paulo Rangel reacted by mocking Rio for finally wainting to be "a real opposition" against Costa, but said that it would be important for PSD members to have a debate.

Pundits are split in their reactions. Some say this is a smart move from Rio, as it puts pressure on Rangel, while others say that Rio is just desperate and wants to "run away" from his party's internal debate.

[Mike88]

PS planning to not make any government deals after the elections:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1458351930892333061?cxt=HHwWisC95dfWjb0oAAAA

PS will not make government deals if they win the elections

After Costa's interview on RTP, where the PM opened the door to deals on both the left and the right, there has been speculation of what's the PS strategy. Today, Público newspaper reports that the Socialists strategy is to not make any deals in order to govern with anyone. They want to negotiate bill by bill, and not persue an overall agreement or deal. The goal is to have bill supported by the left and others supported by the right. A PS leadership member confirmed this info to the newspaper. However, this strategy could collide with President Marcelo. The media has also been reporting that if the elections don't result in a clear winner, the President could force a "deal" between the leftwing parties or between the two main parties, PS and PSD, in order to at least pass budgets.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:

Vote share %:

40% PS (+3)
26% PSD (-3)
10% CHEGA (+4)
  6% CDU (-1)
  5% BE (-4)
  2% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (+1)
  1% CDS (nc)
  2% Others (-2)
  6% Blank/Invalid (+1)
  
Government's job approval:

48% Disapprove (+10)
44% Approve (-11)
  8% Undecided (+1)

Party leaders approval ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

5.4 António Costa (-0.8 )
4.3 Rui Rio (-0.6)
4.0 Catarina Martins (-0.3)
3.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
3.2 Inês Sousa Real (new)
3.1 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
3.0 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.6 André Ventura (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 21 October and 1 November 2021. Polled 800 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.

[CumbrianLefty]

A move back to the PS since the new election was announced, interesting.

[Mike88]

A move back to the PS since the new election was announced, interesting.

Polling, so far, has indeed shown that the PS isn't losing votes after the budget crisis and the election call, and I believe this has mainly two reasons: an emotional reaction from leftwing voters who are pissed with the BE and CDU, and the current leadership "vacancy" in the PSD. Because, at the same time, it's interesting that Costa and his government have never been this unpopular, as polls also show his ratings and those of his cabinet plummeting.

However, it's still very early as things are still very unstable and there has been a lot of changes, and more could still yet come that could, again, change everything.

[crals]

This is why the PS didn't try very hard to reach a budget agreement. At the end of the day left-wing voters, even those who blame the government, prefer to see results than instability, and the rejected budget was already quite generous in some aspects.

[Mike88]

This is why the PS didn't try very hard to reach a budget agreement. At the end of the day left-wing voters, even those who blame the government, prefer to see results than instability, and the rejected budget was already quite generous in some aspects.

I disagree a bit. I think that the Government gave in on all what they could, but the leftwing parties felt that the PS was also weak, coming out of the local elections, and pressed for more and more. The PS would never concede in matters like Labour laws, for example, as it would alienate the business sector and the relations between bosses and the Government are already very tense. The fact that the PS didn't forged a deal in 2019 also removes a lot of ground for their "victim strategy", and polls already show that voters also blame the PS for this whole crisis.

Of course many leftwing voters are upset with the budget rejection as they are angry and demoralized at the same time, but, in my view, we are still in "reaction phase" and I have big doubts that many BE/CDU 2019 voters will vote PS and what could happen is a pretty big abstention rate in that area. A PS sole budget would be completely different than a PS budget with BE/PCP supporting it, not to mention that Costa is already changing strategy and opening the door to a possible negotiation with the PSD if there's a PS minority after the elections.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (+2.2)
28.1% PSD (+3.5)
  7.7% BE (-2.0)
  6.3% CHEGA (-2.3)
  5.3% CDU (-0.2)
  4.4% PAN (+1.1)
  4.2% IL (-1.3)
  2.0% CDS (+0.6)
  0.2% Livre (-0.2)
  2.8% Others/Invalid (-1.4)

Party leaders approval ratings: (in a scale between 1 and 5)

3.2 António Costa (-0.1)
2.8 Rui Rio (nc)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (-0.1)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.6 Catarina Martins (-0.4)
2.4 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.4)
2.3 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.3)
1.9 André Ventura (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 5 and 11 November 2021. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%.