🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

Bad news for basically everyone except Chega and IL, I fear.

[Mike88]

Bad news for basically everyone except Chega and IL, I fear.

Yeah, no one gains from a snap election at the moment, except CHEGA and IL: The PS is tired and is still hurt by the local election results plus, this budget negotiations with the government giving everything they had to try to please the leftwing, didn't give a strong picture of the government; the PSD is in an internal battle and I have a hunch that Rio will use this as a way to try to cancel the leadership elections, again, which will raise tensions in the party; BE could be hurt by voting against the budget; PCP is in a lose-lose situation, let it pass and continue their decline or vote against and be punished. PAN is not a factor and CDS is in deep fall.

The situation is a bit similar to 2001/2002, but the PSD is divided about the leadership and President Marcelo wants a strong PSD to face the PS. Again, if nothing changes until Wednesday, Costa could still try to present a new budget and delay things a bit, but Marcelo could refuse it. We are in a completely uncharted territory

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is now speaking to reporters. He said that he was just given the news, but he will wait until Wednesday and talk to party leaders. But, he pressed that if there's no budget on Wednesday, there will be a dissolution and snap elections.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Whoa... this is shocking. I will wait and see until Wednesday - I trust this thread's timely updates - but I cannot imagine exactly how things could change in these two days. It seems that Costa has massively failed at triangulating. When would a snap election be held if it happens? Would it conflict temporally with the PSD's leadership election?

[Mike88]

Whoa... this is shocking. I will wait and see until Wednesday - I trust this thread's timely updates - but I cannot imagine exactly how things could change in these two days. It seems that Costa has massively failed at triangulating. When would a snap election be held if it happens? Would it conflict temporally with the PSD's leadership election?

Making predictions right now regarding Portuguese politics is useless, because you will probably fail. xD Seriously, everything that was expected a month ago turned out exactly the opposite way. You're right by saying that it's very difficult for any side to retract their positions in the next two days, because if they indeed change their minds it would be seen even worse. But, who knows, let's see what happens on Wednesday.

Costa's gamble was clear: have a strong result in the local elections, propose a budget, if BE/PCP threatened to reject it, warn of the risks of them being wiped out and fight for a majority. But, everything happened exactly the opposite way: the PS got a bad result in the local elections as did PCP and BE, and the leftwing parties decided to press the PS, as they were also weak. The PS gave everything they got to the PCP and BE but it was never enough. And the image it gave was of a government dependent on extreme parties and that was alienating the other side, business leaders, moderates, etc. Not a very good picture. If there's an election, Costa could still ask for a majority but, let's be serious, if he didn't got one in 2019, when he was much more popular, he will probably not get one now. And then how can he govern? PCP and BE are demanding too much and this will probably hurt them, but Costa is also in a delicate situation for allowing this to reach this far.

If the budget is rejected on Wednesday, Marcelo will dissolve Parliament and is forced to call an election in 55 days. That means an election somewhere between mid and late January 2022, however, this could be delayed as the President would still have to hear parties, hear the Council of State and then call an election, so this could take a while still. And of course this clashes with the PSD leadership race. Rio has hinted that if there's a snap election, he will ask for another vote in the PSD National Council to postpone the leadership election. He already lost the first vote about two weeks ago, losing another would be disaster for him, and his opponent, Paulo Rangel, doesn't want to postpone the leadership race. And then there's President Marcelo, who wants a strong PSD against the PS, but doesn't want Rio at the helm. Will this influence the call of an election date by the President? No one knows.

The situation is becoming messy...

[Mike88]

PEV, Ecological Green Party (PCP's satelite party) will also vote against. No surprise here.

Also, PM Costa has called an emergency cabinet meeting for this evening. In Parliament, the Labour minister, Ana Paula Godinho, has said the government is still open to negotiate.

[Mike88]

2022 budget: Debate starts this afternoon with the crucial vote tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1452926954487832577

OE2022: Parliament starts budget debate under threat of political crisis

The 2022 budget debate will start this afternoon in Parliament with parties and the government discussing the draft and the possible political crisis surrounding it. PM Costa speech is very awaited after the PCP announcement of voting against the budget and after the emergency cabinet meeting of late last night. Currently, parties on the left, PS-BE-PCP, are accusing each other of being responsible for the ongoing crisis: the government continues to press that this is the most leftwing budget ever and that BE and PCP are being irresponsible, adding that they are still open for more talks; BE accuses the PS in being interested in snap elections and the budget doesn't resolve any of the country's main problems; PCP is responding to the government attacks by revealing the details of the negotiations with the government and that the PS/Government didn't address any of the Communists main policies.

In the case of a snap election, PS is already refusing any more agreements with the left, while on the right there's still the ongoing division regarding CHEGA.

[Mike88]

Crisis looming also in the Azores: IL is ready to reject the PSD regional budget because of SATA airlines.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1452962588472586253

IL votes against Azores Budget if Government maintains "plan and indebtedness"

If in the mainland there's a political crisis looming, in the Azores another may be forming. The current PSD/CDS/PPM minority government, with the outside support of IL, CHEGA and a CHEGA dissident, has always been shaky and now it seems it could break. The reason seems to be SATA airlines, the Azorean regional airline, and the inclusion of 133 million euros in the regional budget for the capital increase of SATA. IL is demanding a new budget where that would reduce the level of indebtedness to SATA. José Manuel Bolieiro, Azores President, reacted by saying that the regional government and political parties have to assume their responsibilities and that the government is working to present a budget to the regional Parliament.

Snap regional elections could also be inevitable in the Azores during 2022. In the local elections, the PSD gained a lot of ground in the islands, while the PS lost significantly. Could this be a prelude of a snap regional election? I would like to hear Crals opinion.

[Josecardoso17]

2022 budget: Debate starts this afternoon with the crucial vote tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1452926954487832577

OE2022: Parliament starts budget debate under threat of political crisis

The 2022 budget debate will start this afternoon in Parliament with parties and the government discussing the draft and the possible political crisis surrounding it. PM Costa speech is very awaited after the PCP announcement of voting against the budget and after the emergency cabinet meeting of late last night. Currently, parties on the left, PS-BE-PCP, are accusing each other of being responsible for the ongoing crisis: the government continues to press that this is the most leftwing budget ever and that BE and PCP are being irresponsible, adding that they are still open for more talks; BE accuses the PS in being interested in snap elections and the budget doesn't resolve any of the country's main problems; PCP is responding to the government attacks by revealing the details of the negotiations with the government and that the PS/Government didn't address any of the Communists main policies.

In the case of a snap election, PS is already refusing any more agreements with the left, while on the right there's still the ongoing division regarding CHEGA.

The situation looks very strange and there is no way to predict how its gonna goo..
If Ps wins a snap election and the situation stays all the same ,it needs to accept PCP´s and BE´s demands and it will look quite awkward....
But i see some PS´s supporters talking in social media that this action is just giving the next government to the right ,a think i find quite absurd.
I think that only if a major "political earthquake " happens we will have a new goverment in January.
But its still hard to predict how the political players will act

[Mike88]

The situation looks very strange and there is no way to predict how its gonna goo..
If Ps wins a snap election and the situation stays all the same ,it needs to accept PCP´s and BE´s demands and it will look quite awkward....
But i see some PS´s supporters talking in social media that this action is just giving the next government to the right ,a think i find quite absurd.
I think that only if a major "political earthquake " happens we will have a new goverment in January.
But its still hard to predict how the political players will act

Like I said in my post yesterday, any prediction anyone makes is gonna fail, probably, but it's almost certain that the budget is going to fall, the first in almost 50 years, historic, and it's too little too late for both BE or PCP to retract their positions without not looking  as a bunch of fools. Yeah, I've also seen on social media, and also talking to some, PS supporters freaking out for no apparent reason. Yes, the rightwing could be benefit a bit but it's very difficult for the PSD to win, in my opinion. But, who knows frankly... all of this is just messy.

Also, curious "visitors" in the Presidential Palace this afternoon. Rio's challenger for the PSD leadership, Paulo Rangel, met with President Marcelo as did the new mayor of Lisbon Carlos Moedas. Rio wants snap elections as quick as possible to deviate from the leadership race, while Rangel wants a later election in order to win the party. Marcelo has said he also wants a quick election. We'll see.

[Mike88]

It seems that President Marcelo was even more active than just receiving Paulo Rangel at the Presidential palace:

- Marcelo talked with the President of the Region of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque, in order for him to let the 3 PSD MPs from Madeira to vote in favour of the budget. PSD leader Rui Rio learned about this on TV and rapidly called Mr Albuquerque who told him that the Madeira MPs will not vote in favour of the budget. Shortly after, Rio told the press that "Madeira isn't for sale". Rio was also clearly upset and stunned when reporters told him about the Marcelo-Rangel meeting:

https://twitter.com/TTduty/status/1453099177903337480

Reporter: Did you talk with Mr Rangel about the issue, the President of the Republic?
Rio: That the... the...
Reporter: The issue that Mr Rangel was received by President Marcelo, this afternoon, in Belém.
Rio: The President of the Republic received Mr Paulo Rangel? To deal with?
Reporter: We don't know. It's just a note published by the Presidential Palace

- There's also another plot twist: the leftwing parties, BE, CDU and PAN don't want a snap election but rather for Costa to propose another budget. There's also the idea that the budget could not be put up for a vote but go ahead to the discussion policy by policy until the ultimate final vote on late November;

This whole situation is becoming more and more ridiculous... And turning into a House of Cards episode (with bad quality, of course xD)

[Mike88]

2022 budget: Second day of discussion and vote in Parliament.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1453245186105122827

Assembly of the Republic votes on budget proposal this Wednesday, with rejection in sight

Today is the final day of discussion and vote of the 2022 budget draft. Yesterday was an intense day, full with backroom meetings and "back stabbings" that made everything even more confusing. With just a few hours left, no side seems to be budging and the budget rejection seems to be a forgone conclusion. However, there are last minutes pleas:

- PS is asking the PSD to let the budget pass. On TSF radio, PS deputy secretary, José Luís Carneiro, said that "it would be a lesson in politics" if the PSD didn't reject the budget, adding that the PS has no cards up their sleeve;

- President Marcelo is being criticized for his movements yesterday and the PSD is very uncomfortable with the whole situation. PSD leader Rui Rio, which was stunned by the events in the Presidential Palace, said this morning that a President receiving a putative candidate for the leadership and discussing the PSD elections is unacceptable and weird;

[Mike88]

More movements in the PSD:

Paulo Rangel has gather enough signatures to call for an emergency PSD National Council meeting to change the date of the party's congress from January 2022 to 18 December 2021. The election day would remain on December 4th. Rui Rio seems to be ok with this, but could still also present a motion to postpone the elections, again.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1453360360518524938

Rangel will anticipate the congress and already has enough signatures to call a meeting

The media also reports that if the budget indeed falls, Marcelo is considering calling election to 13 February 2022. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Costa just asked for a "stable and durable majority" in his speech in Parliament.

The budget vote is about to start.

[Mike88]

THE BUDGET IS REJECTED.

117 Against (PSD, BE, PCP, CDS, PEV, CHEGA and IL)
108 In favour (PS)
    5 Abstention (PAN, IND MPs Joacina Katar Moreira and Cristina Rodrigues)

First time a budget is rejected in democracy. Snap elections now imminent.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is expected to met with Speaker Ferro Rodrigues and PM António Costa this evening.

The President will also met with party leaders next Saturday, 30 October, and will convene the Council of State for next Wednesday, 3 November.

[Mike88]

Ok this is hilarious....

Reporters were all in front of the Presidential Palace when, all of the sudden, President Marcelo appeared, confusion was installed, a reporter fell to the ground, because of the confusion, and Marcelo calmly helped the reporter and went to a near by... ATM to pay some bills. Classic.

https://twitter.com/BarbaDeCamelo/status/1453426554881593347
https://twitter.com/_andrecferreira/status/1453425793250603010

[xelas81]

I'm correct to assume that possibility of anyone-but-PS government is zero?

[Josecardoso17]

I'm correct to assume that possibility of anyone-but-PS government is zero?

yep

[Mike88]

I'm correct to assume that possibility of anyone-but-PS government is zero?

yep

It's the most likely outcome, but frankly no one knows. Everything in the last month was completely unexpected, from the local election results, to the budget negotiations and now with the budget vote. Making predictions now is quite risky.

[President Johnson]

Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.

[Mike88]

Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.

Like I said in my post above, anything is possible. Of course Costa is also to blame for this ending, and his party just came out from a complicated local elections result, but no one knows what will happen. Everything is still up in the air, and, we need polls, reliable ones specially.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And... it has happened. I reckon this is a historic moment. The turns that the whole political situation is taking are quite intriguing and I am sure so many more are to come since a fairly long electoral campaign is inevitably looming on the horizon. I find particularly interesting that Marcelo is being so (unprecedentedly it seems) active - and I'm not talking about being active in paying his bills of course! Anyway, this is obviously not a good outcome but I'll be looking forward to the snap elections as a politics watcher.

[Farmlands]

Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.

Covid numbers have been consistently low recently and vaccination rates very high, it's unlikely that will be too much of an issue. Of course, the big news here is the budget crisis. It's just surprising that the PS made it work for 4 years with a much smaller range of options, before 2019, but couldn't do it again now.

[Mike88]

And... it has happened. I reckon this is a historic moment. The turns that the whole political situation is taking are quite intriguing and I am sure so many more are to come since a fairly long electoral campaign is inevitably looming on the horizon. I find particularly interesting that Marcelo is being so (unprecedentedly it seems) active - and I'm not talking about being active in paying his bills of course! Anyway, this is obviously not a good outcome but I'll be looking forward to the snap elections as a politics watcher.

Yep, first time in democracy (in almost 50 years) that a budget is rejected. The ongoing PSD leadership dispute will probably have an impact on the election date, as the "weird" meeting between Marcelo and Rangel, plus Rio's reaction, is proof, and is being interpreted as a stab in the back on Rio by the President. Marcelo is also being extremely (to not say ridiculously) active because he also gambled and, sort of, lost. His warnings that if the budget failed there would be an election was a way to put pressure on PS+BE/PCP to reach an agreement, but they didn't listen to the President. We'll see what happens. What a month this has been in Portuguese politics.

Covid numbers have been consistently low recently and vaccination rates very high, it's unlikely that will be too much of an issue. Of course, the big news here is the budget crisis. It's just surprising that the PS made it work for 4 years with a much smaller range of options, before 2019, but couldn't do it again now.

Covid is stable around here, so far, and elderly people are already receiving the 3rd shot plus a flu shot. Problems of NHS shortages and "chaos" are more likely to be an issue, as they already are. Costa's decision of not wanting a deal in 2019 came back to bite him, and the BE/PCP, especially PCP, are bleeding electorally because of their support to the PS minority, so this budget vote was literally a matter of survival for them. But they could also be punished for this.