🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Update on the ongoing "political crisis":

- President Marcelo is meeting parties, today, to discuss the budget and how things may play out;
- PSD announced they will vote against the budget;
- BE and PCP continue to press for changes in the budget or no deal. BE wants a written agreement with the Government;
- PM Costa wants to "stop the drama". In a visit to a school in Almeirim (Santarém), Costa asked to stop the current drama, to put focus on the essential and move the country forward;
- PSD MEP Paulo Rangel officially announced his candidacy to the PSD leadership, this afternoon, in a press conference;

[Mike88]

Big U-turn from the government: Fuel taxes will be reduced after weeks of denial from the government, although just temporarily.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1449064550603624452

Fuels: Government lowers ISP of gasoline by two cents and diesel by one

Facing big pressure because of the big rise of fuel costs for consumers, gasoline 98 is already at 2 euros per liter and the most consumed, gasoline 95, is nearing 1.9 euros per liter, the government decided to reduce the fuel tax by 2 cents until 31 January 2022. This is a big u-turn from the government as they have spent weeks saying that taxes could not be reduced and that people would have to get used to pay more for fuel. Several protests were being schedule against the rising fuel prices and the government's inaction.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Paulo Rangel officially announces his run, as there are more rumours that Rio may dropout.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1449123099388088333

Paulo Rangel says he has "all the conditions" to win the 2023 general elections

After yesterday's PSD meeting, MEP Paulo Rangel has officially announced his run for the PSD leadership. In a press conference, Mr Rangel says he wants to unite the PSD and accused Rui Rio of fomenting of "factions and tribes" within the party. He said he's ready to face António Costa in the 2023 elections, if they happen then, and said he's ready to propose a "galvanizing alternative" to attract voters to the PSD. If elected leader, he announced he will resign his seat in the European Parliament.

At the same time, there's more rumours that incumbent leader, Rui Rio, will not run again. The surprise defeat in the party's national council, yesterday, shocked Rio and left him wondering if he has enough support even in his own base, as the majority of councillors in that party structure are Rio appointees. Many media outlets are reporting that Rio's own team is more convinced he will not run, but only Rio, which is a very closed person, knows. A decision is expected in the next few days.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

[VPH]

So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

Rio is definitely on the left flank of the PSD. If his party wants to stem some of the bleeding to IL and CHEGA (for different reasons) it might be smart to move past him.

[Mike88]

So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

Rio is definitely on the left flank of the PSD. If his party wants to stem some of the bleeding to IL and CHEGA (for different reasons) it might be smart to move past him.

Yeah, the situation is a bit déja-vu, but the main players are in different positions now: Marcelo is in his second term and, of course, there's the long tradition in Presidential second terms of Presidents benefiting their political side; the PS, PCP and BE are weaker after the local elections, and the PSD feels more confident now than a year ago. However, no one knows how this will end. The leftwing parties are really "stretching the rope" to see how far it goes without breaking, as the electoral consequences for them are becoming a burden, mainly for the Communists. And the PS knows they are now trapped between the budget restrictions and the demands of the leftwing parties, plus, the prospect of a snap general election isn't, also, in the PS best interests as it's very difficult for them to increase their 2019 share and we would end up in the same government obstruction, just like what happened to Trudeau. So, we're in a position that is similar to the past, but the players are now pressing more and more which could have a different outcome than what we've been costumed to. We'll see.

Regarding the PSD, like I said in a few post before, the PSD isn't forgiving Rio's indecisive leadership in the last few years, and the local election results are being seen by the party like "if we can gain with him, just imagine without him". That's why the PSD is rebelling against Rio, the party feels stronger but doesn't want Rio anymore. It's a bit like what happened in the PS in 2014, in the Seguro vs Costa feud. António José Seguro was leader of the PS between 2011-2014, and he was able to put the PS back in a stronger position against the PSD, but he was still seen as unelectable and Costa challenged his leadership and became party leader, and later PM. Like Seguro, Rio was never loved by his party and always faced big internal blockades, and that's why it's unclear if he will run again, but, I don't know, knowing Rio maybe he will not go down without a fight.

[Mike88]

CHEGA candidate for the local elections detained for attempted murder against a Swedish family in the Alentejo region:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1449383526223081482

Shot against Swedish family in Moura "out of racial hatred"

A CHEGA candidate for the 26 September local election, in a parish in Moura, Beja, was arrested by police for attempted murder against a Swedish family. According to the police, the man fired several shots against a Swedish family with 7 children last 8 October following a discussion between the man and the family determined by racial hatred. The police added that the man chased the car the family was in and then tried to hide evidence by hiding or throwing away his gun. The man in question was present to a judge but wasn't sent to jail.

[VPH]

Interestingly that's the same place Ventura just got elected municipally, right? Yikes.

[Mike88]

Interestingly that's the same place Ventura just got elected municipally, right? Yikes.

Yep, he got elected as an Assembly member but failed his goal to be elected as Assembly President, he polled 3rd with 25% of the votes, behind the 35% of the PS and the 33% of CDU.

It seems that the candidate, Vítor Ramalho, which was elected as a parish assembly member in Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, made xenophobic comments to a man originated from Kurdistan but with Swedish nationality. The reasons of the discussion, and subsequent shooting, seem to have been about a parking spot, lol. Ventura has already reacted saying that "nothing moves us against minorities" and that no one can act on behalf of CHEGA and persue violent tactics.

Regarding the local elections, there are at least two reruns of parish elections today: One is Pernes parish, Santarém (PS incumbent), and in Cristelo, Paredes, Porto (PSD/CDS incumbent). Polls close at 8pm.

[Mike88]

Regarding the local elections, there are at least two reruns of parish elections today: One is Pernes parish, Santarém (PS incumbent), and in Cristelo, Paredes, Porto (PSD/CDS incumbent). Polls close at 8pm.

Election rerun results:

Cristelo parish (Paredes): PS gain from PSD/CDS.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

49.1% PS (+13.5)
48.9% PSD/CDS (-7.9)
  0.8% CDU (-1.2)
  1.1% Blank/Invalid (-2.4)

Pernes parish (Santarém): PS hold.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

43.2% PS (+5.3)
42.5% PSD (+5.6)
12.4% CDU (-10.3)
  1.9% Blank/Invalid (-0.7)

In Pernes, the PS got 7 more votes than the PSD, out of 923 ballots cast, while in Cristelo, just 3 votes separated PS and PSD, out of 1,225 ballots cast. Really close results.

[Mike88]

Local elections: Carlos Moedas takes the oath of office as Lisbon mayor, the first PSD mayor in 14 years.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1450163630444617728

Currencies promises to transform Lisbon into the “city of compassion that takes care of those in need”

Carlos Moedas took the oath of office as Lisbon mayor this afternoon, the first center-right mayor in 14 years in Lisbon city. In front of an audience, which the media noticed, full of PSD and center-right leaders and former leaders, Mr Moedas proposed turning Lisbon into a "fiscally friendly" city by pursuing a progressive and regular tax reduction, adding he wants more resources for ordinary Lisboners and that he trusts them and also announced his intention to give free public transport for young and old people. He said he will pursue an audit regarding the issues of housing and urban planning, some Lisbon urban plans are being investigated by the DA office, and announced he will redraft the bike paths plans, which were topic of controversy during the campaign with Moedas wanting to eliminate some bike paths. He also announced a Health plan for inhabitants above 65 years old that don't have a family doctor and also described his intention of building "a green and sustainable city" "made with people, not imposing the transition". Moedas, who will lead a minority cabinet, also said he will be a mayor of consensus and he believes solutions will be achieved.

Alongside Moedas, several other mayors are being sworn in and some curiouse coalitions are being forged:

- In Porto city, Rui Moreira and the PSD forged a deal to run the city. The PSD will not have representation in Moreira's cabinet but will support him. In exchange, Rui Moreira will support the PSD candidate for the Municipal Assembly Chair. During the campaign, PSD and Rui Moreira were bitter enemies;

- In Coimbra, the new mayor, José Manuel Silva (PSD), forged a deal with CDU in order to have a majority in the municipal assembly. The sole CDU councillor will also be part of Manuel Silva's cabinet;

- In Montijo city, (Setúbal), where the PS narrowly hold it, the PSD/CDS and CDU forged a deal to remove the incumbent PS Municipal Assembly chair and elect a new one from the PSD;

- In Seixal, CHEGA supported the election of a CDU Parish Assembly Chair, in Amora parish, and abstained in the Municipal Assembly thus ensuring the election of a CDU Municipal Assembly Chair. This is creating some tensions within the party;

[Mike88]

2022 budget crisis: BE sends the Government a list of demands as the Government signals openness to BE.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1449828830005239809

The nine proposals that BE will send to the Government

The budget crisis continues with both BE and PCP pressing the government. While PCP is continuing to be very persistent in their attack to the budget and demanding more concessions from the government, Costa is signaling a openness to BE. The PM asked BE to sent their list of demands and arranged a meeting with them this Tuesday. BE accepted, sent the list but is still skeptical regarding the government's will. The list of demands, 9 in total, is the following:

- Exclusiveness for Integrated Responsibility Centers (CRI) employees, organization that helps run the NHS;
- Creation of the career of Auxiliary Health Technician;
- End of expiry of collective labor contracts. Collective hirings conventions expire in 2023 and the government is willing to expand it to 2024. BE refuses;
- Reinstatement of the principle of the most favorable treatment of the worker, abolished in 2011 during the troika years;
- Overtime pay reinstatement;
- Return to 25 days of vacation, currently 22 day since 2012, also during the troika;
- More severance pay , from the current 12 days to 20 days;
- On Social Security (SS), end of penalties for early retirement;
- Also in SS, recalculation of pensions awarded between 2014 and 2018;

The Social Security issues could be a problem as the government isn't quite open to discuss that. We'll see how the meeting tomorrow play out.

[Mike88]

CHEGA candidate for the local elections detained for attempted murder against a Swedish family in the Alentejo region:

Update on this story: The CHEGA member who attacked the Swedish family has resigned from his post in the parish of Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, Beja district, where he was elected 3 weeks ago. CHEGA seems to have forced his resignation after a meeting with him.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Rui Rio will run for another term.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1450461507326603264

Rui Rio announces he is a candidate for the leadership of the PSD

After weeks of doubts, rumours and internal disputes, Rui Rio has announced he will run for the PSD leadership. He will run for a 3rd term and in a press release sent by his campaign manager, Salvador Malheiro, he says that after enough reflection about the state of the country, the results of the local elections and the "incomprehensible " internal division in the party, he decided to run again. Rio is expected to publically announce his run in a date yet to be announced.

He will face MEP Paulo Rangel, a former ally of his, in a leadership election on December 4th.

*Also, changed the title removing the local election date and adding the PSD leadership race date.

[Mike88]

2022 budget crisis: BE sends the Government a list of demands as the Government signals openness to BE.

Few progress in the Government-BE meeting, but a new meeting was schedule for this week but the date is still to be decided:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1450514681471422468

“There is no agreement”. Costa's meeting with the Bloc ends without white smoke. But with a new meeting planned

The Government-BE meeting to find some agreement on the 2022 budget ended with few or no progress. The BE says that there is no deal, but a new meeting is planned for also this week with a date yet to be announced. According to BE, the government showed little openness for the majority of their proposals and only regarding the NHS, did Costa's team showed some openness, but still a very shy one, according to the party leader, Catarina Martins. BE is now waiting for the new meeting.

So far, no progress in the negotiations. The budget debate will be next week with a vote schedule for 27 October.

[Mike88]

2022 budget crisis: BE sends the Government a list of demands as the Government signals openness to BE.

Few progress in the Government-BE meeting, but a new meeting was schedule for this week but the date is still to be decided:

PCP, PEV and PAN meeting with few progress also, but with again some openness from the Government:

- PCP continues very critical regarding the draft budget and gives one week for the government to compromise in measures, adding that just intentions are not enough. They admit some openness from the governmet but that the PS is still resisting to many of the Communists proposals;

- PEV, PCP's satellite party, has given some proposals to the government and are now waiting for the feedback. A new meeting will be held in the next few days;

- PAN came out of their meeting with Costa a bit disappointed as they said that there is no deal, but just like BE, PCP and PEV, the government showed some openness but that they are still insufficient;

[Josecardoso17]

The thing i find funny is that no polling as been released after the autarquicas...
But i think that the decisions from the  BE and PCP are because they have some internal data that shows a change in political climate.

[Mike88]

2022 budget crisis: Cabinet approves reforms in the Labour sector and the NHS in order to convince the leftwing parties.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1451288295363727362

Work and employment: Costa nods left with increased severance pay to 24 days a year

Costa's cabinet approved a series of measures and reforms for the Labour sector, NHS and Culture in order to convince the BE and PCP to pass the budget. The measures in the Labour sector focus on the increase of severance pay to 24 days a year, from the current 12 days, increase in payment for extra working hours plus other measures to fight precarious working situations, like the State cutting business links with companies with precarious workers. On the Culture sector, the cabinet approved the "Statute of Cultural Professionals" which, according to the government, will help protect Culture sector jobs. On the NHS, the government approved a reform that would create a "CEO" and a management team to manage the Heath service, similar to the UK's NHS. Also, doctors with managent posts in the NHS will be barred from working in the private sector and there will be a process of starting to hire doctors who exclusively work in the NHS, and not in the private sector also.

However, these measures aren't convincing BE and PCP, and there is already accusations from the PS that the leftwing parties want to bring down the government asking them if they are interested in having the rightwing governing the country. Therefore, the situation is still tense and during the weekend several meetings will be held between Costa, Catarina Martins and Jerónimo de Sousa to see how to end the stalemate or acknowledging that there is no deal and that the budget is doomed. We'll see.

[Mike88]

The thing i find funny is that no polling as been released after the autarquicas...
But i think that the decisions from the  BE and PCP are because they have some internal data that shows a change in political climate.

Well, quoting Tom Brokaw, polling companies currently have omelets in their suits after the local elections fiasco in Lisbon, plus the failure to predict or sensing big swings in other big cities. Maybe Intercampus will have a poll on Monday, we'll see.

All parties could have internal polling of course, but this is also tactical in my opinion: PCP is collapsing and needs to stop their decline, if going against the PS is the right answer, well, to be honest, they are trapped; BE doesn't trust the PS, and the PS doesn't trust BE and that's that. My hunch, is that a snap election will repeat the current stalemate and that's why the PS doesn't want elections, but, who knows, you may be right... the series of government blunders plus the local election results could be forcing a change in voting intentions.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Rui Rio publicly announces his candidacy saying it would be very bad if the PSD changed its leader.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1451614466806845467

Rio: “I am a candidate for the party mandate that allows me to defeat António Costa

Rui Rio, PSD leader, has publicly announced his candidacy for a 3rd term as PSD leader. In a packed room in a Porto city hotel, Mr Rio said that, today, the PSD is in a much better position to defeat the PS in the next general elections. He highlighted the results in the local elections, mainly the rise of support in urban centers, especially in Lisbon, as reasons to run again adding that it would be very bad for the party to change course, saying that the PSD is growing and the PS is falling. However, he attacked his internal opposition for, in his words, putting the PSD in a complicated position if there's a political crisis, next week, due to the budget and labeled it as "an incomprehensible autophagic tendency". The leadership election is in 6 weeks, on December 4th.

[Mike88]

We now have some proof that the political landscape is changing. Today's Eurosondagem poll, which is the Portuguese equivalent of CIS or Rasmussen, has the PS drooping more than 3 points. If Eurosondagem is showing these numbers now, then more reliable polling could be even worse for the PS:

Vote share %:

38.1% PS (-3.4)
27.5% PSD (+0.3)
  9.2% CHEGA (+0.3)
  5.6% CDU (+0.1)
  5.5% IL (+0.3)
  5.1% BE (+0.1)
  2.8% PAN (+0.2)
  2.5% CDS (+0.5)
  3.7% Others/Invalid (+1.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 October 2021. Polled 1,028 voters. MoE of 3.06%.

[Mike88]

2022 budget: BE/Costa meeting ends in failure, again, and PCP is still meeting with Costa.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1451870411881205765

No approximation: Left Block weighs vote against Budget

PM Costa is holding key meetings this weekend to try to save the 2022 budget. Costa met during the morning with BE, but the meeting ended, once again, in failure and the party is set to vote against the budget, like last year. Currently, Costa is meeting with the Communists to see if a path to approve the budget is possible. In the last few hours, the PM has announced even more policies in order to have the support of the PCP: minimum wage of 850 euros until 2025; Increase of pensions until 1,097 euros and starting in January 2022; Rise of minimum existence of the IRS meaning that 170,000 taxpayers would be exempt from paying taxes and free kindergartens for every single child until 2025. So far, the PCP is not budging and continues to say that the measures aren't enough.

At the same time, Costa is facing a "war" with business leaders as they left the Social Concertation Council, a council that joins business leaders, unions and the government in order to pass consensual labour laws, accusing Costa of lying and disrespecting them by approving policies that weren't discussed. Costa has already publicly apologized to business leaders, but they are arguing that Costa's apologies are not enough and that actions have consequences. Business leaders have already asked for a meeting with President Marcelo.

[Mike88]

2022 budget crisis: BE announces vote against while the Government accuses them of "intransigence".

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1452292864671686660

Catarina Martins announces this Sunday at the end of the meeting of the National Board of the Left Bloc the direction of vote of the Blocists in the OE. PCP Central Committee also meets this Sunday.

The tension between the leftwing and the PS continues as BE announced they will vote against the budget, if nothing changes until Wednesday. The BE continues to say they are open to negotiate but that the government isn't budging and didn't accept any of their proposals. In response, the Government held a snap press conference where they accused BE of being "uncompromising" and that they regret BE's decision. The government laid out to reporters all the concessions the government already gave to the leftwing parties, from labour laws to the NHS and added that if things are like this, everything is much more difficult. The PS is also pressing BE, and also PCP, saying that voting against the budget is "pushing the country into the hands of the rightwing" and that this moment is not the time for blackmails.

PCP is holding a party committee meeting, which is super secret, which will vote on what to do regarding the budget. PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa will announce in a press conference, tomorrow at lunchtime, their decision. PAN will announce their voting intention during the morning. Pundits say the government's press conference sounded like a government who doesn't control the situation and has started the "blame game" regarding a possible colapse of the budget.

[Mike88]

2022 budget update: Crunch time for the government.

The last parties to decide their votes, PCP, PEV, PAN and the Independent MPs, are announcing their votes:

- PAN will abstain, just like last year;
- Independent MPs Joacine Katar Moreira and Cristina Rodrigues will also abstain;

The PCP is the main doubt right now. Some newspapers report that the Communists left the meetings with Costa, this weekend, in silence leaving the government nervous. However, Público newspaper reports that PCP will not announce a final decision today and will postpone any decision until Wednesday, the day of the budget vote. The PCP press conference is at 12:00h. We'll see.

[Mike88]

JUST IN: PCP will vote against the 2022 budget.

PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa says that if the government doesn't change more policies, the decision is final. He added that no more meetings are so far schedule.

Well, if nothing changes until Wednesday, a snap election could be basically unavoidable. How things changed in just one month.