🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Parishes won by party:

1,263 PS (-39)
1,200 PSD (+33)
   413 Independents (+11)
   112 CDU (-27)
     43 CDS (-17)
     17 Livre (+10)
       5 JPP (nc)
       3 NC (nc)
       1 MPT (+1)
       1 PPM (+1)

Also, counting is over and here's the final state of the parties: (mayors elected)

148 PS (-12)
114 PSD (+16)
  19 CDU (-5)
  19 Independents (+2)
    6 CDS (nc)
    1 JPP (nc)
    1 Livre (nc)
    0 NC (-1)

[Mike88]

Lisbon results, compared with 2017:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1442460395885588486

The PSD/CDS barely improved compared with 4 years ago, just 2%, while the PS collapsed. The movements from the PS to other parties are quite interesting. And curious.

[VPH]

Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

[Mike88]

Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.

[VPH]

Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.

Then again, I expected them to run well behind Ventura. It's a pretty personalistic movement still, with Ventura as the key figurehead. Traditional party affiliations might be more stubborn on the municipal level, as they are in many realigning areas around the world.

[Mike88]

Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.

Then again, I expected them to run well behind Ventura. It's a pretty personalistic movement still, with Ventura as the key figurehead. Traditional party affiliations might be more stubborn on the municipal level, as they are in many realigning areas around the world.

No doubt. There's a reason why CHEGA candidates posters had always a photo of Ventura next to them, but they were still unknown, some were complete nutheads, literally, and this hurt CHEGA a bit. However, CHEGA got 19 councillors and, for the sake of comparison, BE never reached 19 councillors in a single local election.

[Mike88]

After these elections, the number of "bastions" who haven't changed political parties since 1976, drooped to 24:
https://twitter.com/LiberdadeMais/status/1442521824542167041

CDU lost 3 "bastions", while both PS and PSD lost two.

[crals]

It's interesting how neatly the Portuguese and German party systems currently map out with each other

BE - West German Linke
CDU - East German Linke
PS - SPD
PAN - Grüne
IL - FDP
PSD - CDU
CDS - CSU
Chega - AfD

[Mike88]

It's interesting how neatly the Portuguese and German party systems currently map out with each other

BE - West German Linke
CDU - East German Linke
PS - SPD
PAN - Grüne
IL - FDP
PSD - CDU
CDS - CSU
Chega - AfD

CDS would kill to be like CSU... But, the rest, yep.

Also, changes in municipalities. 66 municipalities changed hands in this election (21% of 308), one of the biggest changes in recent history:
https://twitter.com/marcelloamorim/status/1442783065886105600

PSD gained 26 cities from the PS
PS gained 12 cities from the PSD
PS gained 6 cities from CDU
PSD gained 1 city from CDU
Independents gained 6 cities from the PS
Independents gained 4 cities from the PSD

Another thing that is dominating the coverage of the election results is polling, and how it failed to predict the outcome in Lisbon, overestimated Rui Moreira and also underestimated the PSD in Coimbra. The media is questioning if polling is accurate and if can be trusted, and polling companies directors are going to the TV air waves to defend polling.

[Mike88]

Now, maps:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1442552113574334467

(the link has a good map of how the country voted)

Also, I'm making a parish election results map. Will post it when it's ready.

[Mike88]

Costa rejects calls for a government reshuffle, in the aftermath of the local elections results:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1442802131459846144

Local elections 2021: António Costa guarantees that “there's no government reshuffle” in the making

PM Costa is rejecting calls to make a big reshuffle of his cabinet in the aftermath of the local elections results. With the media saying that the results are a "warning" and a "yellow card" to Costa, there is some pressure for a reshuffle, but the PM is saying no. After exiting the last meeting of the Covid-19 vaccine taskforce, Costa said that no reshuffle was in the making because of the election results, and that the country doesn't need a political crisis. These remarks from the PM come on the same day that other media outlets report that a reshuffle is indeed being prepared, behind the scenes, and that Costa could give Fernando Medina, the defeated mayor of Lisbon, a cabinet post.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have noticed another thing about the CDU - it seems that they often do better at the autárquicas in the Setúbal district than in Beja district, while in parliamentary elections they consistently do noticeably better (and the absolute best of course) in Beja. Why is that? It's a small difference but I feel it can't be random.

[Mike88]

I have noticed another thing about the CDU - it seems that they often do better at the autárquicas in the Setúbal district than in Beja district, while in parliamentary elections they consistently do noticeably better (and the absolute best of course) in Beja. Why is that? It's a small difference but I feel it can't be random.

Setúbal in the general elections has a lot of tactical voting of CDU "autárquicas" voters in the PS, in order to defeat the PSD. In Beja, is the same thing, while the PSD does better in general elections at the expense of CDU, a bit, IMO. The Setúbal peninsula was , and still is, a very industrial area thus having a lot of unions workers that made the Communists popular there, and locally that presence continued although is being erased election after election. The same happened in general elections until the the early 90's, coinciding with the fall of the Berlin wall and the USSR, and since 1995, that Communist vote in Setúbal district started to vote tactically in the PS in the general elections. It remained in the local elections, but, like I said above, is being erased election after election, and it becoming faster since the CDU is supporting "on and off" the PS in government. This is my opinion. But, it's a curious and interesting voting pattern.

[Mike88]

Also, I'm making a parish election results map. Will post it when it's ready.

Here it is. The Parish Assembly map (Continental Portugal only; Madeira and Azores not shown)


Image link

In Continental Portugal, the PS won 1,186 parishes; PSD 1,095; Independents 403; CDU 112; CDS 35; Livre 17; NC 3; MPT 1 and PPM 1.

[Mike88]

Tension in cabinet? Infrastructure minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, criticizes his Finance college, João Leão, because of the resignation of the CEO of Trains of Portugal (CP) company:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1442961710495715328

About CP. Minister of Infrastructure criticizes Minister of Finance

The surprise announcement, yesterday, that the Trains of Portugal (CP), the State owned railway company, CEO, Nuno Freitas, was resigning from the post before the end of his term is creating a blame match between ministers in the government. Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, trashed the Finance minister, João Leão, and blamed him for the resignation of "the best CEO in the history of CP", accusing Mr Leão of not giving funds to CP and not approving the debt restructuring plans, adding that if it was up to him "all would be resolved". This "war" comes up just days before the presentation of the 2022 budget draft.

Not related but also, the "polling fiasco" continues to dominate a bit the post-election discussion, and Correio da Manhã newspaper asked Intercampus polling company to undertake a full review of their polling methods in order to see if corrections are needed, and avoid distrust about polling in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Small crisis brewing between Costa and Marcelo: President Marcelo disallowed Costa's Defense minister regarding the possible resignation of the Chief of the Naval Staff (CEMA).

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1443290899555962885

Crisis. Marcelo only learned of the Defense Minister's meeting with CEMA "after it happened"

There's a crisis brewing between PM Costa and President Marcelo because of the possible change of the Chief of the Naval Staff (CEMA). Earlier this week, when Costa was thanking Vice-Admiral Gouveia e Melo for his leadership in the Covid vaccine programme, news broke that the government decided to dismiss the current Chief of the Naval Staff, Mendes Calado, and place Gouveia e Melo in that post. The problem is that any changes in the army have to have the obligatoty approval of the President of the Republic, which didn't happened in this case as Marcelo was totally unaware of this move. Today, President Marcelo publicly disallowed Costa's defense minister, Gomes Cravinho, and said that no changes will happen regarding the post of Chief of the Naval Staff, for the moment, and said he was sorry that Gouveia e Melo's name was involved in this.

PM Costa has already asked for an urgent meeting with the President, in which he also asked that the Defense minister to be present, to explain the whole situation.

[Mike88]

A bit of comic relief: One of the most shared moments on social media, during election night, was an interview to a PS supporter who didn't understand what was happening and claimed that everything could be "sabotage": (All of this from CMTV, of course )

https://twitter.com/cvazmarques/status/1442541495136002051

Woman: To the origin of this, I... there is no explanation. There's something there that didn't go well. Everything was so controlled, a marvelous campaign, the Prime Minister on one side.. and he and us all also with him, always with lots of people... and in the end, up, up... it starts to lose, and Medalhas, the... Medalhas... rising..
Reporter: Yes... Mr Moedas...
Woman: Yes, Moedas, I'm sorry. This isn't normal... I think it's something very unusual. I would even say, I don't know, if I believe in sabotage, I do.
Reporter: Ok Madam, thank you.

[Mike88]

DA office says that all CHEGA acts since September 2020 are illegal due to irregularities and has sent the case to the Constitutional Court:

The Court just release a ruling on this and they've ruled that all of CHEGA's political decisions since September 2020 are indeed illegal and the party has to hold another congress to resolve the matter:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1443599285388554247

Constitutional Court confirms DA office: Political decisions by CHEGA since the Évora Congress are illegal

The Constitutional Court has declared illegal all of CHEGA's political decisions, elected party leaders, mandates and so on. The Court sides with the the DA office, where during this month, said that the calling of CHEGA's last congress was full of irregularities that would make all of the party's decision, after the congress, illegal. Ventura is now forced to call a snap party congress to resolve the matter.

[Josecardoso17]

about the polling being wrong in this election i think it was very predictable....
The polling that was made questioned like 1000 people maximum
The polling companies didnt even question a lot of people in Lisbon.

None the less, the result in Lisbon was suprising ,and i know from a lot of people in the Juntos Somos Coimbra coalition that they expected a close result but not a 11% win!!

Looks like Rui Rio stuns everyone as always xD

[Mike88]

about the polling being wrong in this election i think it was very predictable....
The polling that was made questioned like 1000 people maximum
The polling companies didnt even question a lot of people in Lisbon.

None the less, the result in Lisbon was suprising ,and i know from a lot of people in the Juntos Somos Coimbra coalition that they expected a close result but not a 11% win!!

Looks like Rui Rio stuns everyone as always xD

The issue with local election polling, IMO, is that pollsters don't meassure turnout, which in FPTP cases has a really big impact. And Lisbon is an example of that: pollsters were picking parish samples without predicting turnout, which is difficult I assume, but in Lisbon there's a historical pattern as more rightwing parishes have higher turnout than leftwing parishes. At the end of the day, turnout fell in parishes more aligned with the Left, and stabilized and even rose in parishes closer to the Right. There is also the view that the PS lead was so comfortable, that leftwing voters didn't showed up as it was a forgone conclusion and weren't that motivated to give their support. But, in my view, the turnout problem is something, that in big cities especially, pollsters can't get it right.

What I found more surprising about the Coimbra result, along side with the unexpected big gap between PSD and PS, was the complete failure of the Cidadãos por Coimbra coalition (CpC). Polling was giving them around 11% of the votes, well above CDU, and an almost guaranteed election of a councillor. Maybe there was tactical voting from CpC voters in the PSD coalition in order to defeat the PS, but I'm only guessing.

Yeah, when everybody was ready for his political funeral, Rio once again rose from the dead. He will definitely run for another term as PSD leader but it's still not a forgone conclusion... this is the PSD we're talking about.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership: Race for the leadership starts with Nuno Melo pre-announcing his run for the leadership.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1443884022392885258

CDS: Melo contests CDS's electoral success and pre-announces his candidacy for leadership

MEP Nuno Melo said that after the 26 September election, CDS is "weak" as he contests the party's leadership claims that the results were success. Mr. Melo, a critic of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, said that the party lost votes and, in the big cities, got less support than CHEGA and IL, adding that the party's many coalitions with the PSD show a "position of weakness", as the party, in some places, should have run alone. He also said that in the next few days, he will announce his decision to run, or not, for the party's leadership.

Indeed, during election night, pundits were scratching their heads because of CDS declaration that the party had a "very good result". Even though CDS hold on to their 6 mayors, the party formed a record number of coalition with the PSD, almost 140 out of 308 races, which pundits say masks the weakness the party is right now.

[Mike88]

Overall results by party:

(Several parties contested the elections in coalitions. These coalition results are added in the leading party for each coalition)

Nationwide:

Image link.

Lisbon city:

Image link.

[Josecardoso17]

PSD got suprising wins in Alentejo this time.

[Mike88]

PSD got suprising wins in Alentejo this time.

It's one of the most intriguing results, alongside others of course, in the elections: the surprising surge of the PSD in Alentejo. 19% in Évora city, 18% in Beja city, 4 cities in Évora district, and they failed a 5th by just 400 votes, in Vendas Novas. They also won 6 towns in Portalegre and are now tied with the PS in that district. CHEGA is a factor in the Alentejo, although bellow expectations, but they didn't hurt the PSD, on the contrary.

[Mike88]

Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election, the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

- CDS is also already in a leadership dispute. Party leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos has announced his intention to run, and will likely face a challenge by MEP Nuno Melo. The party is also having other internal problems as one of their MPs, Ana Rita Bessa, resigned this week claiming that the party is "dwarfing", but her replacement is being complicated as, for the moment, the next two people in line rejected being the new MP, which is creating tension in the party;

- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020, but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;