🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

It seems the old election archive of the CNE finally stopped working (or it may have months ago). Wierd that their website still links to it.

They stopped updating the results page years ago. I believe the last election they uploaded was the 2011 general elections, and the system is completely obsolete. But, of course, CNE has literally no money or staff, seriously. So, not updating the results website is just a consequence of lack of staff and investment. For the local elections, they are receiving tons of complaints from across the country, but they cannot handle them all and make rulings in appropriate time because of lack of staff. For example, since last year, there's a "war" between Parliament and the Commission about their headquarters:

CNE rented a classroom to accompany the presidential election. A complete team does not fit in the new premises and had to be divided in the last three electoral acts.

The vote for the Azores Regional Legislative Assembly was followed by the 12 members of the National Election Commission (CNE) plenary from a classroom provided by the Higher Institute of Economics and Management (ISEG). They were precisely 400 meters away from the CNE headquarters, where the legal office and contact center registered the more than 300 requests for information and complaints received during that scrutiny for the Commission's analysis. The physical distance, in this case, is not due to the pandemic. There is a war between the CNE and Parliament, which has lasted for over a year, over the new facilities.

“Disregard”, “intransigence”, “intolerable” are some of the expressions used by CNE members to classify the process that led to the transfer of address. The move took place on the same street (on Avenida D. Carlos I, in Lisbon, right next to the Assembly of the Republic), to two buildings above the headquarters where, since 1992, it operated. But even that doesn't flatten the criticisms of the CNE members, who slurred their grievances over a year and a half of minutes and even in the last report and accounts.
(...)

So, this is the situation. You can find full election results, since 1999, in this website: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/

[Mike88]

2021 local election campaign update. Main party leaders in the campaign trail:

PS leader, António Costa, in Guarda city:

PSD leader, Rui Rio, in Barcelos city, Braga district:

PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, in the final rally of the Avante festival in Seixal city, Setúbal district:
https://twitter.com/pcp_pt/status/1434610971817955329

CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, in Ponte de Lima city, Viana do Castelo district:
https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1434601540317290496

BE leader, Catarina Martins, in Santarém city:
https://twitter.com/EsquerdaNet/status/1434602997376450560

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, in a walkabout in Lisbon city with their candidate Nuno Graciano:

PAN march in Lisbon city, with the party's candidate for Lisbon city Manuela Gonzaga, for the defense of the rights of all animals:

The campaign is being dominated by the Paulo Rangel interview, yesterday on Saturday, and the embarrassment is provoking to Rui Rio. Mr Rio isn't commentating because he says he's focused on the election campaign and to win cities across the country, Mr Rangel says the same, but the tension in the PSD is clear.

[Mike88]

PM Costa and President Marcelo were photograph with one of the Iraqi's alledge terrorists while he was being investigated in 2018, the media reports:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1434770978580492296

Costa and Sampaio were with the Iraqi when he was already being investigated for terrorism

The media is reporting a rather embarrassing moment for PM Costa and also President Marcelo. It seems that both were photograph with one the of the two Iraqis that were arrested last week due to suspected links to ISIS. The two men arrived in Portugal in 2017 and were helped by associations that help refugees from the Middle East find work and settle in Portugal. Costa, Marcelo and former President Jorge Sampaio also, talked and were photographed with one of the men in 2018, while he was working in a restaurant, and at the same he was already being investigated by the police due to possible links with ISIS.

[Mike88]

Costa's interview on TVI: PM presses he will only decide in 2023 about running again, but promises not to interfere in the selection of his successor.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1435003794073456640

António Costa promises not to interfere in the choice of his successor nor to create a desert around him

In an interview to TVI, PM António Costa was asked, again, about his position on the 2023 election. Costa, once again, said he will only make a decision in 2023 and that he first has to talk with his wife. At the same time, he says he will not interfere in the election of his successor and will do everything to avoid a "desert" in the PS after him. During the interview, Costa also announced some measures for the budget like the creation of one new IRS tax bracket. Asked about the report that said the President Marcelo is convinced that Costa will not run in 2023, Costa refused to comment because, he said, he's not a pundit or comment anonymous sources.

Pundits, after the interview, clearly said that Costa is creating a tabu about his position in 2023, and that this could hurt the authority of the Prime Minister. In terms of ratings, the PM's interview had really low ratings: just 830,000 viewers*. SIC TV, which at the same time was showing a report of the road nº 2 of Portugal, the Portuguese equivalent of U.S. Route 66, had 1.3 million viewers.

* One of the main reasons for the low numbers may also be the fact the interview was conducted by Miguel Sousa Tavares, a really bad journalist, to say the least.

[Mike88]

PS MP under fire for a tweet about Paulo Rangel's (PSD) coming out. The MP denies he linked the "bondage house" of Brussels to Mr Rangel:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1434942939415908352

José Magalhães claims that reference to the “bondage house” in Brussels was not addressed to Paulo Rangel

PS MP José Magalhães is currently under fire because of a series of tweets he published about Paulo Rangel's interview, last Saturday, where the PSD MP came out as gay. In his first tweet, Mr Magalhães posted asking what would happen if Mr Rangel revealed he liked "a certain house in Brussels where bondage and S&M are practiced". This tweet was received by fury on social media and reached also the media as a whole. From left to right, many condemned the words of Mr Magalhães. He later posted another tweet saying that Mr Rangel wasn't the real addressee and it was just a hypothetical one.

Nonetheless, this isn't the first time Mr Magalhães is involved in controversies. Recently, he posted a series of tweets threatening that some PSD members needed some "therapeutic bludgeons" and he was also the "father" of the controversial Cibercrime bill, that was unanimously rejected by the Constitutional Court. The most controversial article was the one where the police would have direct access to a person's emails without a judge warrant. This controversial article was proposed by the Government, but Mr Magalhães, however, didn't agree with the government but let the bill go ahead and asked President Marcelo to send the bill to the Courts.

[Mike88]

DA office says that all CHEGA acts since September 2020 are illegal due to irregularities and has sent the case to the Constitutional Court:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1435298545238745088

Constitutional Court: Changes to Chega's statutes made at the last congress are illegal, says DA

The DA office has asked the Constitutional Court to invalidate all of CHEGA acts since September 2020. The DA office says that the party congress of September last year is full of irregularities, starting with the calling of the congress itself to the changes in the party system which, according to the DA, weren't clear either thus creating several illegalities. The Court now has to validate or not the DA claims. If the Court accepts the claims from the DA, CHEGA has to call a new congress and change everything all over again. The party says that local election candidates will not be affected by a ruling.

[Mike88]

Lisbon debate on TVI between Medina and Moedas:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1435387097108647940

The hot debate between the "modern chameleon" and the "marketing director"

It was a very tense debate between Fernando Medina (PS) and Carlos Moedas (PSD/CDS) on TVI. Both candidates for Lisbon mayor traded several attacks against each other: Medina accused Moedas of being "a chameleon" and "low", while Moedas accused Medina of being complicit with the corruption investigations in Lisbon city and called Medina a "markting director". Medina accused Moedas of using the investigations in Lisbon city as "political leverage" when it's a matter for the Courts, in which Moedas said that people are tired of the corruption investigations in Lisbon city hall and want higher ethical standards. This went on with Moedas listing a number of Medina's close associates investigated or accused of corruption, while Medina accused Moedas of acting like the front page of Correio da Manhã tabloid. Regarding taxes, Moedas wants to reduce taxes while Medina says that there's no space to reduce local taxes, adding that Lisbon has the lowest taxes in the Lisbon metro area.

On housing, Moedas accused Medina of a failed program on housing and proposed housing tax exemptions for young people, in which Medina responded by saying that Moedas is "promising everything to everyone like a Christmas basket". Both traded attacks about Climate Change, after Medina accused Moedas of being a denier and not proposing nothing, and Moedas responded that while EU Commissionaire he developed plans of several billion euros to fight climate change. During Moedas response, Medina called him a "chameleon" and "you have no courage". Then, Moedas said that Lisbon has one of the worst transport networks in Europe while Medina rejects the claims and talked about transport passes for elderly people.

Bike paths were also a topic, with Moedas accusing Medina of creating dangerous bike paths that, according to him, killed 26 people just in 2019. Medina furiously demanded the data and accused Moedas of being in the pocket of the "car lobby".

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Amadora city - PS incumbent, 172,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

50% PS (+2)
22% PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR (+4)
  7% CDU (-5)
  2% CHEGA (new)
  2% PAN (-1)
  2% BE (-5)
15% Others/Invalid (+3)

Poll conducted between 26 and 31 August 2021. Polled 452 voters in Amadora city. MoE of 4.61%

[Mike88]

Another one from Amadora:

ICS/ISCTE poll for Amadora city - PS incumbent, 172,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

41% PS (-7)
30% PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR (+12)
  8% CDU (-4)
  5% BE (-2)
  3% CHEGA (new)
  2% IL (new)
  2% PAN (-1)
  9% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 23 and 25 August 2021. Polled 600 voters in Amadora city. MoE of 3.94%

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Viseu city - PSD incumbent, 100,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

52.0% PSD (+0.3), 6 seats (nc)
25.5% PS (-1.0), 3 (nc)
  4.2% IL (new), 0 (new)
  3.6% CHEGA (new), 0 (new)
  3.3% CDS (-1.7), 0 (nc)
  2.7% BE (-2.1), 0 (nc)
  2.5% CDU (-1.4), 0 (nc)
  1.7% PAN (-0.5), 0 (nc)
  4.5% Invalid (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 4 and 6 September 2021. Polled 1,018 voters in Viseu city. MoE of 3.05%.

[Mike88]

And another one, this time for Lisbon:

Pitagórica poll for Lisbon city - PS incumbent, 545,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

39.8% PS/Livre (-2.2)
32.6% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (+0.8 )
  8.5% CDU (-1.1)
  6.8% BE (-0.3)
  3.8% PAN (+0.8 )
  3.0% IL (new)
  2.8% CHEGA (new)
  0.2% PDR (-0.1)
  2.5% Others/Invalid (-4.0)

Poll conducted between 30 August and 4 September 2021. Polled 600 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 4.08%.

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

- In Vila Real de Santo António, a PS list candidate tossed a homophobic slur against the PSD candidate in that municipality. Paulo Karussa, a candidate in the PS lists, posted on Facebook "This queer never gave me anything, nor did I ask him. This guy doesn't even deserve the bread he eats." Mr Karussa deleted the post and apologized for his tone and language, adding he has a bad history with Luís Gomes, the PSD candidate, because of his "persuctions". Mr Gomes reacted by saying this is just another of the offenses Mr Karussa has thrown against him. The PS mayoral candidate for Vila Real de Santo António, Álvaro Araújo, personally apologized to Luís Gomes;

- In Lisbon city, BE is willing to repeat the coalition agreement with the PS that was signed in 2017. But, BE leader Catarina Martins says that will isn't the same in the PS as they always want a majority in order to not make changes, adding that the Socialists have a tendency of rejecting deals with the left;

- Also in Lisbon city, the Liberal candidate, Bruno Horta Soares, is involved in a controversy. Mr Soares posted on social media a tweet where he seemed to highlight the Estado Novo regime by talking about his grandparents that left the countryside to the city to find better opportunities and that today we have fewer liberties and less stories like these. This created quite a reaction on social media and a "war" between columnists and the candidate in the media;

- The final lists are almost decided, with the Courts issuing their final rulings. As of now, there are 12,370 candidacies for the 26 September election for the 3 local branches: Municipal Chamber, Municipal Assembly and Parish Assembly. The number is already higher than the 12,025 candidacies of 2017;

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Figueira da Foz city - PS incumbent, 59,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

47% Pedro Santana Lopes (new)
35% PS (-15)
  8% PSD (-20)
  3% CDU (-4)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  6% Others/Invalid (-9)

Poll conducted between 26 and 30 August 2021. Polled 604 voters in Figueira da Foz city. MoE of 4.00%.

*Yep... It seems that Santana is on the verge of winning his first election in 20 years, after tons of defeats.

[Mike88]

Mayors across the country file a Court complaint against the Electoral Commission (CNE) because of the Commission's ban in office holders publicising their work as mayors:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1435979035914510339

Complaint by mayors against CNE will have Marcelo, Ferro and Costa as witnesses

During this election cycle, the Electoral Commission has been fining and banning mayors across of the country for publicising their work as officeholders in the last four years. Mayors running for reelection are furious with the Commission and they are now going to file a Court complaint in order to stop the CNE ruling. 10 mayors, that include Oeiras mayor Isaltino Morais (Ind) and Cascais mayor Carlos Carreiras (PSD/CDS), are challenging the Electoral Commission. They will also ask as witnesses President Marcelo, PM Costa and Speaker Ferro Rodrigues. The CNE view is that any publicity of the work an officeholder did is unfair advantage, but mayors argue that, in a democracy, candidates have to show their "virtues", meaning work, in order to have a case to the electorate.

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

33% PS (-2)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*
12% CpC (+5)
  7% CDU (-1)
  3% IL (new)
  3% CHEGA (new)
11% Others/Invalid (+4)

Poll conducted between 31 August and 2 September 2021. Polled 606 voters in Coimbra city. MoE of 4.00%.

* Compared with the 27% of the Coalition in 2017. The current PSD/CDS candidate got 16% as an independent in 2017.

[Mike88]

Constitutional Court rejects PSD appeal and Santana Lopes is allowed to run in Figueira da Foz. CHEGA, on the contrary, is removed from the ballot:

The Constitutional Court has ruled in favour of Pedro Santana Lopes and he will be allowed to be on the ballot for the 26 September vote. The Court, thus, rejected the PSD appeal that said that Mr Santana Lopes candidacy papers had several errors and should be invalidated. The Court, however, rejected Santana's movement candidacies in two parishes of Figueira. Who will be definitely out of the ballot is CHEGA. The Court has also ruled that CHEGA cannot be on the ballot because of several errors in the candidacy, thus giving reason to the local court that also rejected the candidacy.

[Josecardoso17]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Figueira da Foz city - PS incumbent, 59,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

47% Pedro Santana Lopes (new)
35% PS (-15)
  8% PSD (-20)
  3% CDU (-4)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  6% Others/Invalid (-9)

Poll conducted between 26 and 30 August 2021. Polled 604 voters in Figueira da Foz city. MoE of 4.00%.

*Yep... It seems that Santana is on the verge of winning his first election in 20 years, after tons of defeats.

this is even more interesting because in the polls that were made the people of Figueira da Foz seem to like the job of the current president .
A case of pure nostalgia....

[Mike88]

this is even more interesting because in the polls that were made the people of Figueira da Foz seem to like the job of the current president .
A case of pure nostalgia....

He always had a fan base in Figueira, but that data is still curious and although he's the favourite, the poll shows 30% of undecided, quite high, meaning that turnout will be crucial in the end.

[Mike88]

Very sad news this morning. Former President Jorge Sampaio passed away this morning:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1436239294474047492

Jorge Sampaio, the "prisoner of anxiety for a better future" died

Former President of the Republic Jorge Sampaio (1996-2006) died this morning at the age of 81. Mr Sampaio was ill for some time now, heart issues, and was in hospital since late August. In his youth, he was part of the opposition against the Estado Novo regime and after the 25 April revolution, he was part of MES, a Christian Socialist Party, before going to the PS in 1978. He was elected leader of the PS in 1988 and was elected mayor of Lisbon, in a PS-CDU coalition, in 1989 and stayed as mayor until 1995. He was defeated by Cavaco Silva in the 1991 general election, and shortly after, he lost the PS leadership to António Guterres. He ran for President of the Republic in 1996 and was elected President by defeating Cavaco Silva by a 54-46% margin. He was a very popular President and the only one, so far, to use the "atomic bomb", the dissolution of Parliament without the consent of the Prime Minister in 2004. In 2006, he was succeeded by Cavaco Silva in the Presidency of the Republic. Since 2014, Mr Sampaio was the head of an association that worked to integrate and educate refugees that arrived in Portugal from the Middle East.

RIP, Mr President.

[VPH]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*

Boy, that's quite the large alliance of parties. How did they manage to get RIR and Volt to come into a center-right ticket? Those parties definitely seem to lean left. Anyway, their support base is probably pretty tiny. Although I could see Volt doing slightly better with students at the Universidade.

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*

Boy, that's quite the large alliance of parties. How did they manage to get RIR and Volt to come into a center-right ticket? Those parties definitely seem to lean left. Anyway, their support base is probably pretty tiny. Although I could see Volt doing slightly better with students at the Universidade.

I believe it's because of the candidate itself. José Manuel Silva seems to be a candidate with broad appeal, from center-left to center-right, thus having the support of parties like Volt. Tino de Rans RIR party has no ideology, and in these elections they have coalitions with both PS and PSD is some places. Volt is new in the political scene and they only have 3 solo candidacies: in Lisbon, Porto and Tomar. Don't know if they appeal to University students, mainly because many students at Coimbra University don't vote in Coimbra, but the trend and analysis from Coimbra seems bad for the PS, and that poll also gives the current mayor, Manuel Machado (PS), the worst approval so far in a ICS/ISCTE poll, a 52-43% approval.

*Odivelas, Lisbon, 148,000 inhabitants, also has a mega center-right coalition: PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR/PPM/RIR.

[Mike88]

2021 local election campaign update:

Because of the death of former President Jorge Sampaio, campaign events are being cancelled across the country. PS and PSD have already suspended all their campaign rallies and events during the weekend, and TV networks are cancelling debates between candidates: RTP has cancelled the Coimbra debate that was schedule for this Friday evening.

The government has also decreed 3 days of national mourning. The funeral of President Jorge Sampaio is to be held on Sunday, 12 September.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have not been following this thread recently as much as I used to, but I just want to pop in to ask whether the local elections seem to be headed in a more favourable direction for the PS or for the PSD on the whole, and what this means for Costa's and Rui Rio's future. Also lol at Santana Lopes looking poised to return to the mayoralty of Figueira after so long and finally win an election... what a man.

And obviously, my condolences for Jorge Sampaio. May he rest in peace.

[Mike88]

I have not been following this thread recently as much as I used to, but I just want to pop in to ask whether the local elections seem to be headed in a more favourable direction for the PS or for the PSD on the whole, and what this means for Costa's and Rui Rio's future. Also lol at Santana Lopes looking poised to return to the mayoralty of Figueira after so long and finally win an election... what a man.

And obviously, my condolences for Jorge Sampaio. May he rest in peace.

The local elections seem poised to be very similar with the 2017 results, meaning a PS victory. The PSD can win some places, like Coimbra or Funchal, but the rest seems very unlikely. The PSD is already rebelling against Rio with predictions of another electoral disaster and challengers are gearing up to run for the leadership. MEP Paulo Rangel's recent interview, where he came out as gay, is seen as a sign he will challenge Rio for the leadership after the local elections. Mr Rangel is also crisscrossing the country, like Rio, to support PSD candidates and to feel the mood of the party's base. Rio seems to be furious at Rangel because he is from Rio's wing of the party, and reports say that Rio has basically decided he will not go down without a fight, but if predictions about the local elections are right and Rio does run, I'm not seeing the PSD members giving Rio another chance. If the results, however, of the local elections are worse than 2017, Rio has already said it would be a "push" to resign and not contest the leadership.

For the PS, a result similar to 2017 would be another big victory, however, the mood towards Costa's government has been worsening in the last few months: pandemic fatigue, scandals/controversies hitting several ministers in the cabinet, plus some other PS members, and lack of vision are generating accusations of complacency and arrogance by pundits and the media. At the same time, the future of Costa is another big "taboo". Costa hasn't ruled out not running in 2023 and this is generating a huge discussion about possible successors. The most likely successor is Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, but Costa doesn't like him and he's literally throwing names of possible successors to see if the media picks them up. Currently, Costa and the PS are basically merged, Costa is the PS and the PS is Costa, so a possible exit from the leadership would be a massive change in the political scene. It's quite possible that in 2023, there will be new PS and PSD leaders contesting the election, but, as of now, it's all speculation.

Regarding Santana, well, a cat has 7 lives, Santana has 1,056,271 lives. It's quite remarkable that, in just 3 years, after losing the PSD leadership, leaving the PSD, forming his own party, having a car crash result in 2019, leaving the party he himself created, he seems poised to win the city of Figueira as an Independent. It's quite a journey. But, it's only over when it's over. Let's see.

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for Vila Nova de Gaia city - PS incumbent, 304,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

62.1% PS (+0.4)
16.0% PSD/CDS/PPM (-4.3)
  4.6% BE (-0.6)
  4.6% CDU (+0.1)
  3.1% CHEGA (new)
  1.5% PAN (-1.1)
  1.5% Livre (new)
  1.2% IL (new)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 September 2021. MoE of 3.50%.