🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Parties are starting to react to the "Operation Marquis" ruling:

- PSD leader Rui Rio called an emergency meeting of his leadership team to analyse the ruling, but an official position by the PSD is still unknown;

- BE says the ruling demands a "reflexion" about the Justice system in Portugal;

- CDS says the current system is "sick", while CHEGA says the ruling creates "outrage and revolt";

- The Liberals (IL) said that "democracy has become more fragile today" and that confidence in institutions may be intoxicated;

- No official reaction from neither PS or PCP, although this afternoon, PM Costa, when pressed by reporters, said that he stands by with what he said in 2014, "Of justice what is of justice, of politics what is of politics";

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.1)
27.8% PSD (-0.4)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.2)
  6.2% BE (-0.8 )
  5.2% CDU (+0.7)
  2.5% IL (+0.4)
  2.1% PAN (-0.4)
  2.0% CDS (-0.2)   
  6.9% Others/Invalid (+0.4)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 April 2021. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Backlash against Judge Ivo Rosa: A public petition, with less than 24 hours, to ban Judge Ivo Rosa from justiceship already has more than 50,000 signatures and the numbers continue to grow non stop:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1380912326551953408

Petition with more than 50 thousand signatures wants to remove Ivo Rosa from the judiciary

The ruling of Judge Ivo Rosa regarding the "Operation Marquis", which involves former PM José Sócrates, continues to dominate all news in Portugal and reactions to his ruling are dividing opinions. In the media, there's a clear split between pundits with half saying the judge's ruling was fair as the DA case was full of mistakes, while others say the judge was naive and could face defeat in the Relação Court. But, in the general public, there seems to be a huge backlash against Judge Ivo Rosa. A public petition, created in the early hours of today, to ban the judge from the judiciary, already has more than 50,000 signatures and they are growing by the second.

[Mike88]

Sócrates has a new book where he calls Costa a "traitor":

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1381180399980793856

“It has only just begun”, the new book by Socrates where Costa is a “traitor”.

José Sócrates is about to launch a new book called "It has only just begun", where he trashes the PS, António Costa and media. In the book, Sócrates starts by saying "Politics loves betrayal, but despises the betrayer", a clear attack towards the Socialist Party and goes on to say that his corruption investigation was a plan to defeat the PS in the 2015 elections and force the PS to have no candidate in the 2016 Presidential elections, hinting he was planning to run in those elections. Sócrates never calls Costa by name, but rather "the current PS leader", and calls Costa a traitor and someone he never expected personal camaraderie, concluding that Costa and the PS wanted to remove from history "the only leader who have an absolute majority to the party". However, he praises Mário Soares, Almeida Santos and recalls the visit of António Guterres, when Sócrates was in prison.

He also compares judge Carlos Alexandre, the judge who started the case against him before being substituted by judge Ivo Rosa, and compared him with Brazilian judge Sérgio Moro. The preface to the book is written by former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff.

The washing of dirty laundry has begun. Also, the petition against Judge Ivo Rosa continues to grow and has almost 150,000 signatures and is already one of the biggest petitions ever.

[Conservatopia]

The preface to the book is written by former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff.

Wouldn't that be like Matt Gaetz having his memoirs prefaced by Ghislaine Maxwell?

[Mike88]

The preface to the book is written by former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff.

Wouldn't that be like Matt Gaetz having his memoirs prefaced by Ghislaine Maxwell?

A bit exaggerated, IMO, as neither Dilma or Sócrates have anything to do about sex trafficking crimes, but I would say it's more like, for example, Donald Trump having his memoirs prefaced by Jair Bolsonaro, or the other way around.

Dilma is making a complete fool of herself by her staunch support and defense of Sócrates.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections update:

- In the PSD, the soap opera continues. After last week announcement of the last bunch of candidates, local parties in 3 cities, Barcelos, Castelo Branco and Leiria, are pissed with Rio because of the rejection of the candidates approved by local branches. The 3 local parties are saying that the picks by Rio are a huge mistake and it's all on him, while PSD/Barcelos even threaten Rio by saying that the city is worth 4,000 votes in the PSD leadership race. These 3 local parties also have a lot of internal infighting with the curiosity that Barcelos and Leiria are huge PSD strongholds but, because of internal divisions, have fallen to the PS in local elections;

- If the PSD is loud in showing their division, the PS is quiet in showing their own divisions. In the PS there seems to be a lot of divisions and that's why the party is delaying and delaying the announcement of several candidates. There are "silent" tensions between the national leadership and many local branches candidates, in some cases, are pursuing Independent candidacies that could divide the PS vote. In the meantime, the Socialists are attacking the PSD and Rio for their picks saying that "haste is the enemy of perfection";

- Independent mayors are losing their patient with Parliament and are already threatening parties that if they don't change the electoral law by the end of April, they will form their own party to run for the elections. Parties agreed last week for a 2 week draft of a final change in the electoral law to accommodate the demands of the Independent mayors. These mayors are also furious with the Electoral Commission (CNE), after the Commission suggested that Independent candidates should be forced to reveal their party membership. Indy mayors, like Porto mayor, Rui Moreira, said the CNE is "useless", that it should be abolished and the Constitutional Court could easily fill the CNE shoes;

More updates when available.

[Mike88]

PSD leader Rui Rio wants reforms in the Justice system and criticized the PM for evading responsibilities by not reforming the Justice system that creates rulings like the "Operation Marquis" one:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1381646818631577603

Rui Rio talks about Operation Marquis and the state of justice.

The leader of the PSD, Rui Rio, gave a speech this afternoon about the controversial ruling of the "Operation Marquis" that continues to dominate headlines. Mr Rio said that the current regime "is sick" and that when "the Justice system isn't working, the people will not understand it", adding that in this case people don't understand how can a PM where there are evidences of corruption during his term, will not face consequences. He then accused "the system" of not waiting to reform itself and pointed directly to PM Costa, and indirectly to President Marcelo as well, by accusing the PM of hypocrisy for his stance that separates this case from the Justice and the Political system, as when the Justice system isn't working, policy makers need to step up and give the justice system the tools they need. Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

[Mike88]

Mayor of Vila Real de Santo António (PSD) arrested for corruption charges:

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1381890100192231424

Mayor of Vila Real de Santo António arrested for corruption crimes

Vila Real de Santo António, a city in the Algarve bordering Spain, city hall was raided by the police this morning and the city's mayor, Conceição Cabrita (PSD), was arrested. According to the media, she is a suspect in a real estate deal in Monte Gordo, a tourist/resort area in the city, in which a property was sold by a much lower price than it was stipulated by the market, thus hurting the city's finances. A city hall employee was also detained by the police. Ms Cabrita is mayor since 2017, but this time the PSD did not choose her as candidate for the fall local election and picked her predecessor as candidate.

[Mike88]

PS mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, breaks the party's silence and accuses Sócrates of a behavior that "erodes democracy itself":

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1382272418522099713

Fernando Medina accuses José Sócrates of betraying the confidence of the Portuguese - RTP Notícias

Lisbon mayor, PS Fernando Medina, has become the first high ranking PS member to comment on the Sócrates ruling of last Friday. Mr Medina accused Sócrates of betraying the trust of the Portuguese People and of having a behavior that "erodes Portuguese democracy itself". Medina's very harsh criticisms towards Sócrates have, therefore, break the huge silence within the PS regarding the ruling. Fernando Medina was a member of Sócrates cabinet, as secretary of state, during his terms as PM (2005-2011).

Also, surrounding the arrest of the PSD mayor of Vila Real de Santo António, a PS MP has also been raided and the police is asking the removal of Parliamentary immunity:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1382278192803815424

Judiciary Police: Judiciary searched the house of PS MP António Gameiro in the context of Operation Triangle

The arrest of the PSD mayor of Vila Real de Santo António (VRSA), yesterday, surprised the PSD and the party already believes that Vila Real de Santo António could be a lost cause, even though the party's candidate wasn't the incumbent mayor. But, the police investigation on this matter has now reached the PS. The police raided, this morning, the house of PS MP António Gameiro. Mr Gameiro is also the PS candidate for mayor of Ourém, Santarém district. The police has already asked the removal of his Parliamentary immunity. Mr Gameiro is suspect of being an intermediary of the bribe between the PSD mayor of VRSA and a the real estate buyer.

[Mike88]

José Sócrates interview on TVI: From attacking the judge's ruling to accusing the PS of being "scoundrels".

https://twitter.com/JNegocios/status/1382449532600991744

The temperature rose when the interviewer, José Alberto Carvalho, pressed the former prime minister about the money he received in real money from his friend

José Sócrates interview last night on TVI is dominating headlines. The interview is being considered a total trainwreck for Mr Sócrates as pundits suggest he lives in a fantasy land. The interview started with the interview pressing Sócrates about the corruption charges, that were proven by the judged but dropped because they had prescribed. Sócrates denied he was accused of corruption which created a back and forward between him and the interviewer, as the interviewer was reading the ruling that clearly said that Sócrates committed corrupt deals as PM and with Sócrates refusing those claims. The interview went on and another clash occurred when it was discussed his relation with his "best friend" Carlos Santos Silva. Sócrates completely failed to explain the money scheme between him and his "best friend", in which he said things like, for example, when he lived in Paris, "It wasn't a life of luxury, it was investment in education." These statements are being ridiculed by pundits and social media. He also said that his case is a big conspiracy, created by the rightwing, to damage him and prevent him to run for political office. He ended the interview by trashing, again the PS, accusing the mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, of being a "scoundrel" and suggesting he's a puppet of Costa by saying the attack he made against Sócrates was a direct order from Costa.

Like I said above, pundits are trashing the interview saying that Sócrates lives in a fantasy land and that lies over and over again. At the same time, some voices suggest the PS cannot stay silent much longer and probably needs to make a self-criticism about Sócrates and his role in the party.

[VPH]

Finally, this image sums up the day:

After the ruling session, José Socrates went to a cafe terrace to dine and drink beer and, of course, CMTV was there and Sócrates was trashed by the reporter because there were 5 people on the table and there's a 4 people rule in terrace tables because of the pandemic. Sócrates drank his beer and didn't respond to the reporter.
 

Priceless.

Sometimes CMTV makes the world a more fun place. Most of the time it's horribly sensationalized. This is a good example of the former.

[Mike88]

Sometimes CMTV makes the world a more fun place. Most of the time it's horribly sensationalized. This is a good example of the former.

They had a field day on that day. And they are still using a lot of Sócrates references for other stuff like for football and other cases.

For example: https://twitter.com/JosGome40657225/status/1381612925362835460/photo/1

[Mike88]

Other controversies:

CDS-Madeira leader and Regional Government member, Rui Barreto, accused of receiving illegal funds from a businessman close to CHEGA:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1382787700646932481

Madeira: Money transfers of businessman linked to Chega to CDS-Madeira leaders open controversy

An investigation by SIC TV revealed that a businessman linked to CHEGA, called César do Paço, financed CDS-Madeira 2019 campaign by lending into the bank accounts of Rui Barreto, CDS-M leader, and other CDS members in the region, around 30,000 euros in total. The same investigation says that Mr Paço sent an email to Mr Barreto, in July 2020, to return the money. Mr Barreto says the donation was because the party was in dire situation in 2019 and that Mr Paço offered some help to the party. However, the donation could be illegal as it surpasses the 10,400 euros legal limit in the election campaign finance law. Mr Barreto was also asked why he didn't repaid the donation, and he said that Covid got into the way and that Mr Paço attorney "disappeared". However, the donation was repaid just days after SIC talked with Mr Barreto for the investigation, in February 2021. This is creating controversy in Madeira with the PS demanding explanation and suggesting that Mr Barreto has no conditions to remain in the Region's government. President Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) says he has full confidence in Mr Barreto.

Also, the DA office has asked for the removal of Parliamentary immunity for 9 MPs about the ongoing "Fake addresses" scandal. One BE MP has already resigned:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1382760749987201028

Fake addresses. Who are the other nine deputies who will lose parliamentary immunity.

The DA office has asked for the removal of parliamentary immunity for 9 MPs involved in the "Fake addresses" scandal. They are 4 MPs from the PSD, 3 from the PS, 1 from BE and 1 from CDS. One BE MP, Sandra Cunha, has already resigned because of this investigation. The scandal was revealed in 2018, and it shows that several MPs were receiving travel support for living outside Lisbon. The problem was that many didn't lived outside Lisbon and forged their addresses in order to receive these monetary supports. However, some MP, like CDS MP João Almeida, trashes the accusation saying he never had a house in Lisbon and that the house he stayed in Lisbon was his brother's. Other MPs are also expected to react to the prosecutors (DA) accusation.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.

[crals]

Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.

To be fair reforming the Justice system has always been one of Rio's pet obsessions

[Mike88]

Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.

To be fair reforming the Justice system has always been one of Rio's pet obsessions

Exactly. Not that he's not wrong, IMO, as the Justice system needs clearly some kind of reform, however his policies aren't very consensual and even Justice structures don't like them.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections - Intercampus poll for Lisbon city; 510,000 inhabitants; PS incumbent:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

46.6% PS (+4.6)
25.7% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/A (-6.1)*
  7.1% CDU (-2.6)
  6.6% BE (-0.5)
  6.1% CHEGA (new)
  2.3% IL (new)
  0.5% PAN (-2.5)
  5.1% Others/Invalid (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 April 2021. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

* Sum of the PSD and CDS separate lists in 2017: 20.6% for CDS and 11.2% for PSD.

[Mike88]

Hundreds of CHEGA supporters rallied, this afternoon, in Lisbon city against the proposed illegalization of the party:

Hundreds of people protesting against the illegalization of Chega in Lisbon

Hundreds of CHEGA supporters rallied in one of Lisbon's main squares, this afternoon, to protest against the proposed illegalization of the party. The protest was headed by CHEGA leader, André Ventura. The protest passed by the Constitutional Court and ended in Rossio Square. A heavy police presence and structure was set up for the rally to avoid any confrontations. In the last few months, the topic of a possible illegalization of CHEGA has been discussed with manly former presidential candidate, Ana Gomes, demanding the investigation and illegalization of the party due to illegal funding and incitement to violence. In the rally, Ventura said that only the people can "ban" the party and not the authorities. Several posters in the rally had phrases like "CHEGA or death! We will not give up!". The vast majority of protesters were wearing masks, however, safety distances, because of Covid, weren't followed.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

36.2% PS (-1.4)
23.3% PSD (-0.3)
  9.4% CHEGA (+0.4)
  9.4% BE (+0.9)
  5.2% CDU (-0.3)
  5.0% IL (-0.3)
  4.8% PAN (+2.3)
  3.1% CDS (+0.8 )
  0.4% Livre (-0.3)
  1.5% Others (+0.6)
  1.5% Invalid/Blank (-2.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.3 António Costa (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (+0.2)
2.9 Rui Rio (-0.2)
2.9 André Silva (+0.1)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
1.9 André Ventura (nc)

Poll conducted between 7 and 13 April 2021. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

PM António Costa uses words, in the party's 48th anniversary celebration, that could be an indirect response to Sócrates attacks towards him:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1384251532175020041

Political parties: Costa says the PS is "much more than circumstantial leaderships".

The PS celebrated 48 years of existence this Monday, the party was founded in 1973 in Germany, and the party held a celebratory session to marl the occasion and launch their 2021 election campaign for the fall local elections. In his speech, Costa honored the first 115 mayors the PS elected in the first local elections in 1976 and withit citting Sócrates himself, Costa honored all the people who led the party from Mário Soares to António José Seguro saying that the party is much more "than circumstantial leaderships", a clear indirect, and intelligent IMO, response to Sócrates, adding also that the PS life is daily made by its members, mayors, MPs and not their leaders. Costa also launched the party's campaign for the fall local elections.

[Mike88]

2021 local election update:

- In the PS cracks are starting to appear. In Paços de Ferreira, Porto district, the incumbent PS mayor is refusing to run for another term if the current local PS leadership continues. Humberto Brito was nominated by the district party, but an internal feud between him and the local PS chairwoman is derailing the process and the PS district party is now in crisis mode. In Pedrogão Grande, Leiria, the PS is also divided as the PS-Leiria refused to nominate the incumbent Pedrogão Grande mayor, Valdemar Alves, against the wishes of the local party. Mr Alves is accused of corruption involving the post 2017 wildfire recovery funds;

- In the PSD, tensions are also present. Leiria and Castelo Branco local parties continue furious with Rio, for choosing candidates against their wishes, and in Barcelos, the PSD will form a coalition with an Independent movement, led by a former PS dissident. This movement ran in 2017 and got 17%, but divisions within the PSD could derail the possibility of winning back Barcelos. In Sintra, the party will not split as Marco Almeida, 2017 PSD candidate, decided not to run as an Independent. However, in Figueira da Foz, Santana Lopes seems to be on the verge of running as an Independent, splitting the PSD vote;

More updates will be posted when available.

[Mike88]

Police raided Lisbon city hall for suspicion of corruption in urban projects in the city:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1384563280383934466

CML. PJ seized documents, cell phones and computers.

The police (PJ) raided the headquarters of Lisbon city hall, this morning, to collect documents and evidences about suspicion of corrupt deals and abuse of power in urban projects in the capital. The main focus seems to be the former urban councillor, Manuel Salgado, who is already a suspect in this investigation and his house was also raided by the police. The police said they are collecting evidence in a case where Mr Salgado and the Urban offices of Lisbon city are accused of "abuse of power, economic participation in business, corruption, malfeasance, violation of urban rules and influence peddling." Mr Salgado left his office in 2019 and since then there's suspicions about his decisions within Lisbon city hall. The mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina (PS), says he's calm, that he maintains his trust in the decision made by his former councillor and that he wants everything clarified as the city is one of the main stakeholders in all of this.

[Mike88]

Prosecutors accuse activist who interrupted Costa's speech in 2019, of qualified disobedience and could face 2 years in jail:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1384746297949818880

Prosecutor accuses activist who interrupted António Costa of qualified disobedience.

The DA office prosecutors have decided to charge the activist that, in 2019, interrupted a speech of PM António Costa of qualified disobedience, a crime punished with up to 2 years in jail. The activist, Francisco Pedro, from the Extinction Rebellion Portugal movement, interrupted a speech of Costa protesting against the construction of an airport in Montijo, which is now suspended. The prosecutors accuse the activist of "disturbing public order and tranquility" and of not communicating in advance the protest to Lisbon city hall. The trial is set for 13 January 2022. The activist, Francisco Pedro, says that this is a move to punish those who fight for what they believe, adding that it reveals the kind of institutions Portugal has by saying that our resources are being used for a useless accusation like this rather than to stop airport expansion. The PM office was contacted by Renascença radio but no response or comment was given.

[Mike88]

Internal feud in the PSD: Party's tribunal says there's matter to sanction Rui Rio and party caucus leader Adão Silva because of the Euthanasia vote.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1384894871425662977

Euthanasia: PSD jurisdiction considers that there is a matter for disciplinary proceedings against Rio and Adão Silva

The Euthanasia matter is again creating tensions within the PSD. Last October, a PSD member from Braga sent a complaint against the party's leader for not following the vote in the 2020 party's congress that mandated the PSD to support a referendum of Euthanasia. Rui Rio was never in favour of euthanasia and on the Parliamentary vote on the issue, he gave freedom of vote for MPs. Now, the party's tribunal says there is matter to sanction Mr Rio and Mr Silva. The tribunal proposes written reprimand for Mr Rio and the loss of mandate for Mr Silva, but Rio's leadership is furious with the party's tribunal. In a written letter to the tribunal's chairman, Paulo Colaço, accusing him of damaging the party's image and of having "Stalinist tics". They add that they will do everything in their power to preserve the good name of the party.

It's always astonishing how the PSD creates problems that no one cares about, only them.