🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Also, today is the Ervededo parish by-election. Almost 900 voters are registered. The PS is looking for its second parish by-election gain since 2017 and for the 1st gain from the PSD. The PSD is looking to hold on to a parish which they have dominated in the last decades.

So far, very low turnout in the Ervededo by-election. At noon, only 26% of registered voters had cast a ballot and because Chaves municipality has mandatory curfew after 1PM, turnout is unlikely to increase very much until 7PM. There will probably be another update before 7PM.

[Mike88]

Also, today is the Ervededo parish by-election. Almost 900 voters are registered. The PS is looking for its second parish by-election gain since 2017 and for the 1st gain from the PSD. The PSD is looking to hold on to a parish which they have dominated in the last decades.

So far, very low turnout in the Ervededo by-election. At noon, only 26% of registered voters had cast a ballot and because Chaves municipality has mandatory curfew after 1PM, turnout is unlikely to increase very much until 7PM. There will probably be another update before 7PM.

Another update. Turnout seems to be soaring during the afternoon. At 4PM, almost 48% had cast a ballot, which means that the final turnout will be very close to the 2017 numbers or even surpass it. The 1PM curfew isn't having an effect on turnout as I feared.

[Mike88]

Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)

Socialistslide!

Obviously there's the caveat of a very small sample of voters making swings easier, but a 21% swing is still quite dramatic.

[Mike88]

Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)

Socialistslide!

Obviously there's the caveat of a very small sample of voters making swings easier, but a 21% swing is still quite dramatic.

453 votes out of 882 registered. The PS got 265 votes, the PSD 181. 7 ballots were blank or invalid. To be honest, even I would vote for the PS if I lived in this parish. The former PSD president used parish money to pay gamble debts in a casino in Verin, Spain. The guy was nuts! xD

Also, this result is very bad for the PSD in Chaves. The party suffered a surprise defeat in 2017, although the signs were there, way before, for the PSD that they were on the verge of losing Chaves. Chaves is very loyal to the PSD in national elections, but in local elections it has a history of swinging between PS and PSD. For next year's election, the PSD has no shot in taking back Chaves, the city is a safe PS.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

453 votes out of 882 registered. The PS got 265 votes, the PSD 181. 7 ballots were blank or invalid. To be honest, even I would vote for the PS if I lived in this parish. The former PSD president used parish money to pay gamble debts in a casino in Verin, Spain. The guy was nuts! xD

Also, this result is very bad for the PSD in Chaves. The party suffered a surprise defeat in 2017, although the signs were there, way before, for the PSD that they were on the verge of losing Chaves. Chaves is very loyal to the PSD in national elections, but in local elections it has a history of swinging between PS and PSD. For next year's election, the PSD has no shot in taking back Chaves, the city is a safe PS.

Huh, I didn't realize you are usually a PSD voter (are you?)

[Mike88]

Huh, I didn't realize you are usually a PSD voter (are you?)

Yep. I have always voted PSD in national elections, however I have voted PS a few times in local elections. Next year's Presidential election, I'm considering voting for Ana Gomes because, IMO, Marcelo need a bit of a shake up, and because I like her anti-corruption message.

Border Control Agency (SEF) controversy continues: Interior minister shuts up the Police National Director because of the idea of extinguishing SEF and the current Police to create a single Police force.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1338223355997118466

Eduardo Cabrita says it's not "a police director" who announces reform of the SEF

It being a tense night in the Government. During the weekend, reports said that the government was considering ending the current Border Control Agency (SEF) and reintegrate their staff in the National Republican Guard and the Police. Police unions say that's fine but that they need more money and better working conditions. But, this Sunday, this escalated. The National Director of the Police was called to attend a meeting with President Marcelo, in a weird move that surprised the media and pundits. The "official reason" of the meeting was because of the killing of a police officer by prison guard in Evora while he was rescuing a woman who was beaten up that prison guard. However, when the meeting ended, the Police director said it would be a good idea to extinguish the SEF and the Police and create a single National Police force. The media was stunned by the statement and so was the Interior minister. Eduardo Cabrita, under fire because of the assassination of an Ukrainian immigrant in Lisbon airport, publicly shut up the Police director by saying "no police director announces reforms". But the minister didn't confirm if a single Police force idea was on the table.

[Mike88]

CDS internal crisis in the horizon? CDS MP, Cecília Meireles, advised to leave her seat for CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. She says she won't be silenced.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1338220281857511424

Cecília Meireles challenged to leave Parliament to make way for Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos.

Last Saturday's national CDS council didn't discuss just the Presidential elections, but also the party's internal situation. The media reports that many CDS councillors, close to the party leader, asked and advised MP Cecília Meireles to leave her seat in order for Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos to be in Parliament. Ms. Meireles was the sole CDS MP elected from Porto, while Mr. Santos was the number 2 on the list. Ms Meireles criticized the current party strategy and many of those close to the leader were furious and asked for her to leave her seat. According to reports, she was stunned by the proposal and asked for "respect" from the leadership and that she won't be silenced.

A possible leadership contest, during 2021, in CDS is not out of the question. Many pundits argue that the really bad state of the party, polling 2-3% and sometimes in last place, is putting a lot of CDS members furious with the current leader and many are already asking for a change in leadership.

[crals]

Cecília should've become leader instead of Chicão imo. She's by far the best talent CDS has. But I guess maybe they weren't ready for two female leaders in a row.

[Mike88]

Cecília should've become leader instead of Chicão imo. She's by far the best talent CDS has. But I guess maybe they weren't ready for two female leaders in a row.

Indeed. She is, currently, the best asset CDS has in Parliament. CDS thought that the only way to fight the CHEGA surge was to copy CHEGA. I think they have now realised the big mistake they did, as voters would preffer the original rather than the crappy copy, of course. I have doubts that "Chicão" will lead CDS in the next general elections. The party will have a new leader by then, either Cecília Meireles or Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, IMO.

[Mike88]

2021 election campaign: Ana Gomes and Marisa Matias consider asking for a review in the legalization of CHEGA if elected President.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1338622167299330051

Presidential elections: Ana Gomes will ask for a review of the legality of Chega if elected President

The 2021 Presidential candidates are now giving a lot of TV interviews, as normal campaign is basically halted do to the pandemic, and positions start to be defined. Ana Gomes and Marisa Matias have, in the last few days, pressed on the idea that there should be a review of the legalization of CHEGA as a party by the Constitutional Court. Both consider the party to violate the Constitution and democratic values, and are arguing for a review in its current acceptance by the Courts. Marisa Matias says that, if elected, she would not approve a government supported by CHEGA. Ana Gomes says that she would do the same, and also attacked Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, after he said there's nothing a President can do about possible party supports for governments, that he cannot uphold the Constitution and approve a government with the support of CHEGA.

Legal experts and Constitutionalists say that it would very difficult, if not impossible, for the Constitutional Court to reverse CHEGA's legalization as a party saying it could create a "counterproductive reaction". Some also point that there's no legal ground for a President to reject CHEGA's integration in a future cabinet and that this kind of rhetoric could actually benefit CHEGA in the polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, simply declaring far-right* parties illegal rarely works.

(*as opposed to genuine neo-Nazis and the like, where the calculus is somewhat different)

[VPH]

It would probably strengthen Chega's appeal by creating martyrs out of them. Not smart, but it's not like Gomes or Matias stand any chance of beating Marcelo.

[Mike88]

I believe this move is a mistake from Ana Gomes, but for Marisa Matias, unfortunately for her, may be her only campaign pitch. Gomes should focus heavily on her rhetoric of an anti-corruption champion and that the system needs a change. Going in this path of talking about ilegalization of CHEGA could turn off many on the center/center-right who, like me, are not very inclined to support Marcelo this time. It's one thing to attack Ventura and all of his ludicrous claims, but talking about banning parties isn't the right path for Gomes, in my view.

[Mike88]

CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1/Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

68% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes
  8% André Ventura
  5% Marisa Matias
  5% João Ferreira
  1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  0% Others

Support by party:

PS: 66% Marcelo; 7% Gomes; 1% Ventura; 1% Ferreira; 1% Matias
PSD: 69% Marcelo; 4% Ventura; 3% Gomes; 1% Matias
BE: 28% Marcelo; 17% Gomes; 13% Matias; 2% Ventura
CDU: 38% Ferreira; 32% Marcelo; 3% Matias
CHEGA: 72% Ventura; 13% Marcelo
PAN: 23% Matias; 18% Marcelo; 5% Gomes
IL: 30% Marcelo; 15% Mayan Gonçalves; 6% Gomes
CDS: 58% Marcelo; 5% Gomes; 5% Ventura

Poll conducted between 4 and 11 December 2020. Polled 1,315 voters. MoE of 2.70%.

[Mike88]

Eduardo Cabrita, Interior Minister, goes to Parliament but the media points he didn't answer many, many questions:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1338940882930819072

Eduardo Cabrita: two hours ignoring criticism and without explaining what he will do to SEF

The expected Interior minister hearing in Parliament fell flat. Pundits and media are stunned that the minister, Eduardo Cabrita, didn't answer most questions made by parties, nor he responded to the main criticisms towards his handling of the controversy. About the future of the Border Control Agency, Mr Cabrita was also vague, only saying that a reform will be announced in January 2021. He did, however, a jibe towards the Police National Director, again, saying that Police should "only talk about matters within its competence".

Also, this evening, RTP continued its series of interviews with candidates and tonight, André Ventura was the invitee by RTP:

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1338973702164262912

Presidential: André Ventura admits swearing in a government with the PCP members

Responding to the criticisms Ana Gomes and Marisa Matias are making towards CHEGA, André Ventura said that if he's elected President, he would sworn in any cabinet, even if it had PCP members, adding that he would respect the "will of the Portuguese" and that "as a democrat, would warn" about issues. He also accused the left candidates of not having "democratic sense" by wanting to ban his party. He was also confronted with the RTP poll, that places him 3rd, and was asked if he would still resign if he polls 3rd. Mr Ventura, now, says that the decision will be made by his party.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's kind of surprising to see that the level of support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the PS is basically the same as in the PSD. I would have expected more defections towards leftist candidates.

Also confronting how many BE voters support Matias or CDU voters support Ferreira to how many CHEGA voters support Ventura gives you a strong insight into the veridicity of the expression "Ventura is CHEGA".

Regarding Ventura's interview:
I mean, it was already obvious to everyone here that his pledge was straight-up BS, but backtracking on it even before the election is so lame. I guess he's thinking it's a good way to save face in advance. I don't think it is.

[Mike88]

It's kind of surprising to see that the level of support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the PS is basically the same as in the PSD. I would have expected more defections towards leftist candidates.

Also confronting how many BE voters support Matias or CDU voters support Ferreira to how many CHEGA voters support Ventura gives you a strong insight into the veridicity of the expression "Ventura is CHEGA".

Regarding Ventura's interview:
I mean, it was already obvious to everyone here that his pledge was straight-up BS, but backtracking on it even before the election is so lame. I guess he's thinking it's a good way to save face in advance. I don't think it is.

The PSD and PS support for Marcelo are, more or less, on the line with other polls. The PS, in this one, seems a bit more supportive for Marcelo, while other polls give PS support for Marcelo around 60%. Ana Gomes isn't very loved by the PS as she has a been, in the past, very critical of the party due to some corrupt and incorrect practices, like the nepotism scandal last year. I still believe she will get a very good chunk of the PS vote in her favour, and to be honest, I also found curious that Ventura and Gomes are neck and neck in PSD voters. The polling company, however, predicts that Marcelo's vote share will drop a lot by election day.

The BE, CDU results, if true, are a disaster for them, especially BE. BE has been dropping a lot in the polls lately, and Matias, like I said above in another post, has basically nothing to sell. Her campaign strategy, so far, seems to defeat Ventura, not to mention her awkward and ideological flip-flopping. Also, curious that, in the poll, there's more BE supporters voting in Ventura than PS supporters.

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.

[CumbrianLefty]

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.

Of course, they can make such a "promise" knowing that they are highly unlikely to win and thus be expected to at least try and make it actually happen. In the meantime, it plays well their their "base".

[Mike88]

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.

Of course, they can make such a "promise" knowing that they are highly unlikely to win and thus be expected to at least try and make it actually happen. In the meantime, it plays well their their "base".

Not to mention that if he indeed resigned from CHEGA, the party would basically colapse. CHEGA is a one man show.

[Mike88]

The return... of the Jedi? Rui Rio considering running Santana Lopes as a PSD candidate in the next local elections.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1339350977179168772

Santana had dinner with Rio to talk about local elections. Candidacy under review

The media is reporting, this evening, that former Alliance leader Pedro Santana Lopes and PSD leader Rui Rio, had dinner in Lisbon and both talked about the 2021 local elections. Santana Lopes left the PSD in 2018, and created his own party, the Alliance. His new political project turned out to be a huge fiasco, as the party only polled 0.8% in the 2019 general elections. He left the leadership of his party during the middle of this year. Now, it seems he could be a PSD candidate in 3 possible cities, Lisbon included, it seems. Others options are Sintra and Figueira da Foz, where he was also mayor (1998-2001).

As a PSD voter, I sure hope they put him leading a list in a safe PS or PSD city, if he even says yes to running. Figueira da Foz seems the best place for him, IMO, they still love him there and in fact that city gave his party its best results, almost 3%, in 2019. Putting him, again, as a PSD candidate in Lisbon is just literally giving up on winning the capital, IMO. Plus, they have much better people to run in the capital.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Santana Lopes says "God forbid!" on a possible 2021 local run.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1339571313271218176

"Nothing, nothing, nothing. God forbid." Santana Lopes was not polled nor does he want to be a candidate in municipalities

After the reported dinner yesterday, at Tivoli Hotel in Lisbon, between Santana Lopes and PSD leader Rui Rio, speculation surfaced that Santana would be a candidate in the 2021 local elections either in Lisbon, Sintra or Figueira da Foz. But, this afternoon, Santana denied any chance of running: "Nothing, nothing, nothing. God forbid.". He guarantees that Rui Rio didn't asked him to run nor would he accept that task. He also adds that the dinner invitation was made by someone else, and not from Mr Rio. He said that they talked about politics and about a possible snap general election, nothing more.

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership". A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership". A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.

Ouch!

I hope Santana cares about the Second Commandment more than Marcelo.

[Mike88]

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership". A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.

Ouch!

I hope Santana cares about the Second Commandment more than Marcelo.

Marcelo now acknowledges that the "Christ gaffe" was a huge mistake and that it cast a shadow over his term as PSD leader as a not very trustworthy person. Now, Santana, the guy hasn't win an election since 2001, and he has run for everything, PM, mayor, PSD leader and lost. Maybe his telling the truth, but you never know.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:

Vote share %:

39% PS (+2)
25% PSD (-2)
  8% BE (nc)
  7% CHEGA (nc)
  7% CDU (+1)
  2% PAN (-2)
  2% CDS (nc)
  1% IL (-1)
  3% Others (-1)
  5% Blank/Invalid (+3)
 
Government's job approval:

51% Approve (+2)
42% Disapprove (-1)
  7% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted between 11 and 25 November 2020. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.

A bit of an old poll, unfortunately, as it doesn't cover the big headlines of the last 3/4 weeks: the budget/Novo Banco fiasco; the TAP fiasco and the ongoing SEF/Ihor scandal. Curious to see if the PS share goes down or holds up.