🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election debates: TV networks propose 15 one-on-one debates and 1 debate between all the candidates.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1336191588003930112

Presidentials: Televisions want to hold 15 one-on-one debates in January

The 3 main networks in Portugal, RTP, SIC and TVI, will propose a series of debates between the main candidates for the January Presidential elections. The meetings between the campaigns and the networks are expected to start in the next few days and the networks are proposing 15 one-on-one debates between the 6 main candidates: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, Ventura, Marisa Matias, João Ferreira and Tiago Mayan Gonçalves. RTP will also propose a debate with all the candidates. The networks want to start to broadcast the debates on January 2, 8 days before the beginning of the official campaign period. In 2016, there were a record 26 debates between the candidates!!

In his announcement speech, President Marcelo said he would like to debate face-to-face with many of the candidates and that this would be his preferred debate model. The most interesting debates will be between the trio Marcelo-Gomes-Ventura.

The campaign is continuing with candidates giving many interview and collecting signatures. Ana Gomes, in an interview to Observador newspaper, criticized Marcelo for hurting the rule of law after the President confessed he believed the dead of PM Sá Carneiro, in 1980, was an attack not an accident, contrary to what all the courts ruled on the matter. Ms Gomes also said she wouldn't shake André Ventura's hand and that she believes there are aspects of CHEGA that would rule it as illegal by the Constitutional Court. Ventura already responded saying that he's fine with that as Ms Gomes shacked the hand of many "illustrious people" like José Sócrates. BE candidate, Marisa Matias, also did an interview for TVI, where she branded herself as a "social democrat". Social media was quite busy because of this statement.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

How do you manage so many debates?
And why do you even need them? It's not a round-robin football tournament lmao

By the way, I bet whatever you will on Ventura having a total meltdown in at least one out of the debate with Ana "friend of ciganos" Gomes and the one with Marisa "commie Mother Teresa" Matias. Probably both.

[Mike88]

How do you manage so many debates?
And why do you even need them? It's not a round-robin football tournament lmao

By the way, I bet whatever you will on Ventura having a total meltdown in at least one out of the debate with Ana "friend of ciganos" Gomes and the one with Marisa "commie Mother Teresa" Matias. Probably both.

It's a way TV networks use to give equal treatment for all candidates. Normally, when there's a lot of debates, there is one every night, and I think this will be the case time, again. Of course, the debates more watched are between the main candidates, the other ones are less watched. The same happens in the general elections, PS vs PSD debates have much more audience than debates between the smaller parties.

It will be interesting to see how he behaves. The Gomes vs Ventura debate will probably be a food fight, but the Ventura-Marcelo and Marcelo-Gomes debates will also be interesting. Marcelo isn't a very strong debater so he could face a difficult task as Ventura and Gomes have a some of experience in debating (Ventura is known for trainwreck/ludicrous debates on CMTV). The Matias vs Ventura debate has also some potential as Marisa Matias is very strong in debates.

[Mike88]

Ventura and Gomes have a some of experience in debating (Ventura is known for trainwreck/ludicrous debates on CMTV). The Matias vs Ventura debate has also some potential as Marisa Matias is very strong in debates.

This is Ventura debating football on CMTV: (a preview of what could happen in January, maybe)

[Mike88]

TAP airlines: Government approves recovery plan in a snap cabinet meeting. Company will need almost 2 billion euros until 2024.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1336401467306094593

TAP needs three billion by 2024. Profits only in 2025

The Government has approved the TAP airlines recovery plan in a snap cabinet meeting, during yesterday afternoon and night. The plan proposes massive layoffs, cuts in wages and the sale of several airplanes adding to this billions of euros to recapitalize the company by the State. The plan will be delivered to the EU on Thursday and presented to parties during the next few days. Workers unions are furious with the plan and are asking the government to ask Brussels for a delay in delivering the plan as, according to them, the market forecasts for the company are impossible to achieve. After the 1.2 billion euros the State injected in the company this year, it's forecast that the company needs more 1.8 billion euros in order to survive until 2024.

This dossier is turning into a political storm as the government wants to force Parliament to pass the deal, even as this isn't an obligation of Parliament. PSD accuses the PS of incoherence by wanting a vote on TAP, but refusing one for the Novo Banco.

[Mike88]

Border control chairwoman resigns due to the assassination of an Ukrainian citizen in Lisbon airport in March:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1336657097963032576

SEF director resigns after case of Ukrainian citizen killed at Lisbon airport

The very controversial assassination of an Ukrainian citizen by border patrol officers in Lisbon airport, last March, forced, today, the SEF (Border Control agency) chairwoman, Cristina Gatões, to finally resign. Her handling of the events and investigations were highly criticized and many demanded her resignation for months now. On March 2020, an Ukrainian citizen, Ihor Homenyuk, arrived at Lisbon airport with no documents and was detained by border patrol agents. However, the events afterwards ended on border patrol agents beating up Mr Homenyuk till he died. The 3 agents are now charged with murder. She and the minister of Internal Affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, are accused of bad management in the border control agency and a new controversy surged as the interior minister announced that panic bottons would be installed in cells in Lisbon airport to avoid situations like in March.

This resignation also happens just a few days after the EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs, Ylva Johansson, said the dead of Ihor Homenyuk was a "horrible violation of human rights" and that changes in leadership were necessary. The opposition also attacked the government, with the PSD demanding action by the minister, in that he either resigned or he dismissed the SEF chairwoman.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that sounds bad.

[Mike88]

Well, that sounds bad.

This was going to happen sooner or later as the government's and SEF's handling of this was just ridiculous. The minister and the SEF, at the beginning, gave different dates on when they heard about the event and when investigations started, then the agents were charged with murder and the SEF chairwoman recognized that what happen was in the grounds of torture. But then case dragged on for months, with reports surfacing that this wasn't an isolated case. All then culminated, like I wrote above, in the decision to install panic bottons in cells, which was received by the media, pundits and opposition like a bad joke.

The Interior minister now says that SEF will undergo a deep restructuring in order to separate policing from administrative work. But the minister isn't in a very good position also as there are reports that the now former SEF chairwoman could be posted in a Portuguese embassy post in London regarding Brexit.

[Mike88]

TAP airlines: PS rejects voting the plan in Parliament as cabinet members stopped Pedro Nuno Santos's attempt to put the plan to a vote in Parliament.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1336756266685718528

PS rules out the need to vote on TAP's plan in the AR and amending budget

During this afternoon's hearings, where the government was receiving parties to present the TAP airlines recovery plan, the PS surprised the press by saying it didn't support a vote on the plan in Parliament. The statement made by the PS deputy, Ana Catarina Mendes, was in contradiction with the reports coming from the government that a vote on the matter was certain. However, it seems that in Tuesday's late night cabinet meeting, cabinet members stopped Pedro Nuno Santos's, minister of Infrastructures, idea of voting the plan. Público newspaper says that others ministers refused a vote on the matter by saying it didn't make sense that a decision that is the strict responsibility of the government, should pass by Parliament. PSD leader, Rui Rio, also twetted, during the afternoon saying the vote would be unprecedented and that the government is running away from the consequences of their own actions.

So, it seems that the TAP airlines plan will not be voted in Parliament, as the media and pundits were reporting. But, Brussels can still raise problems about the plan presented by the government.

[Mike88]

Border control controversy: Minister of Internal Affairs will go to Parliament next week to answer questions by MPs, as the PS deputy leader explains her words after trashing the minister in a TV debate.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1337030070733422597

Minister doesn't resign and regrets death of Ukrainian in SEF.

The minister of internal affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, continues under fire due to the dead of an Ukrainian immigrant under custody of border control agents. With the opposition demanding his resignation, Mr Cabrita says he will not resign as minister and that he has already condemned the tragic incident that happened in Lisbon airport in March. However, the PS is very uncomfortable with this whole situation, so much so that yesterday night, the PS deputy leader, Ana Catarina Mendes, trashed the minister handling of this situation on TV debate. Ms Mendes said that the minister needs to end the "deafening silence" that is coming from his office and that his statements and press releases don't seem compatible with the rule of law. But, this morning, she had changed her tone and said that the minister has all the conditions to stay in office and that the main responsible for the situation is the former SEF (Border Control Agency) chairwoman.

The media is really pressing on this issue and they also talked with the wife of the Ukrainian immigrant killed by border agents. Oksana Homenyuk, the widow of Ihor Homeniuk, told to SIC TV she has a huge hatred towards Portugal and that she had no contact from Portuguese authorities to apologize or give some kind of support. She adds that she had to pay herself for the transport of the body back to Ukraine, which cost more than 2,200 euros.

[Mike88]

Awkward press conference of the Interior minister as he announces that cabinet approved a reparation for the family of the Ukrainian immigrant killed:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1337071462977470464

Resignation? Eduardo Cabrita says that "only the Prime Minister can answer"

The minister of Internal Affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, announced after the regular cabinet meeting on Thursday, that the State will pay a reparation to the family of the Ukrainian immigrant killed by border agents. No sum of money was announced, however. But, the press conference then turned awkward as the minister tried to justify his actions by accusing the media of only talking about this issue because he raised it in March, and ironically welcomed the media into the "fight for human rights". Some reporters are accusing the minister of lying. Mr Cabrita also said that any questions about his position in cabinet should be ask to the PM.

At the same time, President Marcelo made a statement in the Presidential Palace, saying his approach on this issue was very careful as there is still a legal challenge under way, but added that we need to investigate if this is just an isolated case or just one among many. If the latter is proved, the system has to change and that this SEF (Border Control Agency) should end. He concluded saying that if it's proven that the system failed, we should also evaluate if the current protagonists should remain in office. The media is labeling this as clear and warning sign for PM Costa and his Internal Affairs minister.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC/Expresso newspaper on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

66% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1)
13% Ana Gomes (+1)
  9% André Ventura (+1)
  7% Marisa Matias (nc)
  5% João Ferreira (-1)
  0% Other candidates (-2)

Hypothetical 2nd round matchups: (raw numbers)

62% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
12% Ana Gomes
  3% Blank/Invalid
  6% Would not vote
15% Undecided
  2% Didn't respond

71% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  7% André Ventura
  3% Blank/Invalid
  6% Would not vote
10% Undecided
  3% Didn't respond

Poll conducted between 11 and 25 November 2020. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: One-on-one debates between candidates in the first week of January. RTP will host an all candidates debate on 12 January.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1337131536022433796

First week of the year with 15 debates between presidential candidates.

The 3 main TV networks and representatives of the 6 main candidacies, all with some kind of party support, reached an agreement for the timetable of debates between candidates for the January elections. Between 2 and 9 January, there will be 15 one-on-one debates between the 6 main candidates, with a final all candidates debate on RTP, schedule for 12 January. The schedule debates are the following:

2 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs Marisa Matias - RTP1 (9PM)
                 João Ferreira vs André Ventura - TVI24 (10PM)

3 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs Tiago Mayan - RTP1 (9PM)

4 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs João Ferreira - TVI (9PM)
                 Marisa Matias vs Ana Gomes - SIC Notícias (10PM)

5 January: João Ferreira vs Ana Gomes - RTP1 (9PM)
                 André Ventura vs Tiago Mayan - SIC Notícias (10PM)

6 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs André Ventura - SIC (9PM)
                 João Ferreira vs Tiago Mayan - TVI24 (10PM)

7 January: Marisa Matias vs André Ventura - SIC (9PM)
                 Ana Gomes vs Tiago Mayan - TVI24 (10PM)

8 January: Ana Gomes vs André Ventura - TVI (9PM)
                 Marisa Matias vs João Ferreira - RTP1 (9:30PM)

9 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs Ana Gomes - RTP1 (9PM)
                 Marisa Matias vs Tiago Mayan - SIC (10PM)

12 January: All candidates debate - RTP1 (9PM)

IMO, this lineup is just stupid. There are debates that will have almost zero audience, especially those after big expected debates like Ventura vs Gomes, Marcelo vs Gomes, Marcelo vs Ventura and Ventura vs Matias. It would have been better to extend the debates to almost near election day, or until early voting day, 18 January. But, whatever, it is what it is.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. SIC/Expresso must really have money to throw away to commission a poll that includes hypothetical runoff matchups. I'd be extremely shocked if Marcelo fell below 50%.

2. The debate schedule seems indeed silly, but in my opinion there should only be one debate, that with all candidates together, so I don't particularly care.

[Mike88]

1. SIC/Expresso must really have money to throw away to commission a poll that includes hypothetical runoff matchups. I'd be extremely shocked if Marcelo fell below 50%.

2. The debate schedule seems indeed silly, but in my opinion there should only be one debate, that with all candidates together, so I don't particularly care.

1. Polling companies almost always, even in forgone conclusion elections, ask hypothetical matchups. 5 years ago, literally no poll said Marcelo would be forced into a 2nd round, but pollsters made hypothetical matchups questions anyway. The same happened during Cavaco's reelection in 2011. Marcelo is will in on the 1st round, that basically certain. The main question is what will be the margin, especially in an election in which turnout is expected to reach record low levels overall, my guess is that the overall turnout will be somewhere between 30-40%.

2. One-on-one debates are interesting, in my opinion, and create, sometimes, interesting dynamics. But, exactly, this debate lineup doesn't make sense. I myself will only watch "the big 4 one-on-one" debates and the RTP all candidates debate. While zapping may watch parts of the others, but unlikely.

Also, regarding the ongoing Interior minister controversy, PM Costa says he has full confidence in the minister:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1337353175649710083

António Costa maintains "total confidence" in the Minister of Internal Administration - RTP Notícias

PM António Costa announced he has full confidence in his Interior minister, Eduardo Cabrita, as the ongoing controversy surrounding the assassination of an Ukrainian immigrant by border control agents is putting the minister under fire. The PM said the minister "did what he had to do", adding that the minister has reforms ready for the Border Control Agency (SEF). Pundits, media and the opposition are demanding the resignation of the minister and some media outlets say the PS is worried with how fragile the minister situation is right now. Some PS MPs are saying, in private, the whole situation is an "embarrassment" for the State. On social media, the hashtag "#CabritaOut", is trending since yesterday.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll data on the ideology of the electorate:

Ideology position:

32.3% Center
26.9% Center-left to leftwing
25.7% Center-right to rightwing
15.1% None

Party ideological positions: (0=left; 10=right)

4.6 PS
6.8 PSD
3.7 BE
2.8 CDU
7.6 CDS
4.7 PAN
7.2 CHEGA
5.9 IL
4.0 Livre

Party sympathy:

26.4% PS
13.6% PSD
  4.7% BE
  4.7% CDU
  3.8% CHEGA
  1.4% PAN
  0.8% CDS
  0.6% IL
  0.1% Livre
  0.2% Others
39.3% None
  4.4% Don't know

Poll conducted between 11 and 25 November 2020. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.

The general election poll numbers I believe will only be published next week. However, these numbers are interesting. The gap between left and right was reduced from 2.4% in October to just 1.2% now. In February, the right-left gap was 12.3% in favour of the left. Also, interesting that voters see CDS a bit more to the right than CHEGA.

[Niemeyerite]

So people think Chega is to the left of CDS and just slightly more conservative than Rio's PSD? That's surprising.

[Mike88]

So people think Chega is to the left of CDS and just slightly more conservative than Rio's PSD? That's surprising.

Yes, however, the number of voters saying they are CDS voters is very, very small in the sample, while CHEGA's is much higher, so, the CDS numbers may be underestimated. But, this fits into the logic that many CHEGA voters are also people from the center ground who are just fed up with the current system and maybe don't see it as a far-right party.

[Mike88]

Ervededo parish by-election: PSD files complaint against the PS as they accuse the party of giving Christmas baskets just 3 days before the election.

PSD Chaves files complaint to the National Election Commission

With the Ervededo parish by-election just a few days away, on December 13, the campaign is in the final stretch and the PSD has now filed a complaint against the PS for giving Christmas baskets full of food products, to many households in the parish. The PSD accuses the PS an "immoral, shamefull, and also illegal" act. The Social Democrats also accuse the Socialist of using the current fragile state of many families for political proposes. The PS responded with the accusation saying these Christmas baskets distribution are happening all across Chaves municipality, that it's weird the PSD is against giving some kind of support for families in need and that the PSD should worry with the money the previous PSD parish president of Ervededo diverted to private expenses.

901 voters will be called to elect a new parish assembly next Sunday, for a very small 11 month term, and it's expected this race to be a PS gain from the PSD.

[Mike88]

Ervededo parish by-election: PSD files complaint against the PS as they accuse the party of giving Christmas baskets just 3 days before the election.

The Electoral Commission (CNE) sided with the PSD and ordered that all Christmas baskets distributions in the parish to be stopped until the election is over. In the CNE view, the distribution of baskets "can be understood as favoring or harming one competitor to the elections, to the detriment or advantage of another".

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa gave an interview this evening, and let's say that he threw almost everyone under the bus:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1337514504825925633

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa admits to accept a government with parliamentary support from CHEGA

The interview on SIC TV was very tense. The 2 journalists pressed Marcelo a lot, mainly due to the Ukrainian immigrant killing, questioning the President why he didn't talked with the widow, and why were press realeases about the dead of David Bowie more important than this. The President responded by saying he didn't talk with widow because there was an ongoing judicial process, however, he did said he warned PM Costa several times about the issue but that he seems to not have listen. He also defended that TAP airlines should not cease to exist mainly due to the Portuguese communities overseas. About the possible political future of the country, President Marcelo didn't said that Rui Rio is the current clear alternative to Costa, but rather that Mr Rio "is growing" in his role. He also said he would accept a government supported by CHEGA saying that if CHEGA exists is because the mainstream parties were asleep and that he warned of the danger of parties like CHEGA surging, mainly to PM Costa and PSD leaders.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.8% PS (+0.5)
29.4% PSD (-0.3)
  7.2% BE (-1.1)
  5.3% CDU (-0.5)
  5.2% CHEGA (+0.2)
  2.5% CDS (-0.2) 
  2.0% PAN (-0.2)
  1.1% IL (+0.1)
  8.5% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Q: When a Covid vaccine is available, will you trust it and take it?

48.2% Yes
37.2% No
14.3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 and 10 December 2020. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PDR candidate drops out from the race; João Ferreira and Mayan Gongalves have enough signatures to be on the ballot.

https://twitter.com/SolOnline/status/1337750663116304386

Bruno Fialho withdraws from candidacy for Belém due to the moment the country is going through

With just 12 days left until the deadline to submit signatures to the Constitutional Court, candidates are rushing to get signatures. However, some candidates are dropping from the race. PDR leader and candidate, Bruno Fialho, announced, this morning, he was dropping out from the race even though he had more than the required 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot. He says this race will a "media circus" and therefore he doesn't want to spend thousands of euros in this race. This leaves 8 candidates so far, but the number could still change before and after December 24. João Ferreira, CDU candidate, already delivered his signatures to the Court, and IL candidate, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced be collected more than 10,000 signatures and will deliver them next week. President Marcelo is also collecting signatures, and now he even has the help of some PS members as he's still far away from the 7,500 signatures needed, according to Expresso newspaper.

CDS will also announce today who they will support in the elections. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to support President Marcelo, saying he's a Catholic and shares CDS's values, plus that he's the right choice against the "threat" of CHEGA. The CDS national council will vote on the matter during today.

[Mike88]

CDS will also announce today who they will support in the elections. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to support President Marcelo, saying he's a Catholic and shares CDS's values, plus that he's the right choice against the "threat" of CHEGA. The CDS national council will vote on the matter during today.

According to media reports, the CDS national council is being a trainwreck. Many CDS members are trashing the leader of the party and even Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa for being the "savior of the Geringonça", the name the PS-BE-CDU agreement is known for.

Update: CDS approved their support to President Marcelo with 82% of the councillors in the party voting in favour. However, like I wrote above, there's no enthusiasm for Marcelo and many, in the meeting, trashed him.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is a boss, undoubtedly.

CDS judging from that national council sounds like an embattled party that is trying to play more-right-wing-than-thou because they don't know where to go and because of CHEGA, which actually checks out if the party is really polling at 2.5%.

Also, what is PDR?

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is a boss, undoubtedly.

CDS judging from that national council sounds like an embattled party that is trying to play more-right-wing-than-thou because they don't know where to go and because of CHEGA, which actually checks out if the party is really polling at 2.5%.

Also, what is PDR?

Well, the media reaction of Marcelo's interview was a bit negative. Pundits say the President tried to excuse himself from his responsibilities regarding the ongoing controversies. The first 15 minutes of the interview were really, really uncomfortable to watch as journalists were really pressing Marcelo and the answers he was giving weren't satisfying the journalists at all.

CDS is the main victim of CHEGA's and IL's arrival. The party has lost all its appeal and right now it common to ask "What's the point of CDS existence?". The more rightwing voters of the party are leaving it for CHEGA, according to polls, plus the more liberal parts are going for PSD and IL. The CDS is really in a hard place and it's unclear how they will get out of this mess.

PDR, Democratic Republican Party, is a party founded in late 2014 by the former lawyers bar association chairman, António Marinho e Pinto after his very successful result in the 2014 EP election, where he got 7.2% of the votes by leading the MPT list. A few months later, he left MPT and formed his own party, PDR, which is a centrist, judicialist and pro-regionalist party. But this project proved to be failure, as in the 2015 general elections the party only polled 1.1%, in the 2019 EP elections just 0.5% and in the 2019 general elections a mere 0.2%.

Also, today is the Ervededo parish by-election. Almost 900 voters are registered. The PS is looking for its second parish by-election gain since 2017 and for the 1st gain from the PSD. The PSD is looking to hold on to a parish which they have dominated in the last decades.