🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1333038595586859010

Jerónimo de Sousa reelected secretary-general. "Political alternative is not possible without the PCP"

The controversial PCP congress in Loures city ended this afternoon with the expectable reelection of Jerónimo de Sousa as PCP leader. He got 127 votes in favour of the party's central committee and 1 against, the first time in his leadership. In his short acceptance speech, Jerónimo de Sousa criticized the prolonged State of Emergency the PS and PSD approved in Parliament, adding this current state hurts people and workers as poverty is rising. He continued saying this can be solved by the policies the PCP introduced in the budget with the support of the PS, but also said the policies are not enough as the PS is "trapped in their own options and choices". He also took a jibe against the BE for not approving the 2021 budget, saying that if there are policies towards the NHS, workers and small businesses it's because the PCP helped pass them, while others decided to give up and forget the problems. He ended his speech by criticizing those who trashed the party for organizing this congress, saying that they created a "reactionary campaign" of fear.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

37.2% PS (+1.7)
23.9% PSD (-3.1)
  7.9% BE (-2.1)
  7.5% CHEGA (+2.1)
  6.5% PAN (+1.3)
  5.8% CDU (+0.1)
  2.2% IL (-1.0)
  1.0% CDS (-0.2) 
  8.0% Others/Invalid (-1.2)

Preferred PM:

50% António Costa (+3)
18% Rui Rio (+1)
22% Neither (-1)
  4% Both (nc)
  9% Undecided (+2)

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 November 2020. Polled 647 votes. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio on the Presidential election:

Vote share %:

62.1% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.6)
16.3% Ana Gomes (-0.9)
  6.6% André Ventura (-1.0)
  5.9% Marisa Matias (+1.2)
  2.1% João Ferreira (+0.5)
  1.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (-0.4)
  5.8% Others/Undecided (+1.1)

42.8% Turnout

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 November 2020. Polled 647 votes. MoE of 3.90%.

[CumbrianLefty]

PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against

I don't suppose the identity of the sole dissident was revealed?

[Mike88]

PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against

I don't suppose the identity of the sole dissident was revealed?

Of course not and this meeting was a secret one, no press or reports from inside the room were allowed.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: President Marcelo expected to announce his run in the next few days, as the PSD machine is already collecting signatures.

https://twitter.com/itwitting/status/1333775697962266624

Presidentials. Marcelo presents his reelection run in the coming days

President Marcelo has made his 2nd term run a tabu, but it's the least known secret in Portuguese politics that he will run for a second term. The delay of his announcement is because of the pandemic and that he doesn't want his reelection candidacy mix with his job as President. However, today, some media outlets are reporting that Marcelo will announce his run in the next few days. i newspaper even reports that the PSD electoral machine is already collecting signatures to put Marcelo on the ballot. The deadline is 24 December. The media is also reporting that he will speak to the country next Friday to announce the extention of the State of Emergency until 4 January 2021, and after, like i newspaper reported, announce his reelection run shortly after.

[Mike88]

Trainwreck visit of CDS leader to restaurant owners on hunger strike in front of Parliament:

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1333778002434396161

CDS leader visits protesters on hunger strike.

Several restaurants owners, led by famous chef Ljubomir Stanisic, have camped in front of Parliament and started a hunger strike against the lack of economic aid from Costa's government towards the restaurant/bars sectors. The huger strike started 5 days ago, and protesters say they will only end the strike if the PM or the Economy minister accept meeting them. The Government says they refuse meeting with the strikers but are willing to talk to official restaurant owners associations. The strike is having a lot of media coverage and this afternoon, CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos visited the site to talk with strikers but all ended in a trainwreck. With TV cameras filming everything, Rodrigues dos Santos was advised to not talk about party politics, but he ultimately started talking about the CDS proposals and was immediately shut up by Ljubomir Stanisic and expelled shortly after from the tent. The visit only lasted 10 minutes and it was clear the embarrassment as the CDS leader talked to the media after the event. Social Media also had a field day with this scene.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Ana Gomes says she took a flu vaccine from France. Drug regulator in Portugal says that what she did is illegal.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1333928129245585410

Ana Gomes took a flu vaccine that came from France. Infarmed says it is illegal

The flu vaccine campaign in Portugal has been a disaster this year, with vaccines shortages across the country and with many people, particularly elderly people, having failed to take the vaccine. The government is accused of flip flops on the issue as they guaranteed, in late summer 2020, that there would be enough vaccines but then, in mid October, acknowledged that there were not enough vaccines. The media reports almost everyday cases of people trying to get the vaccine or other weird episodes related, but now a controversial case emerged. Presidential candidate Ana Gomes wrote on twitter that she took a flu vaccine a friend of her sent from France. She said she was tired of going to pharmacy after pharmacy and not finding a vaccine so she asked a friend. She added that she took the vaccine in a pharmacy and explained everything and no one said it was a problem.

However, Infarmed, the drug regulator in Portugal, has said that what Ana Gomes did is illegal as it's forbidden to import drugs from abroad without medical prescriptions. Drug imports for personal use could also create security and health issues for the patient.

[Mike88]

Electoral Commission ad for the 2021 elections:

The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

Regarding President Marcelo reelection launch, the media is saying it will this Sunday in Cascais city. But all is  very secretive and open to changes still.

[Estrella]

The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.

[Mike88]

The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.

Are you talking about the CNE logo or the 2021 presidential logo at the end of the video? But, yes, the CNE logo looks like the PRI logo. Nonetheless, like I said above, my favourite logo is the one from 2009: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2009/index.html

[Estrella]

The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.

Are you talking about the CNE logo or the 2021 presidential logo at the end of the video? But, yes, the CNE logo looks like the PRI logo. Nonetheless, like I said above, my favourite logo is the one from 2009: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2009/index.html

The latter, but I guess you're right with the CNE logo as well.

[Mike88]

The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.

Are you talking about the CNE logo or the 2021 presidential logo at the end of the video? But, yes, the CNE logo looks like the PRI logo. Nonetheless, like I said above, my favourite logo is the one from 2009: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2009/index.html

The latter, but I guess you're right with the CNE logo as well.

But, well, we can't blame them. The lack of staff and funds, from designers, lawyers and others, limits what they can do, unfortunately.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Marcelo's delay in announcing his reelection candidacy is creating a problem, lack of signatures to be on the ballot.

Marcelo is ready to announce his reelection. But signature collection is becoming more difficult

All of the media is reporting that Marcelo has made up his mind and has decided to run. This is no surprise, however, his delay in announcing his run is creating a big problem, it seems: lack of signatures to be on the ballot. Because of the pandemic, signatures are much harder to get this quickly, the deadline is 24 December, making it very challenging as to be on the ballot, a candidate needs a minimum of 7,500 or a maximum of 15,000 signatures. Other candidates are on the road for months now, but President Marcelo only started creating a real campaign structure in the last few weeks, it seems. Some PSD members are collection signatures using their contacts within the PSD machine, however the official head of the PSD machine, the PSD secretary-general, has said no official campaign of signatures has started, although he knows that some PSD members are persuing this. He added that last time, in 2015, the party and Marcelo took 2 months to collect signatures, which makes the situation this time around even more complicated.

This is what is delaying Marcelo's reelection announcement, as some media outlets say it could happen this Sunday, others say during the next week while others also say that date is still up in the air.

[Mike88]

As of now, some campaign posters of the candidates for the 2021 Presidential elections:

Marisa Matias (BE)
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1324304027983773696

"Marisa, Force Majeure"

André Ventura (CHEGA)
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1329186759100522500

"A President without fear of the system"

Bruno Fialho (PDR)
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1332367920844972033

"The right choice"

[Mike88]

Parliament approves another extention of the State of Emergency:

In favour: PS, PSD and MP Cristina Rodrigues
Against: PCP, PEV, CH and IL
Abstention: BE, CDS, PAN and MP Joacine Katar Moreira

President Marcelo will speak to the country, again, at 8PM.

[Mike88]

Internal tensions in CHEGA continue: Ventura orders that any public criticism of him and the party be sanctioned.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1335334502961438721

Ventura creates a directive that imposes sanctions on militants who criticize leadership. One Setúbal party member has already been suspended

CHEGA internal environment continues very tense, with many criticizing Ventura and his strategy, so Ventura imposed, today, a "cork law" that forbids party members of criticizing the party and his leadership in TV/newspapers, social media and chat rooms. The penalty would be suspension from the party that could lead to a full expulsion from the party. Ventura says that something had to be done to stop the "chaos and constant internal guerrilla" within the party, that is being done by people that only want to weaken and destroy the party. Ventura adds that he doesn't think this hurts democracy within the party As of now, at least one party member from Setúbal district has already been suspended.

[Mike88]

It doesn't seem likely the President Marcelo announces his reelection candidacy today, as some media outlets predicted. Another delay, maybe during the next week, but time is ticking.

We will probably know something, tonight, from the "oracle of Portuguese politics", Luís Marques Mendes, in his TV comentary spot.

[Mike88]

It doesn't seem likely the President Marcelo announces his reelection candidacy today, as some media outlets predicted. Another delay, maybe during the next week, but time is ticking.

We will probably know something, tonight, from the "oracle of Portuguese politics", Luís Marques Mendes, in his TV comentary spot.

Nothing from Marcelo's reelection, but he did announced the government wants to send to Parliament the TAP airlines recovery plan for approval. If it passes in Parliament, the airline company will receive a bailout but fire a lot of people and sell more than 20 airplanes. If Parliament rejects it, TAP airlines closes:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1335706872507224067

Government wants Parliament to vote on restructuring of TAP. If it fails, the company goes for liquidation

Of course, Mr Marques Mendes scoops in his commentary spot are, more often than not, not reality, however in this TAP dossier, the government is, indeed, in a delicate position. PSD was always very critical of the PS government decision to revert the 2015 privatization, predicting it would end badly for the company and the State. Now, if this vote really happens, the PSD position is yet to be known, but a vote against by them wouldn't be surprising as PSD leader Rui Rio has constantly trashed the government's TAP airlines strategy. Plus, it seems quite impossible to convince the leftwing to support this plan. However, the EU still has to approve the plan, and only then it will go to Parliament, if the story plays out.

Update: It seems it will indeed happen. A government source said this to ECO newspaper:

If you want an airline, you have to assume that it costs money, if you don't want it, liquidate it.

plus,

Now, everyone will be called to say what they want for TAP and will start to think better before speaking

IMO, this is pure madness by the government.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I flew with TAP this February for my first extra-European holiday (two weeks in the USA)... it would be very sad if it closed.
P.S. The bacalhau I ate at the Lisbon airport was yummy

Also, I would like to comment about Ventura's authoritarian NUT stances about party unity, but all that comes to my mind is a gigantic LMAO. He really wants to be hated, huh?

[Mike88]

I flew with TAP this February for my first extra-European holiday (two weeks in the USA)... it would be very sad if it closed.
P.S. The bacalhão I ate at the Lisbon airport was yummy

Also, I would like to comment about Ventura's authoritarian NUT stances about party unity, but all that comes to my mind is a gigantic LMAO. He really wants to be hated, huh?

TAP is a very good airline company, but it has had bigger and bigger financial losses, even well before the pandemic. The TAP issue has become a very political and right now, it's a toxic topic, just like Novo Banco. The 2015 privatization was very badly done, without transparency and with a buyer who seemed to not have enough capital. However, Costa's deal to retake 50% of the company made things worse as it increased the risks for the State, as the State would be forced to inject money in the company even if they had nothing to do with the management of the company as in the deal reached, the private share holders would have full control of the management.

The Court of Auditors ruled that the 2015 privatization was an utter mess, but that Costa's deal to retake 50% was even worse as it, like I wrote above, increased risks for the State. The private management made several investments that grew the company and created new routes for the airline, but the increased revenue was always not enough to cover the costs, and, therefore the company was becoming more and more indebted. With the pandemic, the private management said to the State "we don't have money even to pay wages", and the government was furious and demanded more decision power in the company but the private share holders fought back. This ultimately ended, in July this year, with one of the share holders leaving the company and seeling half of his shares to the State and the other half to a Portuguese bus mogul that also has shares in TAP. The government then injected 1.2 billion euros to save the company and nominated a new team to forge a recovery plan. The recovery plan was presented last week and it proposes massive layoffs, spending cuts and the sale of several airplanes. The Left is furious with the layoffs and the right is furious as it's another bailout the company needs. But, the decision to send the plan to a vote in Parliament is madness, IMO, if the government hadn't spend 1.2 billion already it would be explainable, but now it's just madness. All looks like revenge against the PSD for the Novo Banco vote and to put Rio in a bad position. We'll see how this unfolds.

P.S. Not a fan of bacalhau to be honest, bacalhau pastels yes, but normal bacalhau, no.

(Sorry for the long post)

About Ventura, not surprising. Like I said previously, CHEGA is a full blown mess internally and if Ventura cannot control his people, even as Ventura IS CHEGA, that tells you a lot about the possible future of that party. If Ventura, for some reason, leaves CHEGA, the party would join the graveyard of political parties in Portugal. You can also argue that by doing this, he also just wants publicity, like Trump said "There's no negative publicity, just publicity".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Did I really misspell bacalhau in an attempt to show that I can use ã and õ? Lol

Anyway, it is not very surprising that TAP is in such a mess with regards to privatization, the Italian company Alitalia has gone through a similar situation as well, being a hot topic here for years, until it has been fully re-nationalized this year (although I am not actually sure this will be the end of the story).
It really looks like the airline industry is one of the messiest.

Yeah, I would say that Ventura's move feels very Trumpian. Speaking of Ventura, what percentage of the vote in the coming year's presidential election do you think would be considered a "win" for him? Breaking 10%? Maybe just arriving in second place?

[Mike88]

Did I really misspell bacalhau in an attempt to show that I can use ã and õ? Lol

Anyway, it is not very surprising that TAP is in such a mess with regards to privatization, the Italian company Alitalia has gone through a similar situation as well, being a hot topic here for years, until it has been fully re-nationalized this year (although I am not actually sure this will be the end of the story).
It really looks like the airline industry is one of the messiest.

Yeah, I would say that Ventura's move feels very Trumpian. Speaking of Ventura, what percentage of the vote in the coming year's presidential election do you think would be considered a "win" for him? Breaking 10%? Maybe just arriving in second place?

Yeah, the airline industry is a mess, especially for those companies who were already near bankruptcy, like TAP, prior to the pandemic. And when you mix political strategies with a company worth billions of assets, don't be surprised something goes horribly wrong.

Anyway, Ventura is polling at around 9-10% in the average of polls. His aim is to be second and he already said that if he polls behind Ana Gomes, he will resign from the CHEGA leadership, but no believes this BS, to be honest. He also wants a 2nd round with Marcelo but that will not happen. Right now, I would say that he's behind Ana Gomes, which is polling at around 16%. But, it's still very early and this time around the debates will be very important, as normal campaigning is very limited. Turnout will also be crucial as it's expected to be very low, due to the foregone conclusion result and the pandemic itself.

P.S.: You may have confused with the Spanish Bacalao word.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: President Marcelo expected to announce his reelection bid this afternoon in a... bakery in Lisbon, because the original venue, a bookstore, is closed due to Covid restrictions.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1335978131820179456

Reelection bid. Marcelo wanted a bookstore but it will have to be in a pastry shop

It seems that this afternoon, finally, President Marcelo will announce his reelection bid. But, the awkward part starts here. The President and his team wanted to make the announcement in a bookstore and already had the time and venue for it, but due to Covid-19 restrictions, bookstores now close very early. His team is now saying he will make his announcement at a bakery called "Versailles" near the Presidential Palace. The announcement will be live streamed on the internet and no questions will be allowed.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: It's now official, President Marcelo runs for a second term.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1336015899325820930

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: "I always tried to think about the public and not the personal interest"

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, as expected, announced his intention of running for a 2nd term as President. He made this announcement in a bakery near the Presidential Palace, in Lisbon, where a special podium with a huge flag of Portugal behind it, was set up. In his speech, President Marcelo said he's running again because "we have a pandemic to face, a social/economic crisis to overcome and the opportunity to change Portugal for the better". He added that he will have a second term exactly the same as his first, and current, one, stressing that he's "the same person that ran in 2016, as a proud Portuguese, Universalist, Social Democrat, Catholic and Republican. He ended by asking the Portuguese their vote and saying he now awaits the verdict of the people, concluding that any decision made will be good for the country.

With President Marcelo's bid now official, there are 8 candidates with party support and many other smaller independent candidacies, so far 5 candidates. The latter ones are unlikely, IMO, to be on the ballot and it's expected that the ballot for the 24 January election will have the 8 candidates with party support.

President Marcelo's campaign has also to hurry up to collect the more than 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot. The PSD party machine seems, according to some reports, ready to make a last minute sprint to collect thousands of signatures in the next 3 weeks. The deadline is 24 December.