🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

Bolieiro should try to convince the 2 Chega MPs to rebel against Ventura tbh

[Mike88]

Bolieiro should try to convince the 2 Chega MPs to rebel against Ventura tbh

I wouldn't be surprised by that. It's plausible due to the recent tensions within CHEGA-Azores.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Centre-right government in the Azores failing because Ventura (going against the will of CHEGA-Azores) needed to own Rui Rio? Lmao

How do you say "flip-flopper" in Portuguese?

[CumbrianLefty]

Populist right already imploding, you love to see it

[Mike88]

Centre-right government in the Azores failing because Ventura (going against the will of CHEGA-Azores) needed to own Rui Rio? Lmao

How do you say "flip-flopper" in Portuguese?

There's many ways: "troca tintas", "trapalhão", "aldrabão". But the real translation of "flip-flopper" is "troca tintas".

If the Azores doesn't have a PSD minority, it's completely Ventura's fault. Rio, like I predicted in previous post, rolled his eyes on everything Ventura said. Now, Ventura announced that negotiations are suspended between the PSD and CHEGA, almost ordering CHEGA-Azores to do what he wants, and it seems CHEGA-Azores is saying yes, but the mood isn't good, it seems.

If the PSD-CDS-PPM minority fails, the PS will govern but early elections, next year, would be almost certain.

Populist right already imploding, you love to see it

I don't know if they will implode, their supporters are cult like, like Trump, but they will lose a power argument that they always had: defeat the PS at any cost. Now, anytime they call out the PSD, the PSD can also said where were you in the Azores?

[Mike88]

The CHEGA mess in the Azores in just... wow.

The media is reporting a series of stories that show a deep divide within the party. Público newspaper is reporting that Ventura decided to struck down the AD coalition without informing the regional party and its members of the regional parliament. This is infuriating many CHEGA-Azores leaders as, according to the newspaper, negotiations with the PSD were on track to be a success:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1324601454187978752

Ventura said no to AD-Açores, but didn't inform CHEGA MPs in the region

Diário de Notícias newspaper is also reporting that at least one CHEGA MP is so pissed off by Ventura that he's willing to support the AD (PSD-CDS-PPM) without the consent of Ventura:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1324477224687300608

Azores. PSD has 24 hours to get support from IL and PAN. CHEGA divided

According to the newspaper, Carlos Furtado, leader of CHEGA-Azores and one of the elected MPs, is against Ventura's medling in the negotiations and Ventura has already warned him that if doesn't obey his order he could be expelled from the party. The PSD seems to be banking on this divide withing CHEGA and is calculating that if the CHEGA MP becomes an independent MP, they have a majority with the votes of PAN and IL.

[Mike88]

JUST IN: Público newspaper is reporting that PSD and CHEGA reached an agreement after CHEGA dropped several of their demands:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1324685242200920064

Azores: CHEGA and PSD reach a deal in the Azores: they will reduce regional deputies and social support

Público newspaper is reporting that the regional PSD and CHEGA have reach a deal for a support of CHEGA in the AD proposed government. According to the newspaper, CHEGA dropped all of their more controversial proposals, life prison sentences and chemical castration and agreed with the PSD the reduction of the size of the regional parties and a cut in social supports in the Azores. More details are expected during the day.

[Mike88]

Other news that dominated the week:

The DA office is investigating the minister of the economy, Pedro Siza Vieira, and the energy secretary, João Galamba, for alleged corrupt actions in the hydrogen deal:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1324269354381266944

Minister Pedro Siza Vieira and Secretary of State João Galamba investigated for corruption

The DA office has confirmed the report, by Sábado magazine, that the minister of the economy, Pedro Siza Vieira, and energy secretary, João Galamba, are being investigated due to alleged acts of corruption surrounding the hydrogen national plan. Reports say the DA office is investigating suspected favors to big companies at the expense of taxpayers money. The minister and the secretary already reacted with the investigation saying they are shocked by it, with the energy secretary João Galamba considering legal actions against those who accuse him of illegal and corrupt actions. PM Costa, in an interview to Antena 1 radio, already defended his cabinet members saying both are not suspect.

Also, the State of Emergency is being debated, this afternoon, in Parliament. President Marcelo call a state of emergency, yesterday, to start next Monday until 23 November. Parliament will now vote the proposal and it will pass easily as it has the support of PS and PSD (81% of seats in the chamber). BE will abstain.

https://twitter.com/dinheiro_vivo/status/1324752543608528896

Parliament debates new state of emergency. Follow live

[Mike88]

New State of Emergency approved by Parliament:

In favour (PS, PSD, CDS)
Against (CDU, IL, JKM)
Abstain (BE, PAN, CHEGA)

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.3% PS (-0.5)
29.7% PSD (+0.7)
  8.3% BE (+0.2)
  5.8% CDU (+0.3)
  5.0% CHEGA (+0.2)
  2.7% CDS (-0.6) 
  2.2% PAN (+0.2)
  1.0% IL (-0.3)
  7.0% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Other questions polled:

Q1: Do you agree with mandatory masks on the streets?

48% Yes
45% No
  7% Undecided

Q2: Would you vote in a possible referendum on euthanasia?

55% No
25% Yes
20% Undecided

Q3: Should the 2021 budget be approved by Parliament?

58.5% Yes
21.0% No
20.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 November 2020. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?

[Mike88]

Azores government formation: Critical day today as PS and PSD are meeting with the representative of the Republic in the Azores in order to nominate a candidate for President of the government.

PS and PSD are meeting today with the representative of the republic in the Azores in order for him to nominate a candidate for the Presidency of the regional government. PSD leader José Manuel Bolieiro has the support of all rightwing parties and could probably be nominated even today. The smaller parties were received, yesterday, by the representative and only BE said they would support a PS government and all others said they were open to support the PSD-CDS-PPM coalition.

But, the backlash of this agreement is creating tensions between the national PS and PSD:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1324746373040758784

Azores. Rio "sold his dignity" on the constitutional review - accuses the PS

The PS is accusing the PSD and Rio of "selling their soul and dignity" in order to have the support of CHEGA and dump the PS in the Azores. In a press conference, the deputy secretary-general of the PS, José Luís Carneiro, asked what values Rio dropped to get CHEGA's support and the Rio and the PSD owe the people an explanation for this agreement.

Rio responded, on social media, to the PS accusations and basically called the PS a bunch of liars:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1324818370869473289

Among blunders or lies I counted 19 (some repeated), which gives 3.1 per minute of intervention.
Three broken records: that of blunders per minute; that of the greatest political impudence after GERINGONÇA / 2015; and that of “family-o-island” despair.
Worse yet, the PS knows it is lying.

Rio accuses the PS of complete desperation for being on the verge of losing the government of the Azores and says they are lying and spinning. He accused the PS of acting like they own the islands and that the PS is forgeting what they did in 2015 with the Geringonça agreement.

Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?

Yes, and it was never reached in the 3 referendums since 1974.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PS will discuss today the elections with the likeliest outcome being the PS not supporting anyone.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1324860466204700676

PS. Costa's carte blanche to vote Marcelo releases support for Ana Gomes

The PS leadership will met today to discuss the 2021 January Presidential elections. This meeting has been delayed several times as the PS is divided about what to do regarding the elections. However, it's expected that in the meeting Costa will give freedom of vote to all PS members and voters, like what happened in 2016. Some PS MPs and members have expressed support for several candidates including Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Ana Gomes or João Ferreira.

The election date is still to be announced but the unanimous date is January 24th 2021.

[crals]

The left is too outraged over Chega's self-cucking tbh. They won't even be in government, their Azorean MPs aren't controversial like Ventura, the ridiculous criminal proposals are off the table, reducing the parliament's size would require PS support anyway and cutting GMI in half is also unlikely to actually happen. There's really nothing too extreme going on.

[Mike88]

The left is too outraged over Chega's self-cucking tbh. They won't even be in government, their Azorean MPs aren't controversial like Ventura, the ridiculous criminal proposals are off the table, reducing the parliament's size would require PS support anyway and cutting GMI in half is also unlikely to actually happen. There's really nothing too extreme going on.

Exactly. The PSD literally used the PS playbook of 2015: make meaningless and vague concessions that you probably don't intend to follow, in order to gain the support of whom you need.

[Mike88]

Azores government formation: Representative of the Republic asks PSD leader José Manuel Bolieiro to form a government.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1325158827789082624

Pedro Catarino appointed José Manuel Bolieiro to form a government in the Azores

It's now official. The Representative of the Republic in the Azores, Pedro Catarino, after hearing all parties has decided to appoint José Manuel Bolieiro as President of the Government and asked him to form a government.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?

Yes, and it was never reached in the 3 referendums since 1974.

I know that two of them were about abortion, what was the third one about?



Anyways, congratulations to José Manuel Bolieiro for being the new President of the Azores. And yet again lol at Chega. An actual source of hilarity tbh.

[Mike88]

Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?

Yes, and it was never reached in the 3 referendums since 1974.

I know that two of them were about abortion, what was the third one about?



Anyways, congratulations to José Manuel Bolieiro for being the new President of the Azores. And yet again lol at Chega. An actual source of hilarity tbh.

It was the November 1998 referendum on Regionalization. The referendum was a failure as 64% voted against the implementation of regional governments in mainland Portugal and also voted against the map proposed by the then Guterres government. Only 48% of voters turned out to vote, although it was the highest share for a referendum but bellow the 50% quorum. A curiosity on the referendum: the PSD leader at that time was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and he led the campaign against regionalization.

The flip-flops of CHEGA, well, are always sad and funny at the same time. There's a curious thing with José Manuel Bolieiro's nomination as President: all major government leaders in Portugal were mayors in the past: Costa was mayor of Lisbon (2007-2015); Bolieiro was mayor of Ponta Delgada (2012-2020); Albuquerque, Madeira President, was mayor of Funchal (1994-2013).

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential Elections: Costa announces, as expected, that the PS will not support any candidate:

The PS leadership decided to not support, like in 2016, no candidate in the 2021 January Presidential elections. In the meeting there was a discussion on what the party should have done, or do, about the elections and it was clear the divide between the moderates and the more leftwing blocs within the party. The old guard like, foreign minister Santos Silva, Vieira da Silva and Edite Estrela announced their support for Marcelo, while the more younger generation, led by Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos, announced their support for Ana Gomes.

After the meeting, Costa spoke to reporters and talked also about the Azores government resolution:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1325156997902131200

Azores: Costa accuses PSD of passing “red line” when making deal with CHEGA to the Azores

Costa accused Rio of forging a deal with the "racist and xenophobic" CHEGA party, according to him, and that Mr Rio owes an explanation the people. A similar charge was made the PS yesterday and Costa pressed once again. Rio responded, on twitter, accusing the PS of lying over and over:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1325179249649733632

The truth: Merkel refused Afd in regional governments, just like Chega will not go to the Government of the Azores.
The Spanish PP has parliamentary understandings with Vox in three autonomous regions: Madrid, Andalusia and Murcia.

The PS continues to lie. Everything is going wrong for them.

Also, with the Azores elections over, the title will add the next big election: the January 24 Presidential elections.

[Mike88]

Azores government formation: Vasco Cordeiro, PS leader, calls Bolieiro nomination "abusive" and says that there was too much Lisbon and less Azores in the talks.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1325471893965565952

Vasco Cordeiro complains about "too much Lisbon less and Azores"

Vasco Cordeiro, PS-Azores leader and still President of the Azores, reacted, this morning, to the appointment of PSD leader José Manuel Bolieiro as President. He said the talks between PSD and CHEGA had "too much Lisbon and less Azores", meaning the negotiations had a more national intention a than regional one and also criticized the Representative of the Republic for appointing José Manuel Bolieiro, calling the action "abusive" and that it's a clear trample of the powers of the regional assembly.

I know it's still very early, but it seems the PS is following the PSD playbook after the 2015 elections. We all know how that ended for the PSD...

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Update in the number of candidates.

Some additional Independent candidates have announced their intention of running for the January 2021 elections and are already collecting signatures. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to announce his candidacy for another term during the present month of November. So far, 12 candidates have stated their intention to run:

- Ana Gomes, former PS MEP
- André Ventura, CHEGA leader
- Bruno Fialho, PDR leader
- Carla Bastos, PS member
- Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira, PPM leader
- João Ferreira, CDU MEP
- Marisa Matias, BE MEP
- Orlando Cruz, former CDS member
- Paulo Alves, former JPP candidate in Felgueiras city
- Patinha Antão, Independent
- Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, IL candidate
- Vitorino Silva "Tino de Rans", RIR leader

Some of the candidacies, especially the smaller ones, may not enter the ballot due to lack of signatures like it has happened in the past.

[Mike88]

The fallout of the PSD-CHEGA agreement in the Azores continues:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1326202222980567041

Far-right: Rio under fire after the legislature agreement with Chega in the Azores

The PSD-CHEGA parliamentary agreement in the Azores is very much still dominating the headlines, alongside the Covid-19 pandemic. Many pundits are saying this could be bad for the PSD as others say this is a rehearsal of what could happen in the national parliament, who knows, in the next general elections. PM António Costa is criticizing Rio for allowing a deal with CHEGA accusing the PSD of "selling their values" for power. Rio continues to say the PS is desperate and the deal is only for the between the PSD and CHEGA Azores.

However, the deal between PSD and CHEGA was published by Público newspaper:
https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1326066105543241733

Azores: Chega's support to the Azores government is to last the entire legislature

The deal between the PSD and CHEGA implies that CHEGA has to support the PSD in every budget and struck down motions of no confidence against the PSD. The newspaper says the talks between PSD and CHEGA were very tense but that at the end, CHEGA accepted the PSD terms. The newspaper also says the CHEGA confirms that the PSD could propose, during this parliament, amendments to the Constitution like reducing the number of MPs and reform of the Justice system. This last item is what is creating many criticisms towards Rio, although, the PSD has already, in the past, defended both proposals.

The issue is already entering in the campaign for the Presidential elections with BE candidate, Marisa Matias, asking where is Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on all of this and saying that if he accepted the terms of the agreement, then he's not protecting the Constitution.

Vital Moreira, former PS MEP and a highly regarded Constitutionalist, says, in his blog, the PSD agreement with the parties on his right is very similar with what the PS did in 2015, adding that the PSD didn't wast time or scruples, like the PS, to forge agreements with the right-wing parties. He adds that the right in Portugal continues to show a high capacity to adapt and unite to gain power, while the left continues to have struggles in forging agreements which condemns the PS to minorities governments over and over again.

[Mike88]

Local by-election to be held on December 13th in Ervededo parish, Chaves, Vila Real district.

A local by-election was called in the parish of Ervededo, Chaves municipality, Vila Real district. The parish has 901 registered voters, although the parish only has 646 residents. The election was called after PSD and PS elected officials resigned and no reason was given for their resignation. Only 2 lists were presented for the elections:

PS - Socialist Party
PSD - Social Democratic Party

The parish has a history of voting in the PSD, but in recent years the margins between the PSD and PS have tightened a lot: in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won by a 49% to 47% over the PS, and in the 2019 general election, the PSD won by just a 4% margin, 41% to 37%. It could be close and it could also be a pick up for the PS. We'll see.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The parish has a history of voting in the PSD, but in recent years the margins between the PSD and PS have tightened a lot: in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won by a 49% to 47% over the PS, and in the 2019 general election, the PSD won by just a 4% margin, 41% to 37%. It could be close and it could also be a pick up for the PS. We'll see.

#TRENDS

Although somehow I doubt that this is an upscale suburb lol.
I see that Chaves is at the border, does the Ervededo parish directly border Spain?

[Mike88]

The parish has a history of voting in the PSD, but in recent years the margins between the PSD and PS have tightened a lot: in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won by a 49% to 47% over the PS, and in the 2019 general election, the PSD won by just a 4% margin, 41% to 37%. It could be close and it could also be a pick up for the PS. We'll see.

#TRENDS

Although somehow I doubt that this is an upscale suburb lol.
I see that Chaves is at the border, does the Ervededo parish directly border Spain?

Chaves having suburbs is already very doubtful . Yes, the parish directly borders with Spain.