🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Lord Halifax]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
  8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
  6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?

[Farmlands]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
 8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
 6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
 2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
 1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?

Pretty much. Firstly, Marcelo is a lot more warm and personable than our previous president, which alone should net him some votes. Also, he has used his veto power extremely competently, in my opinion, only voting down what were really bad measures, like a self-serving Party financing bill.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
 8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
 6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
 2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
 1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?

Pretty much. Firstly, Marcelo is a lot more warm and personable than our previous president, which alone should net him some votes. Also, he has used his veto power extremely competently, in my opinion, only voting down what were really bad measures, like a self-serving Party financing bill.

Not even close to being competitive. Presidential reelection elections are rarely competitive, the last one was in 1980, and even then Ramalho Eanes won by a 56% to 40% margin. And to be completely true, the last competitive presidential election in Portugal was the 1996 election when Sampaio beat Cavaco Silva by a 54% to 46% margin. Since then, they all can be considered "landslides".

Marcelo is going to be reelected to a 2nd term, the question is all about the margins: will it a strong mandate, like Soares 1991, or a weak one like Sampaio 2001 and Cavaco 2011, or something in between?.

[Mike88]

Euthanasia referendum is rejected by Parliament and the PSD mandatory masks bill was approved:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1319627171586101254

Referendum on  euthanasia "failed" in parliament

As expected, Parliament rejected the proposal to hold a referendum on the topic of euthanasia. All of the left parties voted against the proposal as did 9 PSD MPs, including PSD leader Rui Rio. The rest of the PSD caucus voted in favour alongside CDS and IL. CHEGA MP André Ventura failed to be present in the vote.

Parliament also passed a mandatory mask wearing bill proposed by the PSD. The PSD bill forces the use of masks on the streets and fines people who don't follow the rule between 100 and 500 euros. The bill passed with the votes of PSD, PS and CDS. IL voted against and BE, CDU and PAN abstained. The mandatory mask wearing will be in place for the next 70 days.

[Mike88]

2021 Budget: PCP announces their abstention in the budget general vote but doesn't say what will do in the final vote.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1319747927229616128

OE 2021. PCP does not guarantee that it will keep their abstention in the final vote

The Communist Party announced it will abstain in the general budget vote next week, which almost makes it certain that Costa's 2021 budget will pass in the first vote. The PCP says it achieved one of their goals by making the increase in pensions to occur in January and not in August like the government planned. However, the party didn't say if they will give their "blessing" in the final vote, wanting to see the final text in the end of November.

Overall, the budget vote current standings are the following:

108 In favour (PS)
  86 Against (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL)
  12 Abstain (CDU)
  24 Undecided (BE, PAN, Ind. JKM, Ind. CR)

[Mike88]

The Azores regional elections are tomorrow.

This is the official website where results will be published tomorrow night: https://vpgr.azores.gov.pt/Sites/ALR2020/Default

There are 228,999 registered voters in 259 precincts across the 9 islands of the Azores.

[Mike88]

2021 Budget: Is BE preparing to announce a vote against?

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1319950608363900930

BE prepares vote against the 2021 budget

The announcement of BE's vote intention regarding the 2021 budget is expected tomorrow, during election day in Azores. But, this weekend's media is reporting the party is preparing to vote against the budget draft as they government only accepted 4 out of 35 policy proposals made by the party. The party revealed this in a statement to the press, this afternoon, adding that some government promises in the party weren't kept also.

If BE decides to vote against, it will 108 in favour and 105 against, with PAN being the "kingmaker", but it's very likely PAN to abstain.

[Mike88]

Voting is already underway across the Azores.

Polls opened at 8AM (9AM in Lisbon) and will close at 7PM (8PM in Lisbon). An exit poll from RTP-Azores will be revealed when polls close.

I believe turnout updates will be given during the day.

[Mike88]

A polling station in Ponta Delgada (Fajã de Baixo parish):

https://twitter.com/antena1rtp/status/1320340485601435648

The first elections in a pandemic. The Azores choose a new president.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 11:00AM (12:00PM in Lisbon) is, so far, a bit up compared with 2016:

2020: 9.16% (+1.69)
2016: 7.47%
2012: 10.34%

[Mike88]

Next turnout update expected during the next hour, or so. Also, the 11AM turnout figures don't include Ponta Delgada, 64,031 registered voters, which means the 11AM turnout numbers are bigger than 9.2%.

Turnout by municipality: https://vpgr.azores.gov.pt/Sites/ALR2020/Documentos/AfluenciaUrnas.pdf

[Mike88]

Turnout at 16:00PM (17:00PM in Lisbon)

2020: 32.68% (+3.39%)
2016: 29.29%
2012: 34.37%

74,512 voters have already cast a ballot, 80.0% of the overall 2016 numbers. It's all but certain that the final turnout rate will be higher than in 2016 (40.85%)

In terms of municipalities, Corvo has the highest rate of ballots cast so far, 68.2%, and Ponta Delgada the lowest, 25.7%.

[Mike88]

Live TV feed of RTP-Azores:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpacores

(Special election night coverage starts in about 20 minutes)

Also, RTP 3 (RTP News) TV link:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3

[Mike88]

Live TV feed of RTP-Azores:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpacores

(Special election night coverage starts in about 20 minutes)

Adding to this, the official results page where election returns will start to be published when polls close:

https://vpgr.azores.gov.pt/Sites/ALR2020/Default

Will post other results links when available.

[Mike88]

At the same time:

2021 budget: PAN announces their abstention in the general budget vote this week.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1320442531499413504

PAN will abstain. Budget should pass in the specialty

PAN announced just a few moments ago that the party will abstain in the budget general vote this week. The announcement was made by the party's spokeswoman, Inês Sousa Real, said that there were advances in the negotiations between them and the government and that, although they cannot vote in favour, they cannot vote against so, they will abstain. Like the PCP, the party also says that their final vote is still up in the air, saying all is dependent on the budget parliamentary discussions during November.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll:

42-48% Turnout

Average of 45%. In 2016, only 40.85% cast a ballot. Polls close in less than half an hour.

[Mike88]

Important note on the RTP exit poll:

https://twitter.com/fumacapt/status/1320425391576608768

There will only one exit poll for today's Regionals. The Center for Studies and Opinion Polls at the Universidade Católica Portuguesa will be on the islands of São Miguel and Terceira. We will not have predictions for the other seven islands.

5 minutes until polls close.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

Seat projection: (29 needed for a majority)

26-30 PS
19-22 PSD
1-3 CDS
1-3 CHEGA
1-2 BE
1 PAN
1 PPM
0-2 CDU
0-1 IL

[crals]

Mixed feelings. PS losing the absolute majority after more than 2 decades of unchecked power would be great, but the possibility of a right-wing government with Chega is scary.

[Mike88]

Mixed feelings. PS losing the absolute majority after more than 2 decades of unchecked power would be great, but the possibility of a right-wing government with Chega is scary.

PSD led majority is very unlikely, IMO, the PS will likely persue a deal with CDS like in César's 1st term in the 90's. But, that may not go down well in the national CDS.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

This sounds like an underperformance for the Partido Socialista if the exit poll is correct, right?

(Don't know why but I wanted to spell out the full name)

Also, CHEGA third would be... bad.

[Mike88]

PS says that they've won again and will now wait for the final results to see how to react. They still say a majority is possible, but the face of the PS spokesperson was very teeling.

PSD says Azores has voted for change and regarding a possible agreement with the rightwing parties they have no comment and will also wait for the results.

CDS is open for talks but says it will be a long night.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

This sounds like an underperformance for the Partido Socialista if the exit poll is correct, right?

(Don't know why but I wanted to spell out the full name)

Also, CHEGA third would be... bad.

Yep, the PS underperformed compared with the only poll. PSD is clearly overperforming as is CHEGA. Like what crals said, a PSD+CDS+CHEGA+PPM+IL agreement is, on paper, possible but it's unlikely and this only happens in the highest share for each party.

BE is also announcing, as I write, their vote in the 2021 budget.

[Mike88]

BE is also announcing, as I write, their vote in the 2021 budget.

Like the media was reporting yesterday, BE will vote agaisnt the 2021 budget. BE leader, Catarina Martins, just announced in a live statement.