🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

New Covid measures: Mandatory Covid app destined to fail, but mandatory masks will probably pass.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1316815721976995840

Covid-19: PSD saves Government in street masks, but both leave app in double boiler

The controversy about the obligation of everyone that has an iphone or android to download the government's covid tracing app continues and it's very likely to fail. The PSD said it will support mandatory masks on the street, but didn't propose or endorse the mandatory app. Even in the PS, many say the meassure is illegal and President Marcelo says that if he receives the law, he will sent it to the Constitutional Court. The rest of smaller parties are also totally against the mandatory app.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on the 2021 Presidential elections:

Vote share %:

61.0% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-8.6)
11.0% André Ventura (+3.8 )
10.0% Ana Gomes (+3.1)
  8.5% Marisa Matias (+1.6)
  5.5% João Ferreira (+0.7)
  1.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (new)
  3.0% Others (-1.6)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 October 2020. Polled 1,072 voters. MoE of 2.99%.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: 3,541 voters registered to cast an early ballot, just 1.6% of all registered voters.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1317407733973438465

Over 3,500 people registered for early voting.

3,541 voters have signed to cast an early ballot for the Azores regional elections. Ballots will cast tomorrow, October 18, in polling stations across the country and islands. According to the data sent by the Azores government, 1,823 voters in the Azores islands asked to cast an early ballot, 1,714 voters in mainland Portugal asked to cast a ballot, and just 4 in Madeira asked the same. The island with the highest share of early voting applications is Corvo with 29 voters registering, almost 9% of all registered voters in the island. The biggest island, S. Miguel, only had 904 voters registering, just 0.70% of all voters in that island.

[Mike88]

Tensions in the PSD: Many MPs and party supporters are angry at some Rui Rio's decisions lately:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1317197756272816133

PSD MPs reject mandatory app against Rio decision

The mandatory app, the budget and the possible support for a euthanasia referendum is infuriating many PSD members as they totally disagree with Rui Rio's decisions. Regarding the mandatory covid app, Rio said that idea didn't had legs to go on but didn't outright rejected, while his caucus said "hell no" to the idea. Then there's the budget. The PSD will announce next week how they will vote regarding the budget. Although it's very likely the party will vote against, the late decision is not going well with many party members. And finally, euthanasia. The party will decide, also next week, how they will vote regarding a possible referendum about the topic, a matter to be discussed in Parliament. The issue is that in the party's congress, earlier this year, a motion saying the party must support a referendum was approved and now Rio could face an intern party "punishment" for not following what the congress voted.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is Rui Rio purposefully trying to lose voters to CHEGA? Lmao
Oh well. I guess I'll have the answer to this when the party decides its position on assisted suicide.



In unrelated terms, the exit polls on the Wikipedia page of the last election suggest that the age gap is reversed in Portugal, is that reliable? And are there data on party preference by religious attendance?

[Mike88]

Is Rui Rio purposefully trying to lose voters to CHEGA? Lmao
Oh well. I guess I'll have the answer to this when the party decides its position on assisted suicide.



In unrelated terms, the exit polls on the Wikipedia page of the last election suggest that the age gap is reversed in Portugal, is that reliable? And are there data on party preference by religious attendance?

I don't know, honestly. Rio is known for making out of the box decisions that defy, a bit, logic and that's why almost half of the PSD hates his guts. Nonetheless, if you look at polls, the party is basically as it was a year ago, 27%, a bit lower or a bit higher but basically the same. Now, in a period where the media is now openly saying Costa has lost it, the PSD isn't surging and doesn't seem able to lay out a clear strategy, it seems all back and forward. CHEGA is benefiting a bit, of course, but I would argue that the main victim of CHEGA is still CDS. The problem of the PSD is that they haven't convinced those 10% of swing voters that they are a real alternative. Basically all of them are solidly in the PS camp, currently.

About the age gap, the youth electorate has recently been more aligned with the PSD, while the PS has fared very well with older voters. This "age gap" solidified after the bailout, with older voters angry at the PSD for pension cuts and becoming more supportive of the PS, and young voters, perhaps more aligned with liberal ideas, more supportive of the PSD. PAN and BE also have strong support in the youth electorate, because of environmental and job issues. Overall, the electorate of the 2 main parties can be summed up like this:

PS - Less educated, older, more female and middle to lower class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in urban/suburban areas, but also in some rural areas.

PSD - Highly educated, younger/middle age, more male, middle to upper class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in rural and small medium size cities, not very strong in big urban areas.

About religion attendance data, I don't know any. Would have to go to the ERC website and see the crosstabs of party support by religious attendance, if there's any. But, logic would say that PSD and CDS voters would have strong support, PS would have still a very considerable support also. BE, CDU and PAN less.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

About the age gap, the youth electorate has recently been more aligned with the PSD, while the PS has fared very well with older voters. This "age gap" solidified after the bailout, with older voters angry at the PSD for pension cuts and becoming more supportive of the PS, and young voters, perhaps more aligned with liberal ideas, more supportive of the PSD. PAN and BE also have strong support in the youth electorate, because of environmental and job issues. Overall, the electorate of the 2 main parties can be summed up like this:

PS - Less educated, older, more female and middle to lower class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in urban/suburban areas, but also in some rural areas.

PSD - Highly educated, younger/middle age, more male, middle to upper class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in rural and small medium size cities, not very strong in big urban areas.

About religion attendance data, I don't know any. Would have to go to the ERC website and see the crosstabs of party support by religious attendance, if there's any. But, logic would say that PSD and CDS voters would have strong support, PS would have still a very considerable support also. BE, CDU and PAN less.

I see. The PS electorate screams #populist Old Left a ton, which I certainly like.

I think your logic on religious attendance makes sense, but I would really wish to see data.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

why does a north-south divide exist in Portugal, as seen most evidently in election results in relatively closer to 50-50 elections?

[Mike88]

I see. The PS electorate screams #populist Old Left a ton, which I certainly like.

I think your logic on religious attendance makes sense, but I would really wish to see data.

Found a study, from 2008, I know it's a bit old, that shows the relation between religion and party support: (data in page 240)

Religious: 60.7%
Non religious: 39.3%

Religious: 80.4% CDS; 78.2% PSD; 62.7% PS; 24.1% BE; 20.8% PCP
Non religious: 79.2% PCP; 75.9% BE; 37.3% PS; 21.8% PSD; 19.6% CDS

Keep in mind, also, that in the 2011 census, just 19% of the population said it attends religious events regularly.

[Mike88]

why does a north-south divide exist in Portugal, as seen most evidently in election results in relatively closer to 50-50 elections?

All is related to the 1974 revolution and the events that followed. The country was very divided between North and South as many people, particularly small land owners in the North/Center feared the mass expropriations of lands that were happening in the Alentejo region. Many people revolted against the left, especially the Communists, in the North and Center and these two regions became more supportive of PSD, and for a short period, CDS. PS also has a big support in these regions, as the PS was, back in the 70's, a strong opponent of the PCP. The south became very strong for the PCP until the late 80's with the colapse of the USSR, the PS started to make inroads in these regions, and ultimately became the largest party in the south. While in the North and Center, rural areas are more aligned to the right and urban ones to left, in the South, especially Alentejo, rural areas are overwhelmingly left, while more urban areas are more align with right.

Almost 50 years later, the voting patterns remain quite solid.

[Mike88]

Azores regional election campaign: TV broadcasts.

PS - Socialist Party

PSD - Social Democratic Party

CDS - CDS-People's Party

BE - Left Bloc

PAN - People-Animals-Nature

PPM - People's Monarchist Party

CH - CHEGA

Didn't find TV broadcasts from CDU and IL. Also, CHEGA's TV broadcast... yikes!!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Didn't find TV broadcasts from CDU and IL. Also, CHEGA's TV broadcast... yikes!!

Oh well. I watched it and yeah, I don't need to actually know Portuguese to agree that that was... yikes!

Also, did he really say "povo" and "terra" (which from my scarce knowledge of Portuguese should be people and land) like ten times each? Lol

[Mike88]

Didn't find TV broadcasts from CDU and IL. Also, CHEGA's TV broadcast... yikes!!

Oh well. I watched it and yeah, I don't need to actually know Portuguese to agree that that was... yikes!

Also, did he really say "povo" and "terra" (which from my scarce knowledge of Portuguese should be people and land) like ten times each? Lol

It seems like it. Yes, "povo" means people and "terra" means land. CHEGA's TV broadcast seems so amateur compared with the other parties, even PPM's broadcast, which is a much smaller party than CHEGA, is much better and professional.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

37.5% PS (+0.1)
24.8% PSD (+0.5)
11.0% BE (+1.1)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.3)
  4.3% CDU (-0.8 )
  4.1% CDS (-0.2)  
  4.1% PAN (nc)
  2.4% IL (+0.3)
  0.4% Livre (nc)
  0.4% Others (-0.6)
  3.3% Blank/Invalid (-0.8 )

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 618 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

António Costa drops the controversial mandatory Covid app proposal, and mandatory masks, for now.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1318300730068008961

Coronavirus: Government suspends proposal on mandatory use of the StayAway Covid app and masks

In an interview to TVI, PM António Costa said he dropped the proposals of mandatory masks on the street and the mandatory Covid app and that he informed the Speaker of Parliament that a debate and vote on these matters will not be held anymore. Costa said that he tough the app would be more consensual than mandatory masks, which surprised him, and that mandatory masks will now be discussed separately from the app as it has more consensus. He also added that confinements and a declaration of a State of Emergency, like what happened in March/April, are not on the table.

Costa also talked about the 2021 budget tensions and said the country cannot have a political crisis, adding that he will not turn his back from the country in this moment of crisis and that he would do everything in his power to prevent a crisis. The tone is different compared to the September Expresso interview where Costa said that if the budget fails, the government ends. He concluded saying that budget will only fail if the leftwing aligns with the right to struck down the budget and asked the BE and PCP if they really want to align themselves with the right.

[Mike88]

PSD will give freedom of vote to MPs in the Euthanasia referendum debate this week. Party also refuses all of CHEGA's Constitutional reforms:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1318306089323106316

PSD gives MPs freedom of vote in referendum on euthanasia

The PSD leadership decided to give freedom of vote to MPs in Friday's vote regarding a possible referendum about euthanasia legalization. This was Rui Rio's preferred position. Nonetheless, the topic is very divisive in the PSD. Polls shows the party is basically 50-50 on the issue and MPs have also different positions. However, a motion passed in the PSD last congress, aligns the party with a vote in favour of a referendum. A few PSD members have already filed complaints against Rio to force him to follow the congress vote. The party's tribunal already filed all the complaints against Rio, but ruled that any decision has to follow the Congress votes, although it highlights that not all congress motions should, or could, be followed by the party as whole. This could create some tensions in the party caucus meeting next Thursday.

The Social Democrats also announced they will reject all of CHEGA's Constitutional reforms. CHEGA is already accusing the PSD of being "cowards" and that Rio himself has supported some of the policies they propose.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: Electoral manifestos of the smaller parties.

PS and PSD manifestos have already been posted, and now here's the main proposals of the other smaller parties running in the Azores regional election next Sunday, October 25:

CDS-People's Party:

- Retirement age to be anticipated by 3 years in the Azores;
- Creation of the figure of the Family Nurse;
- Expand the exemption of boat tax until the 1st semester of 2021;
- Greater bet on tourism with better transports;

Left Bloc (BE):

- More investment in social services;
- Creation of subsidies to attract workers in the Azores;
- Creation of a big international center for sea studies and climate change;
- More efforts to fight domestic violence and promote gender equality;
- Creation of public housing exchange for affordable housing;

Democratic Unitarian Coalition (CDU):

- Increase of wage of fishermen;
- More regional production and focus on internal tourism;
- Increase in wages and more investment for social services, health, education;

People's Monarchist Party (PPM):

- Policies to make the price of milk "fairer";
- Defending health services close to populations in all islands;
- Defending the environment and the sea;

People-Animals-Nature (PAN):

- More autonomy for the Azores in the areas of the sea, food sovereignty, energy and defense;
- Creation of a regional police;
- Creation of a Regional Secretariat for the Environment and Climate Change and a Regional Directorate for Animal Protection and Welfare;
- VAT exemption for regional products;

CHEGA (CH):

- Making Azores self-sustainable in farming production;
- Reduction of regional MPs and the size of the regional government;
- Creation of the figures of the Family Nurse and Family Psychologist;
- Create a plan to "restructure the region" in order to relaunch the economy and invest in education;

Liberal Initiative (IL):

- Privatization of RTP-Azores;
- Reduction of income taxes and corporate taxes;
- Extinction of the office of Representative of the Republic;

Alliance (A):

- Construction of university residences for Azorean students in Lisbon, Porto and Coimbra;
- Creation of "sport cities" in the islands of S. Miguel and Terceira;
- More diversity in farming and less pesticides;
- Support for health workers and a creation of an anticipated pension fund for teachers;

PCTP-MRPP:

- Extinction of the office of Representative of the Republic;
- A Hospital in each island of the region;
- Creation of the "Island Political Council" elected by the electorate;

Earth Party (MPT):

- Local residences for students and decrease of tuition fees in university;
- Creation of a transparency office to fight corruption;
- Partial privatization of SATA airlines;
- Creation of the figure of the "elderly defender";

[crals]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

[Mike88]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

The fact that CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Azores for several days is another proof that something isn't going well for them is these elections. Adding to this, questions from the media on what will happen if they get humiliated next Sunday. We'll see.

Actually I think BE will poll third, CDS maybe fourth with PAN at a strong fifth. CDU may be kicked out of the regional parliament.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.

[Mike88]

Finally, a poll on the Azores elections.

UCP-CESOP poll for RTP on the Azores regional elections:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2016 elections)

45% PS (-1), 28/32 seats
32% PSD (+1), 18/22
  3% CDS (-4), 1/3
  3% CHEGA (new), 0/2
  3% BE (-1), 0/2
  2% CDU (-1), 0/1
  2% PAN (+1), 0/1
  2% IL (new), 0/1
  1% PPM (nc), 1
  7% Others/Invalid (nc), 0

Poll conducted between 17 and 18 October 2020 in S. Miguel and Terceira islands. Polled 3,159 voters. MoE of 1.70%.

The smaller parties results are really surprising. Real fight for 3rd place and the PS majority could really be in danger. We'll see.

[crals]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.

I think he's more anti-establishment than anything else tbh (and in the Azores the PS is effectively the establishment), he used to vote BE in the past, I also recall he supported Marinho e Pinto (MPT) in 2014, and his political opinions have fluctuated quite a lot. Indeed he dislikes PS (everyone in our family does tbh) but in Portugal that doesn't necessarily mean disliking socialism or the left as a whole.

Back in 2019 leftist Twitter rejoiced when CDS bombed and Cristas stepped down, which really puzzled me. CDS disappearing doesn't mean the space to the right of PSD will magically disappear too, it just means something else (probably worse) will fill that space, and indeed Chega and to a lesser extent IL are far more unsavory imo. Similarly Cristas getting the boot obviously led to a more conservative leadership (though less than expected).

In any case I still think/hope CDS will at least retain their seats for Terceira (their party leader) and São Jorge (their strongest island).

[Mike88]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.

I think he's more anti-establishment than anything else tbh (and in the Azores the PS is effectively the establishment), he used to vote BE in the past, I also recall he supported Marinho e Pinto (MPT) in 2014, and his political opinions have fluctuated quite a lot. Indeed he dislikes PS (everyone in our family does tbh) but in Portugal that doesn't necessarily mean disliking socialism or the left as a whole.

Back in 2019 leftist Twitter rejoiced when CDS bombed and Cristas stepped down, which really puzzled me. CDS disappearing doesn't mean the space to the right of PSD will magically disappear too, it just means something else (probably worse) will fill that space, and indeed Chega and to a lesser extent IL are far more unsavory imo. Similarly Cristas getting the boot obviously led to a more conservative leadership (though less than expected).

In any case I still think/hope CDS will at least retain their seats for Terceira (their party leader) and São Jorge (their strongest island).

I don't know. That poll, and although polling in Azores is "complicated", points to a very bad night for CDS, winning just maybe 1 seat, maybe like you said from S. Jorge. The CHEGA and IL results are really surprising.

One point about the poll: this poll only polled people in S. Miguel and Terceira, where 80% of the population live. However, only 53% of seats are from these islands and the rest from the smaller islands and the compensation circle. CDS is very strong in S. Jorge, PS in Santa Maria and Faial and Pico will probably be very close between PS and PSD. Graciosa flip flops a lot as does Flores. Corvo can also be interesting if there's a 3 way race between PS, PPM and PSD.

[Mike88]

Political update:

PSD announces they will vote against the 2021 budget. Negotiations between PS and BE/CDU are still ongoing.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1317191413856161795

PSD will vote against the budget. Pressure is all on the left

PSD leader Rui Rio announced what everybody already knew: the PSD will vote against the 2021 budget. In a speech to the PSD caucus, Rio said the budget has many issues and that Costa continues to not solve the big problems of debt in Portugal. Rio added that the budget "isn't realistic" criticizing the "ludicrous" forecast of tax revenues for 2021. According to Rio, the 2021 budget should focus more on jobs and businesses and that policies like the increase of the minimum wage, don't help businesses with no money right now.

The PS already responded to the PSD "No" vote to the budget criticizing Mr. Rio stands and saying that the PSD, and Rio, threw away the "national interest". At the same time, negotiations between PS and BE/CDU continue with some progress but not that much. The government is considering many vote possibilities: BE vote against and CDU/PAN abstention, or PAN voting in favour. The BE will make a decision regarding the budget next week.

Euthanasia referendum: Parliament starts to debate a possible referendum but a majority is against a referendum.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1319350297957928964

Parliament: Left united against euthanasia referendum, right divided

Parliament started debating, with a final vote tomorrow, a possible referendum on the euthanasia issue. The proposal is all but certain to fail as the left parties are against a referendum and the right is divided, particularly the PSD. The debate was quite low profile with parties not engaging each other. The PSD will give freedom of vote to their MPs, as will the PS. In the PSD, however, it's expected a majority will vote in favour of a referendum but some, including PSD leader Rui Rio, will vote against. The left parties, and some PSD MPs, say Parliament has all the legitimacy to rule on the issue, while the parties more on the right, IL, CDS and CHEGA, say that people's will should not be ignored and that a vote against is an act of "weakness".

Azores regional elections: Público newspaper says the PSD-Azores leader is being investigated for a  culpable insolvency in a public company when he was mayor.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1319149278229573633

Candidate for the presidency of the Azores government investigated for culpable insolvency

Público newspaper printed a story, today, regarding the PSD candidate in the Azores regional elections. With just 3 days left until election day, the newspaper says José Manuel Bolieiro is being investigated for "culpable insolvency" in a public company when he was mayor of Ponta Delgada (2012-2019). According to the report, Mr Bolieiro is accused of seeling the company, called Azores Parque, to a society with registered accounts when the company had a negative balance of 11 million euros. The former managers of Azores Parque are also accused of squandering assets. The PSD says the report is very strange because the facts aren't new and have already been discussed in Ponta Delgada city hall. Mr Bolieiro says the report is a clear act to disrupt the campaign and PSD leader Rui Rio accused Público newspaper of being "at the service of the PS".

The PS campaign, by the voice of Vasco Cordeiro, said all facts need to be investigated and that Mr Bolieiro has the right to the presumption of innocence as does everybody else. This the second "scandal" during the Azores campaign. The first was an email sent by the Azores tax authority to voters remaining them to register to vote and vote early. Opposition parties said this was clear abuse of power of the PS, and the Electoral Commission ruled that the Azores government shouldn't had sent the email.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
  8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
  6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.