🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

US-Portugal tensions? US Ambassador George Glass says that Portugal needs to choose between their allies or the Chinese regarding 5G.

https://twitter.com/MSN_Portugal/status/1309712206875955200

United States pressures Government: "Portugal must now choose between its allies or the Chinese", says ambassador

In an interview to Expresso newspaper, US ambassador George Glass pressured the Portuguese government on several economic decisions that Portugal will take between the US and China. Mr Glass warned the government that if 5G coverage goes to the Chinese, relations between Portugal and the US will suffer consequences, adding to this the expansion of the Sines Harbour which is also in contention between the US and China.

The foreign affairs minister and President Marcelo have already reacted to these statements. Mr Santos Silva, foreign minister, said he registered what the ambassador said, but that in Portugal it is the Portuguese authorities who make decisions. President Marcelo followed a similar tone, saying who takes decisions in Portugal are officials elected by the people and only them.

During next week, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, Keith J. Krach, will visit Portugal and meet with the Government.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: PSD reveals their election manifesto.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1309913223462825986

PSD program wants to de-governmentalize the region

Main policies:

- Decentralize and de-governmentalize the region;
- Creation of a regional mobility market to ease transportation of people and goods;
- Creation of a special tariff for residents flying within the archipelago;
- Reduction of VAT and Corporate taxes;
- Remove political top jobs from the Health department to reinforce the independency of the department;
- Modernize and support media companies, especially RTP-Azores;
- Creation of an European Parliament constituency from Azores;
- Turn SATA airlines solvent and maintain the public hold of the company;
- Invest in digital transformation of regional services, from health to overall services;

Will post other party manifestos when they are unveiled.

[Mike88]

CHEGA wants to expel member who proposed the removal of ovaries from women who aborted in the party's convention:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1310659850217689095

Portugal: CHEGA wants to expel author of motion for removal of ovaries in women

The motion, presented last week in CHEGA's convention in Évora, proposed the removal of ovaries in women who had aborted. The motion was widely rejected, 85% against, but created a lot of controversy in the media. The member who proposed this was Rui Roque, a former PNR member. But it seems that Ventura was furious with the proposal and now wants to expel Rui Roque from the party saying that this proposal tarnishes the party's name and it's a violation of women rights and dignities. In a statement sent to the press, Ventura also said that policies that violate the dignity of the human person and the value of the democratic state cannot be accepted by CHEGA.*

*(But CHEGA continues to propose the castration of pedophiles, which was already considered unconstitutional and forbidden to be discussed.)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Holy f**king f**k!

I didn't realize *this* was the level of craziness CHEGA amounted to.

[Mike88]

Holy f**king f**k!

I didn't realize *this* was the level of craziness CHEGA amounted to.

Like I said before, all the nutjobs that were swirling around in the PSD, CDS and some, like the one that proposed that, in PNR all came to CHEGA. But, seem to be a bit over the top.

Also, the 2021 budget "tension" continues: Catarina Martins, BE leader, is waiting for clear signs of the PS in order to negotiate and says BE doesn't feel obligated to approve the budget.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1310735801911668737

Catarina Martins attacks “financial gangsterism” and expects “clearer signs of PS negotiation will” in the State Budget

Catarina Martins, BE leader, did an interview to SIC last night where she asked the PS to give signs they're willing to negotiate with BE, adding that the meetings held with the Finance minister were note very positive. She, once again, defended the BE flags of more investments in the NHS and no more state money for the Novo Banco, with Ms Martins accusing these institutions of "financial gangsterism".  She added that the party doesn't feel obligated to approve the budget. The PS, PM and the President are all warning that there cannot be a political crisis, putting more pressure on BE at the same time PCP is not willing to compromise and PS doesn't want talks with PSD.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PAN is likely to support Ana Gomes, and Pedro Nuno Santos defies Costa, once again.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1311298641907404802

Pedro Nuno responds to Santos Silva, challenges Costa and defends Ana Gomes: “Who decides who the PS supports are the party agencies”

The minister of Infrastructures and possible successor of Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos, defied, once again, the PM's advise that ministers should opt out in discussing the Presidential elections and responded to his college, the foreign affairs minister, after the latter said that Ms Gomes was a good candidate but not for the PS. Mr Nuno Santos defended Ana Gomes saying if she's good enough to be a MEP she good enough to be a PS candidate. He added that it isn't the PM or the government who says which candidate, or not, the PS supports but rather the party internal agencies.

PAN also announced they will not present a candidate and will decide, tomorrow, who to support. But, the media is saying that the most likely option is to support Ana Gomes. Ana Gomes already has the support of Livre.

[Mike88]

In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments:

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV on the Presidential elections:

Vote share %:

65% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
12% Ana Gomes
  8% André Ventura
  7% Marisa Matias
  6% João Ferreira
  1% Other candidates

Support by party: (PS, PSD, BE, CHEGA, CDU)

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa - 55%, 72%, 7%, 6%, 0%
Ana Gomes - 15%, 3%, 5%, 0%, 3%
André Ventura - 0%, 1%, 0%, 81%, 0%
Marisa Matias - 1%, 2%, 54%, 0%, 8%
João Ferreira - 2%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 70%

Poll conducted between 14 and 24 September 2020. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %: (compared with the February poll)

37% PS (+4)
27% PSD (-1)
  8% BE (-1)
  7% CHEGA (+1)
  6% CDU (-2)
  4% PAN (+1)
  2% CDS (-2) 
  2% IL (nc)
  0% Livre (-1)
  4% Others (+3)
  2% Invalid/Blank (-3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

7.0 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.1)
5.7 António Costa (+0.1)
4.8 Rui Rio (+0.4)
4.6 Catarina Martins (nc)
3.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.7)
3.4 André Silva (+0.1)
3.1 André Ventura (-0.1)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.2 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Government's job approval:

49% Approve (-8)
43% Disapprove (+9)
  8% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted between 14 and 24 September 2020. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

The Government announces a series of policies to gain the support of BE/CDU in the 2021 budget vote:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1312057297473024001

These are the 16 measures of the Government to convince the left to approve the OE

The government announced, today, a series of policies in order to convince the left to vote in favour of the 2021 budget. Negotiations with the BE and CDU will continue next week and they seem to be a bit staled, so the government decided to make an update on what's on the table to convince parties and move away the "ghost" of a political crisis, although some in the media, in op-eds, are already saying that Costa's government is rotting and the rest is just a matter of time. Nonetheless, the main policies are the following:

- Reinforcement of human resources in the National Health Service (NHS);
- Creation of a special subsidy for NHS workers in the front line against Covid-19;
- Policies to control abuse and regulate workers' rights in teleworking;
- Extend collective bargaining to outsourced workers;
- Big increase in the national minimum wage (NMW);
- Extraordinary increase in pensions;
- Creation of a new social support with the poverty line as reference;
- Looking for ways the State will not give money to the Novo Banco in 2021;

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: In the first debate between all parties, everyone attacked the PS and defended the end of the absolute majority of the PS. Also, PSD has a small victory as the Constitutional Court accepts the candidacy of their head-list candidate in Terceira.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1312201177967157248

Opposition calls for an end to the socialist absolute majority, PS will accept the people's will

In the first debate between all main party leaders for the Azores regional election, as expected, the PS was the preferred target. The 20 years of PS majority governments were attacked with opposition parties asking voters to strip the PS from its majority. On the right, PSD defended the alternation of government, adding that changing government is good for democracy. CDS, CHEGA, PPM and IL defended that the PS dominance in regional services is overwhelming and that this hurts freedoms and democracy. On the left, BE accused the PS of "show off campaign" by inaugurating public works during the election campaign. CDU said absolute majorities are bad for democracy and pointed to the "geringonça" agreement between the national PS, BE and CDU parties. PAN says the PS has become sloppy after almost 25 years in power.

Vasco Cordeiro, PS leader, responded saying the islands are living "extraordinary times", due to Covid, and that voters have the obligation to strengthen Azores autonomy. He added that it is the people who will decide if there's a majority or not, stressing that the PS will respect the people's will.

Also, before the debate, it was revealed the PSD head-list candidate for Terceira island, national MP António Ventura, was accepted by the Constitutional Court after the PSD appeal. A court in Angra do Heroísmo rejected Mr Ventura candidacy and the PSD labeled the decision as unfair and wrong, claiming precedents.

[Mike88]

Another controversy?: Costa fires President of the Court of Auditors by telephone.

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1312351789652606977

Portugal - Costa “fired” President of the Court of Auditors by telephone

It's being reported, today, that PM António Costa fired the President of the Court of Auditors, Vítor Caldeira, by telephone as he communicated to Mr Caldeira his name would not be put up for renomination. According to Sol newspaper, Mr Caldeira asked for several meetings with Costa to discuss this matter, but he received no response from the PM. Judges say Costa decision shows his lack of respect for the institution of the Court of Auditors and that Mr. Caldeira was victim of his "independence". The Court of Auditors has been, in the last few years, very critical of many of the government's financial decision, with most recently saying the government's proposal to change the Public Contracts Code (CCP) can lead to unfair competition and open the door to collusion and even corruption.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PS and PSD want early voting for voters confined at home due to Covid-19.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1311588106559258624

PS joins PSD and proposes early vote for confined voters.

The PS has joined with the PSD and proposed a special regime in the electoral law to allow voters, confined at home due to Covid, to vote early in next January 2021 presidential elections. The PS proposal is basically the same as the PSD one, proposed in mid-September, and proposes that the mayor, a councillor or any other local official, travel to the voter's home, or place where it's confined, and give him a ballot to fill and then seal it in special safety envelope. This move can also be witnessed by representatives of the campaigns if they demand it. Adding to this, the PSD proposal also asks for the disinfection and quarantine of the envelopes for 48 hours before sending it to election precincts.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments:

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

[Mike88]

In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments:

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

Alliance (A) head-list candidate for São Miguel island.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments:

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

Alliance (A) head-list candidate for São Miguel island.

Uhm, I hoped for a better party. Not a fan of Aliança.

[Mike88]

In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments:

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

Alliance (A) head-list candidate for São Miguel island.

Uhm, I hoped for a better party. Not a fan of Aliança.

To be fair, almost no one is fan of Aliança.

[Mike88]

Azores regional election campaign: In 3 weeks, voters will head to the polls, although some will cast ballots in early voting day 2 weeks from today. Party leaders are already on the road:

PS - Vasco Cordeiro talking to voters in Graciosa island:

PSD - José Manuel Bolieiro talking to voters in São Jorge island:

CDS - CDS-Azores leader, Artur Lima, in a protest with health workers:

BE - BE-Azores leader in a protest with health workers in Ponta Delgada hospital:

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: 1/3 of city halls could change hands next year.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1312729567761633282

One third of city councils could change hands

Jornal de Notícias does, this Sunday, an interesting analysis about the 2021 local elections. In exactly one year from now, if the elections are called for October 3 2021, voters across the country will elect almost 40,000 local members, from mayors, councillors, municipal assembly members, parish presidents and parish assembly members. In next year's local elections, 45 mayor are barred from reelection, and the PS has the majority of mayors barred, 25, while the PSD only has 14. Plus, the newspaper analysis shows that 112 races are "too close to call", meaning they were very close in 2017 or have a tendency to swing back and forward. The rest are safe races. PS currently has 161 mayors, PSD 98, CDU 24, Independents have 17, CDS 6, JPP 1 and We, the Citizens 1.

Next year's local elections are crucial for the two main parties. PSD leader, Rui Rio, will face the ultimate test to his leadership in these elections. The PSD has been losing ground on local elections since 2009, and Mr Rio has made the pledge that he will do everything in his power to gain back power for the party locally. If he fails, he will, without any doubt, resign or be kicked out of the leadership. Costa has also a lot in play as the PS will be defending a lot of gains from 2013 and 2017 and knows history doesn't favour incumbent governments in midterm local elections. In fact, the only time an opposition party lost ground in a local election in the middle of a 4 year term of a government was the PSD in 2017. In every other midterm local election, since 1974, the main opposition party always gained ground, however there are examples of governing parties winning a bit of ground.

Mayors won or lost by incumbent and opposition parties: (incumbent government in bold)

1982: AD (-30), PS (+24)
1989: PSD (-35), PS (+41)
1993: PSD (+2), PS (+7)
1997: PS (+1), PSD (+11)
2001: PS (-15), PSD (+32)
2013: PSD (-33), PS (+15)
2017: PS (+8), PSD (-10)

It will be also interesting to see how does CDU perform in these elections. The Communists lost a huge amount of ground in 2017, and results from the 2019 general elections showed the party losing a lot of support in many of their strongholds. Local elections are a different reality, but party strengh and organization will be crucial and CDU is in a down path trend meaning the PS could gain some mayors in big "red" cities, like Seixal, Setúbal and Évora.

National polling trends almost always have an impact in the overall result of local elections. So, the national polling and government approvals during 2021, or close to the election, will be an indicator of how things will play out.

[Mike88]

JUST IN: Member of Council of State, António Lobo Xavier, is infected with Covid-19. The President, PM, Leader of the Opposition, former Presidents, Madeira and Azores leaders and Ursula Von der Leyen were in a meeting with him last Tuesday. All are being tested.
https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1312877875712974848

Lobo Xavier has Covid, State advisers will be tested

António Lobo Xavier, a CDS member who is also member of the Council of State, announced he's infected with Covid-19. He took part in a meeting last Tuesday with all high profile figures of the Portuguese State, plus Ursula Von der Leyen. Everyone in the meeting wore a mask and was socially distanced, however, some talked with each other after and before the meeting. All participants are being tested. Some results could be known even this evening.

[Mike88]

Update: Results from Marcelo, Costa and the Speaker of Parliament came negative for Covid-19. Former Presidents Cavaco Silva and Jorge Sampaio also tested negative.

The media is also saying that former President Ramalho Eanes and PSD leader Rui Rio will be tested tomorrow.

[Mike88]

All tests came negative for everyone, including Ursula Von der Leyen.

Moving forward, today is national holiday in Portugal as it the 110th anniversary of the implantation of the Republic. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made a speech in Lisbon city hall, where the republic was proclaimed in 1910:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1313066571850559489

Footage - Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa calls for unity on the most suffered October 5 in democracy.

In the speech, Marcelo asked for unity in a very difficult time for the country and said that restrictions, due to Covid, cannot hurt fundamental right, adding "we need to continue to act in freedom because we don't want dictatorships in Portugal". The President also said that dictatorships across the world didn't solve the crisis, and said that Portugal must follow the republican ethic "that rejects cronyisms, clientele and corruptions." The media says this is clear and direct swipe at Costa's government for its decision of firing the President of the  Court of Auditors because of his criticisms to the government's policies changes that could create widespread corruption and bad management in EU funds.

Marcelo also asked for responsibility in talks for the 2021 budget saying that "collective interests must overlap personal interests".

Basically all parties are approving the President's speech. PS says the speech was good as it was an act for responsibility of political leaders; PSD says the speech was also good as it highlighted the party's worries about corruption and the economy; CDS applauded the President's worry regarding corruption in EU funds; BE liked the President's appeal for unity and dialogue. On the other hand, CHEGA said Marcelo's speech was "vague" and didn't give nothing concrete or hopefull for the country. The media is pointing that Marcelo gave a "warning" speech about possible dangers ahead, like the economy and corruption and the he seemed to be pressuring parties, and specially Costa and his government, to act with responsibility.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

All tests came negative for everyone, including Ursula Von der Leyen.

Moving forward, today is national holiday in Portugal as it the 110th anniversary of the implantation of the Republic. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made a speech in Lisbon city hall, where the republic was proclaimed in 1910:

Holiday greetings to all of you in Portugal!

[Mike88]

2021 budget: Talks continue between PS and BE/CDU with no agreement yet.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1313974170930343938

5:30 am summit with BE came to nothing. Catarina gives the government “4 days” (or it may struck down the Budget)

The government approved, today, the budget draft for 2021 but talks with BE/CDU continue as no agreement is yet near, according to the media. BE and PS negotiated for more than 5 hours, yesterday, with zero results and BE leader, Catarina Martins, is giving the government 4 days to reach an agreement or BE will vote against the budget. And CDU, which at first was at odds with the government, is now talking with the government, but their vote is still very much in doubt. The Finance minister also presented, yesterday, the budget to all parties in Parliament and the reaction was quite bad for it. PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA say the budget has nothing for businesses and the private sector, while BE and CDU say the discussion was vague and more priorities, like workers rights and state help, should be upgraded in the budget. The budget is still likely to pass, but the tension, real or fake, continues.

Also, the Electoral Commission announced several changes for the 2021 Presidential elections, in terms of ways of voting:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1314152076340088832

Presidential elections will have door by door vote picking.

In the January 2021 elections, there will be an early voting precinct in each municipality, until now there were only 18, one in each district capital, confined voters will be able to cast ballot in their homes, and voters lists by precincts will be reduced to avoid agglomerations. The number of precincts will probably increase in the elections. Some are also suggesting early voting to be extended for 3 or 4 days rather than just one day. The Commission added that all this changes will demand the hiring of more 10,000 election workers and more investments.

[Mike88]

Nomination of a new President of the Court of Auditors is creating controversy:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1313598786527285248

New President of the Court of Auditors referred to in the Public-Private Partnerships inquiry

The nomination of a new President of the Court of Auditors is creating some controversy due to his past, as the nominee, Carlos Correia da Fonseca was, allegedly, involved in many Public-Private Partnerships schemes during the Sócrates government regarding high-speed trains. Mr Fonseca was chosen by Costa and signed by Marcelo. PSD leader, Rui Rio, was also involved in the controversy as the President pushed him in order to have ground to justify his support. Rio, pressured by the press, said he wanted a second term of Mr Vítor Caldeira, but that he approved the nomination of Mr Fonseca. Of course, the PSD electorate is furious with this. The media is considering this as another mistake done by Costa, from the way he "fired" the former President of the Court of Auditors and how he handled the nomination of a new one as, some pundits say, transparency is completely missing from the government's conduct, not to mention the lack of scrutiny.