🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Controversy as many media outlets were banned from an anti-corruption press conference by the Justice minister:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1302169613560475648

Restricting Press at conferences is "aberrant"

The controversy started this week when the Justice minister called a limited and chosen number of media outlets to cover her conference on the government's strategy on fighting corruption. The government says the restrictions were due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but some media outlets, like Jornal de Notícias, are comparing this to Donald Trump's actions towards the press and add that the pandemic cannot be an excuse. Many constitutional law especialits are also appalled by the government's action saying the government actions violate freedom of the press.

[Mike88]

Polling update:

It seems that Eurosondagem has stop polling. Normally they released their polls on the first days of every month, but since the last one, in early July, no poll was released.

Nonetheless, the current polling average is as follows: (from here)

39.8% PS, 113 seats
26.0% PSD, 73
  7.8% BE, 16
  6.3% CHEGA, 10
  6.0% CDU, 10
  3.0% PAN, 3
  2.8% CDS, 3
  2.2% IL, 2
  0.3% Livre, 0
  0.0% Alliance, 0
  5.8% Others/Invalid, 0

Next week, we'll probably have some polling, maybe from Aximage and Intercampus, and we'll see if the latest big political events, the threat of a political crisis by Costa and the Avante festival fallout, had any impact in voting intentions.

[Mike88]

CHEGA leadership elections: Ventura is reelected and party members refuse the death penalty.

CHEGA party held, today, a leadership elections and an intern referendum regarding the death penalty. The leadership elections were called last March, when Ventura accused some members of his party of plotting against him and called an election and challenged them to run against him. No one ran against Ventura and he was overwhelmingly reelected. Party members also struck down the party support for the death penalty for violent crimes, like terrorism, rape, sexual abuse of minors and qualified homicide. More than 11,000 CHEGA members were registered to vote and around 40% cast a ballot. The results were the following:

Leadership election:

99.1% André Ventura
  0.9% Blank/Invalid

Death penalty for violent crimes:

56% No
44% Yes

[Mike88]

Many personalities, including former PMs Cavaco Silva and Passos Coelho, sign a petition to allow parents to object their children to attend Citizenship Education classes:

Counter petition in favour of Citizenship Education classes has more than 500 personalities, as of one of the students parents asks for the resignation the Education Secretary:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1301822582627368960

Petition with 500 subscribers defends that "citizenship is not an option"

After a petition suggesting that parents should object their children to attend Citizenship Education classes was revealed and supported by many personalities like Cavaco Silva, Passos Coelho and the Cardinal of Lisbon, a counter petition signed by more than 500 personalities, and growing, defends the classes and adds that "citizenship is not an option". The main signatures are Ana Gomes, possible candidate in the 2021 presidential elections, Pedro Bacelar de Vasconcelos and Daniel Oliveira.

At the same time, one of the fathers of the students has written an open letter to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa asking to support the resignation of the Education secretary, João Costa, after Mr Costa wrote an op-ed in Público newspaper accusing the parents of using their children as political props in a ideological campaign. The parent in question says he was shocked by the words of the Education secretary and that he was disrespectful to his family and has no ethics to be a government official.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Ana Gomes is also in.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1303104807331418112

Presidential elections: Ana Gomes is a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic

According to Público newspaper, Ana Gomes, former PS MEP, will run for the 2021 Presidential elections. She has confirmed this to the newspaper and an official statement will be made this Thursday. Ms Gomes will be the 5th candidate to announce a candidacy for the January 2021 elections. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, incumbent President, is expected to announce his candidacy during November and the PCP will announce a candidate during the current month of September.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:

https://twitter.com/AndreCVentura/status/1303130317365096448

Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.

[VPH]

2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:

https://twitter.com/AndreCVentura/status/1303130317365096448

Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.

It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

[Mike88]

It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

Well, I somewhat disagree with that. Polling suggests that Marisa Matias may not be a factor this time around like she was 5 years ago, and Gomes and Ventura could benefit from a forgone conclusion election. Marcelo will be reelected, that's not the issue, but, will it be a strong reelection or a weak reelection? And here, both Ana Gomes and Ventura can appeal to possible PSD or PS voters who would have voted Marcelo: Gomes can appeal to PS voters who don't see themselves voting for Marcelo, and she can also appeal to some PSD voters, like myself, who are a bit fed up with Marcelo and like her message of anti-corruption and, a bit, anti-establishment. Ventura can appeal to PSD voters furious with Marcelo for helping too much Costa and, a bit like Ana Gomes, appeal with his anti-corruption, anti-establishment message.

Once again, Marcelo's reelection isn't in doubt, every President is always reelected, but this may not be the "walk on the park" Marcelo and many others were predicting.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Two more candidates in the race.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1303381476982099969

Presidential. From André Ventura to Tino de Rans, there are already eight pre-candidates for Belém

Tino de Rans, his real name is Vitorino Silva, is back and will run for the 2021 Presidential elections. After his new party, React, Include, Recycle (RIR), polled 0.67% in the 2019 elections, just 5,000 votes bellow Santana Lopes Alliance party, and his 6th place showing in the 2016 presidential elections, Tino de Rans says he will file his name and run for the election, adding his goal is to fight populisms. The other candidate is Orlando Cruz, who tried to run in 2016 but failed to gather enough signatures.

The PCP also updated the press about their candidate, announcing that the name will probably be revealed next weekend.

With the PCP unknown candidate, a total of 8 candidates have announced their intention to run in the 2021 January presidential elections.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Marisa Matias, BE candidate, officially announces her run in Lisbon.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1303740264582918145

Marisa Matias runs “face to face” with Marcelo and against fear

Marisa Matias, BE candidate, officially launched her run for the January 2021 elections in Lisbon, most precisely in Carmo square, where the 1974 Carnation revolution occurred. In an event without any party leaders, just ordinary supporters, Ms Matias said she will the candidate "against fear" and that she would fight for those who have the courage to help others. The supporters in the event were nurses, doctors, teachers, scientists and front line workers like bus drivers and shop workers.

Tomorrow, Ana Gomes will also officially present her candidacy.

[VPH]

It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

Well, I somewhat disagree with that. Polling suggests that Marisa Matias may not be a factor this time around like she was 5 years ago, and Gomes and Ventura could benefit from a forgone conclusion election. Marcelo will be reelected, that's not the issue, but, will it be a strong reelection or a weak reelection? And here, both Ana Gomes and Ventura can appeal to possible PSD or PS voters who would have voted Marcelo: Gomes can appeal to PS voters who don't see themselves voting for Marcelo, and she can also appeal to some PSD voters, like myself, who are a bit fed up with Marcelo and like her message of anti-corruption and, a bit, anti-establishment. Ventura can appeal to PSD voters furious with Marcelo for helping too much Costa and, a bit like Ana Gomes, appeal with his anti-corruption, anti-establishment message.

Once again, Marcelo's reelection isn't in doubt, every President is always reelected, but this may not be the "walk on the park" Marcelo and many others were predicting.

Fair enough. I think my grandpa is voting for Ventura over Marcelo. I voted PS in the Legislativas but will be voting for Marcelo this time as long as I don't have to physically go to the consulate in Newark to vote.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:

https://twitter.com/AndreCVentura/status/1303130317365096448

Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.

Ouch!

Where is the cancel culture woke mob for this racist misogynist?

(/s but actually not)

By the way: which groups do people usually refer to when they say "minorities" in Portugal?

[Mike88]

Fair enough. I think my grandpa is voting for Ventura over Marcelo. I voted PS in the Legislativas but will be voting for Marcelo this time as long as I don't have to physically go to the consulate in Newark to vote.

Unfortunately, vote by mail isn't allowed for the presidential election, only in person vote. A stupid, really stupid thing. They've change it for the general elections, but not for the presidential elections. Maybe, by November, MPs will draft a quick change to allow it, but I'm skeptical.

And, in my opinion, vote by-mail should be allowed to very single registered voter, in Portugal and outside. And because of the pandemic, maybe it will be a future change. Fingers crossed.

Ouch!

Where is the cancel culture woke mob for this racist misogynist?

(/s but actually not)

By the way: which groups do people usually refer to when they say "minorities" in Portugal?

There was a big uproar on the media and social media because of this tweet, like almost always when Ventura tweets something. Pundits accuse Ventura of using everything to gain votes and social media accuses him of being, like you said, misogynist and racist. The minorities he's talking is most likely the gypsy community, a community he is, constantly, insulting and accusing of living of state money.

Also, he has called Marisa Matias, BE candidate, the "marijuana candidate" and a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ouch!

Where is the cancel culture woke mob for this racist misogynist?

(/s but actually not)

By the way: which groups do people usually refer to when they say "minorities" in Portugal?

There was a big uproar on the media and social media because of this tweet, like almost always when Ventura tweets something. Pundits accuse Ventura of using everything to gain votes and social media accuses him of being, like you said, misogynist and racist. The minorities he's talking is most likely the gypsy community, a community he is, constantly, insulting and accusing of living of state money.

Also, he has called Marisa Matias, BE candidate, the "marijuana candidate" and a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta".

Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

[Mike88]

Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

The term we use, here in Portugal, is "ciganos". This community has always been target of attacks in the past curiously by basically all major parties, from PS to CDS, but Ventura and his party have now the monopoly to the attacks towards the gypsy community.

About Ventura being a little Trump, I think that maybe that's more a compliment to him. Trump always had a pattern on women, minorities, you name it, while Ventura, in my view, is full blown opportunist who made a 180º change of his beliefs in just 2/3 years. In the past, as a young college grad student, Ventura was in favour of abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and that church should not influence politics, particularly on gender politics. He also defended, in his academic thesis, that minorities are being hurt and stigmatized and came out against the "penal populism", meaning politicians that punish minorities in order to be popular with voters. He also defended more immigration to Portugal.

Now, he's against everything that is written above and his defense is that he was too young back then and that, about his thesis, he separates science from politics.

About what he said about Marisa Matias, I don't know what that even means, to be honest. It's just some lame attack, frankly.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

The term we use, here in Portugal, is "ciganos". This community has always been target of attacks in the past curiously by basically all major parties, from PS to CDS, but Ventura and his party have now the monopoly to the attacks towards the gypsy community.

About Ventura being a little Trump, I think that maybe that's more a compliment to him. Trump always had a pattern on women, minorities, you name it, while Ventura, in my view, is full blown opportunist who made a 180º change of his beliefs in just 2/3 years. In the past, as a young college grad student, Ventura was in favour of abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and that church should not influence politics, particularly on gender politics. He also defended, in his academic thesis, that minorities are being hurt and stigmatized and came out against the "penal populism", meaning politicians that punish minorities in order to be popular with voters. He also defended more immigration to Portugal.

Now, he's against everything that is written above and his defense is that he was too young back then and that, about his thesis, he separates science from politics.

About what he said about Marisa Matias, I don't know what that even means, to be honest. It's just some lame attack, frankly.

Trump has always had a pattern on women and minorities but he is an opportunist too. He used to be vocally pro-choice, once talked about higher taxes on the wealthy, and so on.

I imagine that the comment about Matias is a way to disparage her as some kind of misguided idealist who fetishizes the poor and the immigrants.

[Mike88]

Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

The term we use, here in Portugal, is "ciganos". This community has always been target of attacks in the past curiously by basically all major parties, from PS to CDS, but Ventura and his party have now the monopoly to the attacks towards the gypsy community.

About Ventura being a little Trump, I think that maybe that's more a compliment to him. Trump always had a pattern on women, minorities, you name it, while Ventura, in my view, is full blown opportunist who made a 180º change of his beliefs in just 2/3 years. In the past, as a young college grad student, Ventura was in favour of abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and that church should not influence politics, particularly on gender politics. He also defended, in his academic thesis, that minorities are being hurt and stigmatized and came out against the "penal populism", meaning politicians that punish minorities in order to be popular with voters. He also defended more immigration to Portugal.

Now, he's against everything that is written above and his defense is that he was too young back then and that, about his thesis, he separates science from politics.

About what he said about Marisa Matias, I don't know what that even means, to be honest. It's just some lame attack, frankly.

Trump has always had a pattern on women and minorities but he is an opportunist too. He used to be vocally pro-choice, once talked about higher taxes on the wealthy, and so on.

I imagine that the comment about Matias is a way to disparage her as some kind of misguided idealist who fetishizes the poor and the immigrants.

Fair point. Trump had always that "thing" in him, and maybe his more moderate stands in past was a way to be in good terms with the NY celebrity world. My hunch is that Ventura, and this is my opinion, still has some of the same personal positions he had as a grad student and during his thesis, but he changed them, at least in the public realm, in order to have a political future as he realized he would never rise in the ranks of his former party, the PSD, after those gypsy comments in 2017. He also was cleaver to realize that a considerable chunk of the electorate, more conservative and angry, was left without a party as CDS become more and more moderate.

Of course, the same can also be said about Trump.

[CumbrianLefty]

The thing about most "new right" populists (Trump/Bolsonaro/Johnson and now Ventura) is that outside their core "ideology" of nationalism they are pretty opportunist (or if you prefer "flexible") on most things. Its one of the factors that complicates effective attacks on them.

[Mike88]

The thing about most "new right" populists (Trump/Bolsonaro/Johnson and now Ventura) is that outside their core "ideology" of nationalism they are pretty opportunist (or if you prefer "flexible") on most things. Its one of the factors that complicates effective attacks on them.

Indeed, and I forgot to mention another similarity, this time yes, with Trump: the anti-corruption disconnection. Ventura likes to talk about how corrupt the system is and that he will fight against corruption, but he has a problem in here: Benfica. I'm no Benfica fan, far from it, but there's no doubt that the level of corruption in Portuguese football is overwhelming, not to mention the political connections. Ventura has a problem here as his anti-corruption message hits a wall as Benfica is being investigated because of several corrupt schemes and Ventura is known to be a huge Benfica defender as he was a TV commentator that, each night, defended Benfica from corruption accusation, sometimes in tense clashes. Many of them have been revealed by hacker Rui Pinto, whose trial is beginning but the police wants to use him to dig up more stuff regarding corruption in Portugal. The recent revelation is that Benfica's president, Luís Filipe Vieira, has connections with Odebrecht corrupt deals.

Ana Gomes is a huge defender of Rui Pinto and has attacked deeply the corrupt connections of Benfica and Portuguese football. This will probably come up during the Presidential debates. And when you mix, football and politics in Portugal, the combination can be explosive.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Ana Gomes launches her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1304088150160093184

Ana Gomes presents candidacy for the Presidency in the name of freedom and democracy

Ana Gomes is officially in the run for the January 2021 elections. She presented her candidacy in the Press House, in Lisbon, in front of reporters. She said she's running for the Presidency because democracy is in danger and that the fight against inequality, injustice and corruption will be the main flags of her campaign, adding that part of the system has been corroding. She added that citizens cannot be pushed to the sidelines anymore as they will fall in the hands of "false prophets".

She also criticized the PS, and indirectly António Costa, for downplaying the presidential elections and that she could not "defect" in these times and will be a voice for the moderate left.

[crals]

Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.

That sounds like a gigantic self-own, true.

On the other hand he may find a way not to respect his pledge anyways.

[Mike88]

Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.

That sounds like a gigantic self-own, true.

On the other hand he may find a way not to respect his pledge anyways.

Of course he will. That's not even in doubt. He may "resign" and do a whole dramatic scene but he will never leave the party, because, for the moment, CHEGA is André Ventura.

[Mike88]

It seems that Eurosondagem has stop polling. Normally they released their polls on the first days of every month, but since the last one, in early July, no poll was released.

Scrap that. Eurosondagem has released a new poll.

Eurosondagem poll for Porto Canal, Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.5% PS (+0.1)
28.2% PSD (-1.1)
  8.3% BE (-0.1)
  5.8% CDU (-0.2)
  4.5% CHEGA (+0.1)
  3.3% PAN (+0.5)
  2.5% CDS (+0.3)
  1.0% IL (-0.1)
  7.9% Others/Invalid (+0.5)

Poll conducted between 7 and 10 September 2020. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Controversy as PM António Costa and Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina are part of Benfica's president reelection honor committee:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1304564768120795136

António Costa on the honor committee for Luís Filipe Vieira's candidacy

The news broke in the early hours of the morning, but the controversy has already began. PM António Costa and Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina are part of Luís Filipe Vieira, Benfica's President, reelection honor committee. Mr Vieira is currently accused, and being investigated, in several corruption scandals, some them revealed, like I posted above, by football leaks hacker Rui Pinto, which is defended with tooth and nails by presidential candidate Ana Gomes. Social media has erupted with accusations of some Porto fans saying they will never vote PS again, with some anti-Vieira Benfica fans also saying the same, but with Benfica fans accusing Porto of hypocrisy as Porto mayor, Rui Moreira, and Vila Nova de Gaia mayor were also part of FCPorto's president reelection committee. Pundits are also suggesting Costa made a huge mistake.