🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

In the day that the number of Covid infections reached a new record, more than 10,000 new cases, it's also being reported that President Marcelo is in prophylactic isolation because one of his staff members in the Presidential Palace has contracted the virus.

However, tonight's debate between Marcelo and Ventura is still going to happen and the President will likely participate via satelite or zoom. A confirmation will be given during the afternoon.

[Mike88]

In the day that the number of Covid infections reached a new record, more than 10,000 new cases, it's also being reported that President Marcelo is in prophylactic isolation because one of his staff members in the Presidential Palace has contracted the virus.

However, tonight's debate between Marcelo and Ventura is still going to happen and the President will likely participate via satelite or zoom. A confirmation will be given during the afternoon.

Update:

President Marcelo did a test that came back negative and Health authorities concluded that the President's contact with the member of his staff was minor and his isolation was suspended. Therefore, Marcelo will meet face to face André Ventura in tonight's debate on SIC TV.

Also, the State of Emergency was renewed by Parliament:

In favour (PS, PSD and MP Cristina Rodrigues - 188 votes)
Against (PCP, PEV, IL, CHEGA and MP Joacine Katar Moreira - 15 votes)
Abstained (BE, CDS and PAN - 27 votes)

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential debates: Marcelo vs Ventura debate on SIC TV

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1346957435135672321

Presidential debates 2021: Marcelo versus Ventura: the two rights, the photographs and a revelation from Belém

The Marcelo vs Ventura debate was quite tense. Ventura and Marcelo quarreled deeply on the meaning of the "right" with Marcelo saying he's from the Social Right with a deep attachment to Christian values and love for others and accused Ventura of being from the "Right of Fear". Ventura says he doesn't want to be President of all Portuguese but only for those who do good. Marcelo says that differentiating people from pure to impure says a lot about Ventura. Ventura also accused Marcelo of not helping enough the people affected with the 2017 wildfires, which Marcelo angrily replied saying that the Ventura just says cheap demagogy. But one the most tense moments was when Marcelo basically accused Ventura of being two faced by saying he says one thing in private audiences and completely different things in public, adding that he doesn't admit that by Ventura. All of this after Ventura accused the President of being manipulated by Costa's government.

The full debate:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I spent 34 minutes watching a debate conducted entirely in a language that for the most part I can't understand... what am I doing with my life*

The parts I was able to understand were all great for MARCELO . When he mentioned the social doctrine of the Church and the preferential option for the poor. When he pushed back on that 'photograph with criminals' thing (which I didn't get entirely but seemed like a patently obvious low-key racist appeal) vigorously defending his role as President of all Portuguese. When he defended Portugal's lack of life imprisonment (huh, I discovered that today) making appeals to Sá Carneiro and the Pope and Christian charity.
I mostly missed the second half, but his defence of the COVID strategy seemed pretty forceful, and I learned that Ventura supports presidentialism, which adds to the list of horrible things about him, lol.

But yeah you can guess I prefer the Direita Social to the "Direita do Medo" (as an Esquerda person, of course).




*although of course I understand some bits as a fellow Neolatin language to my own Italian. I could start seriously learning Portuguese, but this is not the right moment and Spanish is far higher on my list of priorities (sorry).

[Mike88]

I spent 34 minutes watching a debate conducted entirely in a language that for the most part I can't understand... what am I doing with my life*

The parts I was able to understand were all great for MARCELO . When he mentioned the social doctrine of the Church and the preferential option for the poor. When he pushed back on that 'photograph with criminals' thing (which I didn't get entirely but seemed like a patently obvious low-key racist appeal) vigorously defending his role as President of all Portuguese. When he defended Portugal's lack of life imprisonment (huh, I discovered that today) making appeals to Sá Carneiro and the Pope and Christian charity.
I mostly missed the second half, but his defence of the COVID strategy seemed pretty forceful, and I learned that Ventura supports presidentialism, which adds to the list of horrible things about him, lol.

But yeah you can guess I prefer the Direita Social to the "Direita do Medo" (as an Esquerda person, of course).




*although of course I understand some bits as a fellow Neolatin language to my own Italian. I could start seriously learning Portuguese, but this is not the right moment and Spanish is far higher on my list of priorities (sorry).

You basically catched the most important parts of the debate . Pundits all agree that Marcelo beated Ventura by a knockout in this debate. Marcelo was able to stop many, if not all, of Ventura's attacks. Plus many of Ventura's responses and attacks fell flat. In fact, Ventura sounds like a "cassette", basically like the PCP, by repeating the same thing over and over again. He's been performing quite badly in the debates, contrary to my expectation, and is becoming too repetitive, and, yes, weak. Don't know if this will hurt him in the polls, though, we'll see.

Also, the debate had a very big audience, more than 1.7 million viewers tuned in. Overall, the 2021 Presidential debates are having very strong audiences. Tonight, there's another debate that could be tense: Ventura vs Marisa Matias.

[Mike88]

The "CV scandal" drags on: Costa continues to defend his Justice minister and accuses PSD members of waging an international campaign against Portugal.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1347206619562561536

Costa accuses three Social Democrats of campaigning against Portugal

In the post cabinet meeting where Costa and his ministers discussed the possibility of more restrictive measures against Covid for next week, he was also questioned, again, by the media about the ongoing "CV scandal" regarding Portugal's pick for EU prosecutor. Costa said he has full confidence in all of his cabinet ministers and that the Justice minister did the right thing in this case. He went on to accuse some PSD members of leading an international campaign against Portugal, adding that the "CV scandal" has no political relevance and goes on to say that it's unacceptable that some PSD members use the Portuguese EU presidency to oppose the government. Costa was citing PSD MEP Paulo Rangel, former PSD cabinet member Miguel Poiares Maduro, but also PSD MP Ricardo Batista Leite who has been the PSD spokesperson of Health issues and has appeared in many TV shows outside Portugal like UK's ITV Good Morning Britain.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

67.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1.4)
11.4% Ana Gomes (-1.6)
11.4% André Ventura (+0.8 )
  4.3% Marisa Matias (-0.2)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.2)
  2.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.4)
  0.4% Tino de Rans (-0.4)

Other questions:

Q1: Should the Constitution suffer some changes?

45% Yes, some
21% Yes, but very few
16% No changes at all
11% Yes, a lot of changes
  7% Undecided

Q2: Introduction of life imprisonment?

46% Good proposal
39% Bad proposal
12% Neither good or bad
  3% Undecided

Q3: Illegalization of CHEGA?

57% Bad proposal
16% Good proposal
21% Neither good or bad
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 December 2020 and 3 January 2021. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

[Mike88]

Tonight's headlines: The Matias vs Ventura debate and the PSD crime complaint against Costa.

First the debate.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1347308291236352003

"Coward", "flip-flopper" and "swindler". Accusations ping pong between Marisa and Ventura

Marisa Matias and André Ventura faced each other, this evening, on SIC TV. The debate was really tense, with some low moments and insults from one side to the other, the moderator even said she would turn off the microphones. The debate started with Ventura accusing Matias of being undemocratic for saying she would not approve a government supported by CHEGA, and Ventura added that he would, as President, approve a BE government because he would have no choice. After that, the debate became ugly. Matias said the Ventura should explain why the police raided his office and Ventura said that that investigation was about the mayor of Lisbon, which is supported by BE. Matias started accusing Ventura of being a flip flopper, a coward and a swindler. The debate continued tense regarding subjects like taxes, the NHS and illegal immigrants, with both accusing each other of being liars and flip-floppers.

The PSD has reacted to the accusation, by Costa, that members of the party were conducting an international campaign against Portugal by presenting a crime complaint against the PM to the DA office.

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1347300827589914624

Portugal - PSD announces criminal complaint against Costa for "delusional" charge.

The government continues to say that the case has no political relevancy and the PM accused some PSD members of a campaign against Portugal. The PSD was furious with the accusation and decided to present a crime complaint against the PM saying the accusations are "delusional" and that the PM is also saying this to protect his minister adding that lying is something that doesn't bother the PM nor his cabinet minister. Presidential candidate Ana Gomes, during a debate this night with Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, said she was shocked by the PM's words and characterized them as something that Viktor Orbán would say.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential debates: Ana Gomes vs Ventura tonight on TVI

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1347507848004120576

Ana Gomes and André Ventura, today at Jornal das 8 on TVI, debating towards the Presidentials 2021. We count on you!

Today is the debate between Ana Gomes and Ventura on TVI. In yesterday's evening debate, pundits say that Marisa Matias failed to control the debate and let Ventura control a lot of the agenda in the debate. Pundits on SIC said that Matias was very uncomfortable using cases to attack Ventura and that was used by Ventura to attack her decisively. They also argue that the left has been having difficulty in confronting Ventura and only the center-right candidates and Tino de Rans were able to put Ventura uncomfortable, so far. Nonetheless, the debate drew yet another big TV audience, with almost 1.6 million viewers.

We'll see how the Gomes vs Ventura debate plays out.

[Mike88]

Possible postponement of the 2021 election? PSD opens the door to that possibility as a national lockdown in almost certain:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1347576214395957249

Covid-19: PSD opens the door to the postponement of the presidential elections if Belém candidates agree with it

The PSD leader, Rui Rio, says his party in open to talk about postponing the 24 January Presidential elections if the national lockdown, likely to start next week, lasts a full month. Rio says that it doesn't make sense if the lockdown is a full month to have an "suspension" of the lockdown just to vote. He adds that if candidates agree, the PSD will support it. He also criticized the idea of letting schools open during the possible lockdown. However, this question was raised to President Marcelo during a debate yesterday with Tino de Rans, and Marcelo said it's now impossible to postpone the elections, although some Constitutionalists say that the major parties could do a snap Constitutional change to resolve some issues.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential debates: Very tense debate between Gomes and Ventura.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1347675456435220480

Ana Gomes vs. André Ventura. Candidates challenge list of accusations and “tricks” in the fight for second place

As expected the Gomes vs Ventura debate was very tense. However, this time, and unlike Marisa Matias, Ana Gomes didn't lost her composure although it was clear she was furious with Ventura's accusations. The debate was focused only on their proposals and criticisms towards President Marcelo were very few. Gomes said she is used to deal with "devils" that want to destroy democracy, while Ventura pressed Gomes to say if she was sorry for being a member of the maoist PCTP/MRPP in the 70's when she in her 20's. Gomes said she was proud of fighting for freedom in Portugal and that she has scars to prove it. Ventura went on to accuse Gomes of being close to people who, according to him, obstructed Justice like José Sócrates and Gomes campaign manager, Paulo Pedroso. Gomes accused Ventura of vile attacks but added she would not go down to the mud pit with him.

Full debate:

Tomorrow will be the final day of one-on-one debates, with the main one between President Marcelo and Ana Gomes. Tuesday, RTP will host an all candidates debate.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

59.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.9)
  9.5% Ana Gomes (-2.6)
  9.5% André Ventura (-1.4)
  6.4% Marisa Matias (+1.9)
  4.4% João Ferreira (+1.1)
  2.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (-1.0)
  2.0% Tino de Rans (new)
  6.6% Invalid/Undecided (-1.0)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2021. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: As the vote nears, fears rise as voting for elderly people in nursing homes causes controversy.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1347621985476481026

Marcelo admits that next decree could provide for the vote of elderly people in nursing homes

As election day nears, controversy about how to vote in the elections starts to arise. This week, a controversy arose as the Electoral Commission (CNE) asked nursing homes to provide transport for elderly voters to cast a ballot in polling stations. However, this advise by the Electoral Commission was received with big criticisms, with many pundits and analysts accusing CNE of a huge lack of preparation and, also, judgement. President Marcelo is suggesting that he could issue an emergency Presidential decree to allow voting within nursing homes, and a decision could be announced in the next few days.
Plus, the certain national lockdown to start next week is creating fears that the turnout rate in the elections will be a historic low.

[Mike88]

More polling:

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

60.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-2.3)
14.8% Ana Gomes (+1.5)
10.1% André Ventura (-0.4)
  6.6% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  5.2% João Ferreira (+0.2)
  2.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (nc)
  1.0% Tino de Rans (new)

Poll conducted between 3 and 7 January 2020. Polled 2,521 voters. MoE of 1.95%.

[Mike88]

Last day of one on one debates in the 3 main networks: Debate between Ana Gomes and President Marcelo was the headline.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1348040565879926787

Presidential: Ana Gomes invokes Salgado and Marcelo replies that "not everything is worth in politics"

The Gomes vs Marcelo debate was much feistier than expected. Both candidates were quite divided in 2 main issues: CHEGA and corruption. Ana Gomes continued to press her view that we should see if CHEGA should continue legal or not, while President Marcelo said that talking about banning extremist parties only makes them stronger and act like victims, and that the best way to fight them is by ideas. Gomes said she wouldn't have accepted the Azorean solution at first and would try other options, with Marcelo saying the President cannot impose a solution and that if Ms Gomes is so upset about CHEGA, why didn't she filed a complaint with the DA office. The debate went on to talk about corruption, and Ana Gomes brought up the friendship of Marcelo with the disgraced former banker Ricardo Salgado. Marcelo was quite upset with that and said to Gomes that not everything is allowed in politics. He added that lawsuits involving big scandals went ahead during his term. Gomes also attacked Marcelo for being sometimes to close to the government and sometimes as the one that "pulls the rug" from the PM, therefore creating instability. Marcelo responded by saying that it wasn't him that said that Costa is like Viktor Orbán and that Ms Gomes has to be carefull as she is contradicting herself a lot.

Full debate:

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Official campaign period starts today, but candidates are limiting their campaigns and some have even cancelled all events.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1348150373358428160

Presidentials 2021: Elections in emergency: Marcelo's biggest opponent is abstention

The official campaign period starts today but the decision to impose a nationwide lockdown by next Wednesday is basically cancelling all of the normal campaign events. The government is preparing legislation to allow voting in nursing homes and it will be allowed to leave homes in order to vote. But, candidates are already changing their campaign strategies: Tino de Rans has cancelled all of his campaign events, André Ventura has limited all his campaign stops, President Marcelo will not campaign at all, and the other candidates are also changing their campaigns. Right now, the biggest fear is the turnout rate. It's now expected that the turnout rate will drop to a record low level. The mix of the pandemic and the forgone conclusion result, could make a lot of voters decide to skip this election, and the low turnout rate means that only the most mobilized and loyal voter bases could vote, which could put the final election result in doubt.

Nonetheless, between today and 14 January, voters can register to vote early on 17 January. It will be interesting to see if there's a big amount of voters to vote early or not.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential campaign: André Ventura faced with protests in a campaign stop in Serpa, Beja, and many protested in Lisbon against Marine Le Pen visit to support Ventura:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1348320080728190976

"We are Portuguese gypsies with great pride." Ventura received in Serpa with protests

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was received with protests from the gypsy community in Serpa. Half a hundred protesters, shouted insults and called fascist towards Ventura as he was campaigning in the village. At the same time, around 200 people in Lisbon were protesting against Marine Le Pen's visit to Portugal in support of Ventura's campaign. Le Pen's visit was expected to have a lot of events but many of them were cancelled due to the surge of Covid cases in Portugal. A rally with Le Pen was substituted with a dinner, yesterday night, where she said Ventura was a "sign from heaven". During the day, Le Pen went shopping in Cascais village, in the Portuguese Riviera. In his speech, Ventura says he wants to have more votes than all the leftwing combined and wants to provoke a "political earthquake".

[Mike88]

Lol at Ventura's wishful thinking. He'll likely take less votes than Ana Gomes, let alone than Gomes, Matias and Ferreira combined.

And Marine Le Pen's comment is stupid, but whatever.

Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. Our last elections had pretty normal turnout (low, but in line with other referenda and local elections) but they were conducted when case rates were quite low. 10,000 cases per day is indeed extremely bad in a nation of 10 million people and I've seen that apparently it's been a very sudden jump, which is particularly troubling.

[Mike88]

Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. Our last elections had pretty normal turnout (low, but in line with other referenda and local elections) but they were conducted when case rates were quite low. 10,000 cases per day is indeed extremely bad in a nation of 10 million people and I've seen that apparently it's been a very sudden jump, which is particularly troubling.

The good news so far, is that there seems to be a heavy rate of registration for early voting: Since midnight, 20,248 voters have already registered to vote early. The deadline is Thursday. In the 2019 elections, more than 56,000 people registered to vote early. It seems that in this election, that number will be easily, and widely, surpassed. I myself will also registered to vote early.

Let's see how this unfolds.

Also, hilarious moment during André Ventura's campaign event:
https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1348348990476189700

Skeleton appears on the stage while Ventura speaks. Campaign speaks of “sabotage”

While Ventura was giving a speech in Serpa's Theater hall, the curtains of the stage opened and a skeleton appeared. The moment caught Ventura by surprise and he was stunned. His campaign are saying someone tried to sabotage the event.

[Mike88]

PSD leader, Rui Rio, is in isolation after one of his deputies, Salvador Malheiro, announced he was infected with Covid-19. Mr Rio will be tested on Tuesday.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Unrelated, but I was looking at some maps and I've noticed that the district of Leiria is sizably more right-wing than all the surrounding ones and breaks the pattern of Portugal getting more left-wing the more South you go*, most notably being the only mainland district won by PSD in 2005, and having never been won by the PS. Why is that?


*well, excluding the southernmost Faro but like, you'd be hard pressed to get more left-wing than Communist-loving Alentejo.

[Mike88]

Unrelated, but I was looking at some maps and I've noticed that the district of Leiria is sizably more right-wing than all the surrounding ones and breaks the pattern of Portugal getting more left-wing the more South you go*, most notably being the only mainland district won by PSD in 2005, and having never been won by the PS. Why is that?


*well, excluding the southernmost Faro but like, you'd be hard pressed to get more left-wing than Communist-loving Alentejo.

I posted this explanation in a topic about Portuguese election maps, a few years ago:

-That region that goes from Leiria, Santarém and ends in Castelo Branco, is very "orange country". It has always been. It is a somewhat mountainous region with very small size properties. The fact that the region borders the Tagus river may be crucial and it can be, again, related with the 1975 events, as the population of that region was scared by the left parties because of the proximity from the great plains of Alentejo. Today, the region is quite poor, but it has some rich spots like Fatíma parish, where the huge Our Lady of Fátima sanctuary is located. In this parish, the center-right parties easily break 70% in almost every election.

My explanation is that as, like I wrote in the post, it borders the big plains of Alentejo, people got scared of the left and the massive expropriations of big farms in the South thus voted to the right, a trend that continues as of today. It's also a very conservative region, with the Fátima sanctuary, like I said above, although Fátima is Santarém district, but is in the border with Leiria.

In the parish map I made with the 2019 election results, you can clearly see the Leiria region, and the "wall" it almost makes between North and South:

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential campaign: Campaign update.

As of yesterday at 11:59pm, 52,994 voters had already registered to vote early. That total is higher than the total of early votes cast in the 2019 general elections. The trend from 2019 showed that as the deadline was closing in, the number of voters registering increased, so I would say the final early vote registration will be somewhere between 200,000-400,000. We'll see.

Candidates are also campaigning, but in a very low profile:

Tino de Rans
https://twitter.com/_tinoderans_/status/1348611696168898561
Tino de Rans gave blood in St. John Hospital in Porto city, this morning, and asked people to donate blood for the NHS. Talking with reporters, Tino said he will participate in the Infarmed meeting tomorrow to discuss the measures for the lockdown, the government invited all Presidential candidates, and said he still believes the elections should be postponed because of the pandemic.

Marisa Matias:
https://twitter.com/mmatias_/status/1348409093933969409
Marisa Matias opened her campaign, yesterday, with a virtual rally where she and BE leader, Catarina Martins, spoke to hundreds of supporters tuning in online. Today, she met with informal caregivers, to raise awareness of the lack of support these kind of workers have.

João Ferreira:
https://twitter.com/jferreira2021/status/1348359491092414467
The PCP candidate, João Ferreira, opened, also yesterday, his campaign with a rally in Porto city accompanied by PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa.

Ana Gomes:
https://twitter.com/antena1rtp/status/1348567214610407426
Ana Gomes gave this morning an interview to Antena 1 radio. She said she doesn't regret bring up Ricardo Salgado in the debate between her and President Marcelo adding that Marcelo is culpable of inertia regarding judicial issues as he doesn't press for speedy and tough penalties. She also said she doesn't expect dropouts from Marisa Matias or João Ferreira in her favour.

Also, Tino de Rans is, unexpectedly, involved in internal tensions within CHEGA. Several local CHEGA party branches in Leiria district, that are furious with Ventura and have drop their support for him are now supporting Tino de Rans and advising voters to vote in Tino. Social media pages of these local branches in Leiria are full with pro-Tino propaganda.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential campiagn: TV broadcasts from the candidates

Marisa Matias:

André Ventura:

Tino de Rans:

Will post the rest of TV broadcast when available. President Marcelo is the only candidate that will not present TV broadcasts.