Portuguese Election Maps

[Sir John Johns]

Reposted from the AAD as it would probably interested the great Portuguese posters here and as I want to later ask them some questions as I know next to nothing about Portugal electoral patterns.

Let’s begin with maps on the parish level on the three most recent nationwide elections. Important note: the Portuguese Interior Ministry usually includes blank and invalid votes in the calculation of the share of vote obtained by each party; here, I took the liberty to recalculate the share of vote by not taking them into account.

2014 European Parliament Election



(right-click to enlarge)

Socialist Party is in red, Portugal Alliance (right-wing coalition between the Social Democratic Party and the People’s Party) in orange, Unitary Democratic Coalition (traditional commies and their pretty irrelevant ecologist satellite) in purple, Left Bloc’s lonely parish (New Left-type leftists) in maroon, parishes where the vote didn’t take place in grey.

2015 Legislative Election



Portugal Ahead (Social Democratic Party/People’s Party joint list running only in continental Portugal) in blue, Socialist Party in red, Unitary Democratic Coalition in purple, Social Democratic Party (running alone in Madeira and the Azores) in orange, Azores Alliance (regional coalition between the People’s Party and People’s Monarchist Party) in cyan, Together for the People (Madeira local centrist party) in green. The Left Bloc placed third but failed to win a single parish.

2016 Presidential Election



Marcelo Rabelo de Sousa (candidate of the Social Democratic Party) in orange, António Sampaio da Nóvoa (one of the two independent candidates endorsed by the Socialist Party; also bizarrely endorsed by the Maoist PCTP/MRPP) in red, Marisa Matias’s (candidate of the Left Bloc) lonely parish in maroon, Edgar Silva (candidate of the Unitary Democratic Coalition) in purple, Vitorino Silva (eccentric also-ran) in yellow.

[VPH]

Is that Left Bloc parish part of Coimbra? That would make sense if it was a heavily university-centered area.

[Mike88]

Is that Left Bloc parish part of Coimbra? That would make sense if it was a heavily university-centered area.

No, the parish won by BE in the EU elections 2014 was Vila Seca e Bem da Fé, Condeixa-a-Nova municipality. The BE won there because the head candidate of BE, Marisa Matias, grew up in that parish. Actually, the parishes where the buildings of Coimbra university are located in, are very PSD leaning.

By the way, great maps. Thank you, Sir John.

[Josecardoso17]

Is that Left Bloc parish part of Coimbra? That would make sense if it was a heavily university-centered area.

Normally young students don´t vote where they study ,they vote in the parish where they reside with parents.
And Coimbra leans to PSD,and the rest was what Mike explained .
But your right ,that could be a possibilty .

[Sir John Johns]

Maps showing the results obtained in the 2015 Legislative Elections by the two rival Portuguese leftist parties.





I hope Portuguese posters could explain some of the patterns. I'm notably intrigued by the strength of the BE in Funchal and the coastal part of Algarve.

[Mike88]

I hope Portuguese posters could explain some of the patterns. I'm notably intrigued by the strength of the BE in Funchal and the coastal part of Algarve.

BE does very well in urban areas where there's a high % of middle class young voters and Funchal city fits that category. The BE attracts very young voters who sometimes vote PSD and PS. In fact, one of the curious swings in the 2015 elections, were swings, in places like Porto, Lisbon, Funchal also, from PSD/CDS to BE. This can be explain, in average, by young voters that voted PSD in 2011 who saw their incomes and their jobs security threatened during the troika years, that saw no hope in the PS and ultimately decided to vote BE. Algarve is actually a curious case. BE always had a huge voter base in that region. I think because Algarve is a very tourism base area, a lot of precarious jobs are the norm, which affect a lot of people, particularly young people. Nonetheless, the PSD is very strong in places where there are luxury resorts, mainly in the coastal line of the Algarve. PS is very strong in inner cities, just like BE.

There are other interesting voting patterns. For example, the Tagus river is, without doubt a natural and political border. Above the Tagus, CDU and BE find little support other than in some big urban areas, while the PSD and PS dominate everywhere. In here, rural areas tend to be very rightwing and urban/suburban areas more leftwing. Below the Tagus, it's the complete opposite. Urban areas tend to be more rightwing, particularly in Alentejo, while rural areas are very leftwing, mainly CDU (PCP). This can be explained by the events after 1974, during the hot summer of 1975, when the country was divided in two: The North/Center areas where many small size private land/propriety owners were scared by the Agrarian Reform; And in the South, where big size land properties were being expropriated by workers from their owners. PCP is very strong in Alentejo and also in Setúbal peninsula where a lot of factories are located.

The location of factories doesn't mean it is friendly territory for left parties. For example, there is a kinda of "rust belt" that surrounds the city of Porto that goes from Aveiro to almost Viana do Castelo. A lot of small/medium size industries like textiles and manufactures are located here. The PSD is very popular in the areas of this "rust belt". PS is also popular in places like Guimarães and Fafe, but the PSD is stronger in the cities in this area.

In the Porto Metropolitan area, the PS is very strong, particularly in Gondomar and Matosinhos. Gondomar had a lot of factories in the past, plus it has the only PCP led parish in the Porto area: São Pedro da Cova, a former mining community. Matosinhos is one of the biggest fishing harbours in Portugal, and the popularity of the PS, in this fishing community, is very strong. Porto, Gaia and Maia are much more swing cities that sometimes go to the PSD and then to the PS. The poorest places of these cities tend to be very pró-PS like, for example, Campanhã in Porto city. The more affluent areas, like the Foz do Douro, are heavily PSD places.

If you want more info, please ask.

[Sir John Johns]

Thank you very much for this very detailed and interesting reply.

I have few other questions.

- What’s the deal with Avões, Lamego. This is the only parish won by the CDU in the northern part of the country. Any reason for that?

- Why the region covering grossly northeastern Leiria, southwestern Castelo Branco and the northern fringes of Santarém is distinctly much more right-wing that the surrounding areas (this is especially noticeable on the map of the presidential election).

- The relatively strong result (1.66% in 2014 Euro, 1.11% in 2015 legislative) of the insane Maoists of the PCTP/MRPP is intriguing me, especially because the English Wikipedia page about the party seems to suggest it’s basically a sect that notably holds clandestine congresses. The PCTP/MRPP seems to have a small but very loyal base; is there any explanation about that (links to a national trade union for example?). Also, it’s weird that an explicitly Maoist and seemingly sectarian party endorsed two presidential candidates also supported by the ‘bourgeois’ PS (i.e. Alegre in 2011 and Sampaio da Nóvoa in 2016). Why did it renounced to field its own presidential candidate and instead endorsed mainstream presidential candidates?

- I know it’s not uncommon for a party to have a good result in a European election only to be crushed in the subsequent national election (see French Greens in 2009 and 2012), but the brutal surge and collapse of the MPT vote between 2014 and 2015 remains impressive. Of course the MPT vote in 2014 Euro was mostly a protest vote but, still, falling from 7.14% to 0.42% in a bit more than a year is quite a feat. I’m interested to know why the party failed so miserably to build on its Euro success.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There are other interesting voting patterns. For example, the Tagus river is, without doubt a natural and political border.

I guess this is caused by reconquista and granting big parcels to nobles?

[Mike88]

I guess this is caused by reconquista and granting big parcels to nobles?

If we go way back in history, there could be some truth on what you said, especially because almost 60% of the population live in the North/Center regions, already excluding Lisbon, but i believe the main reason is geography. The terrains in the North and Center are very mountainous, only the terrains along the Spanish borders are plains. The South region is a huge plain area, from the Tagus river to the Algarve. In fact, the red, in that map, denotes mountainous areas, while green denotes plain areas. In mountainous areas, the properties were smaller, while in plains they are bigger. Fun fact: Alentejo means "Beyond the Tagus".

Thank you very much for this very detailed and interesting reply.

I have few other questions.

- What’s the deal with Avões, Lamego. This is the only parish won by the CDU in the northern part of the country. Any reason for that?

- Why the region covering grossly northeastern Leiria, southwestern Castelo Branco and the northern fringes of Santarém is distinctly much more right-wing that the surrounding areas (this is especially noticeable on the map of the presidential election).

- The relatively strong result (1.66% in 2014 Euro, 1.11% in 2015 legislative) of the insane Maoists of the PCTP/MRPP is intriguing me, especially because the English Wikipedia page about the party seems to suggest it’s basically a sect that notably holds clandestine congresses. The PCTP/MRPP seems to have a small but very loyal base; is there any explanation about that (links to a national trade union for example?). Also, it’s weird that an explicitly Maoist and seemingly sectarian party endorsed two presidential candidates also supported by the ‘bourgeois’ PS (i.e. Alegre in 2011 and Sampaio da Nóvoa in 2016). Why did it renounced to field its own presidential candidate and instead endorsed mainstream presidential candidates?

- I know it’s not uncommon for a party to have a good result in a European election only to be crushed in the subsequent national election (see French Greens in 2009 and 2012), but the brutal surge and collapse of the MPT vote between 2014 and 2015 remains impressive. Of course the MPT vote in 2014 Euro was mostly a protest vote but, still, falling from 7.14% to 0.42% in a bit more than a year is quite a feat. I’m interested to know why the party failed so miserably to build on its Euro success.

-Avões, Lamego, is a curious case. I don't know why PCP is so strong there. The parish is quite small, 600 inhabitants, no major industries, although there was a small fireworks factory that blew up last year, so it's quite odd, especially because the parishes around it are very pró-PSD.

-That region that goes from Leiria, Santarém and ends in Castelo Branco, is very "orange country". It has always been. It is a somewhat mountainous region with very small size properties. The fact that the region borders the Tagus river may be crucial and it can be, again, related with the 1975 events, as the population of that region was scared by the left parties because of the proximity from the great plains of Alentejo. Today, the region is quite poor, but it has some rich spots like Fatíma parish, where the huge Our Lady of Fátima sanctuary is located. In this parish, the center-right parties easily break 70% in almost every election.

-The PCTP/MRPP is a weird party. Their main rivals were the Communists in the 70's. Their conflict was very hot, as there were, sometimes, fights between PCP and PCTP supporters just after the 1974 revolution. The PCP accused the PCTP of being financed by the CIA, and supported by the PS, in an effort to destroy the Communist influence after the revolution and during the "hot summer of 1975". They defend Maoism but never really explained what that means, in terms of policy. Nonetheless, they are anti-capitalism, anti-EU and anti-Euro.

The PCTP never had any good results until the 90's, when Garcia Pereira, a leftwing lawyer, became the party's candidate in all national elections. It became a small protest party, or joke party. But since 2015, the party has been in crisis. Garcia Pereira was expelled by the founder of the party, Arnaldo Matos, for being, in Matos opinion, a "closeted capitalist". Arnaldo Matos is a very controversial figure that says outrageous things time from time. For example, in the aftermath of the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015, he said "the attacks were a legitimate act of war" and that they "were made by jihadists, not Islamists, meaning fighters of the people exploited and oppressed by imperialism, namely the French one". He was also very critical of the PCP's and BE's intentions to support the PS, saying they are "whores". The PCTP got a huge hit in the 2017 local elections, falling from 0.5% in 2013 to 0.2% last year. It will be interesting to see how they will perform in 2019. In 2001 and 2006, they presented Garcia Pereira as their presidential candidate, but he failed to have any good results: 1.6% in 2001, 0.4% in 2006. They now tend to support the most popular candidates on the left, particularly PS supported candidates, because PCP and BE candidates are out of the question.

-The MPT 2014 result was a clear example of people voting for a protest candidate rather than the party. In those elections, the MPT's top candidate was António Marinho Pinto, former lawyer's bar association chairman. He ran a protest campaign against the the government, the political class, against corruption, etc. He got 7.2% of the votes, as many voters were fed up, at that time, with the two main parties. But everything crumbled quickly. He entered in a war with MPT, left the party and created his own party, the Democratic Republican Party (PDR). His party was a huge fiasco as it only got 1% in the 2015 elections, far from the 2-2.5% some polls predicted. MPT, whitout a popular leader, came back to their normal results, around 0.4%.

[Velasco]

Great maps! I like them a lot,

I know about nothing of politics in the Açores islands. It seems that PS is strong there, winning in most of the urban parishes and in many rural parishes too. Leftist parties look rather weak, but I noticed that Bloco de Esquerda performed pretty well in the parish of Rabo de Peixe in Sao Miguel island (Ribeira Grande municipality). Some professors I had went to the Açores and showed us some photographs. I vaguely remember they told that Rabo de Peixe is one of the poorest localities of Sao Miguel.  Apparently there's some fishing industry in the parish.

The Aliança won in a single parish of Sao Jorge island. One of the members of the alliance is the Monarchist Party. I am curious to know if said party is stronger in Açores than in mainland Portugal.

I guess this is caused by reconquista and granting big parcels to nobles?

If we go way back in history, there could be some truth on what you said, especially because almost 60% of the population live in the North/Center regions, already excluding Lisbon, but i believe the main reason is geography. The terrains in the North and Center are very mountainous, only the terrains along the Spanish borders are plains. The South region is a huge plain area, from the Tagus river to the Algarve. In fact, the red, in that map, denotes mountainous areas, while green denotes plain areas. In mountainous areas, the properties were smaller, while in plains they are bigger. Fun fact: Alentejo means "Beyond the Tagus".

In Spain the lands immediately south of the Tagus are the plains of La Mancha. Large parts of them were granted to nobles and military orders during the Reconquista. Further south, in the Guadalquivir Valley (Andalusia) great plots of land were granted to the nobles too. That is the remote origin of the large estates in Southern Spain and I guess that was the case in Portugal. As you say geography can determine the size and the shape of properties. However, there is a big difference in the ownership structure between the two Castiles in Spain (both are great plains in their most part). In the the Old Castile (Castilla y León) prevails small property, while in the New Castile (Castilla-La Mancha) properties are bigger in extension. Even the size of municipalities is bigger south of the Tagus river...

[Mike88]

Great maps! I like them a lot,

I know about nothing of politics in the Açores islands. It seems that PS is strong there, winning in most of the urban parishes and in many rural parishes too. Leftist parties look rather weak, but I noticed that Bloco de Esquerda performed pretty well in the parish of Rabo de Peixe in Sao Miguel island (Ribeira Grande municipality). Some professors I had went to the Açores and showed us some photographs. I vaguely remember they told that Rabo de Peixe is one of the poorest localities of Sao Miguel.  Apparently there's some fishing industry in the parish.

The Aliança won in a single parish of Sao Jorge island. One of the members of the alliance is the Monarchist Party. I am curious to know if said party is stronger in Açores than in mainland Portugal.

In Spain the lands immediately south of the Tagus are the plains of La Mancha. Large parts of them were granted to nobles and military orders during the Reconquista. Further south, in the Guadalquivir Valley (Andalusia) great plots of land were granted to the nobles too. That is the remote origin of the large estates in Southern Spain and I guess that was the case in Portugal. As you say geography can determine the size and the shape of properties. However, there is a big difference in the ownership structure between the two Castiles in Spain (both are great plains in their most part). In the the Old Castile (Castilla y León) prevails small property, while in the New Castile (Castilla-La Mancha) properties are bigger in extension. Even the size of municipalities is bigger south of the Tagus river...

Azores is quite conservative, but yes, the PS is strong there, especially since the historic PSD leader in that region, Mota Amaral, retired from regional politics. Since then, the PSD has fallen to 2nd place in all regional elections. Azores is a region very polarized between PS and PSD. In fact, the electoral system was changed in 2006 in order for the smaller parties to have more representation in the regional parliament. Rabo de Peixe is one the poorest communities in Portugal and in elections it has a very low turnout, below 30%. Only in local elections, the turnout reaches more than 50%. The BE is quite strong there, but the PSD wins big in every election. For example, in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won 74% in Rabo de Peixe. It's quite interesting that the Azores electorate is not very interested in any elections rather than local elections. For example, turnout in Azores by election:

53.2% 2017 local elections
40.8% 2016 regional elections
41.2% 2015 general elections
19.7% 2014 european elections
53.7% 2013 local elections
47.9% 2012 regional elections
40.7% 2011 general elections
56.8% 2009 local elections

It seems there is a rift between national/regional politics and the Azores electorate. That isn't the case in terms of local politics, as in here the electorate is much more engaged.

PPM only has 1 member of parliament and it's from Corvo island. The member is Paulo Estevão and he lived in Corvo for many years, being even a teacher there. Overall, in the islands, the PPM didn't reached 1%, they got 0.9%. The Azores Alliance (CDS/PPM) was a huge fiasco. CDS was to run with the PSD in Azores, but conflicts between the two regional parties made that impossible. The CDS/PPM alliance only won 3.9%, compared with the 12.1% CDS had, alone, in the 2011 elections.

In South Portugal, municipalities are also bigger, in size, compared with the North/Center. In Alentejo many properties were indeed from wealthy families before the 1974 revolution, with some having a royal history in it. But in South Spain, PP, or more recently C's, can be competitive in elections. That's not the case for PSD or CDS, as they have no chance of competing in Alentejo/Setúbal areas, only in the Algarve they are competitive.

[Horatii]

Where did you get the data from?

[Mike88]

Where did you get the data from?

After 1999, i believe he found the data from here: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/#

Before 1999, you can find data here: http://eleicoes.cne.pt/

[Sir John Johns]

2002 legislative election

Social Democratic Party 41.0%
Socialist Party 38.5%
People’s Party 08.9%
Democratic Unity Coalition 07.1%
Left Bloc 02.8%
all others under 01%

The election is noticeable for being the one with the closest margin between the PSD and the PS. It is also the worst legislative election since return of democracy for the Portuguese Communist Party/Democratic Unity Coalition.

[Mike88]

The election is noticeable for being the one with the closest margin between the PSD and the PS. It is also the worst legislative election since return of democracy for the Portuguese Communist Party/Democratic Unity Coalition.

The election wasn't the closest ever between PSD and PS. It was, in fact, the closest general election til date, but PSD and PS had two other elections where the popular vote difference was by a knight-edge: the 1994 EP election, where the PS edge out the PSD by just 0.48%, and the 2009 local elections where the PSD edge out the PS by just 1.06%.

Nonetheless, the 2002 election was a bittersweet one for the PSD. The party entered the campaign with a huge lead in the polls, following their landslide 2001 local election victory, but the election of Ferro Rodrigues, the popular minister of Social Security, as the new PS leader, hit the PSD in the polls. In fact, Ferro Rodrigues was way more popular than Durão Barroso in the personal ratings, and during the campaign the PS was able to recover a lot of ground. Because Ferro Rodrigues was very popular, particularly by left-wing voters, adding to this the fear of a PSD majority, many leftwing voters that normally voted CDU, voted PS. PCP leader, Carlos Carvalhas, leadership was also perceived as weak. A surprise in these elections was the strong result from CDS-PP, which polls predicted a result around 6%.