Impeachment Megathread Part 3

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1224417266957213697

Good God. Manufacturing criminal prosecutions as political payback. Even this is impeachable. Is there any Republican or conservative out there reading this who isn't a complete scumbag who can defend this? Or do you just not care anymore? Party over country, party over country.

[7,052,770]

In her speech before the Senate, Susan Collins (R-ME) has announced that he will vote to acquit President Trump tomorrow. 

Well she's going to lose.

As if she would have been more likely to win if she had voted to remove him lol.

Well ... yeah. She doesn't have a primary challenger.

It's a devil's dilemma for Collins either way. Vote to convict, and get primaried. Vote to acquit (as she will tomorrow), and lose (possibly) the general election.

I literally just said she doesn't have a primary challenger. You quoted the post. She will not be primaried.

I mean, she could lose the general election if Republicans just refuse to vote for her in November and hand the seat to the Democrat, but that's not likely, especially with Maine's ranked choice system giving Trumpists the ability to vote 3rd party as the first choice but still rank Collins above her Democratic opponent.

[MT Treasurer]

1. She doesn’t have a primary challenger right now, but that would obviously change fairly quickly if she voted to remove.
2. Pandering to Democrats obsessed with impeachment who are never going to vote for you regardless of what you do at the expense of alienating your base (which also happens to be fairly large in your state) would have been a mind-bogglingly dumb miscalculation.
3. Many Trumpists most likely wouldn’t have ranked Collins above her Democratic challenger even if they had voted 3rd party as the first choice because these people are incredibly uncompromising. They outright would have refused to vote for her.

[Calthrina950]

In her speech before the Senate, Susan Collins (R-ME) has announced that he will vote to acquit President Trump tomorrow. 

Well she's going to lose.

As if she would have been more likely to win if she had voted to remove him lol.

Well ... yeah. She doesn't have a primary challenger.

It's a devil's dilemma for Collins either way. Vote to convict, and get primaried. Vote to acquit (as she will tomorrow), and lose (possibly) the general election.

I literally just said she doesn't have a primary challenger. You quoted the post. She will not be primaried.

I mean, she could lose the general election if Republicans just refuse to vote for her in November and hand the seat to the Democrat, but that's not likely, especially with Maine's ranked choice system giving Trumpists the ability to vote 3rd party as the first choice but still rank Collins above her Democratic opponent.

I know what you said, and I know she's not being primaried. But that doesn't change my point. Regardless of what Collins does, she damages her position and her chances at being reelected. There are few if any alternatives that she can take to shore herself up. An example of this is the vote on witnesses. In an attempt to appease Democrats and independents, she cast a worthless vote in favor of hearing from witnesses. But now, in an attempt to appease Republicans, she is voting to acquit Trump. It's going to all damage her.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

[Calthrina950]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Subtract Jones from that list, and this would be my guess as well. Sinema's behavior tonight, with her being the only Democrat to applaud much of what Trump said-i.e. when he mentioned opportunity zones-and her demonstrated willingness to buck the party line-as seen through her voting record-suggests to me that she is leaning towards acquittal. Manchin comes from the most Trump-supportive state of any Democrat (and West Virginia will be outraged if he votes to convict), and he condemned the "partisan nature" of Trump's impeachment in his Senate speech.

Given this, and given that he knows his vote won't be critical to the final outcome, just like with Kavanaugh, he should vote to acquit. As for Jones, he knows that he is DOA in the general this fall, and he has voted much more in line with the Democratic caucus than Manchin and Sinema-much more like Tester (the only red-state Democrat voting to convict). Moreover, turnout among the Democratic base would be depressed if he voted for acquittal. Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

[Yellowhammer]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

The weasel doesn’t have a conscience.

[Calthrina950]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

The weasel doesn’t have a conscience.

I would disagree. Jones is an establishment liberal Democrat, and has never made any attempt to hide that. Voting for conviction is exactly what one would expect such a Democrat to do.

One who doesn't have a true conscience, however, is Mitt Romney. I expect him to vote for acquittal tomorrow, just like how Jeff Flake ultimately voted for Kavanaugh. Romney has shifted his positions constantly over the years, and he's not adverse to doing it again. If he votes to convict Trump-which is very unlikely, in my view-then his political career will be over.

[atheist4thecause]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

The weasel doesn’t have a conscience.

I would disagree. Jones is an establishment liberal Democrat, and has never made any attempt to hide that. Voting for conviction is exactly what one would expect such a Democrat to do.

One who doesn't have a true conscience, however, is Mitt Romney. I expect him to vote for acquittal tomorrow, just like how Jeff Flake ultimately voted for Kavanaugh. Romney has shifted his positions constantly over the years, and he's not adverse to doing it again. If he votes to convict Trump-which is very unlikely, in my view-then his political career will be over.

Romney's angle is clear: He's pro-establishment and anti-Trump. Trump changed the Republican Party, and Romney wants to keep the old guard in place. Romney doesn't like that the GOP is changing. Romney is attempting to disrupt Trump at every turn, but like you said, if it turns out that something isn't going to pass, he's not going to die on the hill most likely. Romney is going to act like he was always against the impeachment/removal, when if he was the deciding vote, he'd vote to remove Trump from office tomorrow. Romney picks his moments.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Any final vote predictions?

I'll say 56-44 to acquit (all Republicans plus Manchin, Jones, and Sinema).

Thus, I'm expecting him to vote his conscience, and to vote to convict.

The weasel doesn’t have a conscience.

I would disagree. Jones is an establishment liberal Democrat, and has never made any attempt to hide that. Voting for conviction is exactly what one would expect such a Democrat to do.

One who doesn't have a true conscience, however, is Mitt Romney. I expect him to vote for acquittal tomorrow, just like how Jeff Flake ultimately voted for Kavanaugh. Romney has shifted his positions constantly over the years, and he's not adverse to doing it again. If he votes to convict Trump-which is very unlikely, in my view-then his political career will be over.

Romney's angle is clear: He's pro-establishment and anti-Trump. Trump changed the Republican Party, and Romney wants to keep the old guard in place. Romney doesn't like that the GOP is changing. Romney is attempting to disrupt Trump at every turn, but like you said, if it turns out that something isn't going to pass, he's not going to die on the hill most likely. Romney is going to act like he was always against the impeachment/removal, when if he was the deciding vote, he'd vote to remove Trump from office tomorrow. Romney picks his moments.

Is he? 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Today is the day. The Senate will crown Trump vote whether to remove Mr. Trump around 4 p.m.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump's gamble to expose Biden payed off, the dude finished 4th in Iowa.

Biden is not done yet, and I am sure there will be better numbers for him coming up.

In which case, we have not heard the last of Burisma's HR department hiring practices for chemically dependent US lawyers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is done, she cost herself a Senate seat

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Votes on articles will be today at around 4:00pm EST. 

[emailking]

This vote should be historic regardless of what happens, but it honestly feels so anti-climatic.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Things to watch for as the last Senators deliver their remarks:

- Doug Jones (D-AL) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) are expected to speak this morning and will likely disclose their votes on the articles of impeachment.  

That's about it. 

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump's gamble to expose Biden payed off, the dude finished 4th in Iowa.

Ugh, Biden's weak performance has little to do with Ukraine. Biden's campaign lacks excitement. No surprise he doesn't do well in a caucus with less favorable demographics.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Things to watch for as the last Senators deliver their remarks:

- Doug Jones (D-AL) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) are expected to speak this morning and will likely disclose their votes on the articles of impeachment.  

That's about it. 

Sinema and Manchin then? No disclosure from them before the voting?

Trump's gamble to expose Biden payed off, the dude finished 4th in Iowa.

Ugh, Biden's weak performance has little to do with Ukraine. Biden's campaign lacks excitement. No surprise he doesn't do well in a caucus with less favorable demographics.

Sure, it had. Trump is damn good at it. "Where is Hunter?" stands right after "but her emails"

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Things to watch for as the last Senators deliver their remarks:

- Doug Jones (D-AL) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) are expected to speak this morning and will likely disclose their votes on the articles of impeachment.  

That's about it. 

Sinema and Manchin then? No disclosure from them before the voting?

Trump's gamble to expose Biden payed off, the dude finished 4th in Iowa.

Ugh, Biden's weak performance has little to do with Ukraine. Biden's campaign lacks excitement. No surprise he doesn't do well in a caucus with less favorable demographics.

Sure, it had. Trump is damn good at it. "Where is Hunter?" stands right after "but her emails"

From what I've heard? No.  But Jones' position will be a decent indicator as to how Manchin and Sinema will vote. 

[Yellowhammer]

Jones knows he’s going to get blanched, but if he votes to convict I don’t see how he’ll even be able to claim that he wants to be re-elected. He might as well campaign on a platform of losing.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From what I've heard? No.  But Jones' position will be a decent indicator as to how Manchin and Sinema will vote. 

Yes, likely. My thinking was that if all 3 of them decided to vote same, it'd perhaps look stronger if they had a "joint" statement. But it is just what I think, of course.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Jones knows he’s going to get blanched, but if he votes to convict I don’t see how he’ll even be able to claim that he wants to be re-elected. He might as well campaign on a platform of losing.

I have my own views on Doug Jones, YH, but I'll defer to you as you're a 'Bama native

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1225080178998681600?s=20

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1225079452398387201?s=20

[Gass3268]

Doug Jones will vote to convict.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1225086688667557888?s=20