VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump

[Hammy]

Snowbirds are staying closer to home, while younger folks are busy doing other things during the holiday season....

Regardless, junk poll any way you look at it....

I came here to ask why this poll is seen as nonsense, this certainly makes the most sense.

[Annatar]

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why should we be so worried about this poll? This poll is consistent with Fox polls that show Biden ahead of Trump

[TML]

Let me remind everyone that in 2017 there were some polls showing Gillespie leading Northam by as much as 8 points.

[Brittain33]

Let me remind everyone that in 2017 there were some polls showing Gillespie leading Northam by as much as 8 points.

We have to consider the possibility that Trump is getting a sizable bump from his successful negotiation of "Phase 1" with China and the disarmament of North Korea.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?

That was 7 months before the election.  The gun stuff is likely helping Trump's numbers for the time being.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

Not really buying that at all.  Odd year elections famously slow down national trends.  How does this make any more sense than saying Kentucky and Louisiana are toss ups in the presidential race based on the 2019 results?

[Brittain33]

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?

That was 7 months before the election.  The gun stuff is likely helping Trump's numbers for the time being.

I find it hard to imagine that anyone who's motivated by gun rights hasn't consistently been answering polls positively for Trump for many years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Today, Mark's the one yr anniversary in VA, where medicaid expansion has provided thousands of life savings in VA. When a Dem is sworn in, this time, gun control will pass, without McConnell and his obstruction.

GoP isnt winning VA, with Mark Warner and Biden on the ballot. VA 2 is gonna be competetive

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?

That was 7 months before the election.  The gun stuff is likely helping Trump's numbers for the time being.

I find it hard to imagine that anyone who's motivated by gun rights hasn't consistently been answering polls positively for Trump for many years.

It's possible there are a bunch of otherwise apolitical gun owners who get motivated to answer polls and go vote when the government starts going after them. A lot of people only care about politics when they're angry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There has been mass shootings all over the place and the country supports background checks for terrorists not gun owners, this is a false belief that got Garland blocked, and should of been recessed appointed

[Annatar]

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

Not really buying that at all.  Odd year elections famously slow down national trends.  How does this make any more sense than saying Kentucky and Louisiana are toss ups in the presidential race based on the 2019 results?

The governor's races in both states were pretty unique, take the margin in the LA house elections in 2019 and you get a good idea of where the state is.

[McGarnagle]

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

[We Live in Black and White]

Lmao no. Trump is not winning Virginia, period.

[NOVA Green]

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?

That was 7 months before the election.  The gun stuff is likely helping Trump's numbers for the time being.

I find it hard to imagine that anyone who's motivated by gun rights hasn't consistently been answering polls positively for Trump for many years.

It's possible there are a bunch of otherwise apolitical gun owners who get motivated to answer polls and go vote when the government starts going after them. A lot of people only care about politics when they're angry.

This is an interesting point. considering that Virginia currently is ranked #5 in terms of the total numbers of guns owned per capita, as well as 5th in the total number of guns *registered* by State.

https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-owners-percentage-of-state-populations-3325153

I am extremely skeptical of these numbers, since I am extremely positive that there are way more than 61.4k registered guns in Oregon....

There per Capita numbers are crazy, since I don't believe that Wyoming has an average of 229 guns per capita!!??!!!

Total Guns *Registered* by State:

1.) Texas---- 588.7k Guns
2.) California--- 344.6k Guns
3.) Florida---     343.3k Guns
4.) Virginia---    307.8k Guns

Still, Virginia does appear to have a significantly higher than national average gun ownership, although that could also be explained by a high % of Military and Ex-Military folks, and higher reporting requirements involved because of Federal Related jobs (meaning that folks are more likely to report weapon ownership)....

Strongly doubt this will benefit the 'Pubs in VA, since for every vote they might gain in places such as SW VA they will lose two votes in NoVA....

[Annatar]

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

That's not accurate, you have to take into account contested seats, in the contested seats the average GOP margin in the senate was 1.5% better than Trump. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191948895926063105

You can also look at the contested seats and compare their margin to 2016 which for the VA Senate in available on Daily Kos and the improvement is 1.5%.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

That's not accurate, you have to take into account contested seats, in the contested seats the average GOP margin in the senate was 1.5% better than Trump. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191948895926063105

You can also look at the contested seats and compare their margin to 2016 which for the VA Senate in available on Daily Kos and the improvement is 1.5%.

Is your suggestion that Trump is going to make marked improvements in NOVA and Richmond suburbs.

[Annatar]

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

That's not accurate, you have to take into account contested seats, in the contested seats the average GOP margin in the senate was 1.5% better than Trump. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191948895926063105

You can also look at the contested seats and compare their margin to 2016 which for the VA Senate in available on Daily Kos and the improvement is 1.5%.

Is your suggestion that Trump is going to make marked improvements in NOVA and Richmond suburbs.

Not really, again I think he can do around 1-2% better overall which is not a marked improvement and lose the sate by around 3-4%.

[Person Man]

It's crazy that Biden is doing about as well in Florida as he is in Virginia.

[slothdem]

This poll doesn't weight by education, and thus about as likely to be true as those education-unweighted polls of the midwestern states that show Biden winning by double digits. Biden would win Michigan by double digits if it was as educated as Massachusetts, and Trump would be competitive in Virginia was a middle-of-the-pack state education-wise (as opposed to being near the top) but that is not the reality with live in.

Mason-Dixon said Ralph Northam would win the governor's race by 1 point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's crazy that Biden is doing about as well in Florida as he is in Virginia.

Biden has to win the nomination first, and Y2K voters dont like hime.

[KaiserDave]

Trump will win Virginia against anyone other than Biden.

Please stay off the narcotics

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump will not win Virginia against the Bern or anyone else not named Biden. He will end up in the 43-46% range, which is not enough to flip state.

However, this poll, as many others, should make it very clear who is the best candidate to take Trump down. Yes, the election is a year away, but Biden has already been targeted with Ukraine and he's still doing better than anyone else. Bernie, Liz and Pete haven't been under the same fire from Republicans for now, which would change once they get nominated.

Big takeaway from this very poll is that NoVa moderate suburbanites want Uncle Joe.

This.

I don't believe the numbers either, and especially the differences between the candidates, but Biden's best placed to win Virginia.

[VAR]

lol

[WD]

lol

Some of the takes in this thread are so hot they could melt iron.