|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 04, 2020, 07:34:27 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print
Author Topic: VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump  (Read 1987 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,720
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 31, 2019, 08:32:10 am »

49-45 Biden/Trump
47-45 Trump/Buttigieg
48-44 Trump/Warren
51-45 Trump/Sanders

Favourables:

51-33 Biden
33-30 Buttigieg
45-48 Trump
36-51 Warren
35-52 Sanders

Quote
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from December 12 through December 16, 2019. A total of 625 registered Virginia voters were interviewed live by telephone statewide.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/biden-is-only-democrat-currently-outpolling-trump-in-virginia/article_322639e4-ac3a-562b-86b9-3c56e210e408.html
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,936


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2019, 08:37:18 am »

That favorability number for Biden is impressive.
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 535
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2019, 08:38:33 am »

Numbers seem to high for Trump, his approval in the 2018 exit polls was 43/57 in VA, how can his favourability be 45-48 in VA unless something drastic has occurred, I'm not saying the poll is wrong, just that Trump's fav/unfav numbers are hard to believe, I don't think he's at 45/48 in VA.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,175
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2019, 08:40:49 am »

LOL, no. If Tump's approval is -10 countrywide, it certainly isn't only -3 in Virginia.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,720
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2019, 08:41:30 am »

Buttigieg's numbers are impressive (especially among Whites), considering he's only at 60% name recognition.

Sanders/Warren are doing horrible, but who knows ?

Mason-Dixon has always struck me as having an anti-Socialist and R-leaning agenda, but on the other hand they were pretty good in the Governor races this year ...
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,936


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2019, 08:43:03 am »

Buttigieg's numbers are impressive (especially among Whites), considering he's only at 60% name recognition.

Sanders/Warren are doing horrible, but who knows ?

Mason-Dixon has always struck me as having an anti-Socialist and R-leaning agenda, but on the other hand they were pretty good in the Governor races this year ...

538 shows them with a mild R lean on average (R+0.7).
Logged
#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,000
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2019, 08:47:50 am »

Am I the only one who does not buy that Trump is only down 4 to Biden, despite him being at +18 according to this poll and Trump being at -3
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,936


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2019, 08:52:59 am »

Am I the only one who does not buy that Trump is only down 4 to Biden, despite him being at +18 according to this poll and Trump being at -3

You're not the only one.  They don't seem consistent.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2019, 08:53:20 am »

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,720
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2019, 08:53:29 am »

Am I the only one who does not buy that Trump is only down 4 to Biden, despite him being at +18 according to this poll and Trump being at -3

The only thing that we can clearly point out from these polls are that roughly 50% of Americans may still be walking amongst us, but can be rated braindead already from a medical point of view.
Logged
#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,000
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2019, 08:55:11 am »

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.
True, but these are seriously worrying numbers for a general regardless. Biden is our only hope.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2019, 09:01:02 am »

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.
True, but these are seriously worrying numbers for a general regardless. Biden is our only hope.

I admit that Biden is the strongest potential democratic candidate but I really doubt that he would do so much better than Sanders, sure there are some centrist voters who could defect to Trump if democrats nominate a very liberal candidate, but let's be honest people who approve Trump will vote for him and people who don't like him will for the vast majority of them vote for the democratic candidate no matter who he is.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,693
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.12, S: 0.10

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2019, 09:10:06 am »

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.
True, but these are seriously worrying numbers for a general regardless. Biden is our only hope.

I admit that Biden is the strongest potential democratic candidate but I really doubt that he would do so much better than Sanders, sure there are some centrist voters who could defect to Trump if democrats nominate a very liberal candidate, but let's be honest people who approve Trump will vote for him and people who don't like him will for the vast majority of them vote for the democratic candidate no matter who he is.

That's what drives me nuts when people act as though there's some massive pool of undecideds who will all swing one way or the other, guaranteeing victory for the Democrats or a landslide for Trump. 

You see it with impeachment polling, a major emphasis on Independents that both sides parade around as though it makes a big point.  BUT to be fair, even if their overall population might be small, these voters were a significant part of Trump's win in 2016.  And outside of ultra- partisanship, most observers can agree that 2020 will likely be another close race.  
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,693
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.12, S: 0.10

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2019, 09:12:20 am »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 09:55:48 am by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.
True, but these are seriously worrying numbers for a general regardless. Biden is our only hope.

It's a single janky poll before we've even begun approaching the meat of the campaigns.  Deep breaths.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 31, 2019, 09:36:34 am »

It's definitely a Republican friendly sample, so those Biden favorablity numbers are extra impressive.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,351
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2019, 09:39:26 am »

Looks like the good people of Virginia know the Hunter Biden stuff is total malarkey. Fantastic numbers.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2019, 09:46:47 am »

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.
True, but these are seriously worrying numbers for a general regardless. Biden is our only hope.

I admit that Biden is the strongest potential democratic candidate but I really doubt that he would do so much better than Sanders, sure there are some centrist voters who could defect to Trump if democrats nominate a very liberal candidate, but let's be honest people who approve Trump will vote for him and people who don't like him will for the vast majority of them vote for the democratic candidate no matter who he is.

That's what drives me nuts when people act as though there's some massive pool of undecideds who will all swing one way or the other, guaranteeing victory for the Democrats or a landslide for Trump. 

You see it with impeachment polling, a major emphasis on Independents that both sides parade around as though it makes a big point.  BUT to be fair, even if their overall population might be small, these voters were a significant part of Trump's win in 2016.  And outside of ultra- partisanship, most observers can agree that 2020 will likely be another close race.  

Yeah, the democratic candidate will almost certainly win at least 48% of the vote, then you have Trump who will win at least 46% of the vote, you have also the 2% of the electorate which will vote for third parties, in the end it means that only 4% of the electorate is really up for grab for each candidate.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,626
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2019, 09:59:00 am »

is this 2012
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,693
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.12, S: 0.10

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 31, 2019, 10:03:22 am »

Looks like the good people of Virginia know the Hunter Biden stuff is total malarkey. Fantastic numbers.

It's because the general public just doesn't care.

The average American can't even locate Ukraine on a map, so it makes sense that the intricacies of either Trump's quid-quo-pro or Hunter Biden's alleged shady dealings don't really resonate with the public at large.  

We here on Atlas pay attention, of course.  But nine-to-five Joe Schmo doesn't.  Consider the Clinton impeachment.   Whether you thought he should be removed from office or not, that scandal resonated with people because it was sexy, literally and figuratively.  "The POTUS running around behind his wife's back , getting "favors", and then lying about it".  That's easy to understand and digest.  

But Hunter Biden's dealings in Ukraine? Or President Trump withholding foreign aid on the condition of an investigation into a political rival? That's not "sexy" or "scandalous" enough for the general public.  
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2019, 10:03:37 am »


Yeah, at least according to this pollster. Florida and Virginia are both tossup.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2019, 10:19:51 am »

I hope they release the regional breakdown of this.
Logged
2016
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,504
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2019, 10:47:23 am »

Keep in mind: The Election is a year away and Biden's Favorables will surely come down.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,001
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2019, 10:51:22 am »

If those numbers are anywhere near accurate, we’re looking at a Republican landslide.

Hint: They’re not, and VA is going to be much more Democratic than that. Safe D, folks!
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,594
Germany



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2019, 10:56:01 am »

Trump will not win Virginia against the Bern or anyone else not named Biden. He will end up in the 43-46% range, which is not enough to flip state.

However, this poll, as many others, should make it very clear who is the best candidate to take Trump down. Yes, the election is a year away, but Biden has already been targeted with Ukraine and he's still doing better than anyone else. Bernie, Liz and Pete haven't been under the same fire from Republicans for now, which would change once they get nominated.

Big takeaway from this very poll is that NoVa moderate suburbanites want Uncle Joe.
Logged
Southern Delegate Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,298
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.88, S: -1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2019, 11:02:26 am »

Trump will win Virginia against anyone other than Biden.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines