Ohio redistricting thread

[bagelman]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

Looks compact enough. But I suppose if your goal is to help Chabot stay in power...

[bagelman]

Again I still don't understand how taking in 30k voters of Hamilton and building a concentric district around it using almost 3 whole counties isn't pretty.

It is: ignore the loud minority.

[bagelman]

Thoughts on this 8 R - 7 D OH map based on 2016 Pres results?

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how are you able to get 2016 numbers on dra?

[bagelman]

This is inspired by the Ohio lawsuit against the Census, what if Ohio must lose a seat but has to redraw temporarily old 2010 data?

[bagelman]

Ohio, my least favorite state to make maps due to it's strict redistricting rules and horrendous precient layout in Franklin County. My map is 10-5 R (2020 Prez) and two swing districts lean R, while the other two lean D. The population devation is 0.73%, just 0.02% shy of the 0.75% threshold. 😳

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42732453-536e-4cfe-a2d4-2e806a785822

What's with Summit? I thought we would finally get a district here.

[bagelman]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

They think that 2022 midterms and 2024 general will favor the GOP because of Biden's unpopularity so they decide nows the time to go all out. There's an outside chance for 14-1 with the state senate map and not likely Dems win more than 2. In 2025 they redraw for a safer gerrymander depending on what happens, if they need to go on the defensive for 2026.

[bagelman]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

They think that 2022 midterms and 2024 general will favor the GOP because of Biden's unpopularity so they decide nows the time to go all out. There's an outside chance for 14-1 with the state senate map and not likely Dems win more than 2. In 2025 they redraw for a safer gerrymander depending on what happens, if they need to go on the defensive for 2026.

You really think they are fighting for the 3rd? If they win that, the house is already R+60. Besides, this map seems really too bad that the Roberts in OHSC may strike it down.

538's PVI for the district is only D+12, which isn't a far cry from VA or NJ. It's not particularly likely but they may have delusions. Why else would the black parts of Columbus be in 4 or 15?

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Ngl that monstrosity looks like a potential dummymander in a blue wave year. 6-7 of those districts could easily go Dem in the right environment.

Brown 2018 numbers

If they passed a map like this after a Trump reelection I would be laughing my butt off. Even the 1st would be within the realm of possibility and the 10th winnable.

[bagelman]

I completely fail to see how that ghastly Summit County split, which directly affects me, is in any way acceptable for any sane independent arbitrator. So tired of Summit being chopped up in ugly ways.

[bagelman]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2e77aa2a-3e57-4946-bafc-9cd1c683e690

[bagelman]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/02/18/redistricting-lawsuit-asks-federal-judge-enact-rejected-maps/6842879001/

....This was their plan from the beginning. They're going to use federal courts to override state court rulings against their trash gerrymandered maps. They will never allow a normal map or even a lite R gerrymander to reach DeWine's desk.

[bagelman]

Given Pieman's claims above, DeWine has a strong motive for forcing through a map if true.

I can't believe DeWine is disfavored. Finally a Republican who is normal, appealing to conservatives while also not a total lunatic, and the right wants him out in favor of a total lunatic. The boomers can't keep getting away with this.

[bagelman]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

[bagelman]

In light of house results being a bright spot for Ohio dems this cycle, here's a total fantasy map. I call it "Ohio Republicans cut their losses, least change otherwise"

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f3b911b3-f034-4159-99d6-77bb29a7aeb8

[bagelman]

I hate both of them. Why do you like making OH GOP gerrymanders so much?