Ohio redistricting thread

[Tekken_Guy]

They will probably sink Cincy and make OH-13 redder. Kaptur is nearly 80, so they could just make that seat a few points redder and wait for her to retire.

I don't think they'll really touch OH-13. You can't really do much to it without making Max Miller or Dave Joyce upset. Also Democrats could agree to let Kaptur's seat get redder in exchange for keeping OH-13 a toss-up swing seat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Reminder that the 2024 Redistricting Amendment looms over anything and everything taking place right now. If that passes in the form it has been drafted, the body would immediately be constituted and remap everything within it's authority.

This comission would be more powerful I take it?

[Nyvin]

Reminder that the 2024 Redistricting Amendment looms over anything and everything taking place right now. If that passes in the form it has been drafted, the body would immediately be constituted and remap everything within it's authority.

This comission would be more powerful I take it?

More importantly is that it would remove the politicians from the commission.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reminder that the 2024 Redistricting Amendment looms over anything and everything taking place right now. If that passes in the form it has been drafted, the body would immediately be constituted and remap everything within it's authority.

This comission would be more powerful I take it?

More importantly is that it would remove the politicians from the commission.

Reminds me of the Michigan commission...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1699774694193250681?s=46

[Nyvin]

That's good, so the only redistricting win Republicans will really have in 2024 is in North Carolina, and that's probably only good for three seats max.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1699774694193250681?s=46

As I said upthread, this is all because of the provisions of the Redistricting commission ammendment.  Because there is the expectation from the plaintiffs perspective that everything will be resolved in 2025 in their favor, there is no gain from remapping now. Democrats already hold the intended maximum congressional districts,  and even if Brown loses the senate seat, he'll be carrying them all and providing a cushion.  Risk minimization is sensible here from the partisan view, though now everything is riding on the 2024 innitiative passing  

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

[Sol]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

I have no dog in that fight lol I just thought it would be funny if  NY and OH both stay the same when everybody was predicting the opposite
I would go even further than you and say that democrats are more supportive of gerrymandering than the gop now(though that wasn’t the case before). This is because they need it to get proportional maps in WI, PA etc. otherwise you get 6-2 R in WI and 10-7 R in PA. Not justifying it but just an observation

[GALeftist]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

I have no dog in that fight lol I just thought it would be funny if  NY and OH both stay the same when everybody was predicting the opposite
I would go even further than you and say that democrats are more supportive of gerrymandering than the gop now(though that wasn’t the case before). This is because they need it to get proportional maps in WI, PA etc. otherwise you get 6-2 R in WI and 10-7 R in PA. Not justifying it but just an observation

This is dumb for a lot of reasons, not least of which is that (by this metric, anyway) a "fair" Texas map would be like 22 or 23 Biden seats.

[Roll Roons]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

The NY map is extremely fair. The initial one was a disgusting gerrymander.

[wbrocks67]

Well, this is pretty much a net plus for Dems since I expected the OHGOP to gerrymander this to hell even further.

[Mr.Phips]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

The NY map is extremely fair. The initial one was a disgusting gerrymander.

The current NC map is also extremely fair.  If Republicans would just leave that one as is, I’m sure Dems would agree to leave the current NY one as is.

[Nyvin]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

The NY map is extremely fair. The initial one was a disgusting gerrymander.

The current NC map is also extremely fair.  If Republicans would just leave that one as is, I’m sure Dems would agree to leave the current NY one as is.

I would honestly really love it if "deals" like this were possible.

[Sol]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

The NY map is extremely fair. The initial one was a disgusting gerrymander.

I agree!

[Gass3268]

Yeah, I have zero moral issues redrawing NY if Republicans are going to do the same in NC.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

The NY map is extremely fair. The initial one was a disgusting gerrymander.

The current NC map is also extremely fair.  If Republicans would just leave that one as is, I’m sure Dems would agree to leave the current NY one as is.

It's a democratic gerrymander designed to achieve "proportionality". The Charlotte suburb district should be Tilt R not Likely/Safe D Obviously Republican's will be an extremely egregious gerrymander and 10 X more partisanly biased, but please get off the moral high horse and act like democrats are massively better on this issue

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

I have no dog in that fight lol I just thought it would be funny if  NY and OH both stay the same when everybody was predicting the opposite
I would go even further than you and say that democrats are more supportive of gerrymandering than the gop now(though that wasn’t the case before). This is because they need it to get proportional maps in WI, PA etc. otherwise you get 6-2 R in WI and 10-7 R in PA. Not justifying it but just an observation

This is dumb for a lot of reasons, not least of which is that (by this metric, anyway) a "fair" Texas map would be like 22 or 23 Biden seats.

Obviously it doesn't apply in all cases but it still is undeniable that a fair map in 2012 in several states would have elected more democrats that one today in that same state due to different coalitions.

[GALeftist]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

I have no dog in that fight lol I just thought it would be funny if  NY and OH both stay the same when everybody was predicting the opposite
I would go even further than you and say that democrats are more supportive of gerrymandering than the gop now(though that wasn’t the case before). This is because they need it to get proportional maps in WI, PA etc. otherwise you get 6-2 R in WI and 10-7 R in PA. Not justifying it but just an observation

This is dumb for a lot of reasons, not least of which is that (by this metric, anyway) a "fair" Texas map would be like 22 or 23 Biden seats.

Obviously it doesn't apply in all cases but it still is undeniable that a fair map in 2012 in several states would have elected more democrats that one today in that same state due to different coalitions.

I'd have to look at this more closely but I think it's a close call. The 2012 Democratic largely coalition involved extremely blue urban areas and much less red rural areas. Dems have largely traded losses in urban and rural areas for gains in suburban areas. From a political geography perspective, though, Democrats still win urban areas and still lose rural areas, but they've flipped many suburbs. I think on balance political geography is probably better for Democrats now than it was then, at least in the House.

[Oryxslayer]

Now watch the nY high court side with the gop lol

Pretty gross to see red avatars rooting for disgusting gerrymander. You are an opponent of democracy.

I have no dog in that fight lol I just thought it would be funny if  NY and OH both stay the same when everybody was predicting the opposite
I would go even further than you and say that democrats are more supportive of gerrymandering than the gop now(though that wasn’t the case before). This is because they need it to get proportional maps in WI, PA etc. otherwise you get 6-2 R in WI and 10-7 R in PA. Not justifying it but just an observation

This is dumb for a lot of reasons, not least of which is that (by this metric, anyway) a "fair" Texas map would be like 22 or 23 Biden seats.

Obviously it doesn't apply in all cases but it still is undeniable that a fair map in 2012 in several states would have elected more democrats that one today in that same state due to different coalitions.

I'd have to look at this more closely but I think it's a close call. The 2012 Democratic largely coalition involved extremely blue urban areas and much less red rural areas. Dems have largely traded losses in urban and rural areas for gains in suburban areas. From a political geography perspective, though, Democrats still win urban areas and still lose rural areas, but they've flipped many suburbs. I think on balance political geography is probably better for Democrats now than it was then, at least in the House.

Especially because Obama actually won a number of the seats designed to elect Republicans in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Jersey, etc in 2008 but said Republicans still won easily for the environment.

Which is reinforced by the 2012 Gerrymanders. The number of crossover seats is comparable to today. 13 Obama - GOP seats, many which were marginal or Sandy-related, 9 Romney - Dem seats. Obviously a number of these changes are cause of new mappers in PA, VA, MI, etc, but Romney won more districts that Obama in 2012. It helps in FPTP to have one larger concentrated area where you win, rather than two narrow losses, no matter the types of those areas.

[Pollster]

This ruling today creates a very real possibility that OH-9 is one of the banner races of the year and potentially even a possible tipping point seat. Watch for R's to go to great lengths to avoid a repeat of the Majewski disaster here. Also probably a position that Marcy Kaptur never saw herself being in at almost age 80 and nearing a tenure of ~45 years.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1701599206811853025?t=_fQuPwi5DIBzXWp1o...

The commission still has to meet, buy now just for the legislature.  This is a case where incumbent protection is almost certainly the order of the day,  since dems have not enough seats right now to actually do anything,  and there are loads of marginal seats on both sides since that's how the commission faked following the court's orders. And some of these competitive seats are puposfully nonsensical, seeking a mathematical outcome with no concern for incumbents desires.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ohio-attorney-general-rejects-language-amendment-aimed-reforming-102510233

Can he theoretically just keep rejecting the language to ensure no redistricting reform ever ends up on the ballot? If so, why didn't he do so for other amendments such as abortion.

[Skill and Chance]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ohio-attorney-general-rejects-language-amendment-aimed-reforming-102510233

Can he theoretically just keep rejecting the language to ensure no redistricting reform ever ends up on the ballot? If so, why didn't he do so for other amendments such as abortion.

I think that would lead to litigation because he has to give the petitioners instructions on how they could fix the language to make it valid.  If he repeatedly rejects it after they do that in good faith, I don't think it would fly.