Ohio redistricting thread

[GALeftist]

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

Aren't there unambiguous, constitutionally binding rules against unnecessary county-splitting?

Technically I think the amendment passed in 2018 allows Hamilton County to be split twice as long as no actual cities within it are split. A bunch of laser eyes teens on Twitter have taken this to mean that they're going to go for a 13-2 map, but I tend to think that's pretty unlikely.

[Stuart98]

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

Aren't there unambiguous, constitutionally binding rules against unnecessary county-splitting?

Technically I think the amendment passed in 2018 allows Hamilton County to be split twice as long as no actual cities within it are split. A bunch of laser eyes teens on Twitter have taken this to mean that they're going to go for a 13-2 map, but I tend to think that's pretty unlikely.

About that...

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1455910735834501128

[ibagli]

good lord

[lfromnj]

Jesus christ that is horrific and not even efficient. It also looks objectively illegal( as in a judge can't ignore it) because of the Toledo seat.

[Nyvin]

WTF is that mess?   

[Stuart98]

Jesus christ that is horrific and not even efficient. It also looks objectively illegal( as in a judge can't ignore it) because of the Toledo seat.

Also 12/13/14 due to joint county splitting.

[lfromnj]

District 1 seems to be a Biden seat and 15 is only Trump +9. Not as fast left trending though as it is more South Columbus based.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, no way the Ohio State Supreme Court would approve this map.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JacksonMartinKS/status/1455920087085559814?t=6mo6Vzf1R3zstgf...

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

That OH-1 district is horrific.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For how ugly it is it isn’t even like it’s the most effective map they could make

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is like NC where they seem to just be giving the finger to the State Supreme Court out of spite

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1455950970219745287?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1455950970219745287?s=20

This looks even more illegal.

[GALeftist]

These are revolting. Please do something about this OHSC

[BoiseBoy]

Better look:

[Stuart98]

Senate plan is still illegal, 7 and 14 both split two counties between eachother. Unless I'm mistaken, the only situation where that's allowed is if both counties have a population over 400k.

EDIT: Hmm, the state constitution isn't actually clear on this.

    (7) No two congressional districts shall share portions of the territory of more than one county, except for a county whose population exceeds four hundred thousand.

Gonna be litigated, but Republicans probably have the case that only one of the two counties has to be over 400k. OHSC will throw it out for other reasons though.

[😥]

What an awful map. Gerrymandering must be banned all across the country.

Also, give me Marcy Kaptur in next Congress or give me a death!

[lfromnj]

Like why crack the black Columbus community between the R districts instead of just you know the logical pack ?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1455967897948405762?s=20

[Nyvin]

I'd love to know how Ohio Republicans plan to explain how their maps don't "unduly favor any political party" 

That'd be an interesting court document to read.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty sure a 3-way split of Hamilton is also illegal under the new OH provision. At best for the GOP they have to significantly modify their maps.

Also WTF the GOP really tryna crack Columbus? What could go wrong?

[lfromnj]

Pretty sure a 3-way split of Hamilton is also illegal under the new OH provision. At best for the GOP they have to significantly modify their maps.

Also WTF the GOP really tryna crack Columbus? What could go wrong?

A 3 way split of Hamilton/Montgomery/Summit/Cuyahoga/Franklin are all legal.

[I’m not Stu]

Is cracking Columbus a racial gerrymander?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is cracking Columbus a racial gerrymander?

Potentially.