Ohio redistricting thread

[Horus]

West Columbus is heavily WWC, it is no surprise to see it trending right.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1453041914945720326?s=20

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1453042278038126601?s=20

[Devils30]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

How realistic is it for the OHSC to even get involved? Are they generally objective or are they full-on GOP hacks themselves?

[MaxQue]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

How realistic is it for the OHSC to even get involved? Are they generally objective or are they full-on GOP hacks themselves?

It's 4-3 GOP and the Chief Justice is GOP, but not a fan of gerrymandering.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1453041914945720326?s=20

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1453042278038126601?s=20

I wonder if the Ohio GOP will find Torie's map acceptable. I think he said he submitted it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

Steve Chabot is most at risk, as always.
After that it's hard to tell. Balderson might be at risk if he ends up with a district with a big slice of Franklin. He won by 14% in 2020, and Delaware County continues to trend Democratic.

[Gass3268]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

Steve Chabot is most at risk, as always.
After that it's hard to tell. Balderson might be at risk if he ends up with a district with a big slice of Franklin. He won by 14% in 2020, and Delaware County continues to trend Democratic.

Balderson lives in Zanesville, so we could a different district that works for him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

Steve Chabot is most at risk, as always.
After that it's hard to tell. Balderson might be at risk if he ends up with a district with a big slice of Franklin. He won by 14% in 2020, and Delaware County continues to trend Democratic.

Balderson lives in Zanesville, so we could a different district that works for him.

Yeah, I came across that fact on Wiki after posting.
The issue for Balderson is that he either runs in a district he doesn't live in and likely would be quite competitive, or in a rural seat where he lives but it's possibly quite likely he faces another incumbent with a lot of territory as well.
Regardless he should be fine in a majority of scenarios. There exists the strong possibility that he loses only his share of Franklin, in which case he's set for the decade.

[Tekken_Guy]

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

False, you can get closer to population equality by adding Madison as well. If you have Pickaway Madison and Grove city that would not flip all decade. The map is arguably  D friendly for Franklin because the Franklin cluster is underpopulated by a few dozen thousand . This is obviously because Kunze doesn't want working class exurban areas or maybe there's an R senator from Madison.
The Ohio GOP now can accordingly redraw . Pickaway +Franklin is 50k under deviation for 4 districts while Madison+ Pickaway +Franklin is only 1k under deviation.



This would be a pretty Safe R working class part of Columbus and exurban/rural areas in the South. The area of Columbus west of downtown actually seems to be trending R as well by the way.
+15.7 Trump in 2016, +15.9 Trump in 2020. More D friendly downballot relatively than the current district but still more R overall. I think Obama may have won it in 2012 narrowly funnily enough so its closer to Canton than North Columbus.

Kunze would have been term limited anyway in 2024 and Democrats could have possibly picked then . However they wanted a Safe D seat instead of an underpopulated swing seat.

There's a GOP Senator living in Madison and I believe the redistricting rules say a reasonable effort needs to be made to keep him in something resembling his current district since he won't be up for election in 2022.  Madison is currently drawn with Clark & Greene and that combo still falls within the acceptable population deviation so it's extremely unlikely that Madison will be removed from its current district to balance the population of another district.  Kunze also has to be kept reasonably within her district since she isn't up for re-election in 2022 either.

With that being said we arrive back where we started.  However, I suppose there is one other alternative which is to pair Franklin with Fairfield but that would push all 4 Franklin based districts almost to the max deviation over the ideal district size and Fairfield really needs to stay with the Southeast districts since they are all underpopulated already.

The new Kunze district is a lean R swing seat. I think Republicans wanted to put Dublin, etc. in the new Columbus D sink (SD-25) and turn SD-16 into a South Franklin and surrounding rural counties seat. But the redistricting rules not allowing them to interfere with even district seats forced them to keep the seat similar to its current in.

Kunze is term limited in 2024, but could be a strong candidate if the OH Supreme Court draws a swingy North Franklin/Delaware OH-12 for congress and Balderson doesn’t run there. The Court is R-controlled but probably not as gerrymander-happy as the legislature would be.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1453736539943424018?s=20

Hey, I personally recognize that map...

[lfromnj]

Very serious organization.

Presenting illegal maps lmao.(Easy to fix but shows how negligent they are)

[politicallefty]

Very serious organization.

Presenting illegal maps lmao.(Easy to fix but shows how negligent they are)

Illegal in what way? It's hard to tell from that angle.

I drew a map myself, but not really any better than some of the maps I've seen here. I think a fair map of Ohio has to do a few things, especially under the new criteria. Three safe seats are created for Democrats in the 3C cities (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati). The Toledo seat should take in territory along Lake Erie in what should be a highly competitive seat. There should also be a compact Akron-based seat that should also be highly competitive (maybe slightly D-leaning). Western Cuyahoga County fits nicely with Lorain County, creating a slightly D-leaning competitive seat. A somewhat more controversial decision, though very justifiable, is to put northern Franklin with Delaware County. That would create a new near-safe Democratic district. The Dayton district would remain a Lean R district (though maybe closer to Likely R than Toss-up). The last non-safe district would be the northeastern district that would end up going from Lake County to Youngstown. Democrats would've killed for that district a decade ago, but it's Likely R now. That leaves 6 mostly rural safe R districts.

All in all, I think the fairest way to draw Ohio is 6 safe R districts, 4 safe D, 1 Likely R, 1 Lean R, and 3 in the range of Tilt D or Toss-up. It makes sense both geographically and with the recent political trends of the state. Prior to Trump, the geography of Ohio was pretty good for Democrats. The recent weakness in the northeast is extremely problematic for Democrats in the state. However, Ohio is nothing close to Missouri.

[lfromnj]

Very serious organization.

Presenting illegal maps lmao.(Easy to fix but shows how negligent they are)

Illegal in what way? It's hard to tell from that angle.

I drew a map myself, but not really any better than some of the maps I've seen here. I think a fair map of Ohio has to do a few things, especially under the new criteria. Three safe seats are created for Democrats in the 3C cities (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati). The Toledo seat should take in territory along Lake Erie in what should be a highly competitive seat. There should also be a compact Akron-based seat that should also be highly competitive (maybe slightly D-leaning). Western Cuyahoga County fits nicely with Lorain County, creating a slightly D-leaning competitive seat. A somewhat more controversial decision, though very justifiable, is to put northern Franklin with Delaware County. That would create a new near-safe Democratic district. The Dayton district would remain a Lean R district (though maybe closer to Likely R than Toss-up). The last non-safe district would be the northeastern district that would end up going from Lake County to Youngstown. Democrats would've killed for that district a decade ago, but it's Likely R now. That leaves 6 mostly rural safe R districts.

All in all, I think the fairest way to draw Ohio is 6 safe R districts, 4 safe D, 1 Likely R, 1 Lean R, and 3 in the range of Tilt D or Toss-up. It makes sense both geographically and with the recent political trends of the state. Prior to Trump, the geography of Ohio was pretty good for Democrats. The recent weakness in the northeast is extremely problematic for Democrats in the state. However, Ohio is nothing close to Missouri.

It is barely illegal but the Lorain West Cuyahoga is illegal in that it doesn't have a whole county or it is not wholly within 1 county. Should be easy to fix but still hilarious. Maybe an organization that focused on the issue should actually make sure the map is legal on the stricter objective criteria?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very serious organization.

Presenting illegal maps lmao.(Easy to fix but shows how negligent they are)

Illegal in what way? It's hard to tell from that angle.

I drew a map myself, but not really any better than some of the maps I've seen here. I think a fair map of Ohio has to do a few things, especially under the new criteria. Three safe seats are created for Democrats in the 3C cities (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati). The Toledo seat should take in territory along Lake Erie in what should be a highly competitive seat. There should also be a compact Akron-based seat that should also be highly competitive (maybe slightly D-leaning). Western Cuyahoga County fits nicely with Lorain County, creating a slightly D-leaning competitive seat. A somewhat more controversial decision, though very justifiable, is to put northern Franklin with Delaware County. That would create a new near-safe Democratic district. The Dayton district would remain a Lean R district (though maybe closer to Likely R than Toss-up). The last non-safe district would be the northeastern district that would end up going from Lake County to Youngstown. Democrats would've killed for that district a decade ago, but it's Likely R now. That leaves 6 mostly rural safe R districts.

All in all, I think the fairest way to draw Ohio is 6 safe R districts, 4 safe D, 1 Likely R, 1 Lean R, and 3 in the range of Tilt D or Toss-up. It makes sense both geographically and with the recent political trends of the state. Prior to Trump, the geography of Ohio was pretty good for Democrats. The recent weakness in the northeast is extremely problematic for Democrats in the state. However, Ohio is nothing close to Missouri.

It is barely illegal but the Lorain West Cuyahoga is illegal in that it doesn't have a whole county or it is not wholly within 1 county. Should be easy to fix but still hilarious. Maybe an organization that focused on the issue should actually make sure the map is legal on the stricter objective criteria?

Doesn't the text also prevent splitting any counties twice? What can you do in Lorain?

[lfromnj]

Very serious organization.

Presenting illegal maps lmao.(Easy to fix but shows how negligent they are)

Illegal in what way? It's hard to tell from that angle.

I drew a map myself, but not really any better than some of the maps I've seen here. I think a fair map of Ohio has to do a few things, especially under the new criteria. Three safe seats are created for Democrats in the 3C cities (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati). The Toledo seat should take in territory along Lake Erie in what should be a highly competitive seat. There should also be a compact Akron-based seat that should also be highly competitive (maybe slightly D-leaning). Western Cuyahoga County fits nicely with Lorain County, creating a slightly D-leaning competitive seat. A somewhat more controversial decision, though very justifiable, is to put northern Franklin with Delaware County. That would create a new near-safe Democratic district. The Dayton district would remain a Lean R district (though maybe closer to Likely R than Toss-up). The last non-safe district would be the northeastern district that would end up going from Lake County to Youngstown. Democrats would've killed for that district a decade ago, but it's Likely R now. That leaves 6 mostly rural safe R districts.

All in all, I think the fairest way to draw Ohio is 6 safe R districts, 4 safe D, 1 Likely R, 1 Lean R, and 3 in the range of Tilt D or Toss-up. It makes sense both geographically and with the recent political trends of the state. Prior to Trump, the geography of Ohio was pretty good for Democrats. The recent weakness in the northeast is extremely problematic for Democrats in the state. However, Ohio is nothing close to Missouri.

It is barely illegal but the Lorain West Cuyahoga is illegal in that it doesn't have a whole county or it is not wholly within 1 county. Should be easy to fix but still hilarious. Maybe an organization that focused on the issue should actually make sure the map is legal on the stricter objective criteria?

Doesn't the text also prevent splitting any counties twice? What can you do in Lorain?

Cuyahoga/Summit/Hamilton/Montgomery/Franklin can all be split twice. Again this is an easy rotation to just have that district take the rest of Lorain.

[politicallefty]

It is barely illegal but the Lorain West Cuyahoga is illegal in that it doesn't have a whole county or it is not wholly within 1 county. Should be easy to fix but still hilarious. Maybe an organization that focused on the issue should actually make sure the map is legal on the stricter objective criteria?

Ah. That does seem like a fairly easy fix though. The West Cuyahoga-Lorain district is a very reasonable district that makes perfect sense. The most logical thing would be to make a small chop into Cuyahoga from one of the other districts. With some small alterations, that is probably a near-ideal map for the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow is perfect for 2 congressional districts.

[politicallefty]

Fun fact: Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow is perfect for 2 congressional districts.

That makes the other district less safe, but it does make a lot of sense. Fwiw, I noticed the same thing in terms of Cuyahoga and Lorain being just slightly larger than 2 CDs. In theory, Ohio should be a fairly easy state to draw, but Republicans are particularly obstinate considering how much they have to lose seeing their gerrymander dismantled.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow is perfect for 2 congressional districts.

That makes the other district less safe, but it does make a lot of sense. Fwiw, I noticed the same thing in terms of Cuyahoga and Lorain being just slightly larger than 2 CDs. In theory, Ohio should be a fairly easy state to draw, but Republicans are particularly obstinate considering how much they have to lose seeing their gerrymander dismantled.

How do you see a fair NE OH shaking out?

[politicallefty]

Fun fact: Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow is perfect for 2 congressional districts.

That makes the other district less safe, but it does make a lot of sense. Fwiw, I noticed the same thing in terms of Cuyahoga and Lorain being just slightly larger than 2 CDs. In theory, Ohio should be a fairly easy state to draw, but Republicans are particularly obstinate considering how much they have to lose seeing their gerrymander dismantled.

How do you see a fair NE OH shaking out?

The successor to OH-14 is pretty much boxed in on account of the plurality black Cleveland district. If there were more seats, Lake County would be a more natural fit with eastern Cuyahoga, but that's not the situation. There really isn't a better option than to put Lake with the Youngstown area (i.e. Trumbull and Mahoning Counties). The Republican trend in that part of the state makes that a Likely R district, as to opposed to a decade ago when it would've been a Likely D district on paper. That would leave a Summit-Portage-Geauga district that would be highly competitive (and would've swung to Biden compared to 2016). The West Cuyahoga-Lorain district would also be very competitive, with a slight Democratic tilt.

I mentioned a particular envisioning of a fair map just a couple posts above.

[Padfoot]

It is barely illegal but the Lorain West Cuyahoga is illegal in that it doesn't have a whole county or it is not wholly within 1 county. Should be easy to fix but still hilarious. Maybe an organization that focused on the issue should actually make sure the map is legal on the stricter objective criteria?

Ah. That does seem like a fairly easy fix though. The West Cuyahoga-Lorain district is a very reasonable district that makes perfect sense. The most logical thing would be to make a small chop into Cuyahoga from one of the other districts. With some small alterations, that is probably a near-ideal map for the state.

This one is particularly vexing to me because if you keep the city of Vermillion intact by putting the part of it that is in Lorain into the 9th along with Fulton, Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, and Erie then you can get three districts with no other county or city chops.  Then you can draw 3 more NE districts by maintaining a southwestern border of Medina, Wayne, Stark, Carrol, and Columbiana.

[GALeftist]

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, surprise surprise, the commission has officially failed to draw a map and congressional mapmaking is headed back to the legislature. What do we think is the most likely scenario now? Is there any chance that Republicans don't go for a four-year map? Will they try to split Hamilton twice and pair Cincinnati with a bunch of rurals, thereby saving Chabot? Will the Ohio Supreme Court get involved and, if so, what will they do?

Aren't there unambiguous, constitutionally binding rules against unnecessary county-splitting?

[Oryxslayer]

Well the Oh Supreme will get involved no matter what happens, given the contempt demonstrated and the current trajectory of the legislative lines.