Ohio redistricting thread

[It’s so Joever]

North and South Columbus must be in two different districts. South Columbus is more culturally like Athens Ohio than anywhere else and North Columbus should go in a district with DelCo. Anything else is a gerrymander.

[Torie]

North and South Columbus must be in two different districts. South Columbus is more culturally like Athens Ohio than anywhere else and North Columbus should go in a district with DelCo. Anything else is a gerrymander.

That is illegal under Ohio law. As much of Columbus must be in one district as is reasonably practicable.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's my fair map of Ohio. Base case is probably 9R-6D, but plausibly could get as extreme as 12R-3D or 6R-9D if there were a real landslide for one party or the other. (2016 Senate is actually 13R-2D by CD but I don't think a Republican could win the Cincinnati district any more; 2018 Senate is 6R-9D.)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/407498b4-170e-48e3-9fd6-2ed0cfefad09



Edit: Modified the border between 6 and 7 on the DRA version - doesn't affect any other districts or partisanship at all but I think is neater (keeps the Ohio Valley entirely in 6).

[Oryxslayer]

North and South Columbus must be in two different districts. South Columbus is more culturally like Athens Ohio than anywhere else and North Columbus should go in a district with DelCo. Anything else is a gerrymander.

That is illegal under Ohio law. As much of Columbus must be in one district as is reasonably practicable.

Not exactly, but close. Because Columbus is larger that 1 district it must have 1 district built out of a large part of the city. It also must be nested in the home county. However large cities can be cut and the pieces paired with other communities in the county if it better served the communities and the overall map. This provision is mainly there for Cleveland and its AA suburbs. For example, a chunk of northern (likely non-AA) Columbus can get removed to go with the suburbs and Delaware - especially since Columbus sprawls into Delaware - and the much larger rest of the city goes with the rest of the county for OH-03 or its successor.

[palandio]

"3-1-11 is not a fair map lol"

I mean based on neutral redistricting principles where dividing the CD spoils is not based on the overall percentage share of the vote between the parties. In some states to make "fair" maps as you define it, would require them to be hideously erose, if not impossible (the VRA can make it even harder in some places), even if one uses the Muon2 formula where you double the percentage points that one party has over the other in the state, so if a party has 55% of the vote statewide, they get 60% of the seats. If the party has 60% of the state vote, they get 70% of of the CD seats.

You're making several choices that put your map on the R-friendly end of the spectrum of "nice, compact" maps:
- Metro Columbus has a quite compact built-up area that would nicely fit into two districts, one urban D sink and one suburban toss-up. Combining Columbus suburbs with rurals up to the Kentucky border is a deliberate choice to favor Republicans. Also while it's clear that you have to cut off some less densely populated areas in South and West Columbus, the lines you draw, seem to closely follow partisan strength.
- Regarding the Toledo district it is clear that the further it goes west, the more R it becomes and the further it goes east, the more D. Now it's understandable that you would put the counties in the NW corner (Fulton, Williams, Defiance, Henry) with Toledo for compactness reasons, but Putnam and Van Wert clearly gravitate towards Lima and putting them with Toledo instead of Ottawa and Sandusky is clearly an R-friendly choice.
- The lines between the 11th and 15th look like they were drawn in order to put the (white) D-trending areas in Eastern Cuyahoga into the D sink while the 11th gets much further to the city to its South.

On the flip-side the Cincinatti, Columbus and Cleveland districts are absolute no-brainers, which leaves the Akron district that is probably close to the middle of the spectrum of all Akron districts, maybe slightly D-friendly.

[Nyvin]

Here's my sensible map.     Really if you just re-draw OH-4 and OH-7 (because their current borders are absurd) then the rest of the districts can mostly stay put where they are for the most part.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/d539c453-0839-4028-87d1-de093c020a16

I'd like to note that Franklin County has two municipalities on it's north border that cross over into Delaware County.   Even the current map, as bad as it is, kept most of the those two municipalities in with the Delaware district.   If a map has a portion of a district in Franklin County that goes with Delaware county and it doesn't include those two municipalities it's an eye roll.

[Sol]

North and South Columbus must be in two different districts. South Columbus is more culturally like Athens Ohio than anywhere else and North Columbus should go in a district with DelCo. Anything else is a gerrymander.

This bit is extremely tiresome.

[Stuart98]

Fair map:

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fair map:

Best Ohio map I’ve seen thus far

[Oryxslayer]

Fair map:
SNIP

I guess the map I sent in to the Ohio Commission is similar. We both kinda cut the same seat geographically, just shuffled the NE differently.



I really liked how the Grouping of OH-09, OH-11, OH-13, OH-14, and OH-15 worked in my plan - only 11 people under the necessary pop for the county grouping - and I worked with that county alignment in mind. The surplus in the Cincinnati suburbs prevented anything like true second Columbus suburb seat, and I felt it was best to pair the mid-sized central Ohio cities like Lancaster, Marion, Mansfield, and Newark.



I really dislike DRA's partisan analysis - I feel they are too overzealous declaring a seat uncompetitive -  but here's that map anyway. Competitive districts were a secondary goal that got achieved.

Link for the interested.

[Torie]

Obviously maps can be drawn more friendly to the Dems. Arguing what is “fair” and a “gerrymander” has proven to me to be almost pointless and nobody is persuaded much by the other guy. I find it more interesting to me to figure out what is legal or at least minimizes legal risks, that the party in control, or if not in control, what is most likely to happen in a deadlock, and see how close that ends up to what happens.

So, the map below is what I think is quite likely to survive a legal challenge in Ohio, without ending up giving the Dems much, except a swing seat around Akron. The map by the way, has no Columbus precincts in OH-12, so the city is split only between two CD’s. It is also illegal for OH-12 to penetrate Franklin County in two non-contiguous chunks.


Oh, and below is a screenshot of the law regarding how to deal with Columbus. One can argue communities of interest all day long too. Nobody is going to agree on that either, or what communities of interest to unite, and what not. And argue too about just what “must attempt to include a significant portion of [Columbus] in a single district” means when filing briefs with the court. But chopping Columbus between only two CD’s I think is a pretty compelling point to make before the court, as well as minimizing the size of the chop into Columbus while hewing to the balance of the law.  I appreciate the idea is to have OH-12 do the chopping into Columbus. Good luck with that while avoiding non-contiguous chops, and having Columbus chopped only once, and minimizing the size of that chop. I don’t one can get there, leaving one with only the “unduly” argument, and that I don’t think will get much traction with the court, particularly if it still does move OH-12 into at least a marginal status, or does it only by making the map somewhat of an erose mess.


Given all of the above, this is the map that I would recommend the Pubs enact as their lawyer for the Dems to challenge in court, as they most certainly will. This law is a lawyer’s dream given the vague “unduly” language. Fees, fees, and more fees.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/9014bb57-d79d-4f99-aad2-cf150a01e1e5









PS: Folks can submit their own maps to the Comission? Who knew? I guess I should submit mine! What's the link?

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

That's all well and good, but you do realize Columbus sprawls out into Delaware right? Yes the commissions legal text says that one should treat cities/municipalities cut between counties as two separate entities for the purpose of redistricting and preserving county units, but when there has to be a district that cuts into Columbus it makes sense for it to be Delaware that takes the spoils. So you are already chopping it once. Obviously this isn't what the GOP wants, but I can't see it convincing anyone else.

Also, something everyone should be aware of is that OH-03 is majority-minority (aka only plurality white) as of the 2020 census, and this can be preserved without much effort or significant gerrymandering like is done presently.

[Stuart98]

Note: Part of Columbus is also in Fairfield county.

Your lawyering over what "significant portion" means is balderdash. My 3rd district includes 63% of Columbus (more if you restrict it to the Franklin portion of the city), and that portion of it accounts for 73% of the population of my 3rd district. Under no reasonable interpretation would that not qualify as "attempting to include a significant portion of the city in a single district". Contiguity of city chops, unlike contiguity of county chops, is not at issue in the law.

[Torie]

Note: Part of Columbus is also in Fairfield county.

Your lawyering over what "significant portion" means is balderdash. My 3rd district includes 63% of Columbus (more if you restrict it to the Franklin portion of the city), and that portion of it accounts for 73% of the population of my 3rd district. Under no reasonable interpretation would that not qualify as "attempting to include a significant portion of the city in a single district". Contiguity of city chops, unlike contiguity of county chops, is not at issue in the law.

My only comment is that the state law considers a municipality in two counties to be deemed to be two municipalities for redistricting purposes.

Oh, and I did not claim that your map, which I did not look at, lacked a "significant" portion of Columbus. I have no idea what "significant" means. Does your 63% include real estate that Columbus surrounds, and exclude the bit in Delaware County? The theoretical max is  around 80% (786146/982146), the min if one evenly chopped Columbus is 40%.  Mine including surrounded real estate and excluding the Delaware County bit, is 75%. That is another issue that may well be litigated.

[Padfoot]

Here's the link to submitting maps to the redistricting commission:

https://redistricting.ohio.gov/public-input#submit-map

They are accepting both congressional and state assembly maps.  Technically the commission doesn't have the ability to draw a congressional map unless the legislature fails to pass a map with a 60% bipartisan supermajority that includes at least 50% of the Democrats by September 30th.  However, as Edna Mode once said: "Luck favors the prepared, darling."

[Torie]

Here's the link to submitting maps to the redistricting commission:

https://redistricting.ohio.gov/public-input#submit-map

They are accepting both congressional and state assembly maps.  Technically the commission doesn't have the ability to draw a congressional map unless the legislature fails to pass a map with a 60% bipartisan supermajority that includes at least 50% of the Democrats by September 30th.  However, as Edna Mode once said: "Luck favors the prepared, darling."

Map submitted. Many thanks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Submitted mine too. I tried to aim for a lot of competitive districts.

[Tekken_Guy]

Fair map:

Link?

[BoiseBoy]

The Ohio Senate Democrats Caucus have proposed the following state legislative maps:

Senate


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6fba93e6-80a9-4ae7-a08c-12d900c400b1

House


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::db79fa50-da2b-4fc6-94bd-272210363e01

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like this process is off to a great start!  Just like Virginia...

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/31/ohio-redistricting-commission-meeting-set-rules-first-deadline-maps/5648031001/

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Ohio Senate Democrats Caucus have proposed the following state legislative maps:

Senate


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6fba93e6-80a9-4ae7-a08c-12d900c400b1

House


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::db79fa50-da2b-4fc6-94bd-272210363e01

Seem like pretty fair maps to me. There are a few cases of favorable decisions being made towards Ds but nothing aggregious. Most of the uglieness comes from the fact that a lot of OH cities have horrendous borders. The biggest question when it comes to the state legistlatures is really a question of not if Democrats have a path to a majority, but how easy it will be for them to crack the GOP's supermajorities (60% is needed). In both these maps, Biden wins slightly above the needed threshold to crack the supermajority.

As a sidenote, it really makes me annoyed how hard it is to do a clean NE OH that follows the rules and keeps COIs together.

[Mr.Phips]

The Ohio Senate Democrats Caucus have proposed the following state legislative maps:

Senate


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6fba93e6-80a9-4ae7-a08c-12d900c400b1

House


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::db79fa50-da2b-4fc6-94bd-272210363e01

Seem like pretty fair maps to me. There are a few cases of favorable decisions being made towards Ds but nothing aggregious. Most of the uglieness comes from the fact that a lot of OH cities have horrendous borders. The biggest question when it comes to the state legistlatures is really a question of not if Democrats have a path to a majority, but how easy it will be for them to crack the GOP's supermajorities (60% is needed). In both these maps, Biden wins slightly above the needed threshold to crack the supermajority.

As a sidenote, it really makes me annoyed how hard it is to do a clean NE OH that follows the rules and keeps COIs together.

Would the new rules prevent Republicans from attaching the city of Dayton to blood red rurals to cheat Dems out of a Dayton based State Senate seat?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Ohio Senate Democrats Caucus have proposed the following state legislative maps:

Senate


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6fba93e6-80a9-4ae7-a08c-12d900c400b1

House


DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::db79fa50-da2b-4fc6-94bd-272210363e01

Seem like pretty fair maps to me. There are a few cases of favorable decisions being made towards Ds but nothing aggregious. Most of the uglieness comes from the fact that a lot of OH cities have horrendous borders. The biggest question when it comes to the state legistlatures is really a question of not if Democrats have a path to a majority, but how easy it will be for them to crack the GOP's supermajorities (60% is needed). In both these maps, Biden wins slightly above the needed threshold to crack the supermajority.

As a sidenote, it really makes me annoyed how hard it is to do a clean NE OH that follows the rules and keeps COIs together.

Would the new rules prevent Republicans from attaching the city of Dayton to blood red rurals to cheat Dems out of a Dayton based State Senate seat?

Technically they could do that though you’d prolly make a lean R and likely R seat rather than 2 truly safe R seats. The current configuration is pretty much this.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1435968109345533969?s=20

[Nyvin]

Here's a better picture of them -

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1435974025579216897
How can those two Dayton Senate districts be legal?   That can't possibly follow the rules, does it?