Ohio redistricting thread

[voice_of_resistance]

a fair Ohio map should be 7D-8R, with one or two of the 7 being competitive.

D seats:

1 Cincinnati
1 Columbus
2 Lakefront (Toledo/Lorain)
2 Cleveland
1 Youngstown/NE Ohio

[Oryxslayer]

a fair Ohio map should be 7D-8R, with one or two of the 7 being competitive.

D seats:

1 Cincinnati
1 Columbus
2 Lakefront (Toledo/Lorain)
2 Cleveland
1 Youngstown/NE Ohio

You can't get two D seats from Cuyahoga county anymore, the county (and D vote) has shrunk by a lot. You would need to take in some suburbs. Same with the lakeshore. A second D seat is more likely to emerge from Columbus at this point.

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah just ran with it, you may be right.

Essentially I think that the new distributions for 2018 would be

1 Cincinnati
2 Columbus (1 safe D, one tossup trending D)
3 Lakeshore + Cleveland (some arrangement of Toledo, Lorain, and Cuyahoga)
1 NE Ohio

That sounds better.

[Tintrlvr]

yeah just ran with it, you may be right.

Essentially I think that the new distributions for 2018 would be

1 Cincinnati
2 Columbus (1 safe D, one tossup trending D)
3 Lakeshore + Cleveland (some arrangement of Toledo, Lorain, and Cuyahoga)
1 NE Ohio

That sounds better.

Right. The real problematic set is two Toledo-Lakeshore Democratic districts. That's not possible. There can be one Toledo-Lakeshore district west of Lorain (Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie is almost exactly one seat), then one Lorain-Cuyahoga district and one Cuyahoga-only district (maybe dipping slightly into Summit and/or Lake but not by a material amount).

[lfromnj]

a fair Ohio map should be 7D-8R, with one or two of the 7 being competitive.

D seats:

1 Cincinnati
1 Columbus
2 Lakefront (Toledo/Lorain)
2 Cleveland
1 Youngstown/NE Ohio

You can't get two D seats from Cuyahoga county anymore, the county (and D vote) has shrunk by a lot. You would need to take in some suburbs. Same with the lakeshore. A second D seat is more likely to emerge from Columbus at this point.

Cuyahoga and Lorain should be almost exactly 2 seats in 2020 and in a fair map Lean D west and Safe D east.

Anyway I think 1 Safe D in each of the 3 big is fair,(Depending how much you consider the Cinci seat Safe) then a lean D in columbus and 2-3 competitive seats in the Lake to youngstown area.

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah just ran with it, you may be right.

Essentially I think that the new distributions for 2018 would be

1 Cincinnati
2 Columbus (1 safe D, one tossup trending D)
3 Lakeshore + Cleveland (some arrangement of Toledo, Lorain, and Cuyahoga)
1 NE Ohio

That sounds better.

Right. The real problematic set is two Toledo-Lakeshore Democratic districts. That's not possible. There can be one Toledo-Lakeshore district west of Lorain (Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie is almost exactly one seat), then one Lorain-Cuyahoga district and one Cuyahoga-only district (maybe dipping slightly into Summit and/or Lake but not by a material amount).

yeah, that sounds better. Make OH-05 the Toledo/Lakeshore seat with everything west of Lorain, and OH-09 goes into the western suburbs of Cleveland, and then OH-11 becomes everything else in Cuyahoga. The question becomes then, where does OH-13 go? It's obviously going to be the southern half of Trumbull and Mahoning combined with either Canton or Akron. Akron is bigger but allows Gonzalez to take in Canton in OH-15.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What if they did a simple chop of the county where one district is Butler+as much of Hamilton as possible and the rest is thrown in with Clermont and other counties to the east? It'd look very clean...

You mean as Krazen did?
Yeah its relatively clean although its hard to argue why a county in a corner of a state that makes up almost exactly one district should be split.

I was thinking more a simple mostly north-south line.

Might need to split Cinci which isn't legal.? Can you try making it in DRA? After finishing it also show the city lines in the map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/975f720d-88a8-472e-b993-78e7665bc3f4
this is the end result of about an hour and a half of work.

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2f7797e8-7277-4f08-af26-56e4ad8ab750

My new attempt at a fair map with 2018 estimates, irrespective of politics.

OH-01: Cincinnati, D+4 (Chabot, Wenstrup)
OH-02: Chillicothe, south-central Ohio, R+16
OH-03: Columbus, D+12 (Beatty, Stivers)
OH-04: Bellefontaine, Lima, rural Western Ohio, R+23 (Jordan, Davidson)
OH-05: Toledo, NW Ohio, D+1 (Latta, Kaptur)
OH-06: Ohio Valley, SE Ohio, R+13 (Johnson)
OH-07: Marion, Zanesville, central Ohio, R+16 (Gibbs, Balderson)
OH-08: Butler/Warren/Clermont, R+18
OH-09: Lorain, Elyria, Cleveland west suburbs, lakeshore, R+1 (Gonzalez)
OH-10: Dayton, Springfield, R+3 (Turner)
OH-11: Cleveland, Cuyahoga NE suburbs, D+29 (Fudge, Joyce)
OH-12: northern Franklin suburbs, Delaware, D+1
OH-13: Youngstown, Canton, D+0 (Ryan)
OH-14: Ashtabula, Geauga, NE Ohio, R+5
OH-15: Parma, Medina, Akron, D+2

Districts 1, 3, 5, 11, 13, and 15 all should elect Dems, with 5 being somewhat competitive.
Districts 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, and 14 are solidly R seats. 9 and 12 are tossup here. Given the amount of double-bunking, I can see Wenstrup carpetbagging to 2, Stivers to 12, Davidson to 8, and Joyce going to 14.

Thus:
Safe D:
new D rep (1), Beatty (3), Kaptur (5), Fudge (11), Ryan (13), new D rep (15)

Tossup:
Gonzalez (9), Stivers (12)

Safe R:
Wenstrup (2), Jordan (4), Johnson (6), Gibbs (7), Davidson (, Turner (10), Joyce (14)

Chabot is screwed, as is Balderson, as they have no hope of beating more-name recognition reps who have already represented the areas in the new R-friendly districts. The overall breakdown of this map is thus 7D-8R, with a possible loss of districts 5 and 13 for Dems, meaning it could get as R-friendly as 5D-10R, or as D-friendly as 9D-6R if Turner leaves and Dems win 9.

[lfromnj]

You split Cleveland(the city of like 350k people) three times, doubt thats legal and no Karptur isn't Safe shes gonna be facing Bob Latta in a Trump +4 Seat, Tilt R. Also Tim Ryans in a pure tossup seat and Ohio 15th and 9th both voted for Trump and should be Lean R(not sure about the 9th).
However the 2nd Columbus seat should be almost Safe D at a D+2 PVI as it includes the richest and hardest D trending burbs of Franklin and was probably around also Obama +5 in 2012 that makes it almost double digit Clinton and Likely D.(only thing that makes me unsure is the Licking county part trending hard D in 2012 and then returning back harder R)

[voice_of_resistance]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

[lfromnj]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.

[Nyvin]

According to the commission rules Cleveland can't be split,  and Cuyahoga county can be split up to two times.

I like the MI-13 district in that map though.

[voice_of_resistance]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.

Ah I see your point. I can definitely work on redrawing it with these criteria in mind.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.

Ah I see your point. I can definitely work on redrawing it with these criteria in mind.

Just stop. You are literally trying to draw a D gerrymander in a state where that absolutely will not happen. It is just as annoying as if I posted an R gerrymander in the CA thread, with the exception that there's even a 1 in a million chance where the commission goes wack

[Nyvin]

Considering Cincinnati can't be split either,  I'm starting to wonder if it's really possible for Republicans to gerrymander OH-1.

Since the city can't be split that means the 4 enclaves within it have to be included in OH-1 as well, and altogether their population is about 328K in 2018.   The D+22.63 PVI doesn't actually tell the whole story either since Clinton improved from Romney's numbers in 2012.   

Even if you just make a minimal connection to the eastern rural counties to make an R gerrymander, about the best you can get with whole counties is around R+2 (again, Cincinnati trended D from 2012 to 2016, so rural trend is probably close to cancelled out).   

By 2022 there's no real guarantee that R+2 will still have a Republican lean since Cincinnati is a growth hub and Clermont is the only county to the east growing.   

I actually think all this puts Republicans in a tough spot for OH-1. 

[lfromnj]

Considering Cincinnati can't be split either,  I'm starting to wonder if it's really possible for Republicans to gerrymander OH-1.

Since the city can't be split that means the 4 enclaves within it have to be included in OH-1 as well, and altogether their population is about 328K in 2018.   The D+22.63 PVI doesn't actually tell the whole story either since Clinton improved from Romney's numbers in 2012.  

Even if you just make a minimal connection to the eastern rural counties to make an R gerrymander, about the best you can get with whole counties is around R+2 (again, Cincinnati trended D from 2012 to 2016, so rural trend is probably close to cancelled out).    

By 2022 there's no real guarantee that R+2 will still have a Republican lean since Cincinnati is a growth hub and Clermont is the only county to the east growing.  

I actually think all this puts Republicans in a tough spot for OH-1.  

Did Cincinatti actually trend D? I feel like its more just the blood red burbs being much less red but still quite red? And Cincinatti the city only grew by like 1.9%, helps Ds a bit but not much.

Also lol some of the counties you included were literally tied in 2012(romney won Pike county by 1 vote) but were 67% Trump in 2016. The PVI in those counties are much more understated than Hamiltons 5 point D trend.

Edit: my bad didn't realize Pike county wasn't included but point stands.

[Nyvin]

Considering Cincinnati can't be split either,  I'm starting to wonder if it's really possible for Republicans to gerrymander OH-1.

Since the city can't be split that means the 4 enclaves within it have to be included in OH-1 as well, and altogether their population is about 328K in 2018.   The D+22.63 PVI doesn't actually tell the whole story either since Clinton improved from Romney's numbers in 2012.  

Even if you just make a minimal connection to the eastern rural counties to make an R gerrymander, about the best you can get with whole counties is around R+2 (again, Cincinnati trended D from 2012 to 2016, so rural trend is probably close to cancelled out).    

By 2022 there's no real guarantee that R+2 will still have a Republican lean since Cincinnati is a growth hub and Clermont is the only county to the east growing.  

I actually think all this puts Republicans in a tough spot for OH-1.  

Did Cincinatti actually trend D? I feel like its more just the blood red burbs being much less red but still quite red? And Cincinatti the city only grew by like 1.9%, helps Ds a bit but not much

The eastern half of the city trended D pretty sharply.   Parts of the northwest trended R slightly.

[lfromnj]

Considering Cincinnati can't be split either,  I'm starting to wonder if it's really possible for Republicans to gerrymander OH-1.

Since the city can't be split that means the 4 enclaves within it have to be included in OH-1 as well, and altogether their population is about 328K in 2018.   The D+22.63 PVI doesn't actually tell the whole story either since Clinton improved from Romney's numbers in 2012.  

Even if you just make a minimal connection to the eastern rural counties to make an R gerrymander, about the best you can get with whole counties is around R+2 (again, Cincinnati trended D from 2012 to 2016, so rural trend is probably close to cancelled out).    

By 2022 there's no real guarantee that R+2 will still have a Republican lean since Cincinnati is a growth hub and Clermont is the only county to the east growing.  

I actually think all this puts Republicans in a tough spot for OH-1.  

Did Cincinatti actually trend D? I feel like its more just the blood red burbs being much less red but still quite red? And Cincinatti the city only grew by like 1.9%, helps Ds a bit but not much

The eastern half of the city trended D pretty sharply.   Parts of the northwest trended R slightly.

Dude you do realize those rural counties went from 60% Romney to 74% Trump(2 party share). The PVI is definetely more R in 2016 than 2012. And those rural counties form 260k of the population compared to 350k for cinci. Again southern Ohio trended D in 2012 with some Ross swinging like 5 points D but then swinging like 28 points to Trump. Ross county by itself literally cancels out half of the entire NET margin vote swing In all of hamilton county.

Don't ignore trends when it doesn't favor your party.

[TJ in Oregon]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.

Ah I see your point. I can definitely work on redrawing it with these criteria in mind.

The new redistricting criteria forbid splitting Cleveland at all so it's a no go.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bringing this back up because I’d like the DRA link to this. I want to convert some of these to DistrictR so we can see 2016 voting patterns.

[LimoLiberal]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

[lfromnj]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

[LimoLiberal]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

[lfromnj]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

Hamilton is allowed to be split in this area other counties aren't
edit:  Butler should probably be allowed to be split too and Clermont maybe and not sure about Warren.



If you gonna calculate it anyway do me a favor and calculate this green district. District Looks around Trump +4.5 eyeballing it with obama 08 51.7 and Mccain 46.9 and an R+2.00 PVI when every county in this district trended D in 2012 and Scioto swung D and im pretty sure Cinci should have swung D in 2012 due to black turnout, so im eyeballing an even even PVI in 2012 which means R+4 or Clinton +2-8 which is Trump +6 and then I am probably overestimating it so its around Trump +4.5 to 5.

This district is equalized for 2018 pop.

[LimoLiberal]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

Hamilton is allowed to be split in this area other counties aren't
edit:  Butler should probably be allowed to be split too and Clermont maybe and not sure about Warren.



If you gonna calculate it anyway do me a favor and calculate this green district. District Looks around Trump +4.5 eyeballing it with obama 08 51.7 and Mccain 46.9 and an R+2.00 PVI when every county in this district trended D in 2012 and Scioto swung D and im pretty sure Cinci should have swung D in 2012 due to black turnout, so im eyeballing an even even PVI in 2012 which means R+4 or Clinton +2-8 which is Trump +6 and then I am probably overestimating it so its around Trump +4.5 to 5.

This district is equalized for 2018 pop.

Here you go:

https://districtr.org/edit/3689

Trump +4.44