Ohio redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a1814ade-915a-4a5c-bdff-e5ffa75e81aa
OH fair map I made.
I sought to draw what I thought were good CoI in NE OH. The funky lines in the Columbus were driven by the desire to have just three districts containing parts of the "doughnut" around Franklin County. Compactness was broadly favored.
The 8th is only -2 in deviation from quota, which I feel proud about.
DRA marks disproportionality as 5.95% in favor of the GOP.

A map that respects CoI probably keeps Butler and Warren together.

The way you worded it shows you agree it's not an absolute rule, no?
There are things that matter besides "Butler and Warren are together".

It’s not a rule. Just a suggestion.

I see.
What I'm concerned about is what putting Butler and Warren together might do to metro Columbus, and if I force the 8th out far enough, it might force weird lines and meandering around Metro Dayton+the 3rd and 12th.
Apologies if I sounded overly gruff.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've done some further edits. These changes impacted 8 of 15 seats, though in the case of one district, it was merely to put in one precinct split for reasons of compliance with Ohio law.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here’s a fair map I made. If there are any issues, let me know.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/398616e9-19f6-40a2-84ff-0f692af8aa7e

Those 6th and 4th districts are one-of-a-kind. Never seen such a district before.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've done some further edits. These changes impacted 8 of 15 seats, though in the case of one district, it was merely to put in one precinct split for reasons of compliance with Ohio law.

The 12th can be made more competitive if it scoops into South Franklin and drops some deep blue parts to the 3rd.

That would make both the 12th and 3rd less compact. I'm stressing compactness, less county and township splits, and other types of CoI anyway, though I have expended some effort in making the map D-friendly on the margins due to Rs having significantly more solid seats, when it does not majorly disfavor any of those three goals. My Toledo CD is an example of such a move.

this is the latest iteration.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've done some further edits. These changes impacted 8 of 15 seats, though in the case of one district, it was merely to put in one precinct split for reasons of compliance with Ohio law.

The 12th can be made more competitive if it scoops into South Franklin and drops some deep blue parts to the 3rd.

That would make both the 12th and 3rd less compact. I'm stressing compactness, less county and township splits, and other types of CoI anyway, though I have expended some effort in making the map D-friendly on the margins due to Rs having significantly more solid seats, when it does not majorly disfavor any of those three goals. My Toledo CD is an example of such a move.

this is the latest iteration.

Your OH-9 breaks the Ohio constitution because it neither contains a whole county nor is entirely contained within a single county. A compliant map that only has 2 districts in Cuyahoga and attaches Lorain cannot be drawn.

That used to be my understanding of it, but I've since heard conflicting information.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351688.msg8332637#msg8332637

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One does not know if "unduly" means  merely not to gerrymander to favor one party, or it means one, within reason, must gerrymander against a party to make the party split on the CD's in the map more reflective of the party split in the state as a whole, to wit more proportional. I believe it will more likely be the former, but in any event the Pubs need good talking points for each choice that they make that does not make the map more proportional.

The language attempt to have one whole county in a district I interpret to mean where there isn't a whole county in a CD, that there were no reasonable map alternatives available to effect it.

And of course, as to Tim's map, there are it seems reasonable alternatives, which lose the Lorrain County chop, and switch it out for OH-13 chopping into Cuyahoga taking Chagrin Falls, and OH-15 taking a nip of Carroll County. So I suspect Tim’s map in this respect is most probably illegal.*

* Tim appears to have a  metric that ignores population deviations of less than 1,000 to lose chops, but that does not comport with the law either.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/0b5ee87b-55a0-446e-b4bf-e97cc3acf349

My views in this stem from a relatively strict reading of provisions designed to keep municipal government units together, a reading of that I put into effect even at the expense of minute deviations.
That being said your reading of the county splitting law sounds reasonable and I have restored all of Lorain being in the 9th.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance the map is struck down as unconstitutional?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance the map is struck down as unconstitutional?

I'd guess there's probably like a 65% chance it gets struck down? Judging by what O'Connor has been saying

What can they do with a replacement map?

If they appoint a special master, who might it be?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The GOP is really fighting a losing battle in the Cincinnati area. They should’ve just drawn a compact Hamilton seat and not have jeopardized their entire map in the process.

It was the desire to over satisfy incumbents. A clermont + Hamilton minus the black suburbs would be pretty similar to the Pittsburgh seat and a bit more defendable.



The suburban seat here is problematic for the future as its only Trump +12 and trending left quickly but it should be fine to 2024 obviously. Still a gerrymander although one could stretch  it to reasonably compact

If there's one thing that has been repeatedly underestimated on this board, tbh, it's been the willingness of legislators to accept the desires of incumbents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The GOP is really fighting a losing battle in the Cincinnati area. They should’ve just drawn a compact Hamilton seat and not have jeopardized their entire map in the process.

It was the desire to over satisfy incumbents. A clermont + Hamilton minus the black suburbs would be pretty similar to the Pittsburgh seat and a bit more defendable.



The suburban seat here is problematic for the future as its only Trump +12 and trending left quickly but it should be fine to 2024 obviously. Still a gerrymander although one could stretch  it to reasonably compact

If there's one thing that has been repeatedly underestimated on this board, tbh, it's been the willingness of legislators to accept the desires of incumbents.

Yeah now these incumbents can cry when they don't have any seats to run in instead of just taking the above.

Steve Chabot in particular will probably be kicking himself for his not expressing more concern here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There must be one district fully contained within Hamilton county. Anything else is unacceptable.

Rs would have been better off if they just conceded this months ago. As it is, a court map for CDs is still a very real possibility.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I've finally made a map that I'm content with. 15 county splits apart from multi-county cities and very compact. It also keeps all major metro areas, Akron-Canton, Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati's suburbs, Amish communities, minority communities (two majority-minority seats) and most of Appalachian Ohio respectively together.

In addition to the COIs kept that I tried to maximize, it would fit the court's demand for partisan fairness pretty well: it goes 9-6 for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Any Democrat that wins the state carries a majority of districts; Obama would have won 8/15, and Dems won 7/15 in both their narrow GOV/AG losses in 2018, with the 8th seat being within a couple points of winning. Brown would have won 10/15

Great map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To replace the rejected Ohio map, this is my humble suggestion. Please give constructive criticism and feedback.

Might want to take a look at the county/municipality split rules in the amendment.

I'm fairly sure said post was a meme/joke, given how much it violates all legal principles.

Also, it's by John Dule. Who's among the best memers this site has.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[snip]

Thank you for your hard work!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/andy_chow/status/1493713382792388618?s=20&t=hsBRnhQp4E5z...

Since when has Faber actually involved himself in redistricting? I dunno if I recognize that name...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...
Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

Yeah, this is actually worth considering, since this map is a huge improvement over the initial one.

I'd still ask for a better district around Toledo, though. That one ought to be at least Biden+5 or so (basically giving it a neutral PVI). If the OHGOP can accept that, I say we have a deal.

I don't see how that's possible without a gerrymander itself taking it in to the Cleveland area.

What if the Toledo district basically took in as much of Lucas and Wood counties as it could, while losing everything rural west of the Lucas/Wood county line?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.

How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.

How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?

Trump + 8 and Trump + 12. Should hold for the decade but def the most vulnerable. Picks up the reddest and most "r shifting" WWC parts of the county.

Impressive, well-designed map, if I say so myself.
Have you the DRA link?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thanks!

here ya go!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cbbb147b-787c-4bac-9316-068f87f5032a

Thanks again for the link.
The efficiency of this gerrymander is impeccable. The median seat is only 2% to the right of the state, but Ds only exceed their total statewide vote % in 4 seats.

Here are the bias metrics.

Metric      Description
Proportional   27.38%   The simple deviation from proportionality using fractional seat shares
Efficiency gap   23.30%   The relative two-party difference in wasted votes
Gamma   23.10%   The fair difference in seats at the map-wide vote share
Seats bias   15.36%   Half the difference in seats at 50% vote share
Votes bias   2.40%   The excess votes required for half the seats
Partisan bias   9.91%   The difference in seats between the map-wide vote share and the symmetrical counterfactual share
Global symmetry   5.37%   The overall symmetry of the seats-votes curve
Partisan bias rating   31   The combined rating of seats bias & votes bias
Declination   50.11°   A geometric measure of packing & cracking
Mean–median   3.03%   The average vote share across all districts minus the median vote share
Turnout bias   -0.34%   The difference between the map-wide vote share and the average district share
Lopsided outcomes   8.87%   The relative two-party difference in excess vote shares
Proportional seats   6.89   The fractional Democratic seats for the map-wide vote share
Geographic seats   6.38   The fractional Democratic seats implied by county political geography
Geographic bias   3.40%   The bias due to county political geography
Map seats   2.78   The fractional Democratic seats for the map
Boundary bias   23.98%   The bias due to district lines

Impressive work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this point the primary elections are likely delayed.

They'd likely have to be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

I could see many state senators here taking a lead from DeWine on this. Does he support the effort?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

I could see many state senators here taking a lead from DeWine on this. Does he support the effort?

No, he came out against it almost immediately

Well, I don't see that happening now.
Hard to see the state leg impeaching the Chief Justice contrary to the Governor's wishes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

Fair is stretching Lorain to Lakewood to make it as D as possible.

Also it is illegal.

Some basic rules.

All counties larger than a statehouse district must be kept whole unless they are larger than a state senate district where they must then be have as many districts as possible nested within so this means Hamilton has to have another R seat unless you crazily decide to gerrymander a district through Butler or Split Cincinatti. And yes I agree the county split rules are dumb, I don't have any issue with the idea of keeping Butler whole and it can reasonably defended but the rules also prevent keeping Warren and Youngstown together in any map.

Also by the court's absurd standard even your map would be illegal because too many competitve Dem districts and no competitive R seats.

It does seem as though it's unworkable to have anything close to a dogmatic definition of proportionality while also adhering to the constitutional language.
It'd be different if Ohio had Michigan-type language.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

Fair is stretching Lorain to Lakewood to make it as D as possible.

Also it is illegal.

Some basic rules.

All counties larger than a statehouse district must be kept whole unless they are larger than a state senate district where they must then be have as many districts as possible nested within so this means Hamilton has to have another R seat unless you crazily decide to gerrymander a district through Butler or Split Cincinatti. And yes I agree the county split rules are dumb, I don't have any issue with the idea of keeping Butler whole and it can reasonably defended but the rules also prevent keeping Warren and Youngstown together in any map.

Also by the court's absurd standard even your map would be illegal because too many competitve Dem districts and no competitive R seats.

It does seem as though it's unworkable to have anything close to a dogmatic definition of proportionality while also adhering to the constitutional language.
It'd be different if Ohio had Michigan-type language.

Its even possible to have proportionality. The court then decided to make up an absurd standard of not including competitive seats with said proportionality which goes against mathematical principles..

Yeah, that's rather silly. The court ought to compromise on this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1509182216064143361

Uhhhh, doesn't this have the rather obvious problem that Ohio is only entitled to 15 representatives now but the old maps have 16 seats? Can hardly see how it would be legal to elect 16 reps.

Maybe he means a least-change map?
I dunno what a least-change map even would look like, though. Which seat gets chopped? 7?