Ohio redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

Steve Chabot is most at risk, as always.
After that it's hard to tell. Balderson might be at risk if he ends up with a district with a big slice of Franklin. He won by 14% in 2020, and Delaware County continues to trend Democratic.

Balderson lives in Zanesville, so we could a different district that works for him.

Yeah, I came across that fact on Wiki after posting.
The issue for Balderson is that he either runs in a district he doesn't live in and likely would be quite competitive, or in a rural seat where he lives but it's possibly quite likely he faces another incumbent with a lot of territory as well.
Regardless he should be fine in a majority of scenarios. There exists the strong possibility that he loses only his share of Franklin, in which case he's set for the decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very serious organization.

Presenting illegal maps lmao.(Easy to fix but shows how negligent they are)

Illegal in what way? It's hard to tell from that angle.

I drew a map myself, but not really any better than some of the maps I've seen here. I think a fair map of Ohio has to do a few things, especially under the new criteria. Three safe seats are created for Democrats in the 3C cities (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati). The Toledo seat should take in territory along Lake Erie in what should be a highly competitive seat. There should also be a compact Akron-based seat that should also be highly competitive (maybe slightly D-leaning). Western Cuyahoga County fits nicely with Lorain County, creating a slightly D-leaning competitive seat. A somewhat more controversial decision, though very justifiable, is to put northern Franklin with Delaware County. That would create a new near-safe Democratic district. The Dayton district would remain a Lean R district (though maybe closer to Likely R than Toss-up). The last non-safe district would be the northeastern district that would end up going from Lake County to Youngstown. Democrats would've killed for that district a decade ago, but it's Likely R now. That leaves 6 mostly rural safe R districts.

All in all, I think the fairest way to draw Ohio is 6 safe R districts, 4 safe D, 1 Likely R, 1 Lean R, and 3 in the range of Tilt D or Toss-up. It makes sense both geographically and with the recent political trends of the state. Prior to Trump, the geography of Ohio was pretty good for Democrats. The recent weakness in the northeast is extremely problematic for Democrats in the state. However, Ohio is nothing close to Missouri.

It is barely illegal but the Lorain West Cuyahoga is illegal in that it doesn't have a whole county or it is not wholly within 1 county. Should be easy to fix but still hilarious. Maybe an organization that focused on the issue should actually make sure the map is legal on the stricter objective criteria?

Doesn't the text also prevent splitting any counties twice? What can you do in Lorain?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow is perfect for 2 congressional districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fun fact: Franklin, Delaware, and Morrow is perfect for 2 congressional districts.

That makes the other district less safe, but it does make a lot of sense. Fwiw, I noticed the same thing in terms of Cuyahoga and Lorain being just slightly larger than 2 CDs. In theory, Ohio should be a fairly easy state to draw, but Republicans are particularly obstinate considering how much they have to lose seeing their gerrymander dismantled.

How do you see a fair NE OH shaking out?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is cracking Columbus a racial gerrymander?

Potentially.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wait I'm confused what the OH GOP's goal is with that 3. At worst it's a pretty strong likely D, prolly around Biden + 18, (Republicans aren't winning it unless its a perfect storm), without being a max pack, and they just risk a racial gerrymander and more dummymander potential.

I tried to draw as heavily GOP a seat as possible within just Franklin County in DRA, and it turns out that despite a lot of Trump turf in the SW part of the county, it's just impossible.
Gerrymander as much as you like, it's impossible to get an R-winnable seat there. It's not 2000 anymore.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

Why not both?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if the 15th is winnable for Ds. Probably not, but the  Biden % could be quite high, given how lightly populated in density terms the non-Franklin portion is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County.

It's also worth noting that Union County is also trending D quite fast and that is going to be probably almost 10% of the CD's vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if the 15th is winnable for Ds. Probably not, but the  Biden % could be quite high, given how lightly populated in density terms the non-Franklin portion is.

I edited my post - went back and calculated and it's actually marginally more D than the proposed 4th in 2020 (around Trump+5), though with less favorable trends.

Interesting.
I would not have guessed that it would be that close. Guess my gut instincts were leading me in the right direction though, as all those counties are huge on the map but have something like 20k-25k people sometimes, and I even noted as such.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Part of me actually doesn't mind (some parts of) this map. The trends in Franklin should render both seats competitive in a neutral year, if still R leaning. It tries to be an Rmander but mainly becomes a competitivemander above all else.
But the rest of the map is just ugly. (Good lord, what they did to Toledo...)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I imported the map, so below is a link to it. I checked the allow editing button. Enjoy.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7766acd-5fba-47d4-9c95-3d81b100565f

Ngl that monstrosity looks like a potential dummymander in a blue wave year. 6-7 of those districts could easily go Dem in the right environment.

Brown 2018 numbers

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If they passed a map like this after a Trump reelection I would be laughing my butt off. Even the 1st would be within the realm of possibility and the 10th winnable.

I know this is from another time and this may be lowkey wishcasting, but a Republican trifecta in Indiana drew the lines in the state post-1980 and drew a zealous gerrymander. It turned into a dummymander as 1982 was a terrible cycle for Rs and they never won a majority of seats fought on its lines. They tied in 1982 and 1984 and then lost seats slowly as the decade wore on until in 1990 they won only 2 seats out of 10.
Had Trump won re-election, this map might well have backfired a somewhat similar way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say the legislature ultimately doesn't get a map into law and the OH SC appoints a special master to draw the lines. What would the map look like?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

I found this good info for OH redistricting rules. 18 Counties can be split once and 5 counties may be split twice. But if Lorain has to be splits, oh well.  

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/ohio/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

Isn't there a part that requires either a district wholly within every county large enough for a district, or a whole county in every district that is not the former? That's what I thought was the case anyway.
(I'm aware Hamilton is the singular exception)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

I found this good info for OH redistricting rules. 18 Counties can be split once and 5 counties may be split twice. But if Lorain has to be splits, oh well. 

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/ohio/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

Isn't there a part that requires either a district wholly within every county large enough for a district, or a whole county in every district that is not the former? That's what I thought was the case anyway.
(I'm aware Hamilton is the singular exception)

There is no such rule.  Cincinatti just requres that it be included in a district which has a whole county which could be Clermont + Rurals(gerrymander) or could just all be inside Hamilton(fair)

I stand corrected then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I recreated the proposal in DRA (had to estimate OH-15 in northern Franklin). Looks like it's still 4 Dem seats, but 1 and 13 were very narrowly Biden
1: Biden +2
9: Trump +5
10: Trump +4
13: Biden +1
15: Trump +6

Median district (OH-14) is 2 points to the right of the state as a whole. Interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a1814ade-915a-4a5c-bdff-e5ffa75e81aa
OH fair map I made.
I sought to draw what I thought were good CoI in NE OH. The funky lines in the Columbus were driven by the desire to have just three districts containing parts of the "doughnut" around Franklin County. Compactness was broadly favored.
The 8th is only -2 in deviation from quota, which I feel proud about.
DRA marks disproportionality as 5.95% in favor of the GOP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice map overall, although I really dislike the placement of Union County with the rest of  OH-07. It spoliates the map for me. I presume you did it because you could not find a way to avoid another sizable county chop. I also think you violated Ohio law in two places. Can you guess as to what is in my mind here.

Lorain and Butler?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice map overall, although I really dislike the placement of Union County with the rest of  OH-07. It spoliates the map for me. I presume you did it because you could not find a way to avoid another sizable county chop. I also think you violated Ohio law in two places. Can you guess as to what is in my mind here.

Lorain and Butler?

Well that is an interesting answer. One of the names you mentioned is correct, and one is not. 

Is the other one Hancock or Columbiana?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c591ee89-44f6-44d8-b150-e61fd3970249
Here is an alternative arrangement in SW OH. The rest of the map is unchanged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c591ee89-44f6-44d8-b150-e61fd3970249
Here is an alternative arrangement in SW OH. The rest of the map is unchanged.

Now you have spread the illegality to Butler. I looked up the language:

"and the portion of any congressional district that splits a county must be contiguous within that county."

Ah, I see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a1814ade-915a-4a5c-bdff-e5ffa75e81aa
OH fair map I made.
I sought to draw what I thought were good CoI in NE OH. The funky lines in the Columbus were driven by the desire to have just three districts containing parts of the "doughnut" around Franklin County. Compactness was broadly favored.
The 8th is only -2 in deviation from quota, which I feel proud about.
DRA marks disproportionality as 5.95% in favor of the GOP.

A map that respects CoI probably keeps Butler and Warren together.

The way you worded it shows you agree it's not an absolute rule, no?
There are things that matter besides "Butler and Warren are together".