2020 Labour Leadership Election

[CumbrianLefty]

Emily Thornberry needs seven more CLP nominations with a bit over a day to go.

A nation holds its breath.......

[brucejoel99]

Emily Thornberry needs seven more CLP nominations with a bit over a day to go.

A nation holds its breath.......

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, the Cameronite socially liberal program was less a transformative overhaul of the Conservatives, more of a failed attempt to hide the weirdos and cranks with socially conservative pet issues that literally three people care about. Its one thing to campaign on popular immigration cuts (which Cameron did just as much as Boris) quite another if one of your backbenchers is launching a campaign to restore gollywogs to jam jars or trying to make Thatcher Memorial Day or whatever. I think it was SSM where he overreached though - lots of opposition came out of the woodwork to slow the legislation, which itself created resentment amongst swing voters (who supported SSM, but who often said things like "aren't there more important things right now?" Etc.); that's when ukip first started increasing its vote iirc.

[afleitch]

Meanwhile in the Scottish branch office:

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5263366/labour-glasgow-snp-online-troll-leaks/amp/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb&__twitter_impression=true

Labour insiders were apparently leaking information to a Loyalist twitter troll...or the troll is the insider.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, the Cameronite socially liberal program was less a transformative overhaul of the Conservatives, more of a failed attempt to hide the weirdos and cranks with socially conservative pet issues that literally three people care about. Its one thing to campaign on popular immigration cuts (which Cameron did just as much as Boris) quite another if one of your backbenchers is launching a campaign to restore gollywogs to jam jars or trying to make Thatcher Memorial Day or whatever. I think it was SSM where he overreached though - lots of opposition came out of the woodwork to slow the legislation, which itself created resentment amongst swing voters (who supported SSM, but who often said things like "aren't there more important things right now?" Etc.); that's when ukip first started increasing its vote iirc.

And of course it needed Labour MPs support to finally pass, something largely written out of history now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The TSSA has also gone for Starmer, so that's another crack in the Corbyn coalition amongst the unions.

[CumbrianLefty]

It appears Thornberry needs three more CLPs amongst the last dozen or so left to nominate today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The TSSA has also gone for Starmer, so that's another crack in the Corbyn coalition amongst the unions.

This is after a ballot of members. They have also endorsed Rayner for Deputy. Meanwhile, the JLM (again, after a ballot of members) have endorsed Nandy and Murray.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, the JLM (again, after a ballot of members) have endorsed Nandy and Murray.

RLB apparently got 1% in that one.

(though a lot of left wing Jews keep their distance from JLM, of course)

[parochial boy]

Labour International went Starmer/Rayner, with Starmer beating RLB by something like 54% to 45%. That was an online ballot of the full CLP membership, so indicative of... something? Although I expect that particular CLP would be unusually pro-EU, and unusually concerned about that one issue in particular (big membership in Germany, I believe)

[Blair]

TSSA reconfirms that if the race was held tomorrow Starmer would win easily.

Labour International went Starmer/Rayner, with Starmer beating RLB by something like 54% to 45%. That was an online ballot of the full CLP membership, so indicative of... something? Although I expect that particular CLP would be unusually pro-EU, and unusually concerned about that one issue in particular (big membership in Germany, I believe)

apparently it's full of cranks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, a Starmer win for the nomination vote from that organisation is... well... a surprise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, and Thornberry has narrowly failed to make the ballot.

[CumbrianLefty]

My own CLP - one of the last to nominate - backed RLB which slightly surprised me.

Its a shame about Thornberry, but her disastrously tin-eared campaign launch did not help.

[DaWN]

When you break it down, Thornberry is basically just a stereotypical Middle Class Yummy Mummy - and nobody likes Middle Class Yummy Mummies. Very unsurprised she didn't make it and equally pleased as well. Hopefully the eventual winner consigns her to the backbenches.

[thumb21]

Some maps of the CLP nominations by region:





Don't think you can take too much from it, but there are some interesting patterns nonetheless.

[brucejoel99]

Meanwhile, the JLM (again, after a ballot of members) have endorsed Nandy and Murray.

And Nandy is a big campaigner for Palestinian rights. This proves the smears wrong: the JLM are legitimately worried about defeating anti-Semitism, not about defending Israel.

Oh, and Thornberry has narrowly failed to make the ballot.

Welp, that really sucks for Thornberry & her supporters. Not only is she kicked out of the race, but she was also soooo close to making it through.

[CumbrianLefty]

In the end six CLPs did not nominate for various reasons, and one did so for leader only.

This is of course still a massive increase in the numbers nominating on both 2015 and 2016 - but maybe not all that surprising given that it now actually means something, rather than being merely symbolic as before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And Nandy is a big campaigner for Palestinian rights. This proves the smears wrong: the JLM are legitimately worried about defeating anti-Semitism, not about defending Israel.

The thing about the JLM is that it was a small legacy organisation - for many years it was quite literally run out of the late Reg Freeson's front room - with a membership comprised almost entirely of elderly nostalgics until a couple of years ago. It's acquired the profile and sizeable membership (for an organisation of that sort) that it now has became it now has a very clear purpose.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't think you can take too much from it, but there are some interesting patterns nonetheless.

Surprisingly weak for Long Bailey in Wales (especially; hardly anything there) and in Yorkshire; usually these would be above average for a designated Left candidate. Nandy's pattern is interesting, because there is a fairly clear one but it is new.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not a single nomination for Thornberry in Yorkshire has to sting, given how close she got.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

When you break it down, Thornberry is basically just a stereotypical Middle Class Yummy Mummy - and nobody likes Middle Class Yummy Mummies. Very unsurprised she didn't make it and equally pleased as well. Hopefully the eventual winner consigns her to the backbenches.

She's effective and, to me at least, likable. But it's unfortunately obvious that she's not the direction in which the party needs to go.

[Blair]

When you break it down, Thornberry is basically just a stereotypical Middle Class Yummy Mummy - and nobody likes Middle Class Yummy Mummies. Very unsurprised she didn't make it and equally pleased as well. Hopefully the eventual winner consigns her to the backbenches.

I'm not sure she's what I'd describe as a middle class yummy mummy?

A chain smoking, mouthy ex-barrister who threatens to sue ex-colleagues for Libel doesn't match that description as much as other MPs do.

[Blair]

Don't think you can take too much from it, but there are some interesting patterns nonetheless.

Surprisingly weak for Long Bailey in Wales (especially; hardly anything there) and in Yorkshire; usually these would be above average for a designated Left candidate. Nandy's pattern is interesting, because there is a fairly clear one but it is new.

From my scanning the Nandy seats fell into three categories 1.) Bastions of the Progress Right 2.) Seats in strong leave areas with a corbynsceptic tint 3.) MP is backing Nandy.

Would be interested what other people's are?

[DaWN]

When you break it down, Thornberry is basically just a stereotypical Middle Class Yummy Mummy - and nobody likes Middle Class Yummy Mummies. Very unsurprised she didn't make it and equally pleased as well. Hopefully the eventual winner consigns her to the backbenches.

I'm not sure she's what I'd describe as a middle class yummy mummy?

A chain smoking, mouthy ex-barrister who threatens to sue ex-colleagues for Libel doesn't match that description as much as other MPs do.

A annoying patronising snob with an infinitely high regard for herself? Certainly rings a bell. I've never seen anything in her all that impressive anyway.