2020 Labour Leadership Election

[Pericles]

The Tories need to lose 40 seats to lose their majority. Their 40th most vulnerable seat-Stroud-needs a 2.91% swing to flip. Given the volatility of British politics in recent years, and that it was more a rejection of Corbyn than an endorsement of Boris in 2019, a Tory win in 2024 is not inevitable.

[Walmart_shopper]

Those survey figures make sense; we know that Starmer is well-liked by Labour members, we know that a certain proportion will back a cheese sandwich if said sandwich is seen as the 'official' Left candidate, we know that Thornberry is respected but not liked, that Cooper is seen as yesterday's woman, and the rest is basically name recognition.

Alternatively, vigorously opposing small-minded Brexiteerism wasn't and isn't just a flash in the Labour pan but is actually at the heart of the party's political identity. I think an understated number of Labour people feel that Corbyn's weird fence-straddling on the issue not only didn't help win many Leave constituencies, but it didn't help prevent Britain from trading its global standing and societal openness for atavistic Brexit knuckle-dragging. The idea that this is primarily a Blairite/Corbynite civil war is actually overstated, because the Blairites lost and lost badly and the party is a Corbynite party. For many Starmer presents an opportunity to do Corbynism in a competitive, credible, and more firmly European way. Frankly, they seem exactly right about that.

Bless.

It was Labour, particularly the left of the party, that opposed the European Community in the first place. It was the Tories from Heath onwards who were fans. Being pro-EU was quintessentially a Blairite/New Labour project, it has nothing to do with the traditional left in this country.

Besides I have bad news for you, Starmer said today Remain is dead.

You may be one of the few who sees the Brexit issue solely within the bounds of formal EU membership. I, and I suspect the half of the UK that opposes Brexit, does not. The question now is not whether the UK should remain an EU member but rather whether the same xenophobia and atavistic smallness, the same mindless populism, that launched the whole Brexit process should dominate the public discourse in Britain. I assure you that's very much an open and central question in Labour and throughout the country.

[CumbrianLefty]

That is a completely different question, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

Those survey figures make sense; we know that Starmer is well-liked by Labour members, we know that a certain proportion will back a cheese sandwich if said sandwich is seen as the 'official' Left candidate, we know that Thornberry is respected but not liked, that Cooper is seen as yesterday's woman, and the rest is basically name recognition.

Alternatively, vigorously opposing small-minded Brexiteerism wasn't and isn't just a flash in the Labour pan but is actually at the heart of the party's political identity. I think an understated number of Labour people feel that Corbyn's weird fence-straddling on the issue not only didn't help win many Leave constituencies, but it didn't help prevent Britain from trading its global standing and societal openness for atavistic Brexit knuckle-dragging. The idea that this is primarily a Blairite/Corbynite civil war is actually overstated, because the Blairites lost and lost badly and the party is a Corbynite party. For many Starmer presents an opportunity to do Corbynism in a competitive, credible, and more firmly European way. Frankly, they seem exactly right about that.

Bless.

It was Labour, particularly the left of the party, that opposed the European Community in the first place. It was the Tories from Heath onwards who were fans. Being pro-EU was quintessentially a Blairite/New Labour project, it has nothing to do with the traditional left in this country.

Besides I have bad news for you, Starmer said today Remain is dead.

Even the LibDems aren't *that* likely to be running on a "rejoin" platform come 2024.

And it's equally insane to think that Labour will simply be running on Corbynism minus the Brexit muddle. Brexit will haunt British politics for decades and even if we aren't talking about Rejoin we will still be talking about questions very close to the heart of the Brexit debate.

[Walmart_shopper]

That is a completely different question, though.

Alternatively, vigorously opposing small-minded Brexiteerism wasn't and isn't just a flash in the Labour pan but is actually at the heart of the party's political identity.

That's what I wrote. And that's the question central to the Labour leadership contest this year and British politics for years come. It's absolutely the same thing we have been debating for years already, albeit now we'll be doing so with the UK (or what's left of it) out and not in.

[urutzizu]

While we are one the Subject, Jess Philips implicitly backtracked on her rejoin stance in her comments to the Independent today.

People are asking me if I’ll lead the campaign to rejoin the EU. We haven’t even left yet! The honest answer is that I don’t know what the future will hold, but we must accept the result, move our country forward and hold Boris Johnson to account. I can’t see a campaign to rejoin winning support in the next Labour manifesto.

Labour should always be an outward-facing and a pro-European party, but we know in our heads as well as our hearts that our failure to win the election means the terms of the debate have changed.

Which would seem to be a stance similar to that Walmartguy is arguing.

Being pro-EU was quintessentially a Blairite/New Labour project, it has nothing to do with the traditional left in this country.

Not entirely true - the real change came in 1988 after Delors started to shift the EC to something more than just a Neoliberal Trade Bloc- Labour’s traditional hostility to Europe was based on a suspicion that the whole project was constructed along free market, anti-union lines. It was Delors who convinced them otherwise.

Less than two weeks before Thatchers infamous Bruges speech, Delors addressed the TUC in Bournemouth. He made the case for collective bargaining at European level and promised to put social protection at the heart of his European project- causing of course the furious reaction of the British Right, expressed though the Bruges speech. Labour embraced Europe and a model on the continent, that they saw as superior. The Conservatives grew ever more suspicious, starting with the social chapter opt-out.

The EU debate ends of course - but pro-europeanism is more than that. The Choice for Britain now is whether it sees itself culturally closer to the United States, to the race to bottom policy, to the jingoistic militarism, which it once again expressed just recently - or whether it wants to continue to align itself with European Values that I would argue are the antithesis to that. Labour must obviously not go down the #rejoin path, but that does not mean it should not continue to argue a pro-european case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

- Nandy is lightweight and "sounds dumb"

Which is sure to be a major handicap against the famously articulate Boris Johnson.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Official Timetable

Tuesday 7 January: Nominations open from MPs and MEPs.
Monday 13 January: Nominations from MPs and MEPs closes at 2.30pm.
Tuesday 14 January: Registered supporters applications open at 5pm.
Thursday 16 January: Registered supporters applications close at 5pm.
Wednesday 15 January: Second stage of nominations from constituency Labour parties and affiliates opens.
Monday 20 January: Freeze date for eligibility for new members and affiliated supporters, closes at 5pm.
Friday 14 February: Close of CLP and affiliate nominations.
Friday 21 February: Ballot opens.
Thursday 2 April: Ballot closes at 12pm.
Saturday 4 April: Special conference to announce results.

To sign up as an RS one must pay £25, which, for the record, is more than you would pay if you were to join certain affiliates or the party itself for the requisite few months.

[parochial boy]

- Nandy is lightweight and "sounds dumb"

Which is sure to be a major handicap against the famously articulate Boris Johnson.

Lisa Nandy is brown, you see

[Blair]

Those survey figures make sense; we know that Starmer is well-liked by Labour members, we know that a certain proportion will back a cheese sandwich if said sandwich is seen as the 'official' Left candidate, we know that Thornberry is respected but not liked, that Cooper is seen as yesterday's woman, and the rest is basically name recognition.

Alternatively, vigorously opposing small-minded Brexiteerism wasn't and isn't just a flash in the Labour pan but is actually at the heart of the party's political identity. I think an understated number of Labour people feel that Corbyn's weird fence-straddling on the issue not only didn't help win many Leave constituencies, but it didn't help prevent Britain from trading its global standing and societal openness for atavistic Brexit knuckle-dragging. The idea that this is primarily a Blairite/Corbynite civil war is actually overstated, because the Blairites lost and lost badly and the party is a Corbynite party. For many Starmer presents an opportunity to do Corbynism in a competitive, credible, and more firmly European way. Frankly, they seem exactly right about that.

Bless.

It was Labour, particularly the left of the party, that opposed the European Community in the first place. It was the Tories from Heath onwards who were fans. Being pro-EU was quintessentially a Blairite/New Labour project, it has nothing to do with the traditional left in this country.

Besides I have bad news for you, Starmer said today Remain is dead.

Er this is a bit misleading.

Someone above made a much better point about Delors than I could but still it also ignores the fact that it was the votes of a large number of Labour MPs who voted for us to enter the EU; including Roy Jenkins and many others. Equally by the late 1980s & 1990s it was only a part of the Labour left who opposed EU membership (Diane Abbott was mistrusted by part of the left for her pro-EU views once she entered Parliament & her politics represents just how much of the left came to see the EU)

Besides the current opinion of the Labour membership is overwhelming pro-EU; whether that's the 'Another Europe is Possible' Left or the Right. Besides the EU has changed so much & british politics has since the 1970s that I'm not sure the old 'why aren't Labour anti-EUC like Gaitskell' talking point has much use beyond a talking point and historical discussion.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Official Timetable

Tuesday 7 January: Nominations open from MPs and MEPs.
Monday 13 January: Nominations from MPs and MEPs closes at 2.30pm.
Tuesday 14 January: Registered supporters applications open at 5pm.
Thursday 16 January: Registered supporters applications close at 5pm.
Wednesday 15 January: Second stage of nominations from constituency Labour parties and affiliates opens.
Monday 20 January: Freeze date for eligibility for new members and affiliated supporters, closes at 5pm.
Friday 14 February: Close of CLP and affiliate nominations.
Friday 21 February: Ballot opens.
Thursday 2 April: Ballot closes at 12pm.
Saturday 4 April: Special conference to announce results.

To sign up as an RS one must pay £25, which, for the record, is more than you would pay if you were to join certain affiliates or the party itself for the requisite few months.

Talking of affiliates, he attended the NEC meeting today in his guise as the Chair of BAME Labour. I seem to remember in the 2010 leadership elections it turned out that they had some ridiculously low number of members (80%+ of whom voted for David Miliband), because most BAME members of the Labour Party didn't realise BAME Labour was a separate affiliate they had to join.

If I was running an entryist campaign, I think it would be quite easy to target a couple of the affiliates for takeover.

[S019]

I really, really, really hope that what Labour members and supporters take away from this debacle isn't that the party needs to go back to neoliberal fiscal policies and embrace hard-Remainer identity politics. We'll see.

On the contrary, that's what they should do. Labour hasn't won an election since Tony Blair led the party and before that, their last win was in the 1970's. Love it or hate it, neoliberalism allowed them to gain large majorities in Parliament under Blair. If Labour is smart, they will move to the center.

[DaWN]

Or perhaps the party needs to accept that both the politics of 1974 and the politics of 1997 are long dead and buried and it needs to look to the future. The party's left have been unable to accept the former (hence The Second Longest Suicide Note in History last month) while part of the right's biggest problems over the last half decade has been its inability to accept the latter.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really, really, really hope that what Labour members and supporters take away from this debacle isn't that the party needs to go back to neoliberal fiscal policies and embrace hard-Remainer identity politics. We'll see.

On the contrary, that's what they should do. Labour hasn't won an election since Tony Blair led the party and before that, their last win was in the 1970's. Love it or hate it, neoliberalism allowed them to gain large majorities in Parliament under Blair. If Labour is smart, they will move to the center.

lol k

[parochial boy]

And the fates of Labour's "sister" parties in Ireland, Italy, France, Germany and the Netherlands* in particular might provide something of a caution against overly enthusiastically embracing technocratic liberal economic policies in this, the year 2020.

*obviously there are many different factors explaining the electoral fortunes of Europe's Social Democrats, but in the above five cases - embracing "centrist" liberal economics was a direct and almost uncontestable cause of their particularly intense electoral oblivions

[Pericles]

Or perhaps the party needs to accept that both the politics of 1974 and the politics of 1997 are long dead and buried and it needs to look to the future. The party's left have been unable to accept the former (hence The Second Longest Suicide Note in History last month) while part of the right's biggest problems over the last half decade has been its inability to accept the latter.

The 2019 manifesto wasn't toxic like the 1983 one, indeed the 2017 one which was pretty similar was the opposite of toxic. It wasn't a great manifesto politically, it was a bit overcomplicated and going even more to the left from 2017 was unwise, but Corbyn's toxicity came from a wide range of issues outside of his policies.

[DaWN]

Or perhaps the party needs to accept that both the politics of 1974 and the politics of 1997 are long dead and buried and it needs to look to the future. The party's left have been unable to accept the former (hence The Second Longest Suicide Note in History last month) while part of the right's biggest problems over the last half decade has been its inability to accept the latter.

The 2019 manifesto wasn't toxic like the 1983 one, indeed the 2017 one which was pretty similar was the opposite of toxic. It wasn't a great manifesto politically, it was a bit overcomplicated and going even more to the left from 2017 was unwise, but Corbyn's toxicity came from a wide range of issues outside of his policies.

Labour has a great deal to look at and reflect on regarding last month, but pretending the manifesto was popular and there was nothing wrong with policy will be a great way to repeat the result in 2024.

[Pericles]

Or perhaps the party needs to accept that both the politics of 1974 and the politics of 1997 are long dead and buried and it needs to look to the future. The party's left have been unable to accept the former (hence The Second Longest Suicide Note in History last month) while part of the right's biggest problems over the last half decade has been its inability to accept the latter.

The 2019 manifesto wasn't toxic like the 1983 one, indeed the 2017 one which was pretty similar was the opposite of toxic. It wasn't a great manifesto politically, it was a bit overcomplicated and going even more to the left from 2017 was unwise, but Corbyn's toxicity came from a wide range of issues outside of his policies.

Labour has a great deal to look at and reflect on regarding last month, but pretending the manifesto was popular and there was nothing wrong with policy will be a great way to repeat the result in 2024.

That's not what I said, but I don't think there's much evidence that overall the party needs to shift back to its pre-Corbyn policies either. A good presentation of the overall policy offer, like in 2017, with a good leader and hopefully with the Brexit issue not weighing on Labour anymore, would give Labour a solid chance of election victory.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1214313055162687488

The Anointed One is to declare. God help us when if she wins

[Lord Halifax]

Ian Lavery has endorsed RLB.

[adma]

- Nandy is lightweight and "sounds dumb"

Which is sure to be a major handicap against the famously articulate Boris Johnson.

Lisa Nandy is brown, you see

And Boris is of Turkish background, if there's any message there.

[Intell]

- Nandy is lightweight and "sounds dumb"

Which is sure to be a major handicap against the famously articulate Boris Johnson.

Lisa Nandy is brown, you see

huh?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the contrary, that's what they should do. Labour hasn't won an election since Tony Blair led the party and before that, their last win was in the 1970's. Love it or hate it, neoliberalism allowed them to gain large majorities in Parliament under Blair. If Labour is smart, they will move to the center.

New Labour was not what you think it was. The point was to advance towards socialist goals through market mechanisms and to sell this with a certain populist panache. The biggest promise of all was to save the welfare state, to improve other public services and to tackle persistent social problems through a massive injection of cash to be extracted, in the first instance, from a windfall tax on the profits of questionably privatised utilities!

[Intell]

On the contrary, that's what they should do. Labour hasn't won an election since Tony Blair led the party and before that, their last win was in the 1970's. Love it or hate it, neoliberalism allowed them to gain large majorities in Parliament under Blair. If Labour is smart, they will move to the center.

New Labour was not what you think it was. The point was to advance towards socialist goals through market mechanisms and to sell this with a certain populist panache. The biggest promise of all was to save the welfare state, to improve other public services and to tackle persistent social problems through a massive injection of cash to be extracted, in the first instance, from a windfall tax on the profits of questionably privatised utilities!

Tony Blair disagrees with that right now.

[morgieb]

- Nandy is lightweight and "sounds dumb"

Which is sure to be a major handicap against the famously articulate Boris Johnson.

Lisa Nandy is brown, you see

huh?

Her dad is Indian.