UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[DistingFlyer]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Conservatives
Average Majority: 13957 (highest ever)
Largest Majority: 32565 in Sleaford & North Hykeham (largest since 1992)
Average Majority (%): 26.7% (highest since 1931)
Largest Majority (%): 62.7% in South Holland & The Deepings (largest since 1964)
Average Vote %: 56.3% (highest since 1959)
Largest Vote %: 76.7% in Castle Point (highest since 1966)
Constituencies won by >25%: 206 (most since 1931)

Labour
Average Majority: 11983 (lower than 2017, but higher than 2001-2015)
Largest Majority: 39942 in Knowsley (lower than 2017, but higher than any previous to that)
Average Majority (%): 25.3% (lower than 2017, but higher than 2005-2015)
Largest Majority (%): 74.8% in Liverpool Walton (lower than 2017, but higher than 1983-2015)
Average Vote %: 54.0% (lower than 2017, but higher than 2005-2015)
Largest Vote %: 84.7% in Liverpool Walton (lower than 2017, but higher than 1983-2015)
Constituencies won by >25%: 86 (fewer than 2015-2017)

Liberal Democrat
Average Majority: 6333 (highest since 1955)
Largest Majority: 14121 in Twickenham (highest since 2010)
Average Majority (%): 11.4% (highest since 2010)
Largest Majority (%): 23.6% in Bath (highest since 2010)
Average Vote %: 48.4% (largest since 1959)
Largest Vote %: 56.1% in Twickenham (largest since 2010)
Constituencies won by >25%: zero (last happened in 2010)

Nationalist
Average Majority: 7476 (less than 2015, but highest otherwise)
Largest Majority: 14948 in Falkirk (see above remarks)
Average Majority (%): 16.3% (less than 2015, but higher than 2001-2010)
Largest Majority (%): 33.9% in Aberdeen North (highest since 2015)
Average Vote %: 46.5% (less than 2015, but higher than 1983-2010)
Largest Vote %: 54.0% in Aberdeen North (highest since 2015)
Constituencies won by >25%: 7 (fewer than 2015, but most otherwise)

Overall
Average Majority: 12666 (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 25.1% (see above remarks)
Average Vote %: 54.6% (less than 2015, but higher than 1974-2010)
Constituencies won by >25%: 304 (exactly the same as 2017, and apart from 2015, the most since 1931)

[jaichind]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Conservatives
Constituencies won by >25%: 206 (most since 1931)

Speaks to the relative inefficiency of the CON vote in 2019.  2005 LAB was the most efficient allocation of the vote I know of.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

"The Home Counties will never vote for Labour" is certainly one takeaway from the election where the Tories were nearly victorious in Doncaster North and Normanton, Pontefract and Newcastle...

[Clyde1998]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+3), Lib 1 (nc), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hate to burst your progressive coalition bubble, but they were unable to win a majority of seats with a 51-46 vote split in their favor. Now, some  of this is obviously the fact that the current map has been in use for too long and is getting into mallaportionment territory. However, most has to do with votes getting packed hard into cities. Like, the progressive coalition loses 2019 Labour seats in the Northeast thanks to Brexit.

And the SNP would never be part of some hypothetical progressive coalition, so that further bursts this bubble. I'm not arguing against looking at the London commuter region, that has to happen for Labour to win in the 2020s, I'm just pushing back on the idea that division in the  left is what doomed the country to Boris.

This map really shows that becoming a pro-Remain would be political suicide for Labour. Remain support is simply too concentrated in London and Scotland, so it's an incredibly inefficient coalition. It would basically put Labour at the same disadvantage Democrats are at winning the US House or even the Senate (I know, I know, transatlantic comparisons etc., but I think this one is reasonable).

[Tintrlvr]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+2), Lib 1 (+1), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

Which remaining Scottish Conservative seat voted for independence? None of them really seem plausible based on the council area breakdowns.

[Clyde1998]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+2), Lib 1 (+1), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

Which remaining Scottish Conservative seat voted for independence? None of them really seem plausible based on the council area breakdowns.

Banff and Buchan, which also voted for Brexit.

[Tintrlvr]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+2), Lib 1 (+1), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

Which remaining Scottish Conservative seat voted for independence? None of them really seem plausible based on the council area breakdowns.

Banff and Buchan, which also voted for Brexit.

Are we certain about that? Aberdeenshire council area was 60% No and only includes that seat, Gordon and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine. That would require Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine to be the most anti-independence seat in Scotland by a significant margin for the math to work.

[Clyde1998]

Overall majority & vote share figures:

Just to add to this.

Absolute majority (50%+ of vote):
Con 280 seats (+7; 77% of their seats)
Lab 120 seats (-72; 59%)
SNP 10 seats (+10; 21%)
Lib 6 seats (+5; 46%)
SDLP 2 seats (+2; 100%)
Grn 1 seat (nc; 100%)
SF 1 seat (-2; 14%)
Spk 1 seat (nc; 100%)
DUP 0 seats (-5; 0%)
Total 421 (-55; 65%)

Overall since 1997:
2019 - 421
2017 - 476
2015 - 317
2010 - 216
2005 - 218
2001 - 326
1997 - 347
Seats by type:
2010 Con wins (306) - Con 282, Lab 21, Lib 3
2010 Lab wins (258) - Lab 168, Con 50, SNP 39, Spk 1
2010 Lib wins (57) - Con 30, Lab 13, Lib 8, SNP 5, PC 1
2015 UKIP +20% (69) - Con 47 (+19 on 2015), Lab 22 (-17), Oth 0 (-2)
Borough (285) - Lab 160 (-28), Con 98 (+25), SNP 17 (+4), Lib 5 (-1), SF 2 (+1), Grn 1, DUP 1 (-2), SDLP 1 (+1)
County (365) - Con 267 (+23), Lab 42 (-32), SNP 31 (+9), DUP 7, Lib 6, SF 5 (-1), PC 4, APNI 1 (+1), SDLP 1 (+1), Spk 1

Borough constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in urban areas, county constituencies generally have a majority of their land area in rural areas

Scottish seats by independence vote:
Yes 50%+ (16) - SNP 15 (+2), Con 1 (nc), Lab 0 (-2)
No 50-55% (18) - SNP 17 (+2), Lib 1 (+1), Con 0 (-1), Lab 0 (-2)
No 55-60% (11) - SNP 10 (+4), Con 1 (-3), Lab 0 (-1)
No 60%+ (14) - SNP 6 (+4), Con 4 (-3), Lib 3 (nc), Lab 1 (-1)

Which remaining Scottish Conservative seat voted for independence? None of them really seem plausible based on the council area breakdowns.

Banff and Buchan, which also voted for Brexit.

Are we certain about that? Aberdeenshire council area was 60% No and only includes that seat, Gordon and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine. That would require Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine to be the most anti-independence seat in Scotland by a significant margin for the math to work.

In Aberdeenshire, the constituency breakdowns are:

Banff & Buchan - 52% Yes
Gordon - 38% Yes (very small percentage of in Aberdeen City Council)
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 32% Yes

These are best estimates, like the Brexit figures, and were only done to the nearest 1% but they tally up to within 0.2% of the overall Aberdeenshire result assuming the same distribution of voters in the constituency as in this election.
For clarity the percentages for each constituency are (council areas shown in brackets, councils listed between asterisks have the same boundary as the council area):

58% - Dundee West (Dundee City, Angus)
57% - Glasgow North East (Glasgow City)
55% - Glasgow Central (Glasgow City)
54% - Glasgow South West (Glasgow City)
54% - Glenrothes (Fife)
54% - West Dunbartonshire (West Dunbartonshire)
53% - Glasgow East (Glasgow City)
52% - Banff & Buchan (Aberdeenshire)
52% - Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East (East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire)
52% - Glasgow North (Glasgow City)
52% - Glasgow South (Glasgow City)
51% - Airdrie & Shotts (North Lanarkshire)
51% - Dundee East (Dundee City, Angus)
51% - Glasgow North West (Glasgow City)
51% - Motherwell & Wishaw (North Lanarkshire)
50% - Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (voted Yes; North Lanarkshire)
50% - Inverclyde (voted No; *Inverclyde*)
50% - Ross, Skye & Lochaber (voted No; Highland)
49% - Rutherglen & Hamilton West (South Lanarkshire)
48% - Aberdeen North (Aberdeen City)
48% - Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Fife)
48% - North Ayrshire & Arran (North Ayrshire)
48% - Paisley & Renfrewshire South (Renfrewshire)
47% - Edinburgh East (Edinburgh, City of)
47% - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Highland)
47% - Kilmarnock and Loudoun (East Ayrshire)
47% - Na h-Eileanan an Iar (*Eilean Siar*)
46% - Linlithgow & East Falkirk (Falkirk, West Lothian)
46% - Paisley & Renfrewshire North (Renfrewshire)
45% - Angus (Angus)
45% - Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (Highland)
45% - Central Ayrshire (North Ayrshire, South Ayrshire)
45% - Falkirk (Falkirk)
45% - Livingston (West Lothian)
44% - Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire)
44% - East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow (South Lanarkshire)
44% - Lanark & Hamilton East (South Lanarkshire)
44% - Midlothian (*Midlothian*)
43% - Perth & North Perthshire (Perth & Kinross)
42% - Argyll & Bute (*Argyll & Bute*)
42% - Dunfermline & West Fife (Fife)
42% - Moray (*Moray*)
40% - Edinburgh North & Leith (Edinburgh, City of)
40% - Ochil & South Perthshire (Clackmannanshire, Perth and Kinross)
40% - Stirling (*Stirling*)
38% - East Lothian (*East Lothian*)
38% - Edinburgh South West (Edinburgh, City of)
38% - Gordon (Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire)
37% - Dumfries & Galloway (Dumfries & Galloway)
37% - East Renfrewshire (*East Renfrewshire*)
36% - North East Fife (Fife)
35% - Aberdeen South (Aberdeen City)
35% - East Dunbartonshire (East Dunbartonshire)
35% - Edinburgh South (Edinburgh, City of)
35% - Orkney & Shetland (*Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands*)
34% - Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Scottish Borders)
34% - Edinburgh West (Edinburgh, City of)
32% - Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Dumfries & Galloway, Scottish Borders, South Lanarkshire)
32% - West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (Aberdeenshire)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wont quote all the earlier posts made here and I know people on are always eager for interesting and lasting trends, but does anyone else see 2019 as a painfully clear anomaly election?

No General Election in this country has looked much like the previous one in eighteen years.

[DistingFlyer]

To compare/contrast, here are figures for 1987 & 1997.

1987 first:

Conservatives
Average Majority: 11410 (more than 1983, less than 1979)
Largest Majority: 27044 in Huntingdon (see above remarks)
Average Majority (%): 21.1% (see above remarks again)
Largest Majority (%): 46.6% in Chelsea (see above remarks yet again)
Average Vote %: 52.0% (see above remarks one more time)
Largest Vote %: 66.0% in Beaconsfield (lower than 1983)
Constituencies won by >25%: 157 (most since 1935)

Labour
Average Majority: 10621 (highest ever, believe it or not - not surpassed until 1997)
Largest Majority: 30596 in Rhondda (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Average Majority (%): 24.3% (highest since 1966)
Largest Majority (%): 64.4% in Blaenau Gwent (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Average Vote %: 52.6% (see above remarks)
Largest Vote %: 75.9% in Blaenau Gwent (see above remarks again)
Constituencies won by >25%: 101 (most since 1974)

Liberal-SDP Alliance
Average Majority: 4497 (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Largest Majority: 11319 in Ross, Cromarty & Skye (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 11.7% (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Largest Majority (%): 36.9% in Caithness & Sutherland (highest since 1974)
Average Vote %: 45.0% (lowest since 1974)
Largest Vote %: 53.6% in Caithness & Sutherland (lowest since 1970)
Constituencies won by >25%: 2 (same as 1983)

Overall
Average Majority: 10820 (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 21.9% (highest since 1935)
Average Vote %: 51.9% (higher than 1983, lower than 1979)
Constituencies won by >25%: 270 (most since 1931)


Now here's 1997:

Conservatives
Average Majority: 6593 (lowest since 1966)
Largest Majority: 18140 in Huntingdon (lowest since 1923)
Average Majority (%): 12.6% (lowest since 1910)
Largest Majority (%): 31.8% in Huntingdon (lowest since at least 1885 - probably ever)
Average Vote %: 44.5% (see above remarks)
Largest Vote %: 55.3% in Huntingdon (see above remarks again)
Constituencies won by >25%: 12 (see above remarks again)

Labour
Average Majority: 13263 (highest ever - surpassed in 2017)
Largest Majority: 30708 in Knowsley South (highest since 1974, but only just barely)
Average Majority (%): 30.6% (highest ever, and highest for any party since 1931 - still the case in both respects)
Largest Majority (%): 74.4% in Bootle (highest since 1979)
Average Vote %: 56.9% (highest since 1970)
Largest Vote %: 82.9% in Bootle (highest since 1979)
Constituencies won by >25%: 257 (most ever, and most for any party since 1931 - still the case in both respects)

Liberal Democrats
Average Majority: 5223 (highest since Feb 1974)
Largest Majority: 13847 in North Cornwall (highest since 1931)
Average Majority (%): 11.2% (higher than 1992, but lower than 1979-1987)
Largest Majority (%): 33.7% in Orkney & Shetland (higher than 1992, lower than 1987)
Average Vote %: 44.2% (lowest since Oct 1974)
Largest Vote %: 54.5% in Hazel Grove (lower than 1992, higher than 1987)
Constituencies won by >25%: 1 (same as 1992)

Overall
Average Majority: 10861 (highest since 1931 - just barely (see 1987))
Average Majority (%): 24.4% (highest since 1931)
Average Vote %: 52.6% (highest since 1979 - barely (1992 was 52.5%))
Constituencies won by >25%: 277 (most since 1931)

Note that 257 of 277 safe seats (>25% margins) were won by Labour.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at 'ultra-safe' seats (won by >50%), here are how things looked in 1987, 1997 & 2019:

1987 - 21 Labour (most since 1966), 4 Northern Irish
1997 - 66 Labour (most ever, and most for any party since 1931)
2019 - 24 Labour (fewer than 2017, but more than 2005-2015), 13 Conservatives (most since 1935)

Since 1923, Labour has never failed to win at least one constituency by >50% - even in 1983 they got three - but it's very rare for other parties to do so: post-War, the Liberals have done it in 1945 & 1997 (one apiece), and while the Tories did it in every election from 1924 through 1970 (and every election from 1886 through 1922 as well), since then they've only done it in 1979 (just one), 2015 (four) and 2019 (thirteen).


Note as well the seat with the highest Tory vote in 2019 (and indeed the highest since 1966): Castle Point, a constituency narrowly won by Labour in 1997.

[DistingFlyer]

Before the election there was some discussion about whether or not Boris Johnson was at risk in his own seat; he held it, of course, but his margin is the narrowest for a winning Prime Minister in a long time:

1931 - Ramsay Macdonald wins Seaham by 5951 (11.3%) - he lost it, heavily, in 1935
1935 - Stanley Baldwin wins Bewdley by acclamation
1945 - Clement Attlee wins Limehouse by 6780 (67.7%)
1950 - Clement Attlee wins Walthamstow West by 12107 (34.7%)
1951 - Winston Churchill wins Woodford by 18579 (28.6%)
1955 - Sir Anthony Eden wins Warwick & Leamington by 13466 (29.0%)
1959 - Harold Macmillan wins Bromley by 15454 (40.0%)
1964 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 19273 (29.2%)
1966 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 20950 (33.8%)
1970 - Ted Heath wins Bexley by 8058 (15.8%)
Feb 1974 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 15305 (27.3%)
Oct 1974 - Harold Wilson wins Huyton by 16233 (31.1%)
1979 - Margaret Thatcher wins Finchley by 7878 (19.8%)
1983 - Margaret Thatcher wins Finchley by 9314 (24.2%)
1987 - Margaret Thatcher wins Finchley by 8913 (22.2%)
1992 - John Major wins Huntingdon by 36230 (49.3%) - the only time a victorious PM also held his party's safest seat
1997 - Tony Blair wins Sedgefield by 25143 (53.4%)
2001 - Tony Blair wins Sedgefield by 17713 (44.0%)
2005 - Tony Blair wins Sedgefield by 18449 (44.5%)
2010 - David Cameron wins Witney by 22740 (39.4%)
2015 - David Cameron wins Witney by 25155 (43.0%)
2017 - Theresa May wins Maidenhead by 26457 (45.4%)
2019 - Boris Johnson wins Uxbridge & South Ruislip by 7210 (15.0%)

Note that the only instance, post-1945, of a winning leader holding his seat by anything like as narrow a margin as Johnson held his was Ted Heath in 1970 (who was also rumored, during the campaign, to be at risk of personal defeat). A bit of irony there, I suppose . . .

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total other than MacDonald. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

[DistingFlyer]

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

The last redistribution was in 1918; this, combined with the wartime movement of people out of London and into the surrounding areas, meant that a lot of seats like his had tiny electorates by 1945. This proved to be a help for Labour in that election, of course: those old strongholds remained unchanged in terms of boundaries, while surrounding seats now had lots of Labour voters living in them.

In general, the best election for Labour is the one right before redistribution - Tories tend to do well in prosperous, fast-growing places, so they usually gain seats each time while Labour lose them. The more time passes after redistribution, the greater Labour's advantage, astheir core seats tend to stagnate or even shrink, while the Tories' heartlands swell - look at the huge majority for John Major in 1992, the last election held on the 1983 boundaries.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

The last redistribution was in 1918; this, combined with the wartime movement of people out of London and into the surrounding areas, meant that a lot of seats like his had tiny electorates by 1945. This proved to be a help for Labour in that election, of course: those old strongholds remained unchanged in terms of boundaries, while surrounding seats now had lots of Labour voters living in them.

In general, the best election for Labour is the one right before redistribution - Tories tend to do well in prosperous, fast-growing places, so they usually gain seats each time while Labour lose them. The more time passes after redistribution, the greater Labour's advantage, astheir core seats tend to stagnate or even shrink, while the Tories' heartlands swell - look at the huge majority for John Major in 1992, the last election held on the 1983 boundaries.

I'm confused. If 1992 was the last election held on the 1983 boundaries, shouldn't the map have favored Kinnock rather than Major going by this?

[DistingFlyer]

Interesting that Attlee '45 has the largest margin of victory there by percentage but the smallest by vote total. Was London horrendously malapportioned by 1945, did the East End have beyond-abysmal turnout at the time, or both?

The last redistribution was in 1918; this, combined with the wartime movement of people out of London and into the surrounding areas, meant that a lot of seats like his had tiny electorates by 1945. This proved to be a help for Labour in that election, of course: those old strongholds remained unchanged in terms of boundaries, while surrounding seats now had lots of Labour voters living in them.

In general, the best election for Labour is the one right before redistribution - Tories tend to do well in prosperous, fast-growing places, so they usually gain seats each time while Labour lose them. The more time passes after redistribution, the greater Labour's advantage, astheir core seats tend to stagnate or even shrink, while the Tories' heartlands swell - look at the huge majority for John Major in 1992, the last election held on the 1983 boundaries.

I'm confused. If 1992 was the last election held on the 1983 boundaries, shouldn't the map have favored Kinnock rather than Major going by this?

It favored Labour; the Tory strongholds had such huge electorates that vast numbers of votes were being used up in them with no gain in seats. Note that the national Tory lead (7.6%) was very similar to 1979 (7.1%), but with a much smaller majority (336 seats vice a notional 359 on the 1983 boundaries).

Looking at John Major's seat of Huntingdon, the 1979 notional result showed 54,189 votes cast (32,601 for Major). Fast forward to 1992 and there are 73,554 cast there - 48,662 for Major. Percentage-wise, that's only a six-point increase (60.2% to 66.2%), but it's 16,000 more votes for Major that pad his majority but don't help the Tories in other seats.

The average Tory constituency in 1983 had 49,742 votes cast, while the average Labour one had 43,283. Look at 1992 and it's 57,142 in the average Tory seat and 45,859 in the average Labour seat.

[catographer]

Labour has a long road ahead of them; they are 124 seats away from a majority. It's just a guess, but I don't think even a 10 pt uniform swing would get them 124. Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

Meanwhile, as an election nerd, I hope Johnson's gov't adopts the 600 seat redistribution; it would be cool to see new maps, especially for more even apportionment.

[DistingFlyer]

Labour has a long road ahead of them; they are 124 seats away from a majority. It's just a guess, but I don't think even a 10 pt uniform swing would get them 124. Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

Meanwhile, as an election nerd, I hope Johnson's gov't adopts the 600 seat redistribution; it would be cool to see new maps, especially for more even apportionment.

The next redistribution will also probably widen the gap in seats between the Tories & Labour, making Labour's task even harder.

Looking purely at Conservative seats, Labour would need a 13.1% swing to take 123 of them (the 123rd being North East Somerset). I'm sure on a big swing like that they'd also pick up a lot of SNP seats too, but even if we reduce the number to 90 Tory seats required it's still an 8.6% swing needed to win Camborne & Redruth.

Almost a reversal now of the Blair years, where it was estimated that the Tories would need at least a 9% lead over Labour to win an overall majority in 2001 & 2005.

On the other hand, if it's just a question of depriving the Tories of their majority it's not so difficult a task: their fortieth most marginal seat (against all parties) is Stroud, with only a 2.9% swing needed for it to be lost.

[Annatar]

It's pretty interesting how close the Labour + Lib dem vote total was to the conservatives, the Tories got 13,966,565 votes and Labour + Lib dems got 13,965,152. The Tories ended up with 1,413 more votes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

[insert quote about Dylan Thomas and Welsh nationalism but with "Scottish" instead of "Welsh" here] (sorry, afleitch)

[DistingFlyer]

It's pretty interesting how close the Labour + Lib dem vote total was to the conservatives, the Tories got 13,966,565 votes and Labour + Lib dems got 13,965,152. The Tories ended up with 1,413 more votes.

You actually have to go back to 1955 to find the last time the Tories outpolled the combined Liberal & Labour vote (in that case, 49.7%-46.4%-2.7%).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

[insert quote about Dylan Thomas and Welsh nationalism but with "Scottish" instead of "Welsh" here] (sorry, afleitch)

Non-salty take: the endgame for the left needs to be including the SNP in some sort of common program that isn't predicated on my-nationalism-is-woker-than-your-nationalism rather than attempting to tilt at windmills and overturn the new alignment north of the Tweed.

[Clyde1998]

Their loss of Scotland makes things even harder; even in 2010, Labour had 217 seats outside Scotland; today Labour has 201. Barring a Scotland rebound, they would need to gain 124 in England and Wales alone...

[insert quote about Dylan Thomas and Welsh nationalism but with "Scottish" instead of "Welsh" here] (sorry, afleitch)

Non-salty take: the endgame for the left needs to be including the SNP in some sort of common program that isn't predicated on my-nationalism-is-woker-than-your-nationalism rather than attempting to tilt at windmills and overturn the new alignment north of the Tweed.

The problem there is that you'd need to get the Scottish end of the Labour and Liberal Democrats to agree with that, which they never would.

In 2017, the Scottish Labour leader basically told people to vote Conservative in seats where Labour couldn't win to beat the SNP; if the SNP held half of the seats the Conservatives gained from them in 2017 (six), the Conservatives+DUP would've had less seats than Lab+Lib+SNP+Plaid+Grn. It would've been almost impossible for Theresa May to govern and a softer Brexit deal - remaining within the Customs Union (for example) - may have been achieved (in fact the 'indicative vote' on the Customs Union would've passed without those extra Scottish Conservative MPs).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The sad truth (and you know it brings me no joy to say it) is that Labour is probably better off scuttling its Scottish wing altogether. Like, I don't mean they shouldn't even run there, it's probably good to keep a ground presence just in case. But no serious resources should be put into winning seats there. It's simply not worth it, when the only Labour marginals there are with a party that would realistically have to become a coalition partner anyway. Netting a seat against the SNP does almost nothing to increase the chances of a Labour government. So leave Scotland to the SNP and focus all your energy into winning marginals in England and Wales, and then find a way to turn the SNP into a permanent satellite.

Of course, if I thought there was a way for Labour to crush the SNP and turn the clock back to 2010 in Scotland, I would be all for it, but let's face it, that's just not possible in the current climate.