UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[cp]

We're T-minus 24 hours from the exit poll. Figured now would be the time to start this.

[Oryxslayer]

Now we get the best part of the election process: Dogs at Polling Stations!

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

[Matty]

Rain in London

[Tintrlvr]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

Every election there are fewer and fewer declarations the night of. If it's not a total blowout, are we even reasonably going to know enough results night-of to be able to assess whether it's a majority or not (exit polls aside, of course)?

[Queen Isuelt]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0

Last Yougov MRP Poll. In 2017, it was very accurate. Got laughed at for predicting Canterbury (a seat held by the Tories for 100 years) and saw a 20% swing. 

[DistingFlyer]

The initial BBC projections haven't always been right on, but their track record is pretty good overall:

2017 - projected Tories short by 12 (actually short by 8 )
2015 - projected Tories short by 10 (actually a majority of 12)
2010 - projected Tories short by 19 (correct)
2005 - projected a Labour majority of 66 (correct)
2001 - projected a Labour majority of c.160 (actually a majority of 167)
1997 - projected a Labour majority of c.175 (actually a majority of 179)
1992 - projected Tories short by 25 (actually a majority of 21)
1987 - projected a Tory majority of 26 (actually a majority of 102)
1983 - projected a Tory majority of 146 (actually a majority of 144)

(They didn't provide an exact figure in 1997 & 2001, giving just a rough estimate.)

They were rather off in 1987 & 1992, but otherwise were pretty close on all the rest (though you can debate if their 2015 exit poll was 'close' or not, I suppose).

[Oryxslayer]

The initial BBC projections haven't always been right on, but their track record is pretty good overall:

2017 - projected Tories short by 12 (actually short by 8 )
2015 - projected Tories short by 10 (actually a majority of 12)
2010 - projected Tories short by 19 (correct)
2005 - projected a Labour majority of 66 (correct)
2001 - projected a Labour majority of c.160 (actually a majority of 167)
1997 - projected a Labour majority of c.175 (actually a majority of 179)
1992 - projected Tories short by 25 (actually a majority of 21)
1987 - projected a Tory majority of 26 (actually a majority of 102)
1983 - projected a Tory majority of 146 (actually a majority of 144)

(They didn't provide an exact figure in 1997 & 2001, giving just a rough estimate.)

They were pretty far out on 1987 & 1992, but otherwise were pretty close on all the rest (though you can debate if their 2015 exit poll was 'close' or not, I suppose).

Yes, since '92 the exit poll has always been in the neighborhood of the final results. I recall listening to a podcast on the exit poll and they mentioned since then that methods changed, technology allowed for better analysis, and making it a joint-broadcaster poll increased available funding. These developments have made it more  accurate. It hasn't been the best at the constituency level, particularly when minor parties, new parties, or eye-popping swings are  involved, but it has been accurate enough in regards to the big picture. Everyone should expect that the numbers shown at 10pm are going to be close-ish to the eventual breakdown.

[LabourJersey]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

Magners or Strongbow?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

Magners or Strongbow?

Glorious 8% ABV K-Cider.

[LabourJersey]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

Magners or Strongbow?

Glorious 8% ABV K-Cider.

Bold choice there, but probably a necessary one if it's a wild night.

[CumbrianLefty]

Now we get the best part of the election process: Dogs at Polling Stations!

Given its the middle of winter, maybe not as many as usual?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/pokemon_paul/status/1204373448522420224

Oooh, equally pretty *and* useful map.

Useful map from the other thread.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope this is what happens

David Dimbleby: As Big Ben strikes 10 we can give you the results of our exit poll . There it is 10 o clock and we say Boris Johnson will remain prime minister and a landslide is likely

[rc18]

I hope this is what happens

David Dimbleby: As Big Ben strikes 10 we can give you the results of our exit poll . There it is 10 o clock and we say Boris Johnson will remain prime minister and a landslide is likely

Somewhat unlikely.

David Dimbleby is no longer hosting. 

[brucejoel99]

I hope this is what happens

David Dimbleby Huw Edwards: As Big Ben strikes 10 we can give you the results of our exit poll . There it is 10 o clock and we say Boris Johnson will remain prime minister and a landslide is likely it's going to be a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. And the figures: 300 for the Conservatives, that's down 18. Labour stays on 262. The SNP, the Scottish National Party, 45, up 11. Treat that figure with a bit of caution for technical reasons about the exit poll which I don't need to explain right now. The Liberal Democrats on 21, up 9. And the smaller parties: Plaid Cymru stays on 3, the Greens on 1, none for Brexit, & the others: 18.

FTFY.

[Gass3268]

I hope this is what happens

David Dimbleby Huw Edwards: As Big Ben strikes 10 we can give you the results of our exit poll . There it is 10 o clock and we say Boris Johnson will remain prime minister and a landslide is likely it's going to be a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. And the figures: 300 for the Conservatives, that's down 18. Labour stays on 262. The SNP, the Scottish National Party, 45, up 11. Treat that figure with a bit of caution for technical reasons about the exit poll which I don't need to explain right now. The Liberal Democrats on 21, up 9. And the smaller parties: Plaid Cymru stays on 3, the Greens on 1, none for Brexit, & the others: 18.

FTFY.

This is my hope as well.

[Joe Republic]

I’m going to have to put Old School Republican on ignore for the next 48-72 hours, aren’t I?  Or just extend it indefinitely...

There’s only so much utterly braindead #analysis I can take.

[mileslunn]

I am flying to London actually the day after the election, but luckily here in Vancouver polls close at 2:00 PM local time so by the time I go to bed unless a razor thin margin we should have enough declared results to know the outcome.  In fact I suspect by the time I head to bed, only the super close ones that are going to recounts will not be announced.  I remember Kensington which was won by 20 votes in 2017 took almost a full day as I believe they did 3 recounts before announcing.

My prediction is when Big Ben strikes ten, Huw Edwards says, We can now say Conservatives largest party, likely a majority with 343 seats, a majority of 36 but due to margin of error of 20 seats we still cannot say for sure but looks highly likely.  That is up 26 seats, Labour at 226 seats which is down 36 seats and if this is what happens that would be their worst showing since 1983, SNP at 43 seats but treat that with caution for obvious reasons, Liberal Democrats at 14 up only two so well short of the gains they were hoping for, Plaid Cymru 4 seats, Greens 1 seat, and others 18 seats.

A 2:00 ish Jo Swinson is re-elected in East Dunbartonshire and re-iterates her call to cancel Brexit and while stating a Tory majority looks likely, but if they fall short she will push to cancel Article 50 and have a people's vote and even if a majority she will try and appeal to Conservative backbenchers to support a people's vote and with other parties.  No discussion of resigning.

At 3:00 ish when Islington North is declared, Corbyn still very defiant and mentions majority voted for progressive parties and doesn't mention anything about Labour's poor showing or decision to step down. 

At 5:00 ish It is clear the Tories well before this have won a majority, question is will Boris win his seat or could the shifts in London buck national trends and result him being PM without a seat.  It is surprisingly close, but he nonetheless is re-elected.  He gives a victory speech thanking the country for entrusting him with a majority and promises to get Brexit done.  He promises to recall parliament to get the Brexit deal passed before Christmas and so they can focus on all the other great things they have planned.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Polls have just opened.

[Skye]

The initial BBC projections haven't always been right on, but their track record is pretty good overall:

2017 - projected Tories short by 12 (actually short by 8 )
2015 - projected Tories short by 10 (actually a majority of 12)
2010 - projected Tories short by 19 (correct)
2005 - projected a Labour majority of 66 (correct)
2001 - projected a Labour majority of c.160 (actually a majority of 167)
1997 - projected a Labour majority of c.175 (actually a majority of 179)
1992 - projected Tories short by 25 (actually a majority of 21)
1987 - projected a Tory majority of 26 (actually a majority of 102)
1983 - projected a Tory majority of 146 (actually a majority of 144)

(They didn't provide an exact figure in 1997 & 2001, giving just a rough estimate.)

They were rather off in 1987 & 1992, but otherwise were pretty close on all the rest (though you can debate if their 2015 exit poll was 'close' or not, I suppose).

At which hour can we expect this?

[cp]

The initial BBC projections haven't always been right on, but their track record is pretty good overall:

2017 - projected Tories short by 12 (actually short by 8 )
2015 - projected Tories short by 10 (actually a majority of 12)
2010 - projected Tories short by 19 (correct)
2005 - projected a Labour majority of 66 (correct)
2001 - projected a Labour majority of c.160 (actually a majority of 167)
1997 - projected a Labour majority of c.175 (actually a majority of 179)
1992 - projected Tories short by 25 (actually a majority of 21)
1987 - projected a Tory majority of 26 (actually a majority of 102)
1983 - projected a Tory majority of 146 (actually a majority of 144)

(They didn't provide an exact figure in 1997 & 2001, giving just a rough estimate.)

They were rather off in 1987 & 1992, but otherwise were pretty close on all the rest (though you can debate if their 2015 exit poll was 'close' or not, I suppose).

At which hour can we expect this?

10pm GMT.

[MillennialModerate]

I said this a few weeks ago, once Farage basically gave voters a reason to NOT take Brexit seriously - the election was long over. Jo Swinson isn’t a transformative figure and really Corbyn is disliked by too many for power to ever be a serious consideration.

A Conservative majority is a sure thing. More than any election in the US, Canada
or the UK in a long time - this one is the most predictable in a long long time.

I’d say a Tory majority of 25-35

[Gary J]

Very anecdotal, but I voted in Slough about 10.30am. It was raining fairly heavily, but there were still four other voters in the polling station when I was there - which is more than I usually see.

[cp]

Now we get the best part of the election process: Dogs at Polling Stations!

Actually, that's the second best part



https://twitter.com/BirminghamCats/status/1205085587600027648