UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Beezer]

Why do people automatically assume the Scottish will choose the EU over Britain? The economic and personal links between Scotland and the rest of the UK are far stronger than the ties between Scotland and the EU. Surely the Scottish have no interest in erect a hard border with their southern neighbors.

In a Britain run by Boris Brexiteers? No, they would vastly prefer the EU over that.  

Plenty of studies have shown that the Scottish are not distinctly more pro-European than the rest of the UK. And voting to join the EU is an entirely different matter than voting to stay (look at polls from Norway or Switzerland on the matter).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Imagine Houghton & Sunderland South flipping.

[Vosem]

So did the coal mining areas go tory too, I know two years ago I was mocked over this but lets see if those areas fell with the rest of the "red wall"

Depends on what you mean by "coal mining areas", but the Welsh Valleys are still Safe Labour even at these numbers considering their margins.

[Paleobrazilian]

SEDGEFIELD is likely going blue tonight.

[Storr]

Nigel Farage is a massive massive troll.

duh

[Paleobrazilian]

Swinson may lose her seat?

Oh I certainly hope so. Worst campaign I've ever seen.

[lfromnj]

Looks like West Minister is a Labour pick up rn.
Hmm I wonder where we have seen these trends happen before?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205260563888197633

Supposedly very close in Sunderland Central, but no cigar.

[Oryxslayer]

Rule one of Scottish projections: they have a extreme MOE compared to UK seats. I would not be surprised to see the SNP far lower than this exit poll. Last time they called the Lib-Dems to win Gordon in the exit poll.

Frankly, if we look at their immediate seat calls last time and compare them to the final result, there were a bunch of errors. However, the topline was good, which is what we should trust in all cases but the Scottish and seats with a significant minor (PC or smaller) party presence.

[Pericles]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

[Clyde1998]

Rule one of Scottish projections: they have a extreme MOE compared to UK seats. I would not be surprised to see the SNP far lower than this exit poll. Last time they called the Lib-Dems to win Gordon in the exit poll.

That was partly down to realignment of unionist voting - basically all the Lib Dem vote moved to the Tories. I'd be very interested how many people they survey in Scotland and Wales - as it's very difficult to extrapolate English data to Scotland and Wales due to the presence of an additional major party (and separate issues in Scotland).

[jeron]

Swinson may lose her seat?

Oh I certainly hope so. Worst campaign I've ever seen.

BBC give her only a 5% Chance of keeping her seat.

[jaichind]

Electoral Calculus revised estimated vote shares inferred from Exit poll: Con 44.5, Lab 32, Lib 12, with SNP near 50% in Scotland.

SNP at 50% sounds incredible 

[BP🌹]

Imagine Houghton & Sunderland South flipping.

Still believe in democracy?

[Philly D.]

Report: RECOUNT in Blyth Valley???

[Storr]

Report: RECOUNT in Blyth Valley???

That's the they're saying on the BBC. insane!

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

Yes, the Tory vote appear to be seriously well distributed. London and the South is moving one way, but it only wipes away a handful of Tory seats when they are on 45% nationwide. The North meanwhile is moving in the opposite direction and giving the tories tons of flips, the NE has supposedly a 11% swing.

Where is TrendsAreReal when we need him?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Imagine Houghton & Sunderland South flipping.

Still believe in democracy?

If that's what the people want, yes.

[jeron]

Nigel Farage is a massive massive troll.

Grass is green and snow is white

[Clyde1998]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

I was looking at some of the British Social Attitudes Survey data and it may be more than a Brexit realignment. It could be a realignment from left-right economic policies to authoritarian-libertarian social policies (of which the Brexit result was basically decided by) - ie. this realignment may continue beyond the resolution of Brexit.

[Clyde1998]

RECOUNT: Blyth Valley.

[Silent Hunter]

John Bercow is on fine form in Sky News.

[Pericles]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

Yes, the Tory vote appear to be seriously well distributed. London and the South is moving one way, but it only wipes away a handful of Tory seats when they are on 45% nationwide. The North meanwhile is moving in the opposite direction and giving the tories tons of flips, the NE has supposedly a 11% swing.

Where is TrendsAreReal when we need him?

Let's wait and see before judging the efficiency of the Tory vote. We may be seeing a lot of narrow gains that boost the seat-count and so make the Tory vote efficient when there is such a strong national margin, but if there was a slightly closer margin perhaps then the Tories get a lot less seats. Or perhaps this isn't the case at all. It's too early to tell.

[Horus]

Only bright spot tonight is the SNP performance.

[Storr]

Only bright spot tonight is the SNP performance.

And Corbyn being kicked to the curb.