Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Antonio the Sixth]

Due to the infighting in the Democratic Camp and Meretz old guard threatening to pushShaffir and Golan back on the list - Shaffir rebranded her Green movements as the Green Party with the threat of running solo pushing both under the threshold

ffs

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-says-he-would-be-happy-to-run-with-shaked-in-fresh-elections/

Never thought about Ayelet joining YB, I could have seen it working like a year ago but definitely not now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's an ex-IDF Chief of Staff for one thing.

Generally a sign that someone is Left rather than Right because Israel likes to be opposite-land over such things.

[Babeuf]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-says-he-would-be-happy-to-run-with-shaked-in-fresh-elections/

Never thought about Ayelet joining YB, I could have seen it working like a year ago but definitely not now.

That article is from after the first election, not from now.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-says-he-would-be-happy-to-run-with-shaked-in-fresh-elections/

Never thought about Ayelet joining YB, I could have seen it working like a year ago but definitely not now.

That article is from after the first election, not from now.

Sh*t wrong article

https://www.timesofisrael.com/yisrael-beytenu-dangles-offer-to-join-right-wing-bloc-in-bid-to-court-shaked/

[Antonio the Sixth]

....what would either of them have to gain from this??

[America Needs R'hllor]

....what would either of them have to gain from this??

Seriously. Lieberman would lose his centrist liberal voters who got him from his 5-Seat base to his 8-Seat success.

[Hnv1]

Likud internal tribunal rules that there must be a primaries for the list as well. Mayhem

[danny]

I find it hard to believe that Shaffir would run on her own, it sounds like grandstanding to create leverage to me.

[Walmart_shopper]

I find it hard to believe that Shaffir would run on her own, it sounds like grandstanding to create leverage to me.

Especially after her embarassing primary loss and subsequent departure from Labor before the last election. At some point you have to realize that politics is a team sport.

[danny]

since people were speculating here about Shaked, she will officially run with Bennet in the New Right.

[jaymichaud]

Likud internal tribunal rules that there must be a primaries for the list as well. Mayhem

What are we predicting?

[Hnv1]

Likud internal tribunal rules that there must be a primaries for the list as well. Mayhem

What are we predicting?

Honestly who knows? You can imagine the Bibi wing to grow stronger, but likud membership showed more freedom of thought at picking the list than the head

[danny]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

[jaymichaud]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

They’ll either fail or get 4 seats.

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

[jaymichaud]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

Seems to be an outlier since they’ve been consistently polling at 5 seats. Likud win 34 seats in that poll which obviously ain’t gonna happen.

Then again you’re overestimating the influence of the National Religious/“settler” right. In September the Kahanists missed the mark by a long shot, NR and BY had to join forces in order to survive and they still underperformed. This will definitely backfire

[America Needs R'hllor]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Looks to me like Peretz kinda played Smotrich this time by ensuring good spots for his party, right?

Anyway, interesting that we're seeing a replay. It'll be so funny if the New Right doesn't pass the threshold again.

It would be funnier if they both miss the threshold.

If religious zionist voters have any values left they'll not vote for a nazi to the Knesset and that could happen, but I strongly doubt it.

Also, I saw a poll today showing the Democratic Camp below the threshold. The left really needs to get its sh**t together.

Seems to be an outlier since they’ve been consistently polling at 5 seats. Likud win 34 seats in that poll which obviously ain’t gonna happen.

Then again you’re overestimating the influence of the National Religious/“settler” right. In September the Kahanists missed the mark by a long shot, NR and BY had to join forces in order to survive and they still underperformed. This will definitely backfire

Dunno, they got 5 seats in round 1 and I don't really see where else these voters will go. They should be safe with at least 4 seats. Meanwhile, as we did see in round 2, Bennet&Shaked's electoral worth is seriously overestimated (though it seems like at least 12 right-wing seats are open to voting for them, they just don't do it because Likud's pull is much stronger).

[danny]

Seems to be an outlier since they’ve been consistently polling at 5 seats. Likud win 34 seats in that poll which obviously ain’t gonna happen.

Then again you’re overestimating the influence of the National Religious/“settler” right. In September the Kahanists missed the mark by a long shot, NR and BY had to join forces in order to survive and they still underperformed. This will definitely backfire

The same URP got 5 seats in April, I don't see why that would change much this time. New Right's support is softer so there is always a chance that they fail, but in April they barely missed by under 2K votes with the somewhat similar Zehut getting 118K votes. I think they are favoured to make it in.

Likud at 34 would be higher than my prediction right now, but I don't see why it's obvious not to happen, especially if a party or two barely miss the threshold.

[catographer]

This is why I prefer majoritarian electoral systems with big tent coalition parties.

[jaichind]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Does this not mean they will be above the threshold for sure? If so why should there be any belief that the deadlock will end after the March 2020 election ?

[danny]

Does this not mean they will be above the threshold for sure? If so why should there be any belief that the deadlock will end after the March 2020 election ?

I expect them to pass, but in April they only passed by 30K votes, so it's not impossible for them to miss out if the campaign goes badly.

A similar result is indeed expected, and I don't think that more deadlock would be a surprise. However, a solution is possible even without a shift in voting, if only certain parties would change their mind and agree to something, which I think is realistic.

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzma and JH have agreed to run together, so we are getting a replay of the April election on the right (except this time Zehut isn't running).

Otzma get spots 3,6,9 which is what they demanded last time but were refused by JH.
National Union technically haven't agreed to join yet, but I don't see any other options for them.

Does this not mean they will be above the threshold for sure? If so why should there be any belief that the deadlock will end after the March 2020 election ?

No, definitely not. Both Jewish Home and New Right will almost inevitably be on the edge of the threshold and the best case scenario for the right is each getting in and netting maybe 8 or 9 mandates. Even that, though, would probably not give the right wing anything close to 61 mandates.

It seems to me that this election comes down to either a left wing majority or more deadlock that is either resolved by Liberman choosing a side (probably the right wing) in a narrow government or Netanyahu stepping down. That is actually the exact inverse of the last election, where the left didn't even dream of a majority but just wanted to keep the right from getting 61 seats. This time around I think the right is just hoping to keep Gantz from getting a majority and, at most, getting more seats than the left block.