Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

It's almost as though trusting the country's future to random generals who refuse to take meaningful positions on even the most pressing political issues is not a great idea.

Israeli politics is still captive to the shockwaves of Oslo. It's not a matter of going farther left (or right). It's about imagination. It's about thinking up a country that is bigger than ethnic boundaries, that isn't captive to the corrupt and idiotic delusions of religious bigots, that is open to the world around us instead of seeking refuge in the sadistic and suicidal comforts of Masada. The Joint List is the only party really dreaming big like this, and of course it's growing every election. But it's not enough. The Arab sector is just as buried in sectarianism and hate as the Jews. It's just that their political leaders are wonderful and the Jewish ones are not. The really good news is that a majority of voters voted three times to take a big step towards a new Israel. I don't know if it's too late by now, but at least in this country a huge number of people are beginning to awaken to a new, democratic way of doing politics.

Gantz was never really going to be a proper leader for the Israel that most Israelis voted for. So it's okay to toss him aside. I just don't know if the country can take much more before it truly is gone.

[jaymichaud]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

There's still a gap in the market for a center-left party, though. I can't see many left wingers trusting milquetoast centrists again anytime soon.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm 90% sure that Parrotguy will vote for the Joint List next election and why can't the sane Israeli left join in a Alliance. 

I doubt it My identity still includes zionism to an extent, and definitely includes being gay- that's bar me from voting for any party with Ra'am and Balad.

[jaymichaud]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

Don't you lot say this every week though? Is it for real this time?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

Don't you lot say this every week though? Is it for real this time?

Might, they're not denying this right now. If they don't join I'll be the first to applaud them but right now Michaeli is the only one taking a strong stance.

But yeah, the rumours about this are persistent and tiring

[Hnv1]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

Don't you lot say this every week though? Is it for real this time?

Yes. Peretz wants to be president, Shumli wants a sniff of minister post

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I truly don't understand what his game plan is; he just told any possible center-right voter that "Bibi is better than me; it's okay for him to be Prime Minister." He won't get any votes from them, & now he won't be getting any votes from the left either.

Israeli center-left, masochism, ads at the next election with Shaked in a bustier holding a riding crop, Yamina mandates out of Tel Aviv. I've said it before and I'll say it again.

[jaymichaud]

However unlike Zionist Union, I don't see this as B&W crashing and burning. Yesh Atid will continue to be decently successful and Lapid/Ya'alon will come out of this as a respected figures whereas almost no one will support or trust Gantz in any future elections. He really burned all of his bridges with this mess.

[jaymichaud]

I can't imagine this government lasting more than a year, so we'll be back at this soon. I expect Liberman to run with Yesh Telem, Meretz to join the Joint List (and get 20 seats, and Labor to run alone. I actually don't think the odds are bad at all for the left+Gantz to get a majority. But that's a ways off and who really knows what is left of the country at that point.

Tbh I can't see this for Meretz. I can see them doing it on their own and trying to capitalize off this ("We're the true Zionist left" "We're the only one that won't cave to Likud" etc.)

[Oryxslayer]

However unlike Zionist Union, I don't see this as B&W crashing and burning. Yesh Atid will continue to be decently successful and Lapid/Ya'alon will come out of this as a respected figures whereas almost no one will support or trust Gantz in any future elections. He really burned all of his bridges with this mess.

Yeah, I'm seeing this as the beginning of the return to 'normal' in israeli politics as the super-tickets dissolve after round three. Gantz has more or less burned his bridges so there will be some new Yesh Atid + ticket next time around - or maybe it will just be YA taking all the B&W mandates right now. Arabs got burned hard, so who knows what happens to them. Right stays fine, but no immunity means the can is just being kicked. Maybe in this deal then there are some private succession plans...

Whatever the case, I don't think this was because of cold feat. I think this was because H&H privately told Gantz that they would defect, and in doing so make the Left+Support govt nonviable (and burn Gantz for trying this and failing), likely sending us to round four depending on Levy. Round 4 would be scary for everyone involved who isn't Likud because of the pandemic, so gantz took the only path available.

[The Mikado]

So RIP B&W. Is the entire Gantz faction coming along with him or are there a handful who will defect to Yesh Atid?

The Joint List can at least take solace that they have four years as a 15 seat faction ahead of them and are getting locked in at their highest seat count ever.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disgusting.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Some silver-linings: Amir Ohana will be kicked out of the Justice Minister, Bennet won't be Defense Minister, Regev won't be Culture and Sports Minister (I think). Israeli democracy will probably survive...

[brucejoel99]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

I honestly wouldn't care that much.

[CumbrianLefty]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

Isn't that meant to be an at least moderately "respected across the board" figure?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

Isn't that meant to be an at least moderately "respected across the board" figure?

Well, the PM isn't meant to be an indicted defendant and the Speaker is supposed to respect Supreme Court verdicts but here we are

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

[Hnv1]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

7 years of immunity will give him overall immunity to the time limitation law here. Never mind that I doubt it. He likes the power, being president is meaningless to him

[brucejoel99]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

Isn't that meant to be an at least moderately "respected across the board" figure?

Meant to be? Yes. But on paper, the President is simply whomever 61 MKs say it should be.

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

I didn't say he'd be both? The implication is that Gantz replaces him upon his ascendancy to the Presidency.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

I didn't say he'd be both? The implication is that Gantz replaces him upon his ascendancy to the Presidency.

No I mean Bibi's time as PM would be over once he's President, which is a good thing. It's a good thing he'd no longer have the power of Prime Minister vested with him and all.

[Babeuf]

Seems like Lieberman and YB really got screwed here? They finally got off the fence and explicitly sided with Gantz and then the next moment he leaves them in opposition and joins the government without securing a place for them (although I guess they can't sit with the Haredim after all this?). Am I missing something?

[jaymichaud]

Seems like Lieberman and YB really got screwed here? They finally got off the fence and explicitly sided with Gantz and then the next moment he leaves them in opposition and joins the government without securing a place for them (although I guess they can't sit with the Haredim after all this?). Am I missing something?

Pretty much. Same with the Joint List. I can't see them ever putting their trust in a centrist party ever again.

I feel sorry for Lapid above anyone else though.

[brucejoel99]

Bibi as President means he can't be PM.

I didn't say he'd be both? The implication is that Gantz replaces him upon his ascendancy to the Presidency.

No I mean Bibi's time as PM would be over once he's President, which is a good thing. It's a good thing he'd no longer have the power of Prime Minister vested with him and all.

This is true, but Bibi being Bibi, maybe he tries to be Erdogan 2.0.