Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

Yair Netanyahu, in his fake news campaign to smear Gantz and claim he had lovers, had crossed another red line. He chose a random woman who had a photograph with Gantz, and after another tweet alleging Gantz is a pervert, he tweeted a screenshot of her FB profile asking "anyone know who this is". In case one of their rabid army of supporters didn't get the hint, he then tweeted a selfie of her with Gantz. She came out with a scathing social media repudiation of Yair, saying that he caused a "mass sexual harassment" on social media and promising to sue him. What a vile little weasel. Tells a lot about what kind of man his father (who's probably allowing all of that) is.

Likud's strategy right now is obviously firing up the right wing base. I don't know if they think they can be genuinely competitive with a bump in right wing turnout or if their internal data is showing a severe lag in right wing turnout that they're trying to fix, but if there is one thing we've learned this last year it's that Bibi's crazy lurches to the right at the last minute don't work like they did in 2015.

I don't think that this is even strategic. Likud promised a "positive campaign" this time but they obviously can't do anything else but an extremely negative campaign. It's how Netanyahu is clinging into power for years.

Also re: previous post. Yeah, I know the people aren't stupid (it was a Trump line he used at the people of Iowa ), though it's tempting to go that way when Netanyahu is so popular.
I hope you're right with your optimistic outlook (electorally) but my view is that we really just can't know- the narrative of Bibimentum and KL collapse could depress turnout of soft center-right and center Gantz supporters, or the fear of Bibi at 61 could have the opposite effect. My guess is that the right will probably improve on their round 2 numbers and pass the left this time, but it's hard to say and it's a game of turnout. Personally, I'm seeing a dangerous lethargy among some people who voted KL but I hope it's a false anecdote.

[Walmart_shopper]

Yair Netanyahu, in his fake news campaign to smear Gantz and claim he had lovers, had crossed another red line. He chose a random woman who had a photograph with Gantz, and after another tweet alleging Gantz is a pervert, he tweeted a screenshot of her FB profile asking "anyone know who this is". In case one of their rabid army of supporters didn't get the hint, he then tweeted a selfie of her with Gantz. She came out with a scathing social media repudiation of Yair, saying that he caused a "mass sexual harassment" on social media and promising to sue him. What a vile little weasel. Tells a lot about what kind of man his father (who's probably allowing all of that) is.

Likud's strategy right now is obviously firing up the right wing base. I don't know if they think they can be genuinely competitive with a bump in right wing turnout or if their internal data is showing a severe lag in right wing turnout that they're trying to fix, but if there is one thing we've learned this last year it's that Bibi's crazy lurches to the right at the last minute don't work like they did in 2015.

I don't think that this is even strategic. Likud promised a "positive campaign" this time but they obviously can't do anything else but an extremely negative campaign. It's how Netanyahu is clinging into power for years.

Also re: previous post. Yeah, I know the people aren't stupid (it was a Trump line he used at the people of Iowa ), though it's tempting to go that way when Netanyahu is so popular.
I hope you're right with your optimistic outlook (electorally) but my view is that we really just can't know- the narrative of Bibimentum and KL collapse could depress turnout of soft center-right and center Gantz supporters, or the fear of Bibi at 61 could have the opposite effect. My guess is that the right will probably improve on their round 2 numbers and pass the left this time, but it's hard to say and it's a game of turnout. Personally, I'm seeing a dangerous lethargy among some people who voted KL but I hope it's a false anecdote.

Yeah, to be clear, I'm pretty nervous. I wouldn't be surprised at a whole array of different outcomes. There has been such little polling, and there is bound to be some voter fatigue, so the uncertainty is high enough to be a little terrifying.

[Continential]

Yair Netanyahu, in his fake news campaign to smear Gantz and claim he had lovers, had crossed another red line. He chose a random woman who had a photograph with Gantz, and after another tweet alleging Gantz is a pervert, he tweeted a screenshot of her FB profile asking "anyone know who this is". In case one of their rabid army of supporters didn't get the hint, he then tweeted a selfie of her with Gantz. She came out with a scathing social media repudiation of Yair, saying that he caused a "mass sexual harassment" on social media and promising to sue him. What a vile little weasel. Tells a lot about what kind of man his father (who's probably allowing all of that) is.

Likud's strategy right now is obviously firing up the right wing base. I don't know if they think they can be genuinely competitive with a bump in right wing turnout or if their internal data is showing a severe lag in right wing turnout that they're trying to fix, but if there is one thing we've learned this last year it's that Bibi's crazy lurches to the right at the last minute don't work like they did in 2015.

I don't think that this is even strategic. Likud promised a "positive campaign" this time but they obviously can't do anything else but an extremely negative campaign. It's how Netanyahu is clinging into power for years.

Also re: previous post. Yeah, I know the people aren't stupid (it was a Trump line he used at the people of Iowa ), though it's tempting to go that way when Netanyahu is so popular.
I hope you're right with your optimistic outlook (electorally) but my view is that we really just can't know- the narrative of Bibimentum and KL collapse could depress turnout of soft center-right and center Gantz supporters, or the fear of Bibi at 61 could have the opposite effect. My guess is that the right will probably improve on their round 2 numbers and pass the left this time, but it's hard to say and it's a game of turnout. Personally, I'm seeing a dangerous lethargy among some people who voted KL but I hope it's a false anecdote.

Yeah, to be clear, I'm pretty nervous. I wouldn't be surprised at a whole array of different outcomes. There has been such little polling, and there is bound to be some voter fatigue, so the uncertainty is high enough to be a little terrifying.

I am doing a report in school on a international event and I'm talking about Israel's voter fatigue.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Politics fatigue" - one result of which was lower turnout - was certainly a factor in the bigger than expected Tory win in the UK a few months ago.

[Oryxslayer]

"Politics fatigue" - one result of which was lower turnout - was certainly a factor in the bigger than expected Tory win in the UK a few months ago.

Reminder that voter turnout went up from election 1 to election 2. The types of voters turning out changed a bit, but the increasing elections appear to have polarized voters even more than usual, and polarization lowers the psychological barriers to casting a vote.

[Walmart_shopper]

"Politics fatigue" - one result of which was lower turnout - was certainly a factor in the bigger than expected Tory win in the UK a few months ago.

Reminder that voter turnout went up from election 1 to election 2. The types of voters turning out changed a bit, but the increasing elections appear to have polarized voters even more than usual, and polarization lowers the psychological barriers to casting a vote.

Kind of. Overall turnout increased slightly entirely due to a 10 point jump among Arab voters. Jewish turnour went down, almost certainly due to voter fatigue. I will buy a latte for whomever can figure out what will happen this time, because it really is a mystery.

[Walmart_shopper]

It looks like Channel 12 got caught with their pants down. They aired a "bombshell" video of Gantz's security advisor calling him "dangerous for Israel" because he wouldn't start World War 3 with Iran.  It was an obvious hit job, albeit weird given Bibi's inability to deal with Gaza much less Iran and its regional allies. Channel 12 unquestionably aired the tape, which sounds entirely like a scripted set-up.

As it turns out, Bibi met with the rabbi a day before that same rabbi released the recording. Hilariously, Channel 12 is the only news outlet right now not reporting this as main story on their front page.

God help us if we are too stupid to see through this kind of nonsense. This is like flat-earth kind of dumb at this point. I doubt the baldness of the hypocrisy and ugliness will move people on the right one way or the other, but I would be surprised if it doesn't create a rally to the flag effect for Gantz, who is a popular and sympathetic figure already. That would seem to be exactly what the Likud would want to avoid, but who even knows anymore.

[jaymichaud]

Hmm I'd probably still vote for B&W as a tactical vote. But yes I'm predicting a repeat of September-November.

I hate the term but Likud are straight up gaslighting the entire country. Pretending that they want to put a stop to the nonsense while willingly prolonging it to save their own backs. I'll disrespect anyone who happily votes for them at this point.

[Walmart_shopper]

Final polls before Election Day:

Channel 12 has Likud leading KL 33-31 and the right bloc leading 58-56. Channel 13 has it tied between Likud and KL, the Joint List with 15 (!) seats, and the left bloc leading 57-56. Both polls show Liberman crashing, which may help explain Bibi's polling bump as Russian right wingers may be rallying to the right. Obviously the result depends on Arab turnout, which I beginning to think could not only be the story of tye night but also the reason that Netanyahu gets finally evicted from 10 Balfour. But we'll see soon.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rarely have I seen a campaign better run, more exciting, and more aspirational than the Joint List's election campaign so far. And rarely have I seen a campaign ad more deeply moving than this new spot:

https://youtu.be/TJqxDbT1fwc

It's in Hebrew, but it's probably worth learning the language just to enjoy this piece of political art.

[jaymichaud]

A few things:

- Peretz is pressing for a B&W, Labor-Gesher, Meretz minority government with YB and Joint List as confidence and supply.
- Lieberman disapproves of this, saying that he wants to actually be part of a coalition and is willing to do this with any party that isn't Joint List, UTJ or Shas.
- Lieberman says Likud will not annex the Jordan Valley and Netanyahu told King Abdullah this.
- Odeh is hoping for 16 seats. Only priority is getting Likud out of power.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It looks like Channel 12 got caught with their pants down. They aired a "bombshell" video of Gantz's security advisor calling him "dangerous for Israel" because he wouldn't start World War 3 with Iran.  It was an obvious hit job, albeit weird given Bibi's inability to deal with Gaza much less Iran and its regional allies. Channel 12 unquestionably aired the tape, which sounds entirely like a scripted set-up.

As it turns out, Bibi met with the rabbi a day before that same rabbi released the recording. Hilariously, Channel 12 is the only news outlet right now not reporting this as main story on their front page.

God help us if we are too stupid to see through this kind of nonsense. This is like flat-earth kind of dumb at this point. I doubt the baldness of the hypocrisy and ugliness will move people on the right one way or the other, but I would be surprised if it doesn't create a rally to the flag effect for Gantz, who is a popular and sympathetic figure already. That would seem to be exactly what the Likud would want to avoid, but who even knows anymore.

Lol, and then Bibi says that Channel 12 is nothing more than a leftist propaganda channel. The truth is, of course, that the right has several propaganda outlets while the left has none (Haaretz is the only thing that comes close but as a leftist newspaper, it obviously critiques the left a lot because that's how leftists are). Anyway, my hunch for the cause of this recording being aired is one name: Amit Segal.

[America Needs R'hllor]

After some speculation that he'll drop out, Ben Gvir made it clear that Otzma will run to the end:
He claimed that Netanyahu promised May Golan (Likud number 34) would serve as an Otzma MK and that the law barring candidate who incite racism from running would be repealed. Netanyahu, according to Ben Gvir, rescinded the promise this morning.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Opening a betting category: which parties run a "we could be erased!" gevalt campaign tomorrow?

My bet: Labour-Gesher-Meretz will find a way, and Yamina as well. I'd actually say that Lieberman is more at risk than either, but gevalt campaigns aren't his style.

[jaymichaud]

Opening a betting category: which parties run a "we could be erased!" gevalt campaign tomorrow?

My bet: Labour-Gesher-Meretz will find a way, and Yamina as well. I'd actually say that Lieberman is more at risk than either, but gevalt campaigns aren't his style.

Not in the way you described it but Yamina, 100%.

Imagine if they got like 6 seats or something?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Opening a betting category: which parties run a "we could be erased!" gevalt campaign tomorrow?

My bet: Labour-Gesher-Meretz will find a way, and Yamina as well. I'd actually say that Lieberman is more at risk than either, but gevalt campaigns aren't his style.

Not in the way you described it but Yamina, 100%.

Imagine if they got like 6 seats or something?

Both them and Labour-Gesher-Meretz could drop hints that they might remain below the threshold, I wouldn't put it past them. In round 1 Labour hinted that they might get erased, and that's after polling at double digits.

[Walmart_shopper]

After some speculation that he'll drop out, Ben Gvir made it clear that Otzma will run to the end:
He claimed that Netanyahu promised May Golan (Likud number 34) would serve as an Otzma MK and that the law barring candidate who incite racism from running would be repealed. Netanyahu, according to Ben Gvir, rescinded the promise this morning.

And that he would bulldoze a Bedouin village within six weeks.

[Walmart_shopper]

Opening a betting category: which parties run a "we could be erased!" gevalt campaign tomorrow?

My bet: Labour-Gesher-Meretz will find a way, and Yamina as well. I'd actually say that Lieberman is more at risk than either, but gevalt campaigns aren't his style.

Not in the way you described it but Yamina, 100%.

Imagine if they got like 6 seats or something?

I doubt they'll get more than 6 or 7. Same with Liberman.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean, it's always a bit weird to be Gevelting when you are in the metaphorical 'pack' of returns. It makes sense when you are neck and neck for the top job like B&W and Likud, or when you are perilously close to the threshold. If you are between those two, marketing such a message is considerably harder. I'm sure some tickets will find a way though.

[jaymichaud]

My final prediction:

Blue and White - 34
Likud - 33
Joint List - 14
Labor-Gesher-Meretz - 10
Shas - 9
UTJ - 7
Yisrael Beiteinu - 7
Yamina - 6

B&W Led Bloc - 58
Likud Led Bloc - 54
YB - 7

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm kind of torn. My gut says that tomorrow night will be something of a stunner. That Arab turnout will be phenomenal, and that the Joint List will even merit a noticeable bump in Jewish support. That right wing voters will he disproportionately likely to stay home. That Nathan Ethel's admission that hate is what binds the right wing will be something of moment of self-realization for tens of thousands of Israelis who decide that they will no longer sacrifice the future and cohesion of the country to serve the interests of Haredi rabbis and one man under indictment. That the country is not Bibi and his lamentable band sycophants who prop him up at our loss and their own gain, but that for better or worse the country is all of us. It is Jews and Arabs and religious and secular and Russians and Mizrahim and blacks and whites and Christians and Buddhists and Haredim and Muslims. Israel is the Holocaust survivor having her groceries rung up by a child of the Nakba at a Shufersol in Haifa. It is an Arab doctor saving a sick child from a settlement. It is a Russian Orthodox immigrant daringly trying falafel for the first time, and a childless yuppie in Tel Aviv teaching a classroom full of Sudanese refugees. It is us, and the divisive politics of the right threaten our very exiatence as such. And thus the Arab-left bloc will get 61 seats.

My head says that, after all, it's Israel, and nothing good ever comes from Nazareth (or anywhere else in our little country). That the right wing scare tactics are, to at least some extent, working, helping to siphon off votes from Liberman and KL. That an Arab/center-left majority is a fantasy that is unlikely to happen in a country captive to unthinking, superstitious traditionalism,  ethnic tribalism, apocalyptic religious fundamentalism, and a masochistic Masada complex that moves us all to self-ruin just to prove to the world that that it hates us, it really, really hates us.

But whatever. Here is my revised prediction.

Blue and White 35
Likud 34
Joint List 15
Labor-Meretz-Gesher 9
Shas 9
UTJ 7
Yisrael Beyteinu 6
Yamina 5

Center-left-Arab 59
Religious right 55

But the complete reverse wouldn't surprise me.

[Hnv1]

Final prediction

Likud 35
B&W 34
JL 13
LGM 9
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Yamina 7
YB 6

[America Needs R'hllor]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

[Hnv1]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

Likud voters don’t give two tosses on that, they know Bibi is a liar and a crook and that’s why they like him. They think this is part of the reasons is a diplomatic mastermind and whatever. You’re looking for decency where there is none

[Walmart_shopper]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

Likud voters don’t give two tosses on that, they know Bibi is a liar and a crook and that’s why they like him. They think this is part of the reasons is a diplomatic mastermind and whatever. You’re looking for decency where there is none

25% of Likud voters are Saar supporters who don't support Bibi. They are usually socially liberal, younger Ashkenazi voters. They could go three ways. They could stay home because they won't leave the Likud but they won'y support Bibi. They could vote for Bibi because, hey, it's better than the Arabs. Or they could actually cross over and suppoet Gantz. I don't think the last option is likely, because those voters hqve already crossed over by now. But if this keeps a single mandate worth of soft Likud voters from bothering to vote--and it might--that's a big deal.