Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

Might I remind you all that this is a party portraying itself as competent to rule?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

I don’t see a big deal, every party running no matter how small can get those figures. Part for divorced men running away from court documents there’s nothing in the data that really breaches privacy

It's not dangerous within Israel, its the danger that said data could end up in the hands of malicious actors. Russia has little desire to influence Israel to the degree it pulls strings in European politics, but certain middle eastern neighbors may like such data.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

I don’t see a big deal, every party running no matter how small can get those figures. Part for divorced men running away from court documents there’s nothing in the data that really breaches privacy

It's not dangerous within Israel, its the danger that said data could end up in the hands of malicious actors. Russia has little desire to influence Israel to the degree it pulls strings in European politics, but certain middle eastern neighbors may like such data.

Lol our governments BEEN spying on us for years, they're just sorry they got caught this time.

[Intell]

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-begins-mapping-out-West-Bank-land-for-annexation-after-election-616961

Israel is totally not a quasi-apartheid and fascist state when they want to annex foreign land aka Russia style, while wanting to kick Arabs from the Israeli state.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-begins-mapping-out-West-Bank-land-for-annexation-after-election-616961

Israel is totally not a quasi-apartheid and fascist state when they want to annex foreign land aka Russia style, while wanting to kick Arabs from the Israeli state.

As a Jew, I'm looking forward to all criticism of this moronic plan being unduly labeled as anti-Semitic.

[jaymichaud]

The deleted comment 🤡

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1227954544279248896

Doesn't change the fact that they still would need outside support from The Joint List to govern according to polls.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1227954544279248896

Doesn't change the fact that they still would need outside support from The Joint List to govern according to polls.

Didn’t Yisrael BaAliyah sit with Meretz back in the 90s?

Also what’s the key differences between Meretz and Labor at this point? I understand the differences in the 70s/80s/90s (Religion and state, social issues, the Palestinians etc.), but in 2020?

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1227954544279248896

Doesn't change the fact that they still would need outside support from The Joint List to govern according to polls.

Yes, and it's Liberman so take what he says for what it's worth.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Netanyahu announced former Jerusalem Mayor, MK Nir Barkat, as his future Finance Minister as part of the new attempt to appeal to liberals. Doesn't seem like it helped in the polls.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu announced former Jerusalem Mayor, MK Nir Barkat, as his future Finance Minister as part of the new attempt to appeal to liberals. Doesn't seem like it helped in the polls.

Literally nothing Netanyahu (and Trump) have done over the course of the campaign have moved the needle. That's hilarious. But I also get the sense that it's not quite right. It's a small polling error away from a massive shift between the blocs. The way the parties (and especially Liberman, who now praises) Labor-Meretz) are talking the sense is that Gantz is aiming straight ahead for a center-left minority coalition, and that that is the likeliest outcome. But the Bibi bloc is only a handful of seats away from a majority, and if enough people in the Center (of the country, not the political spectrum) just shrug at Gantz and stay home, or if the Arabs do so, then maybe Bibi pulls it out.

For what it's worth--which is admittedly not much--I stand by my campaign-long prediction that the polls, though showing Gantz and the left only 3 to 4 seats away from a majority, are almost certainly overestimating right wing turnout and that the left should get at least 60 seats. Bibi is toxic to all but the diehard Likudniks and Haredim, and he is being flanked left and right by growing discontent at his sclerotic influence in government. The polls do not capture this. Indeed they arguably cannot, since the selection bias inherent in polling can fail to capture a major drop (or uptick) in turnout. The polls failed to catch the solid Arab turnout in September. I think they probably are failing to capture the drop in right wing turnout in March.

On the other hand, Hamas is perhaps Bibi's most devoted political ally, and one cannot dismiss the possibility of Netanyahu looking at ugly internals trying to actually start a war.  He has certainly been talking up the possibility lately.

[Hnv1]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority

[jaymichaud]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority

Lol Likud's voterbase won't get any bigger... they pulled every single trick out of the bag a long time ago

[Oryxslayer]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority

Lol Likud's voterbase won't get any bigger... they pulled every single trick out of the bag a long time ago

I think it's more a fear of a shrinking base rather than a growing one. The fundamentals of the contest don't favor likud: Bibi trial, repeated elections, and political stalemate all provide incentives to stay home if you are a likud voter. Changing parties is difficult considering the tribal nature of Israeli political pillars, but sitting at home is easy if you dissaprove of Bibi but approve of likud. So they want everyone and their mother to keep turning out.

[warandwar]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

[Continential]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

I do wonder, what would be a The Jewish Home-Joint List voter?

[Hnv1]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

This campaign as you said is to bite in the Meretz flank. Haredi, Ethiopian, or Russian voters are going to move a inch towards the JL.

There’s a radical left group called Standing together with a similar campaign of class-uniting-identity politics stand. It didn’t work for them and it won’t work in the future.

[Hnv1]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

I do wonder, what would be a The Jewish Home-Joint List voter?

I do know a NU-JL voter, though not in successive elections. A radical settler from the hills turned left libertarian. Though still very religious.

[jaymichaud]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

No. They (we?) have their own parties to act in their interests.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Which parties do Ethiopian Jews generally favour?

[danny]

Which parties do Ethiopian Jews generally favour?

Likud in first, followed by BW and then Shas.

[danny]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Which parties do Ethiopian Jews generally favour?

Likud in first, followed by BW and then Shas.

Is this because of any specific issues, or the same kinds of reasons as Likud does better with Mizrahis?

[Continential]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Why in the world would any Arab support Likud and why does Bibi think that Arabs could support Likud.

[jaymichaud]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Lol Arab48?