The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

This early on, they always deny interest. If she's in, she won't announce until after the 2022 midterms.

Yea, no serious candidate would announce until 2023. It’s all testing the waters and watching the environment till then.

[Real Texan Politics]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

Based in the last few cycles. The more someone says they’re not going to run, the more I think they are going to run

Based on that logic, Michelle Obama could be the democratic nominee in 2028 if republicans win in '24.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

Based in the last few cycles. The more someone says they’re not going to run, the more I think they are going to run

Based on that logic, Michelle Obama could be the democratic nominee in 2028 if republicans win in '24.

Michell Obama hasn't been randomly visiting Iowa and New Hampshire along with running a national ad campagin with her name in it.

[Real Texan Politics]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

Based in the last few cycles. The more someone says they’re not going to run, the more I think they are going to run

Based on that logic, Michelle Obama could be the democratic nominee in 2028 if republicans win in '24.

Michell Obama hasn't been randomly visiting Iowa and New Hampshire along with running a national ad campagin with her name in it.

Yeah and I'm not saying she's gonna run, in fact I don't even think she will.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Corker 2024? Politico is bringing up the possibility: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/bob-corker-future-trump-456588

[redjohn]

Corker 2024? Politico is bringing up the possibility: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/bob-corker-future-trump-456588

Would be great for him to run and reject Trumpism, but he'd burn out quickly. There's states where Corker would do better in a Dem primary than in a GOP primary, which says it all in such a polarized environment.

[Mr. Morden]

Corker 2024? Politico is bringing up the possibility: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/bob-corker-future-trump-456588

Here’s the relevant excerpt about a run for future office:

Now with Trump on his way out and the GOP reckoning with Trumpism, Corker isn’t ruling out another run for office. He said that he has completed his self-imposed two-year sabbatical from public life, though his two terms in the Senate were enough to satisfy his desire to legislate.

His state's governorship is up in 2022, and obviously a wide-open presidential primary waits in 2024. Corker has never considered challenging Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R), according to a source familiar with his thinking.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico on Trump’s vanishing 2024 plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/trump-2024-campaign-456692

After he lost his reelection bid in November, Donald Trump immediately told allies he planned to run for president again in 2024, preparing to announce as soon as Inauguration Day.

He began backing off the idea after learning that running would require him to release a new round of financial documents that would make him vulnerable to his ongoing criminal and civil investigations and lawsuits, according to two Republicans close to Trump.

Then came last week.
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In interviews, more than half a dozen Republicans who had supported or worked for Trump say the president isn’t likely to run again, though he may tease it. If Trump changes his mind again and chooses to run, some said they would urge him not to, while others hope he’d be talked out of it.

“I think nothing is going to happen,” said a Trump friend. “He won’t be around in 2024. He’s not going to run. He’s going to f**k around and say he’s going to run. … He’ll tease. I don’t think he’s ever going to say ‘I won’t run.’ He just won’t run."

[tosk]

Politico on Trump’s vanishing 2024 plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/trump-2024-campaign-456692

After he lost his reelection bid in November, Donald Trump immediately told allies he planned to run for president again in 2024, preparing to announce as soon as Inauguration Day.

He began backing off the idea after learning that running would require him to release a new round of financial documents that would make him vulnerable to his ongoing criminal and civil investigations and lawsuits, according to two Republicans close to Trump.

Then came last week.
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In interviews, more than half a dozen Republicans who had supported or worked for Trump say the president isn’t likely to run again, though he may tease it. If Trump changes his mind again and chooses to run, some said they would urge him not to, while others hope he’d be talked out of it.

“I think nothing is going to happen,” said a Trump friend. “He won’t be around in 2024. He’s not going to run. He’s going to f**k around and say he’s going to run. … He’ll tease. I don’t think he’s ever going to say ‘I won’t run.’ He just won’t run."

dont give me hope

[boltzy_]

Dozens of Republicans will try running (possibly including Trump, but I doubt this because he seems like the kind of person to go down the Johnson route and eat and smoke his way to a heart attack. Not to mention the countless number of court cases he'll deal with after leaving office), but only a handful will ever even make it to Iowa. Mike Pence seems like a very logical choice, but he has no appeal to anyone who isn't an Evangelical and a cardboard cutout of himself would give him a run for his money. Additionally, history isn't on his side; the last time a one term VP ran for president was '84, and we all know how that worked out. Dan Quayle tried in 2000, but that never went anywhere. The point is, even winning the nomination is a vertical climb for Pence.

The Republicans with the best chance of getting the nomination are (in no particular order) Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley (these two are very controversial among the general population, but it's hard for anyone to argue they have been more loyal than them in recent months). Haley is a non-White woman, which would give the GOP the diversity it desperately wants and needs, same for Cruz, but more so for Haley. Hawley has similar credentials to Cruz, but has established himself as a critic of Big Tech, which would give him more appeal to independents, but he's probably ended up alienating a lot of them by his support of the Capitol riot. Pompeo could frame himself as the anti-China and the anti-endless war candidate, but he doesn't appear to have much of a personality either. The battle for the Republican nomination would probably come down to Haley and Cruz. It's hard to say who would come out on top but it's very likely the convention produces either a Haley/Cruz or Cruz/Haley ticket.

The Democratic primaries are a bit more opaque. Biden probably won't say whether he'll run for a second term until the summer of '23. He appears to be healthy for a 78 year old and both of his parents lived into their 90's, but the office of president has a reputation for causing rapid ageing. Right now I'm leaning towards Biden not running for reelection, but who knows? Probably not even Biden himself. Should Biden step aside, VP Kamala Harris would be a shoe in for the nomination, permitting Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez doesn't successfully primary against Sen. Schumer or Trump doesn't land in hot water with the state of NY, causing Gov. Cuomo to become a hero to Democrats and anyone who hates Trump, leading him to reverse his previous stance that he would not run. It's hard to say who Harris would pick as a running mate (probably a White man from the South or Midwest), but it will most likely be her heading the ticket.

[VAR]

Dozens of Republicans will try running (possibly including Trump, but I doubt this because he seems like the kind of person to go down the Johnson route and eat and smoke his way to a heart attack. Not to mention the countless number of court cases he'll deal with after leaving office), but only a handful will ever even make it to Iowa. Mike Pence seems like a very logical choice, but he has no appeal to anyone who isn't an Evangelical and a cardboard cutout of himself would give him a run for his money. Additionally, history isn't on his side; the last time a one term VP ran for president was '84, and we all know how that worked out. Dan Quayle tried in 2000, but that never went anywhere. The point is, even winning the nomination is a vertical climb for Pence.

The Republicans with the best chance of getting the nomination are (in no particular order) Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley (these two are very controversial among the general population, but it's hard for anyone to argue they have been more loyal than them in recent months). Haley is a non-White woman, which would give the GOP the diversity it desperately wants and needs, same for Cruz, but more so for Haley. Hawley has similar credentials to Cruz, but has established himself as a critic of Big Tech, which would give him more appeal to independents, but he's probably ended up alienating a lot of them by his support of the Capitol riot. Pompeo could frame himself as the anti-China and the anti-endless war candidate, but he doesn't appear to have much of a personality either. The battle for the Republican nomination would probably come down to Haley and Cruz. It's hard to say who would come out on top but it's very likely the convention produces either a Haley/Cruz or Cruz/Haley ticket.

The Democratic primaries are a bit more opaque. Biden probably won't say whether he'll run for a second term until the summer of '23. He appears to be healthy for a 78 year old and both of his parents lived into their 90's, but the office of president has a reputation for causing rapid ageing. Right now I'm leaning towards Biden not running for reelection, but who knows? Probably not even Biden himself. Should Biden step aside, VP Kamala Harris would be a shoe in for the nomination, permitting Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez doesn't successfully primary against Sen. Schumer or Trump doesn't land in hot water with the state of NY, causing Gov. Cuomo to become a hero to Democrats and anyone who hates Trump, leading him to reverse his previous stance that he would not run. It's hard to say who Harris would pick as a running mate (probably a White man from the South or Midwest), but it will most likely be her heading the ticket.

Welcome to the forum! Good first post.

[Blackacre]

assuming Trump doesn't get banned from holding public office, we're in for the most boring primary season since I was 4 years old.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

assuming Trump doesn't get banned from holding public office, we're in for the most boring primary season since I was 4 years old.

Or it could be a 2016 redux!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Corker 2024? Politico is bringing up the possibility: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/bob-corker-future-trump-456588

Here’s the relevant excerpt about a run for future office:

Now with Trump on his way out and the GOP reckoning with Trumpism, Corker isn’t ruling out another run for office. He said that he has completed his self-imposed two-year sabbatical from public life, though his two terms in the Senate were enough to satisfy his desire to legislate.

His state's governorship is up in 2022, and obviously a wide-open presidential primary waits in 2024. Corker has never considered challenging Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R), according to a source familiar with his thinking.

Bob Corker would be DOA in a primary against Bill Lee, so it makes sense that he's not considering it.  Lee has angered some parts of the base, but it's over the sorts of things that they would dislike Corker even more.  For instance, Lee got some flack about a year ago for allowing refugees to resettle in Tennessee, citing his faith, and some feel that Lee has abused his powers in terms of covid restrictions (even though we have no statewide mask mandate, restrictions on businesses, or restrictions on private or religious gatherings).  I can't imagine those people going for Corker, and I think Lee has pretty strong support other than that.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley has formed a PAC:

https://www.postandcourier.com/columbia/nikki-haley-starts-pac-as-her-expected-2024-white-house-bid-takes-shape/article_78e3ab50-55f1-11eb-9421-3f3b7a293f1f.html

The PAC, named after her other political group Stand for America, will be “laser-focused on the 2022 midterms and electing a conservative force to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to serve as a bulwark against the liberal agendas of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi,” Haley said in an email to supporters Wednesday.

Haley has demurred when asked about her presidential ambitions. But she has taken several steps since leaving the United Nations at the end of 2018 to suggest she will run, including releasing a second book and starting the first Stand for America political advocacy group. 

In a filing with the Federal Election Commission, the new PAC lists Bradley Crate of Massachusetts as the treasurer. Crate’s firm was the treasurer for Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and he was a top financial officer in Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. 
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Importantly, the PAC will pay for Haley to travel around the country to campaign for other candidates, a move that will provide her more publicity among voters while building GOP allies ahead of a 2024 White House bid.

[Real Texan Politics]

Haley has formed a PAC:

https://www.postandcourier.com/columbia/nikki-haley-starts-pac-as-her-expected-2024-white-house-bid-takes-shape/article_78e3ab50-55f1-11eb-9421-3f3b7a293f1f.html

The PAC, named after her other political group Stand for America, will be “laser-focused on the 2022 midterms and electing a conservative force to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to serve as a bulwark against the liberal agendas of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi,” Haley said in an email to supporters Wednesday.

Haley has demurred when asked about her presidential ambitions. But she has taken several steps since leaving the United Nations at the end of 2018 to suggest she will run, including releasing a second book and starting the first Stand for America political advocacy group. 

In a filing with the Federal Election Commission, the new PAC lists Bradley Crate of Massachusetts as the treasurer. Crate’s firm was the treasurer for Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and he was a top financial officer in Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. 
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Importantly, the PAC will pay for Haley to travel around the country to campaign for other candidates, a move that will provide her more publicity among voters while building GOP allies ahead of a 2024 White House bid.

So Crate may be her treasurer for her campaign?

[Mr. Morden]

If true, then I guess Trump won't be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee:

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1351704630045134851

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If true, then I guess Trump won't be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee:

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1351704630045134851

Good good, split the vote

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Trump reportedly musing on whether he’ll be too old to run next time:

https://www.axios.com/off-the-rails-trump-last-stand-georgia-96520903-6405-47e7-962b-beac06abdb68.html

"Mr. President, if it doesn't work out, will you run again?" McIntosh asked. Trump's response was a rare and transitory blip from his usual strident pose. "Yeah, I'm thinking about that," he said. "But you know, I'm going to be four years older."

[Joey1996]

Harris/Buttigieg vs Hayley/Hawley calling it now

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to Politico, Biden plans to run for reelection in 2024.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879

“He is planning to run again,” Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), one of Biden’s friends and close allies on Capitol Hill, told Transition Playbook this past weekend. “He knows that we are at the middle of an absolute turning point, a pivot point in American history. And he's up for the challenge.”

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Evan McMullin and Mindy Finn, way back from 2016, are doing a "where do we go from here" town hall tomorrow night.

[Mr. Morden]

According to Politico, Biden plans to run for reelection in 2024.

I think that overstates things slightly.  The headline is "Biden 'is planning to run again' in 2024", with the "is planning to run again" in quotes.  They're reporting that Coons is *saying* that Biden plans to run again, rather than that they (Politico) independently confirm this.  The fact that Coons says this on the record as opposed to it being anonymously sourced makes me a little *less* likely to believe it, since why would Coons be blabbing about such a thing if it's top secret information?  (And if it's true, but *not* top secret information, then Biden or a spokesman would just say it.)

More likely, Coons means Biden "is planning to run again" in the sense that he's planning for that contingency, even if he might still not pull the trigger.  But I guess we'll see if other sources confirm this or not.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Matt Gaetz was on Hannity tonight with Lauren Boebert, and Tom Cotton will be on Fox and Friends tomorrow morning.

[blackentheborg]

Matt Gaetz was on Hannity tonight with Lauren Boebert

Two prime candidates for a potential Patriot Party, right?