The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177

Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

[NewYorkExpress]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

I liked Warren this time, but I won't vote for her in 2024, regardless of what I think of her politics. I like my Presidential candidates on the younger side of seventy.

[brucejoel99]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177

Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Perhaps she's acknowledging where she is in her political career? Makes sense: one of the things I've always admired the most about her is how she always seems to know who she is & where she can be the most helpful; she's also so completely honest.

As somebody who planned on being a supporter of hers in her next run, though, I'm saddened but nevertheless accept it. I hope she's more able to enjoy Bailey & her family life.

[brucejoel99]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

I liked Warren this time, but I won't vote for her in 2024, regardless of what I think of her politics. I like my Presidential candidates on the younger side of seventy. show prejudice & discriminate on the grounds of a person's age regardless of whether or not there's any evidence providing a legitimate reason to do so & am, therefore, ageist.

FTFY.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo was asked about the new poll showing him leading the 2024 field, and gives a no comment on his 2024 intentions:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/cuomo-shocking-to-see-poll-showing-him-leading-2024-democratic-field/2568009/

"The poll was shocking to me, frankly," Cuomo said during a news conference Friday, saying all of his support "must be from the briefings and from what New Yorkers did on COVID.

"I applaud New Yorkers and I think it's reflective of the actions that New Yorkers took ... and possibly my rapier wit and stunning sense of humor," Cuomo said. "It was shocking to me."

He steadfastly refused to run for president this year, despite a brief "draft Cuomo" movement during the depths of the coronavirus pandemic. He did not say during Friday's call whether he'd actually consider a 2024 run.

[Orwell]

Cuomo in the past has issued blanket denials on running in 2024. This is an evolution.

[ShadowRocket]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177

Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Perhaps she's acknowledging where she is in her political career? Makes sense: one of the things I've always admired the most about her is how she always seems to know who she is & where she can be the most helpful; she's also so completely honest.

As somebody who planned on being a supporter of hers in her next run, though, I'm saddened but nevertheless accept it. I hope she's more able to enjoy Bailey & her family life.

That would be my guess. I hate to say because I'm a fan of her as well, but she did recently turn 71 and will be 75 on Inauguration Day 2025.  That fact alone may be playing into her thinking regarding a second run. Especially if Biden pulls off two terms contrary to conventional wisdom.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

[President Johnson]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

[brucejoel99]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

Politico just put out a good article on this, actually:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Basically, it had nothing to do with Beau passing away & everything to do with the fact that Obama just liked that Hillary would govern similarly to him in terms of that 'technocratic' style & focus, whereas Biden is more interpersonal, so Obamaworld (including Obama himself) basically wrote Biden off.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

Politico just put out a good article on this, actually:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Basically, it had nothing to do with Beau passing away & everything to do with the fact that Obama just liked that Hillary would govern similarly to him in terms of that 'technocratic' style & focus, whereas Biden is more interpersonal, so Obamaworld (including Obama himself) basically wrote Biden off.

Clowns who want their candidate to talk to the beltway and not their constituents. Let this primary and the foundering of many sympathetic candidates’ bids be the end of that nonsense.

[brucejoel99]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

Politico just put out a good article on this, actually:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Basically, it had nothing to do with Beau passing away & everything to do with the fact that Obama just liked that Hillary would govern similarly to him in terms of that 'technocratic' style & focus, whereas Biden is more interpersonal, so Obamaworld (including Obama himself) basically wrote Biden off.

Clowns who want their candidate to talk to the beltway and not their constituents. Let this primary and the foundering of many sympathetic candidates’ bids be the end of that nonsense.

Yeah, "technocratic eye-rolling" was a particularly cute phrase. The way Biden makes connections with people, he must be doing something right.

And something interesting to me if Biden gets elected is that, in a way, he'll have really had a fascinating underdog story. Obama said "Joe always finds a way to f**k things up," & it sure looked like that after the Nevada caucus, but then he went on to have an incredible comeback story for the ages when he cashed in on decades of goodwill stemming from his interpersonal relationships in order to win South Carolina with virtually no money spent. Even Bernie bowing out early was because Biden formed a relationship with him long before anybody would've given Bernie the time of day. Everybody doubted him this whole primary & he still proved them wrong. Honestly, it's pretty inspiring, especially when you find out that Obama wasn't helping at all, which feels like something of a surprise, given just how close everybody presumes they are.

I hope Biden goes the distance & proves everybody that doubted him since the '80s wrong. It'd be a hell of a story, in addition to being good for our country.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cardi-b-aoc-endorsement-trnd/index.html

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1294623988656660481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%...

That's not even an attempt at a denial.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cardi-b-aoc-endorsement-trnd/index.html

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1294623988656660481

That's not even an attempt at a denial.

Can't wait for conservative manbabies to be more triggered than ever before in just 4 years' time

[Roll Roons]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cardi-b-aoc-endorsement-trnd/index.html

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1294623988656660481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%...

That's not even an attempt at a denial.

I just cannot fathom how that song is popular. Cardi B sucks.

[Mr. Morden]

One clue to watch for at the national conventions in a normal year is, are there any potential candidates who make a point of meeting with the delegations from early primary states.  That's presumably out the window this time around because the whole thing is remote, but I guess there remains a small chance that one or more potential candidates does a conference call with said delegates?  I guess we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

[NewYorkExpress]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

[brucejoel99]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

Donald Trump being deprived of the nomination next week is more likely than the scenario you describe of Bernie primarying an incumbent Biden.

[YE]

Bernie needs to be institutionalized if he even thinks about running again.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

Donald Trump being deprived of the nomination next week is more likely than the scenario you describe of Bernie primarying an incumbent Biden.

This is the same guy who suggested Obama should get a primary challenge. Why wouldn't he (or Ocasio-Cortez, for that matter) try to primary out Biden?

[brucejoel99]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

Donald Trump being deprived of the nomination next week is more likely than the scenario you describe of Bernie primarying an incumbent Biden.

This is the same guy who suggested Obama should get a primary challenge. Why wouldn't he (or Ocasio-Cortez, for that matter) try to primary out Biden?

Asking about an AOC primary challenge is moving the goalposts with regards to your original claim, but Bernie wouldn't primary Biden because he & Biden are actually friends, because the agenda Biden will be implementing as President will be infinitely more progressive than Obama's was, & because - whenever he's been asked about it - he seems completely uninterested in running again.

Those enough reasons?

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

Some would-be candidates are traveling to early primary states despite the pandemic. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took a break from his busy overseas travel schedule for a recent appearance at the Iowa Family Leader summit, a regular stop for presidential hopefuls. Paul is expected to campaign this fall for congressional candidates in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Noem is slated to headline a September political dinner in Iowa and is expected to make a preelection appearance in New Hampshire to campaign for Trump.

In other cases, prospective White House contenders are using the 2020 election to develop alliances that could pay off in four years. Cruz has long been criticized for not getting along with his colleagues, but the Texas senator is aiming to raise millions of dollars for down-ballot House candidates by hosting a donor conference in Aspen, Colo., this week.

Earlier this year, Rick Scott invited a half-dozen Republicans up for election onto his private plane to attend a series of fundraisers across Florida.

Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has been endorsing candidates through the Empower America Project, an organization devoted to diversifying the party. Paul has been among the most aggressive, spending millions through his super PAC to boost Republican candidates.

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

Though the schedule was still being finalized early this week, Cruz and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley are not expected to have slots. It is unclear whether Rick Scott or Paul will.

[brucejoel99]

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

snip

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

snip

If there's a significant number of people really thinking of running for the Republican nomination in 2024, then I'm curious why we're not hearing more about back-biting & internal sabotage of the re-election campaign.

These folks do understand that if he wins in November, then the 2024 nomination isn't worth winning, right? Or are they actually that dense?

[NewYorkExpress]

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

snip

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

snip

If there's a significant number of people really thinking of running for the Republican nomination in 2024, then I'm curious why we're not hearing more about back-biting & internal sabotage of the re-election campaign.

These folks do understand that if he wins in November, then the 2024 nomination isn't worth winning, right? Or are they actually that dense?

Probably because the endorsement of a two-term President Trump (regardless of his political fortunes) would be very valuable. Assuming there even is a 2024 election in this scenario, I don't think it's automatic that Pence gets Trump's endorsement.