Republican Primary 2024 (Leger)- Pence 31, Don Jr. 17

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1294033318388826114

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I would think that Mike Pence's numbers will go down if he and Trump lose in November.

[Mr. Morden]

From that link, they have both Democratic and Republican #s:

Dems:
Cuomo 21%
Harris 19%
Buttigieg 16%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Yang 8%
Klobuchar 6%
Booker 6%
O’Rourke 6%
Abrams 6%
Gillibrand 3%

GOP:
Pence 31%
Trump Jr. 17%
Haley 11%
Romney 9%
Cruz 8%
Carlson 7%
Rubio 5%
Ryan 4%
Ivanka 3%
Pompeo 3%
McCarthy 2%

Poll was taken Aug. 4-7, so this is all from before Harris was announced as the running mate choice.

[brucejoel99]

Dems:
Cuomo 21%
Harris 19%
Buttigieg 16%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Yang 8%
Klobuchar 6%
Booker 6%
O’Rourke 6%
Abrams 6%
Gillibrand 3%

This is without 4 years of VP Harris & fails to include major potential candidates (Warren!), so it's literally less than useless.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems:
Cuomo 21%
Harris 19%
Buttigieg 16%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Yang 8%
Klobuchar 6%
Booker 6%
O’Rourke 6%
Abrams 6%
Gillibrand 3%

This is without 4 years of Vice President Harris, so it's literally less than useless.

Well yeah, if Biden wins, then (assuming he himself doesn't run for reelection) Harris will presumably be the 2024 Dem. nominee.  The 2024 Dem. primary matchup polling (to the extent it means anything at all, which is very little) is where things start if Biden/Harris loses this year.

[NewYorkExpress]

Why the in the seven Hells are they polling Kevin McCarthy and Paul Ryan?

McCarthy isn't running because he's almost certainly going to be Speaker assuming Republicans retake the House in 2022, while Ryan wants nothing to do with National Politics at the moment, and he'd be slaughtered in a Republican Primary nationally at this point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why the in the seven Hells are they polling Kevin McCarthy and Paul Ryan?

McCarthy isn't running because he's almost certainly going to be Speaker assuming Republicans retake the House in 2022, while Ryan wants nothing to do with National Politics at the moment, and he'd be slaughtered in a Republican Primary nationally at this point.

Newt Gingrich's career in electoral politics seemed over after he resigned and yet he ran for president 14 years later. Who knows, maybe Ryan gets the itch too after a few years as private citizen.

[NewYorkExpress]

Why the in the seven Hells are they polling Kevin McCarthy and Paul Ryan?

McCarthy isn't running because he's almost certainly going to be Speaker assuming Republicans retake the House in 2022, while Ryan wants nothing to do with National Politics at the moment, and he'd be slaughtered in a Republican Primary nationally at this point.

Newt Gingrich's career in electoral politics seemed over after he resigned and yet he ran for president 14 years later. Who knows, maybe Ryan gets the itch too after a few years as private citizen.

Gingrich at least was more in tune with Republican political thought at the time (other than whole lobbyist thing). Ryan really isn't.

[Senator-elect Spark]

From that link, they have both Democratic and Republican #s:

Dems:
Cuomo 21%
Harris 19%
Buttigieg 16%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Yang 8%
Klobuchar 6%
Booker 6%
O’Rourke 6%
Abrams 6%
Gillibrand 3%

GOP:
Pence 31%
Trump Jr. 17%
Haley 11%
Romney 9%
Cruz 8%
Carlson 7%
Rubio 5%
Ryan 4%
Ivanka 3%
Pompeo 3%
McCarthy 2%

Poll was taken Aug. 4-7, so this is all from before Harris was announced as the running mate choice.

The prospect of Cuomo running has me shivering.

[Left Wing]

Mitt Romney would have a better chance running in the Democratic Party.

[President Johnson]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

Based on what? Besides its media management aspect, his COVID-19 response was pretty awful.

[President Johnson]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

Based on what? Besides its media management aspect, his COVID-19 response was pretty awful.

It was so awful that his approval rating skyrocketed? New York, at least was few weeks ago, one of the few states that had one of the slowest grows in new cases. Regardless of that, his list of liberal accomplishments is pretty long: Was among the first pass same-sex marriage, enacted strong gun control laws, protected women's choice, raised the minimum wage, passed a meaningful college tuition bill backed by Bernie and a family leave program, among many others things. Considering he had eight years of a Republican state senate, that's not a bad track record.

I really don't get the disdain for him. I'm not saying everything he's done is just fine, but it's hard to overlook his accomplishments. As president, he'd be one of the most liberal (and most experienced) ones in history. That being said, I doubt he will ever be president due to lack of chances since Joe Biden's election is likely. After four or eight years, Kamala will take over and Cuomo just be too old. I actually hope he will be Chief of Staff or Attorney General in a Biden Administration coming January.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

Based on what? Besides its media management aspect, his COVID-19 response was pretty awful.

It was so awful that his approval rating skyrocketed?

Yes. This happened for lots of leaders around the world (our very own BoJo's approval only started to drop after Dominic Cummings had a personal scandal; the total neglect of care homes didn't matter until then). In the short term and hopefully not the long term, it turns out that you can still be almost criminally incompetent and win credit in a crisis so long as you sound like you're in control and reassure people in a state of mass panic and the media markets catering to them.

That said, in a competitive race a while later like a Democratic national primary or a general election, Cuomo's record would probably come under more scrutiny and that's where it would begin to fall apart.

New York, at least was few weeks ago, one of the few states that had one of the slowest grows in new cases. Regardless of that, his list of liberal accomplishments is pretty long: Was among the first pass same-sex marriage, enacted strong gun control laws, protected women's choice, raised the minimum wage, passed a meaningful college tuition bill backed by Bernie and a family leave program, among many others things. Considering he had eight years of a Republican state senate, that's not a bad track record.

I really don't get the disdain for him. I'm not saying everything he's done is just fine, but it's hard to overlook his accomplishments. As president, he'd be one of the most liberal (and most experienced) ones in history.

Cuomo "reformed" Medicaid so that it was cut during the COVID-19 crisis, even as his state was among the worst hit, even as Chuck Schumer attacked him from the left and threatened to withhold aid if he enacted said reforms. That his state has slow growth after the virus has already ravaged much of it is small comfort: the principal challenge of coronavirus wasn't to completely eradicate it, but to flatten the curve such that medical capacities were not overwhelmed (meaning that people whose survival was dependent on care received it). He seems to have failed on that front.

As for the rest of his record, it's certainly not the worst, but the Republican state senate was somewhat less obstructionist than most because it depended on an IDC willing to pass some bills. Cuomo could have organised the formidable party machine to fight the IDC much earlier, but that was left to unconnected organisations which mobilised as late as 2018. He would not be one of the most liberal presidents in history except, perhaps, on social issues and even there he is probably less so than most of the 2020 primary field.

[brucejoel99]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

Based on what? Besides its media management aspect, his COVID-19 response was pretty awful.

It was so awful that his approval rating skyrocketed? New York, at least was few weeks ago, one of the few states that had one of the slowest grows in new cases. Regardless of that, his list of liberal accomplishments is pretty long: Was among the first pass same-sex marriage, enacted strong gun control laws, protected women's choice, raised the minimum wage, passed a meaningful college tuition bill backed by Bernie and a family leave program, among many others things. Considering he had eight years of a Republican state senate, that's not a bad track record.

I really don't get the disdain for him. I'm not saying everything he's done is just fine, but it's hard to overlook his accomplishments. As president, he'd be one of the most liberal (and most experienced) ones in history. That being said, I doubt he will ever be president due to lack of chances since Joe Biden's election is likely. After four or eight years, Kamala will take over and Cuomo just be too old. I actually hope he will be Chief of Staff or Attorney General in a Biden Administration coming January.

His approval rating skyrocketed because it was a crisis, & when people are scared, they naturally turn to confident, decisive leaders. It's just human nature, & there's nothing wrong about that, especially when Cuomo particularly looked good in contrast to the black hole in the White House.

But here's the thing: he only looked good. From an objective standpoint, his response itself just wasn't good. It was clear from early January that this was likely gonna be a problem. He failed to prepare. When it did hit & NY lacked testing, he failed to close the state. Once he was finally forced to close the state, he did almost nothing to get testing up to the level needed to reopen the state, except to blame others (mostly as part of his continuously ongoing dick-measuring contest with de Blasio). He failed to help the marginalized communities that everybody knew needed support to avoid the worst of it. He failed to get PPE. And then he had the gall to go forward with Medicaid cuts during the pandemic. It doesn't get more f**ked up than that.

The only reason people swooned over him this year (to such an extent that there were literally people calling for him to replace Biden on the ticket) was because he was willing to jump in front of literally every camera he could find. Newsom - for example - didn't, & he even handled the CA crisis way better & way faster than NY did theirs, but Cuomo got all of the praise & Newsom got nothing.

And outside of this year, praising him as this great liberal isn't really right, either. He still hasn't made weed legal & continues to drag his feet on doing so for personal gain. For a Democrat, he honestly has the worst public education policies I've ever seen. He's anti-union. His administration hasn't followed through with its rural broadband initiative that they promised to implement. He neglected the subway system & when he accidentally hired somebody who did start to improve it, he went on a massive ego trip & drove him out.

Plus, he doesn't do much to change the fact that NY is one of the most expensive states to live in, an issue that ties into classic NY political corruption: every economic initiative of his has fizzled, but not without lining somebody's pockets. I may agree with a decent amount of his politics, but my own dislike of him has a lot to do with the corruption scandals that have perpetually surrounded him, & him disbanding the board looking into corruption once they were gonna start looking at the Governor's office doesn't exactly look good for him.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

I hope Romney runs, and I think he'd have a real shot at winning the nomination

There's a minority of Republican voters who are sane now, but after Trump loses - a majority will act it.

Romney is familiar and unambiguously the anti-Trump figure the Republicans will crave

That's not to say there won't be a 'Trump successor', or several, but I think they'll lose

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I hope Romney runs, and I think he'd have a real shot at winning the nomination

There's a minority of Republican voters who are sane now, but after Trump loses - a majority will act it.

Romney is familiar and unambiguously the anti-Trump figure the Republicans will crave

That's not to say there won't be a 'Trump successor', or several, but I think they'll lose

"Romney Republican" is now an insult in GOP primaries. He'll be lucky to win the UTSEN nomination in 2024.

[Alben Barkley]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

Based on what? Besides its media management aspect, his COVID-19 response was pretty awful.

It was so awful that his approval rating skyrocketed? New York, at least was few weeks ago, one of the few states that had one of the slowest grows in new cases. Regardless of that, his list of liberal accomplishments is pretty long: Was among the first pass same-sex marriage, enacted strong gun control laws, protected women's choice, raised the minimum wage, passed a meaningful college tuition bill backed by Bernie and a family leave program, among many others things. Considering he had eight years of a Republican state senate, that's not a bad track record.

I really don't get the disdain for him. I'm not saying everything he's done is just fine, but it's hard to overlook his accomplishments. As president, he'd be one of the most liberal (and most experienced) ones in history. That being said, I doubt he will ever be president due to lack of chances since Joe Biden's election is likely. After four or eight years, Kamala will take over and Cuomo just be too old. I actually hope he will be Chief of Staff or Attorney General in a Biden Administration coming January.

His approval rating skyrocketed because it was a crisis, & when people are scared, they naturally turn to confident, decisive leaders. It's just human nature, & there's nothing wrong about that, especially when Cuomo particularly looked good in contrast to the black hole in the White House.

But here's the thing: he only looked good. From an objective standpoint, his response itself just wasn't good. It was clear from early January that this was likely gonna be a problem. He failed to prepare. When it did hit & NY lacked testing, he failed to close the state. Once he was finally forced to close the state, he did almost nothing to get testing up to the level needed to reopen the state, except to blame others (mostly as part of his continuously ongoing dick-measuring contest with de Blasio). He failed to help the marginalized communities that everybody knew needed support to avoid the worst of it. He failed to get PPE. And then he had the gall to go forward with Medicaid cuts during the pandemic. It doesn't get more f**ked up than that.

The only reason people swooned over him this year (to such an extent that there were literally people calling for him to replace Biden on the ticket) was because he was willing to jump in front of literally every camera he could find. Newsom - for example - didn't, & he even handled the CA crisis way better & way faster than NY did theirs, but Cuomo got all of the praise & Newsom got nothing.

And outside of this year, praising him as this great liberal isn't really right, either. He still hasn't made weed legal & continues to drag his feet on doing so for personal gain. For a Democrat, he honestly has the worst public education policies I've ever seen. He's anti-union. His administration hasn't followed through with its rural broadband initiative that they promised to implement. He neglected the subway system & when he accidentally hired somebody who did start to improve it, he went on a massive ego trip & drove him out.

Plus, he doesn't do much to change the fact that NY is one of the most expensive states to live in, an issue that ties into classic NY political corruption: every economic initiative of his has fizzled, but not without lining somebody's pockets. I may agree with a decent amount of his politics, but my own dislike of him has a lot to do with the corruption scandals that have perpetually surrounded him, & him disbanding the board looking into corruption once they were gonna start looking at the Governor's office doesn't exactly look good for him.

I don’t know enough about all this to comment on everything, don’t know exactly what’s true or not or what the context is for all of it, but I will say that the end result of whatever Cuomo did is that NY went from being the worst place in the country for COVID (have people already forgotten just how bad the crisis was there?) to one of the safest. He seems to have gotten it under control pretty well. And as far as being so bad on public education, how come New York has some of the best public schools in the country then? I’m more concerned about results than methods, and Cuomo at least seems to get results.

[brucejoel99]

If Joe Biden wins, the 2024 Democratic nomination is either his or Kamala Harris'. But great to see Andrew Cuomo is polling strong. He'd be an excellent president.

Based on what? Besides its media management aspect, his COVID-19 response was pretty awful.

It was so awful that his approval rating skyrocketed? New York, at least was few weeks ago, one of the few states that had one of the slowest grows in new cases. Regardless of that, his list of liberal accomplishments is pretty long: Was among the first pass same-sex marriage, enacted strong gun control laws, protected women's choice, raised the minimum wage, passed a meaningful college tuition bill backed by Bernie and a family leave program, among many others things. Considering he had eight years of a Republican state senate, that's not a bad track record.

I really don't get the disdain for him. I'm not saying everything he's done is just fine, but it's hard to overlook his accomplishments. As president, he'd be one of the most liberal (and most experienced) ones in history. That being said, I doubt he will ever be president due to lack of chances since Joe Biden's election is likely. After four or eight years, Kamala will take over and Cuomo just be too old. I actually hope he will be Chief of Staff or Attorney General in a Biden Administration coming January.

His approval rating skyrocketed because it was a crisis, & when people are scared, they naturally turn to confident, decisive leaders. It's just human nature, & there's nothing wrong about that, especially when Cuomo particularly looked good in contrast to the black hole in the White House.

But here's the thing: he only looked good. From an objective standpoint, his response itself just wasn't good. It was clear from early January that this was likely gonna be a problem. He failed to prepare. When it did hit & NY lacked testing, he failed to close the state. Once he was finally forced to close the state, he did almost nothing to get testing up to the level needed to reopen the state, except to blame others (mostly as part of his continuously ongoing dick-measuring contest with de Blasio). He failed to help the marginalized communities that everybody knew needed support to avoid the worst of it. He failed to get PPE. And then he had the gall to go forward with Medicaid cuts during the pandemic. It doesn't get more f**ked up than that.

The only reason people swooned over him this year (to such an extent that there were literally people calling for him to replace Biden on the ticket) was because he was willing to jump in front of literally every camera he could find. Newsom - for example - didn't, & he even handled the CA crisis way better & way faster than NY did theirs, but Cuomo got all of the praise & Newsom got nothing.

And outside of this year, praising him as this great liberal isn't really right, either. He still hasn't made weed legal & continues to drag his feet on doing so for personal gain. For a Democrat, he honestly has the worst public education policies I've ever seen. He's anti-union. His administration hasn't followed through with its rural broadband initiative that they promised to implement. He neglected the subway system & when he accidentally hired somebody who did start to improve it, he went on a massive ego trip & drove him out.

Plus, he doesn't do much to change the fact that NY is one of the most expensive states to live in, an issue that ties into classic NY political corruption: every economic initiative of his has fizzled, but not without lining somebody's pockets. I may agree with a decent amount of his politics, but my own dislike of him has a lot to do with the corruption scandals that have perpetually surrounded him, & him disbanding the board looking into corruption once they were gonna start looking at the Governor's office doesn't exactly look good for him.

I don’t know enough about all this to comment on everything, don’t know exactly what’s true or not or what the context is for all of it, but I will say that the end result of whatever Cuomo did is that NY went from being the worst place in the country for COVID (have people already forgotten just how bad the crisis was there?) to one of the safest. He seems to have gotten it under control pretty well. And as far as being so bad on public education, how come New York has some of the best public schools in the country then? I’m more concerned about results than methods, and Cuomo at least seems to get results.

A. NY is only one of the safest states right now because Cuomo - unlike many GOP governors - wasn't stupid enough to force his state to re-open once its numbers showed any minuscule sign of the curve being flattened. Which is good, but it doesn't change the fact that he still took way too long to shut down in the first place.

B. I was referring to his willingness to cut the public education budget.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

To add to what everybody has said already, Cuomo is currently being bribed by billionaire donors to fight a modest top tax increase to help with COVID recovery. He also abjectly failed in his approach to the MTA, which he as always blames De Blasio for.

Given all these facts, I am sure he would have an inside track on the nomination.

[Person Man]

Pence is done if he loses this year. Both of these bozos are sunk. I think Pence gets it if he wins this year.

My money is on Cruz for 2024 if there's no Trump in 2021. Though not a lot. He's simply "next in line" and though he's the guy in the senate who microwaves the fist, he's ideologically a good fit between the soft-right  Bush-Cheney establishment and the hard-right Trump-Pence populists. He especially gets it if Biden is polling around 50% (or in the 50s) most of the time. Someone like Cruz makes the perfect sacrificial lamb.

[Suburbia]

Pence is done if he loses this year. Both of these bozos are sunk. I think Pence gets it if he wins this year.

My money is on Cruz for 2024 if there's no Trump in 2021. Though not a lot. He's simply "next in line" and though he's the guy in the senate who microwaves the fist, he's ideologically a good fit between the soft-right  Bush-Cheney establishment and the hard-right Trump-Pence populists. He especially gets it if Biden is polling around 50% (or in the 50s) most of the time. Someone like Cruz makes the perfect sacrificial lamb.

And Cruz's Senate seat probably goes to a Democrat in 2024

[Coldstream]

Assuming Biden wins, Pence will probably lead the polling till Spring 2023 when the race actually starts, then fall away and drop out after finishing 5th in Iowa.

[Crumpets]

Welp, might as well get this board started with a poll from August.

https://www.newsweek.com/mike-pence-leads-donald-trump-jr-14-points-2024-republican-primary-poll-1525110

Poll by Leger
Conducted August 4-7
n=1,202 (incl. 1,041 RV)

Pence 31%
Don Jr. 17%
Haley 11%
Romney 9%
Cruz 8%
Carlson 7%
Rubio 5%
Ryan 4%
Ivanka 3%
Pompeo 3%
McCarthy 2%

As always, discuss with maps.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Romney is gonna be the same age as Joe Biden in 2024.  He isn't running.

Paul Ryan is done with politics.  It's been several years since I heard his name mentioned in any context other than discussion of his 2012 debate with Biden.