The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread
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  The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #175 on: August 20, 2020, 12:17:59 AM »

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

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snip

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

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snip

If there's a significant number of people really thinking of running for the Republican nomination in 2024, then I'm curious why we're not hearing more about back-biting & internal sabotage of the re-election campaign.

These folks do understand that if he wins in November, then the 2024 nomination isn't worth winning, right? Or are they actually that dense?

Probably because the endorsement of a two-term President Trump (regardless of his political fortunes) would be very valuable. Assuming there even is a 2024 election in this scenario, I don't think it's automatic that Pence gets Trump's endorsement.

But even if you get that endorsement & said endorsement gets you the nomination, the GOP just isn't winning a 3rd consecutive term after Trump in 2024, so what good is the nomination in that instance if it can't get you the Presidency?
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #176 on: August 20, 2020, 05:26:30 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #177 on: August 20, 2020, 05:28:08 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #178 on: August 20, 2020, 05:29:48 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

I would have thought the campaign currently increasing the jeopardy she is in suggests Ernst 2024 wouldn't go very well.
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #179 on: August 20, 2020, 06:05:34 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

I would have thought the campaign currently increasing the jeopardy she is in suggests Ernst 2024 wouldn't go very well.
I doubt, like 90% of candidates that mull runs, could actually win the nomination but being a senator from the first in the nation definitely won’t hurt her chances but if she has a close margin there or loses then it would be automatic death for her campaign
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #180 on: August 20, 2020, 06:26:40 PM »

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

I would have thought the campaign currently increasing the jeopardy she is in suggests Ernst 2024 wouldn't go very well.
I doubt, like 90% of candidates that mull runs, could actually win the nomination but being a senator from the first in the nation definitely won’t hurt her chances but if she has a close margin there or loses then it would be automatic death for her campaign

Eh, Idk, being from IA didn't exactly help Tom Harkin's chances back in '92 or anything.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #181 on: August 21, 2020, 10:44:41 PM »

GOP is going to double down on Trumpism. QAnon is the future of the Republican Party.

The idea that someone like Nikki Haley or Larry Hogan could win a primary is insane.

Tom Cotton is the most "moderate" candidate that could win.

Leading contenders will be people like Trump Junior or Tucker Carlson.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #182 on: August 22, 2020, 07:56:35 PM »

Tucker Carlson says he has no interest in running for president:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/tucker-carlson-pours-cold-water-on-talk-of-2024-bid/ar-BB18ecq9?li=BBnb7Kz

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Asked whether he wanted to run for president in 2024, Carlson said: "I've never been involved in anything like that, I've never wanted to be involved in anything like that. I'll tell you this: I'm completely committed to saying what I think is true, and politics is a hard place to do that.

"I love what I'm doing. I'm grateful to work at Fox, I'm not just saying that... so I've got a contract that extends a while and I plan to be here.

"Imagine a country where I'm considered a serious candidate for something, it's just hard to imagine anything like that."

When the host Aidan McLaughlin said he wasn't hearing a hard "no" to the idea of a 2024 presidential run, Carlson replied: "No, I'm not running for anything, come on."
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #183 on: August 24, 2020, 07:15:23 AM »


Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

Bold of you to assume that IA senate is a toss up Wink

Tucker Carlson says he has no interest in running for president:


Even if he wanted to, the smartest thing to do in terms of optics would be to dismiss it out of hand- just like DeSantis did (who obviously has more relevant priorities).  Cruz suggesting he'll run in 2024 was a politically poor move- it makes him look opportunist (even moreso than before).

Tucker has indicated multiple times that he loves what he does and doesn't want to leave his day job, not to mention the money.  He'd have to be crazy like a "FOX" to leave his gig.  

And let's kill this stupid conspiracy theory that Don Junior is a viable candidate.  Whatever unique political appeal his dad had isn't hereditary (and was contingent at being at the right place at the right time) , and he doesn't have a political career or a large following.  He has as much of a chance as Dave Reuben or Ann Coulter.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #184 on: August 24, 2020, 07:43:41 AM »

GOP is going to double down on Trumpism. QAnon is the future of the Republican Party.

The idea that someone like Nikki Haley or Larry Hogan could win a primary is insane.

Tom Cotton is the most "moderate" candidate that could win.

Leading contenders will be people like Trump Junior or Tucker Carlson.

I wouldn’t say Cotton is anymore moderate than those two. Unlike many Trumpists, who care above all about owning the libs, Cotton seems to have a sincere, deep-held and much more intellectual belief in authoritarianism.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #185 on: August 24, 2020, 12:24:21 PM »

GOP is going to double down on Trumpism. QAnon is the future of the Republican Party.

The idea that someone like Nikki Haley or Larry Hogan could win a primary is insane.

Tom Cotton is the most "moderate" candidate that could win.

Leading contenders will be people like Trump Junior or Tucker Carlson.

I wouldn’t say Cotton is anymore moderate than those two. Unlike many Trumpists, who care above all about owning the libs, Cotton seems to have a sincere, deep-held and much more intellectual belief in authoritarianism.

That's why moderate was in quotes 😛
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #186 on: August 24, 2020, 12:54:20 PM »


Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

Bold of you to assume that IA senate is a toss up Wink

Facts aren't assumptions Wink Wink
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President Johnson
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« Reply #187 on: August 24, 2020, 02:32:49 PM »

In his first joint interview with Kamala Harris, Joe Biden said he definitely does not rule out running for reelection. Of course it would be stupid to committ to one term already, but there are more instances like when he said "in my first term alone" in earlier speeches, that he may evaluate things in mid 2023 and if he feels he's still fit enough, there is more business to do and polls suggest he'd be Democrat's best bet, he could absolutely run again. But it's crazy to think about the fact he'll be 85 in his final full year as president.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #188 on: August 27, 2020, 01:17:18 AM »

If Trump wins, there will be a 2024 election in name only - Mike Pence, Trump Junior, or maybe Trump himself, would "run".
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #189 on: August 27, 2020, 09:35:23 AM »

Cotton pressed on 2024, and gives a non-answer.  He also won’t commit to serving an entire 6 year term in the Senate after he’s reelected this year:

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/08/sen-tom-cotton-offers-preview-of-primetime-gop-speech/

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Brock: Your speech is being touted as a preview to the 2024 Presidential election. It’s a prime time spot. Will you run for President in 2024 or do you support the President’s notion that he should be given 12 more years?

Sen. Cotton: What did he say – 12 more years? He really wants to cause the media to blow a gasket. My speech previews the case that the President and I and others will make for President Trump against Joe Biden over the next two months. It also previews some of the themes in which I’m running on re-election as well, to help keep America safe and keep us out of war and defend our interests and defend our prosperity. But it is not a preview of anything further.

Brock: Seriously though, will you serve out six years as a U.S. Senator, assuming you’re re-elected in November?

Sen. Cotton: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and presume  that I’ll be re-elected. I still have to earn six more years in the U.S. Senate and the people of Arkansas.

Brock: Your odds are good. I think it’s a legitimate question to ask. It’s been asked of other politicians when they’ve had these national opportunities.

Sen. Cotton: Well, again, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, Roby. Let’s talk on November 4th.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #190 on: August 30, 2020, 10:38:29 PM »

A NYT story from last week about Pence's moves:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/politics/mike-pence-trump-vp.html

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His aides, encouraged by Republican National Committee officials, had hoped to send Mr. Pence for a grand tour of all 50 state delegations at the 2020 convention, the kind of ritual outreach that can forge friendships for a future campaign. But when the in-person convention was scrapped, that broader plan went with it.

More recently, Mr. Pence has held a series of luncheons with Republican political consultants, including some who do not work for the Trump campaign, gathering them either at the Naval Observatory or the Trump Hotel in downtown Washington for wide-ranging conversations about the political landscape. People invited to participate have interpreted the sessions as an effort by Mr. Pence to expand his brain trust ahead of 2024; Pence aides claimed they’ve been a chance to get feedback for the Trump re-election campaign during a period when the president has been shaking up his staff.
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GAProgressive
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« Reply #191 on: August 31, 2020, 12:23:02 PM »

Cotton is getting on the campaign trail in Georgia this week.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #192 on: September 05, 2020, 09:19:10 PM »

Here’s a story from a couple of weeks ago about Don Jr.:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/magazine/donald-trump-jr.html

The bottom line conclusion from the story is that Don Jr. is very much into politics, but those close to him are skeptical that he’d actually run for office within the next four years, and that he might instead become a talk radio host, conservative pundit, or even seek to become chairman of the RNC:

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Although he would obviously prefer that his father win in November, people close to him say that, in some ways, having Trump out of the White House would be advantageous for Trump Jr. They use words like “unshackled” and “free” and speculate excitedly about his running for office in Montana or Florida — or, a few dare to dream, even the presidency — in 2024.

Those who are familiar with Trump Jr.’s thinking, though, say that’s not going to happen — at least not in the next four years. “Don can do everything he wants to do in politics,” says the person close to him, “without running for office.” The wolf pack talks about how Trump Jr. would be a natural podcaster or talk-radio host; Fox News — or perhaps a new conservative TV channel — could give him his own show. He has expressed interest in playing a prominent role in a revivified National Rifle Association and is open to the idea of serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This month, he will release his second book, “Liberal Privilege,” a rehash of Biden’s various supposed sins that he wrote during the pandemic lockdown.

Oh, and he’s reportedly pessimistic about November, and worried about criminal prosecutions of the family if Trump loses:

Quote
But Trump Jr. is apparently worried. “Don’s the only person who thinks they’re going to lose,” says a prominent conservative activist who is in regular contact with him and other key members of Trump’s political operation. “He’s like, ‘We’re losing, dude, and we’re going to get really hurt when we lose.’” An electoral defeat in November, Trump Jr. fears, could result in federal prosecutions of Trump, his family and his political allies. He has told the conservative activist that he expects that a Biden administration will not participate in a “peaceful transition” and instead will “shoot the prisoners.” (“This is 100 percent false,” Surabian says. “Don does not have these concerns.”)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #193 on: September 05, 2020, 10:54:23 PM »

Sasse is asked if he’s going to run for president in 2024, and dodges the question:

https://omaha.com/news/local/sen-ben-sasse-in-comfortable-position-ahead-of-debate-with-chris-janicek-tonight/article_29e6fa6a-1c61-5dcb-9ed1-536e0f17c1f5.html

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He smiled and changed the subject when asked whether he plans a presidential run in 2024.
He said that Americans still have a decision to make in 2020 and that he’s not yet sure what the conservative movement will look like in 2024.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #194 on: September 06, 2020, 05:48:28 AM »

Here’s a story from a couple of weeks ago about Don Jr.:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/magazine/donald-trump-jr.html

The bottom line conclusion from the story is that Don Jr. is very much into politics, but those close to him are skeptical that he’d actually run for office within the next four years, and that he might instead become a talk radio host, conservative pundit, or even seek to become chairman of the RNC:

Quote
Although he would obviously prefer that his father win in November, people close to him say that, in some ways, having Trump out of the White House would be advantageous for Trump Jr. They use words like “unshackled” and “free” and speculate excitedly about his running for office in Montana or Florida — or, a few dare to dream, even the presidency — in 2024.

Those who are familiar with Trump Jr.’s thinking, though, say that’s not going to happen — at least not in the next four years. “Don can do everything he wants to do in politics,” says the person close to him, “without running for office.” The wolf pack talks about how Trump Jr. would be a natural podcaster or talk-radio host; Fox News — or perhaps a new conservative TV channel — could give him his own show. He has expressed interest in playing a prominent role in a revivified National Rifle Association and is open to the idea of serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This month, he will release his second book, “Liberal Privilege,” a rehash of Biden’s various supposed sins that he wrote during the pandemic lockdown.

Oh, and he’s reportedly pessimistic about November, and worried about criminal prosecutions of the family if Trump loses:

Quote
But Trump Jr. is apparently worried. “Don’s the only person who thinks they’re going to lose,” says a prominent conservative activist who is in regular contact with him and other key members of Trump’s political operation. “He’s like, ‘We’re losing, dude, and we’re going to get really hurt when we lose.’” An electoral defeat in November, Trump Jr. fears, could result in federal prosecutions of Trump, his family and his political allies. He has told the conservative activist that he expects that a Biden administration will not participate in a “peaceful transition” and instead will “shoot the prisoners.” (“This is 100 percent false,” Surabian says. “Don does not have these concerns.”)


Shoot the prisoners? As much as I'd like to see the Trump family executed, I can assure everyone a Biden Presidency would not do such a thing.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #195 on: September 06, 2020, 11:26:28 AM »

Here’s a story from a couple of weeks ago about Don Jr.:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/magazine/donald-trump-jr.html

The bottom line conclusion from the story is that Don Jr. is very much into politics, but those close to him are skeptical that he’d actually run for office within the next four years, and that he might instead become a talk radio host, conservative pundit, or even seek to become chairman of the RNC:

Quote
Although he would obviously prefer that his father win in November, people close to him say that, in some ways, having Trump out of the White House would be advantageous for Trump Jr. They use words like “unshackled” and “free” and speculate excitedly about his running for office in Montana or Florida — or, a few dare to dream, even the presidency — in 2024.

Those who are familiar with Trump Jr.’s thinking, though, say that’s not going to happen — at least not in the next four years. “Don can do everything he wants to do in politics,” says the person close to him, “without running for office.” The wolf pack talks about how Trump Jr. would be a natural podcaster or talk-radio host; Fox News — or perhaps a new conservative TV channel — could give him his own show. He has expressed interest in playing a prominent role in a revivified National Rifle Association and is open to the idea of serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This month, he will release his second book, “Liberal Privilege,” a rehash of Biden’s various supposed sins that he wrote during the pandemic lockdown.

Oh, and he’s reportedly pessimistic about November, and worried about criminal prosecutions of the family if Trump loses:

Quote
But Trump Jr. is apparently worried. “Don’s the only person who thinks they’re going to lose,” says a prominent conservative activist who is in regular contact with him and other key members of Trump’s political operation. “He’s like, ‘We’re losing, dude, and we’re going to get really hurt when we lose.’” An electoral defeat in November, Trump Jr. fears, could result in federal prosecutions of Trump, his family and his political allies. He has told the conservative activist that he expects that a Biden administration will not participate in a “peaceful transition” and instead will “shoot the prisoners.” (“This is 100 percent false,” Surabian says. “Don does not have these concerns.”)


Shoot the prisoners? As much as I'd like to see the Trump family executed, I can assure everyone a Biden Presidency would not do such a thing.


Pretty sure that's a colorful metaphor for throwing them in jail, not a literal execution, lol.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #196 on: September 06, 2020, 11:32:52 PM »

Kristi Noem is a keynote speaker at a Lincoln day dinner in Iowa and a fundraiser in Ohio

Here's the info on the former:

https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/gov-noem-to-headline-gop-dinner-in-iowa/article_47c472ce-d628-5662-8d36-e7caf1bbe7f3.html

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South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be the keynote speaker on Sept. 4 at the Pottawattamie County (Iowa) Republican Party's annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner.


So this did indeed happen a couple of days ago:



Also of note: Various sources (like this blog post) have commented on Noem appearing at various events (like this Iowa one) that were also attended by Corey Lewandowski.  I guess there's speculation that Lewandowski might end up advising Noem if she does make a national run.
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« Reply #197 on: September 07, 2020, 12:27:34 PM »

Kristi Noem has a lot of goodwill from Trumpers since the Mt Rushmore speech

Where Tulsa was a Cain-killing disaster, Rushmore made for some good photographs
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #198 on: September 10, 2020, 09:33:56 AM »

Trump released a list of names of potential Supreme Court appointments for a (currently hypothetical) 2nd term, and it includes Cotton, Cruz, and Hawley.  Cotton released a statement suggesting that he would accept, Cruz sounds somewhat noncommittal, but Hawley outright says “I have no interest in the high court”:



Cotton sounds like he’d take it (“I will always heed the call of service to our nation”):

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1418

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“I’m honored that President Trump asked me to consider serving on the Supreme Court and I’m grateful for his confidence. I will always heed the call of service to our nation. The Supreme Court could use some more justices who understand the difference between applying the law and making the law…

Cruz says he’s happy with the Senate, but doesn’t rule out accepting a judicial nomination:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/09/ted-cruz-supreme-court-donald-trump/

Quote
"It's humbling and an immense honor to be considered for the Supreme Court," Cruz said. "In the Senate, I have been blessed to lead the fight to preserve our constitutional liberties —every day, to defend the rights of 29 million Texans — and I look forward to continuing to do so for many years to come.”
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #199 on: September 10, 2020, 09:49:10 AM »

That sounds like they may take the SCOTUS nomination in case of Trump's reelection. Not just because he's unlikely to get another opening at the court before the 2020 election, but also because declining the offer for a 2024 run 4 prez is likely not worth it. Hawley and Cruz are smart enough to figure out how unlikely a GOPer is to be will be elected prez after 2 terms of Trump, assuming they even make it to the GOP nomination. Taking a lifetime SCOTUS nomination may just be the better option. Especially for Cruz, who would be extremely vulnerable in his senate seat for 2024. Especially with reelected Trump.

If Trump is defeated, SCOTUS nomination is off the table of course. In this scenario, they will probably run for the WH (again).
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