The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Mark Cuban has not only claimed uncertainty as to whether he'll run in 2020, but also 2024:

https://www.wthr.com/article/iu-grad-mark-cuban-wont-rule-out-2024-presidential-run

[Mr. Morden]

Story here on Pompeo’s political trips, which may be a prelude to a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.startribune.com/pompeo-adds-political-stops-to-diplomatic-trips/570710512/

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a secretive trip in January to a Florida retirement enclave populated by prominent GOP donors at the tail end of a diplomatic trip to Latin America.

He held the same kind of quiet meeting in December with Republican donors at a hotel dinner on a State Department trip to London.

And last October, he huddled with Charles Koch, the GOP billionaire and a longtime supporter of his, while on an official visit to Kansas. That trip was made aboard a government aircraft.

In each of those instances, Pompeo did not put the visits on his public schedule. He and his aides avoided telling the reporters with them about the meetings, though some reported them afterward. And they took place as Pompeo was considering a run for the Senate from Kansas and as he nurtures plans for a presidential bid in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley possibly using "get tough on China" petition to build a list for 2024:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nikki-haley-stokes-anger-at-china-to-build-2024-election-support/ar-BB13I7iW

Haley is asking people to sign a petition urging Congress to get tough with “communist China” amid rising criticism of Beijing’s questionable handling of the coronavirus in the weeks after the disease emerged in Wuhan. The issue aligns with a hawkish foreign policy Haley promoted at the United Nations, and since leaving President Trump’s cabinet, that has emphasized confronting China’s authoritarian regime.

Republican voters are increasingly anxious about China’s intentions and global influence. Haley’s petition is unlikely to be the factor that pushes Congress to crack down on Beijing. But as the pandemic persists and its devastating impact on public health and the economy unfolds, the exercise allows Haley to elevate her profile on a critical national security issue and steadily build a list of supporters the former South Carolina governor could tap to fuel a presidential campaign.

“What are you going to do with a petition? The reality is, she’s building a list,” said Ed Rollins, a veteran Republican strategist who runs a pro-Trump super PAC.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1269792011361628162

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton will in fact put up (digital) attack ads against Biden in Michigan.....and Iowa:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-cotton-rallies-conservatives-and-raises-national-profile-as-op-ed-on-military-intervention-causes-uproar/2020/06/08/ca153a0a-a9a0-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html

The digital ads, which will run in Michigan and Iowa, are five figures, according to the adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a campaign that has yet to begin. But the relatively small ad campaign is meant not only to boost Trump’s reelection chances in key battlegrounds and bring attention to the China issue, but also for Cotton’s political team to test messages against Biden and see what attack lines resonate with voters.

Cotton is also focusing attention in retaining the Senate majority, hosting more than half-dozen virtual fundraisers for Senate Republicans in recent weeks and doing digital fundraising for nearly all GOP senators locked in competitive reelection races.

“They will often rely on Tom to deliver kind of a harsher, negative message and Tom is willing to do that,” the adviser said.

Also of note from that story:

At the Republican National Convention four years ago, Cotton made sure to appear before delegations from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — three critical early-nomination states — as well as meet with GOP leaders from Florida and Ohio.

At a lunch with Iowa Republicans, Cotton boasted that he loves the state so much “that I married a girl born in Iowa.” With delegates from New Hampshire, Cotton noted his fandom of the New England Patriots. And at both appearances, he mocked Democrats and sidestepped mentions of Trump, who at the time had been struggling to coalesce broad support from the party.

And:

Cotton would consider serving in the Cabinet in a second Trump administration, according to a person close to the senator who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence headed to Iowa yet again tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/CaroRCummings/status/1272536915129126919

[Mr. Morden]

Very long Florida Men feature in POLITICO featuring Scott, DeSantis, Rubio and Gaetz, mostly focusing on the first 2. Both are extremely interested, Rubio is meh and Gaetz is more interested in Rubio's Senate seat for now. IMO makes a convincing case Scott is a better pol than DeSantis.

I finally got around to reading this.  Some excerpts:

POLITICO interviewed 20 veterans who have worked formally or informally for both DeSantis or Scott—and in some cases, both. Speaking anonymously to share their candid assessments of the state’s political topography, these insiders reveal that almost every story involving Florida’s statewide politicians is best understood by viewing it through the lens of the 2024 race.

“You know how I know Rick Scott wants to run for president?” said a longtime Republican operative who has worked for both men. “He said that. I have to be careful about specifics, but he has said to me, and for sure has alluded to donors, what is to come.”
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DeSantis loyalists acknowledge that even in 2018, in the midst of a messy primary fight, they were aware of their candidate’s higher aspirations—and the long-term work required to mold a gaffe-prone congressman with a notable lack of people skills into the national candidate he already thought he was.
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“One of the lines I’ve heard him use multiple times with multiple high-net-worth donors is, ‘I’ll be sworn in as governor at 40 years old. That’s not the last thing I’m going to do,’” said a veteran GOP consultant who also worked on DeSantis’ campaign. “It’s very clear he is a person who has national aspirations, and for better or worse, has the confidence to do it.”
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Rubio has remained outside the fray, but his failure in 2016 makes him an automatic factor for a second run. Indeed, he has already been the most open of the three that he is considering running for president in a post-Trump era.

His team also quietly gathered last year in Washington to plot a potential path forward. “There was a frank conversation about donors and who they would be with if all three were in,” said one adviser who attended the meeting. Rubio’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

[Mr. Morden]

Various GOP politicos seem to think Tucker Carlson might run in 2024, but this article doesn't really summon any evidence that Carlson himself is interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334

“Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said Sam Nunberg, a former top political aide to Trump who knows Carlson. But Nunberg said he doesn’t believe Carlson will run because “he’s so disgusted with politicians.”

Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

Carlson and Fox News declined to comment.
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Carlson has never run for office and has been dismissive of doing so in the past. In 2012, Nunberg said Republican operative Roger Stone unsuccessfully pushed Carlson to run on the Libertarian ticket. Stone told POLITICO in an email that “t is not inconceivable that I may have raised it in jest or in passing as repartee, but have no memory of that.”

[Mr. Morden]

The Guardian has a story on Nikki Haley’s 2024 maneuvering, highlighting in particular her use of her non-profit group, Stand for America:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/nikki-haley-post-trump-republican-party

Stand for America is composed of a small team of about six people, including [executive director Tim] Chapman. The team has a weekly Zoom call with Haley and Chapman spends much of his time coalition-building and working with outside groups and policymakers.

Haley often weighs in on foreign policy or “Democrats’ embrace of socialism” as she did in a February op-ed for the Wall Street Journal’s editorial section. Warning about advancing socialism is a favorite topic for Haley and her organization. A recent mailer sent out to supporters asked them to participate in a “REFERENDUM ON SOCIALISM”. The mailer went on to tick off some liberal policy proposals like free college tuition or the Green New Deal proposed by the Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
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Haley has fundraised for almost a dozen Republican Senate candidates, many of them in tough re-election races, and has been a special guest at Republican Governors Association (RGA) events. Last November, Haley authored a book, With All Due Respect, billed as “a first-hand perspective on major national and international matters”. The book covers the end of her governorship as well as her time as ambassador.
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Haley has surrounded herself with operatives who could lead a presidential campaign. The most commonly mentioned Republican strategist is Jon Lerner, who served as a deputy to Haley at the UN. Chapman previously ran the advocacy arm of the Heritage Foundation giving him strong ties to influential experts and groups within the Republican party.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie reiterates that he might run for prez again in 2024.  At about the 15:55 mark in this video he's asked about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiy37CumQWA

“I would certainly look at the race in 2024, and I would not back off from that at all."

And then a bit later:

“Maybe 2024 is the time to go after that job again.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/larry-hogan-maryland-book-tour-2024-campaign.html

Hogan has a memoir coming out soon with a virtual tour of sorts.

He isn’t super direct about potential presidential ambition in his interview there, but in this story, he goes as far as saying “I’m not going to rule anything out.”:

"I'm more concerned about what happens with the country and what happens with my party. And, you know, I'm more concerned about making sure there's a future for the Republican Party rather than what my future is in the Republican Party. But, you know, I'm not going to rule anything out," Hogan said.

The governor was ready for the question about whether he will run in 2024, and he knows it will keep coming up.

When asked what it would take for him to see a path to enter the Republican primary, Hogan said, "Well, first of all, I enjoyed being in New Hampshire with you the last time, but look, it's way too early to talk about 2024 because we still have this election going on, but I think regardless of what happens in this November election, both parties are going to re-examine where we're heading and what are we going to do about the politics and where are we going to look to four years later."

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton headed to New Hampshire on July 31st:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cotton-visit-nh-2024-speculation.amp

Fox News confirmed on Thursday that Cotton will headline the Hillsborough County GOP’s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner on July 31. The event is a major fundraiser for Republicans in state’s most populous county. It was originally scheduled for May 1 but postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence is in South Carolina today:

https://www.wltx.com/article/news/local/vice-president-pence-to-meet-with-governor-discuss-reopening-schools-in-south-carolina-tuesday/101-f9062afc-f1b2-41b3-bf97-15003542a56f

[Mr. Morden]

I also posted this in the VP thread on the 2020 board, but also seems relevant here: At least one potential Biden VP shortlister claims no interest in a 2024 presidential run:

https://twitter.com/joshjame/status/1286006214674055168

[Mr. Morden]

This happened last week, but I guess I missed it at the time:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/sean-hannity-run-for-president-donald-trump-election-coronavirus-brian-kilmeade-a9621431.html

Fox News host Sean Hannity, the conservative media commentator often credited as one of president Donald Trump’s closest confidantes, hinted on live television he may one day launch his own bid for the White House.

The comments came as Hannity opened his show on Tuesday night while exchanging jokes with Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade, who quipped about taking over his popular nightly programme.

“A few year years, it’s all yours,” Hannity said in response. “Who knows, I might run for president. You never know!”

To be clear, Hannity appeared to be making the statement in good humour and did not reveal any specific intentions to run for elected office — still, the comments were sure to add fuel to previous reports that suggested Hannity was eyeing a future in politics after his media career ends.

A New York Magazine profile of the TV host said he has “expressed openness” to the idea of running for office after Mr Trump’s electoral upset victory in the 2016 presidential election. Hannity has also previously joked about running for office with his executive produce Lynda McLaughlin, claiming he was “being vetted more than Obama”.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie reiterates that he might run for prez again in 2024.  At about the 15:55 mark in this video he's asked about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiy37CumQWA

“I would certainly look at the race in 2024, and I would not back off from that at all."

And then a bit later:

“Maybe 2024 is the time to go after that job again.”

Looks like, uncommonly for a politician seriously plotting a presidential run in a couple of years, Christie is currently spending his time cashing in on being a lobbyist:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/chris-christie-cashes-in-on-coronavirus-lobbying-380640

The former New Jersey governor is making big money from businesses trying to tap the gusher of coronavirus relief funds coming from the federal government. Newly filed disclosures show Christie’s firm pulled in $240,000 in less than three months for lobbying the Trump administration on coronavirus aid on behalf of three New Jersey hospital systems and a Tennessee-based chain of addiction treatment centers.
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Christie is hardly the first former governor to land on K Street. But it’s unusual for a former presidential candidate who hasn't ruled out running again to become a lobbyist, especially without joining a major Washington firm. And he’s off to a fast start pulling in business: Christie registered to lobby for the first time only last month, in the middle of a lobbying boom fueled by the federal government’s multitrillion-dollar response to the pandemic.

[Mr. Morden]

During his NH trip, Cotton was asked about 2024 and he dodged.  Asked again if it was something he was even thinking about, he gave a non-answer:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cotton-help-republicans-trip-2024-speculation

“I know that that kind of speculation is common in politics but I’m here because I’m focused on the 2020 election,” Cotton emphasized. “I could avoid that speculation by not coming but New Hampshire could be the center of the political universe and that’s why I’m here. The four electoral votes in New Hampshire could make the difference the way the other states break on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins this election.”
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Cotton didn’t reveal any cards, telling Fox News: “I want to make America a safe prosperous, and great country…. I’m going to be traveling all around the country to make sure that Republicans win.”
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Asked again if a potential White House run in 2024 is something he’s mulling, Cotton answered “I’ll continue to try to focus on the ways we can make America a better place for all of our citizens in any way whatsoever.”

[Mr. Morden]

Speaking of Cotton, he’s also using his 501(c)4 group to run digital ads Democratic candidates for Congress on China policy.  The adds are running around the country, rather than in his home state of Arkansas:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-stealthy-play-to-make-swing-state-republicans-love-tom-cotton?ref=home

And then, in more 2024 news, Christie again said he might run in 2024:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/absolutely-chris-christie-considering-presidential-bid-in-2024

"I certainly wouldn't foreclose any possibility, right? So, might I consider running? Sure, absolutely. I'm 57 years old. I still am very involved in political life and public life in this country and have a lot of opinions about where the country should be headed and how it should be managed," Christie said on Friday.

"So I certainly wouldn't discount, you know, me running again in 2024," he added.

Also, Rick Scott might be vying to lead the NRSC for the 2022 midterms, perhaps to set himself up for a 2024 presidential run:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1289234240530296832

[Mr. Morden]

Kristi Noem is a keynote speaker at a Lincoln day dinner in Iowa and a fundraiser in Ohio

Here's the info on the former:

https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/gov-noem-to-headline-gop-dinner-in-iowa/article_47c472ce-d628-5662-8d36-e7caf1bbe7f3.html

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be the keynote speaker on Sept. 4 at the Pottawattamie County (Iowa) Republican Party's annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner.

[Mr. Morden]

While there's been more discussion of the GOP field so far in this thread, there does remain the possibility that either Trump wins or Biden wins but doesn't run for a second term.  In either of those cases, there'll presumably be at least a somewhat contested Dem. primary, even if in the latter case Biden's VP would probably be the heavy favorite if she runs.  So one possible Dem. 2024 candidate to check in on is Buttigieg, and it looks like he has a gig at Notre Dame, and a book coming out in October:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pete-buttigieg-takes-a-faculty-post-at-notre-dame/

The University of Notre Dame has announced that Pete Buttigieg, failed presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., will be taking a post at the university for the coming academic year.

Buttigieg will be a 2020-21 faculty fellow at Notre Dame’s Institute for Advanced Study (NDIAS), taking part in a cohort that is set to focus on the “nature of trust.” In October, the former mayor will release a book on just that subject, called Trust: America’s Best Chance, “interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir [to explore] the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust.”

[Mr. Morden]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177

Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo was asked about the new poll showing him leading the 2024 field, and gives a no comment on his 2024 intentions:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/cuomo-shocking-to-see-poll-showing-him-leading-2024-democratic-field/2568009/

"The poll was shocking to me, frankly," Cuomo said during a news conference Friday, saying all of his support "must be from the briefings and from what New Yorkers did on COVID.

"I applaud New Yorkers and I think it's reflective of the actions that New Yorkers took ... and possibly my rapier wit and stunning sense of humor," Cuomo said. "It was shocking to me."

He steadfastly refused to run for president this year, despite a brief "draft Cuomo" movement during the depths of the coronavirus pandemic. He did not say during Friday's call whether he'd actually consider a 2024 run.

[Mr. Morden]

One clue to watch for at the national conventions in a normal year is, are there any potential candidates who make a point of meeting with the delegations from early primary states.  That's presumably out the window this time around because the whole thing is remote, but I guess there remains a small chance that one or more potential candidates does a conference call with said delegates?  I guess we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

Some would-be candidates are traveling to early primary states despite the pandemic. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took a break from his busy overseas travel schedule for a recent appearance at the Iowa Family Leader summit, a regular stop for presidential hopefuls. Paul is expected to campaign this fall for congressional candidates in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Noem is slated to headline a September political dinner in Iowa and is expected to make a preelection appearance in New Hampshire to campaign for Trump.

In other cases, prospective White House contenders are using the 2020 election to develop alliances that could pay off in four years. Cruz has long been criticized for not getting along with his colleagues, but the Texas senator is aiming to raise millions of dollars for down-ballot House candidates by hosting a donor conference in Aspen, Colo., this week.

Earlier this year, Rick Scott invited a half-dozen Republicans up for election onto his private plane to attend a series of fundraisers across Florida.

Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has been endorsing candidates through the Empower America Project, an organization devoted to diversifying the party. Paul has been among the most aggressive, spending millions through his super PAC to boost Republican candidates.

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

Though the schedule was still being finalized early this week, Cruz and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley are not expected to have slots. It is unclear whether Rick Scott or Paul will.