NJ-2: Van Drew considering switching parties over impeachment

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1205953125141635074?s=20

It’s official

[Landslide Lyndon]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

He has about as much of a chance to win a Republican primary as Parker Griffith and Artur Davis.

Trump could endorse an inanimate object in a 2X Obama->Trump CD and it would win the Republican primary easily.

Senator Luther Strange and congresswoman Renee Elmers agree with you.

[Frenchrepublican]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

He has about as much of a chance to win a Republican primary as Parker Griffith and Artur Davis.

Trump could endorse an inanimate object in a 2X Obama->Trump CD and it would win the Republican primary easily.

Senator Luther Strange and congresswoman Renee Elmers agree with you.

Totally different. Elmers was endorsed by Trump before he became president and Strange was seen as corrupt by many conservative voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whomever, the Rs nominate will lose, NJ is a safe D state with Bernie as the nominee

[Skill and Chance]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

He has about as much of a chance to win a Republican primary as Parker Griffith and Artur Davis.

Trump could endorse an inanimate object in a 2X Obama->Trump CD and it would win the Republican primary easily.

Senator Luther Strange and congresswoman Renee Elmers agree with you.

Totally different. Elmers was endorsed by Trump before he became president and Strange was seen as corrupt by many conservative voters

Agreed.  Also there is a completely different dynamic in Southern states/districts with a very significant hard right block in the R primary that doesn't have any particular loyalty to Trump and long predates him.  The NJ-02 primary is going to be decided by people who only came to the party for Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel bad for his staff... they came to DC to work for Democrats and their boss is pretty much forcing them out of a job.

[Skill and Chance]

I feel bad for his staff... they came to DC to work for Democrats and their boss is pretty much forcing them out of a job.

Ehhh... they know this is a possibility in our system.  Ideally, party switches in between elections wouldn't be allowed, but we still formally elect individuals, not parties.  As long as he offered to keep anyone on who wants to stay, I don't see the problem.

[Cinemark]

I feel bad for his staff... they came to DC to work for Democrats and their boss is pretty much forcing them out of a job.

I saw how much effort local democrats put in trying to get Van Drew elected in 2018. This whole situation is disgusting. Van Drew should have had a damned back bone and faced his fate. Instead, he's spitting into the faces of hundreds of local volunteers and campaign staff.

[Morning in Atlas]

Van Drew received some pretty bad polling numbers for the Democratic primary:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1205956110760468481

Also, can we get a thread title change?

Well that and the Democrats running on his record getting shellacked last month.

[Frenchrepublican]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

He has about as much of a chance to win a Republican primary as Parker Griffith and Artur Davis.

Trump could endorse an inanimate object in a 2X Obama->Trump CD and it would win the Republican primary easily.

Senator Luther Strange and congresswoman Renee Elmers agree with you.

Totally different. Elmers was endorsed by Trump before he became president and Strange was seen as corrupt by many conservative voters

Agreed.  Also there is a completely different dynamic in Southern states/districts with a very significant hard right block in the R primary that doesn't have any particular loyalty to Trump and long predates him.  The NJ-02 primary is going to be decided by people who only came to the party for Trump.

Yeah, NJ republicans are more moderate than AL republicans (generally speaking)

[LabourJersey]

I feel bad for his staff... they came to DC to work for Democrats and their boss is pretty much forcing them out of a job.

I saw how much effort local democrats put in trying to get Van Drew elected in 2018. This whole situation is disgusting. Van Drew should have had a damned back bone and faced his fate. Instead, he's spitting into the faces of hundreds of local volunteers and campaign staff.

Agreed. He owes everything politically to the South Jersey democratic base, and he's pissed in their coffee and walked away. Completely betrayed the 53% of constituents who voted for him

[Skill and Chance]

It is interesting to me how few R->D party switches there have been in states/districts moving strongly D vs. D->R switches in states/districts moving strongly R.  Republicans got the Governor of WV to flip, but not a single NOVA legislative R switched parties this decade even when it was a one seat majority statewide.  That really surprises me.  I think the only place R->D has happened in recent times is in the Kansas legislature? 

[Gass3268]

It is interesting to me how few R->D party switches there have been in states/districts moving strongly D vs. D->R switches in states/districts moving strongly R.  Republicans got the Governor of WV to flip, but not a single NOVA legislative R switched parties this decade even when it was a one seat majority statewide.  That really surprises me.  I think the only place R->D has happened in recent times is in the Kansas legislature? 

Pretty sure there have been a couple in California.

[The Mikado]

Tbh this might actually make it easier to win NJ-02 in November.

[Suburbia]

He will be seen as a opportunist.

I am a moderate, I won't switch.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1205950839577305088?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

👆The guy above has a point

[Progressive Pessimist]

F*** this guy! He is the biggest coward in the country.

 I agree with this:

Bye! Hope you get Arlen Spectered.

 Andy Kim is in a way (non-atlas) redder district, and he is sticking to his principles. Same with numerous other Democratic representatives.

 If Van Drew does end up staying Democratic though, I hope he gets primaried. I don't even care if it compromises Democratic control of the district, usually I would, but this guy is the most useless Democrat in Congress. He is worse than Joe Manchin! Manchin never fled to join the GOP when he received criticism for a vote. To even consider doing this is a huge middle finger to many who voted for him in 2018. I hope he learns the hard way that party switching while in office is usually a bad move.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This guy votes 88% with the Democratic Party and endorsed Cory Booker. Have fun shaking that off in a GOP primary!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Those sure is some good optics:

He is elected as a Democrat in an anti-Trump wave and then switches parties to help Republicans defend the President after he abuses power, something which Democrats in even tougher districts aren't doing. There is even a much further right wing (former) Republican who is sticking to his principles more than he is. What an absolute travesty!

It's all a completely cynical political calculation by him, and a messy one at that which may not yield the result he wants.

This opportunistic wimp deserves whatever negative consequences he gets.

[SnowLabrador]

Seems like a dumb move to go from the House majority to the House minority, but Van Drew was useless anyway so I don't care.

[Nyvin]

Not a good move for him.   He'll probably be a one termer.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It is interesting to me how few R->D party switches there have been in states/districts moving strongly D vs. D->R switches in states/districts moving strongly R.  Republicans got the Governor of WV to flip, but not a single NOVA legislative R switched parties this decade even when it was a one seat majority statewide.  That really surprises me.  I think the only place R->D has happened in recent times is in the Kansas legislature? 

Pretty sure there have been a couple in California.

And in Kansas. Bollier is one of them.

[Cinemark]

Probably a missed opportunity this leaked on a Saturday night and not right after the impeachment vote.

[DrScholl]

I wouldn't assume that switching parties will save the seat for him. We aren't talking about a seat in Oklahoma or Kentucky here. He'll lose a lot of the Democratic votes he gets here and will have to rely on gaining Republican leaning ones to get him through. Not impossible, but it's not that easy either.

Well, it's not OK/KY, but it swung right about as hard as Ohio did in 2016 and Republicans picked up a bunch of overlapping and nearby state legislative seats this year.  I think this areas is pretty gone for Dems going forward.

As far as I can tell Republicans only picked up Van Drew's old state senate seat and the assembly districts, not "a bunch of overlapping and nearby state legislative seats". Three seats is not "a bunch" and that particular area has been traditionally Republican for quite a while.