In what early state does Sanders have the best chance at winning?
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  In what early state does Sanders have the best chance at winning?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: In what early state does Sanders have the best chance of winning?
#1
Iowa		  
#2
New Hampshire		  
#3
Nevada		  
#4
South Carolina		  
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Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: In what early state does Sanders have the best chance at winning?  (Read 352 times)
RGM2609
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« on: November 27, 2019, 11:32:44 AM »
Pretty self-explanatory
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20RP12
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2019, 11:33:50 AM »
NH seems most likely. Wouldn't rule out a late surge in IA or NV.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2019, 11:35:30 AM »
And what place would you think he gets in each of them?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2019, 11:42:06 AM »
I am going to be a bit more bold and say Nevada. Given how divided the field is and as no other candidate is a match for that state, I'd say that Sanders's natural base and his strenght over Latinos should be enough to put him over the top, especially if Buttigieg won IA and/or NH and has enough momentum to "steal" a considerable ammount of votes from Biden.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2019, 11:44:43 AM »
New Hampshire should be his best shot. Hard to see him winning Nevada if he loses New Hampshire.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2019, 12:00:46 PM »
Easily New Hampshire.
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ShamDam
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 12:02:23 PM »
While I think his momentum would likely be stunted if he lost both IA and NH, I agree that a "surprise" win in Nevada could be the big shakeup in the early states. Still, NH seems like the safest bet.

What's wild about the race right now is that I could see any of Biden, Sanders, or Warren sweeping those first three states, or getting shut out, or splitting the 3 among them...all of which would yield tremendously different results even though the delegate counts could be similar.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2019, 12:14:45 PM »
He will win New Hampshire and Nevada, but lose Iowa to Buttigieg and South Carolina to Biden, ending third and second respectively in both states.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2019, 12:56:26 PM »
Hot take: Nevada
You cannot seriously tell me Sanders is getting clobbered with old people and yet can win a state with an older electorate like NH. Nevada is younger and has lots of hispanics which seem to be his best group.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2019, 01:45:55 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 27, 2019, 12:56:26 PM
Hot take: Nevada
You cannot seriously tell me Sanders is getting clobbered with old people and yet can win a state with an older electorate like NH. Nevada is younger and has lots of hispanics which seem to be his best group.
Agreed. Warren seems the best fit for NH given her base being older liberals, and Sanders the best one for Nevada.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2019, 07:17:05 PM »
New Hampshire will probably be his only chance.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2019, 08:58:51 PM »
New Hampshire for sure.

1) There are a lot of working class democrats.

2) He's also from New England.

3) They seem to like to put a check on the Iowa winner when the field is split like this, and he probably won't win Iowa.

His second best shot would be in Nevada.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2019, 09:06:44 PM »
New Hampshire
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2019, 10:36:19 PM »
Nevada.

Lots of WWC voters he can get, along with the in-roads he has with Hispanic voters, and the Caucus nature of the primary in the state.

He has to contend with Warren for NH, herself also a good fit...and not just because of the neighboring state effect.
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