NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead

[MT Treasurer]

Trump approval: 42/53 (-11)
Trump impeachment: 47% support, 44% oppose
Sununu approval: 49/30 (+19)

[MT Treasurer]

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s

It’s not unreasonable to assume that NH has trended further away from Trump than most other (actual) swing states given the state's demographics and actual polling we’ve seen.

Hopefully this will put an end to the inane "Trump can win NH/NV even if he loses MI/WI/PA" hot takes, but who am I kidding? We all know that it won’t.

[MT Treasurer]

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.

I agree with all of this. Even the rural trends are more ambiguous than in any other swing state, and the fact that they couldn’t win it in 2016 when they prioritized it over WI/PA/MI speaks for itself.